8:15 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Seahawks -3.5, Total: 43.5
Thursday Night Football concludes its 2024 run with a trip to the Windy City, as the struggling Chicago Bears look to salvage what is left of their campaign in this visit from the slumping Seattle Seahawks, who are simply trying to keep their fading postseason hopes alive. With two games left in the first season of the Mike Macdonald era, the best way to describe the Seahawks (8-7, 2nd in NFC West) has been uneven. After winning their first three games under the youngest head coach in the league, these birds went into a tailspin with five losses in their next six outings, dropping below .500 before their bye week. However, they would emerge from that respite reinvigorated with four consecutive victories to ascend to the top of the division at 8-5, only for a pair of losses to playoff-caliber opponents to clip their wings once more. So, what in the name of Steve Largent is going on in the pacific northwest, you ask? Well, even with a completely different coaching staff at the helm, many of the same issues that had plagued Seattle last season are doing so once again, as a one-dimensional offense continues to be less the sum of its parts. Simply put, given their talent at the skill positions, this is an attack that has performed well below expectations; you would be hard-pressed to find a more imposing receiving corps with the likes of (veteran Wideouts) D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett buoyed by emerging sophomore, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while the tandem of (Tailbacks) Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet pack a punch out of the backfield. Furthermore, (veteran Quarterback) Geno Smith has proven to be more than a capable passer from the pocket, adept at making a variety of throws to all three levels of the field. However, when you add it all up, this unit has very much resided in the middle of the pack, ranking fifteenth in points (22.6) and fourteenth in total yards (336.4), while struggling from a situational perspective on third down (36.6%) and in the red zone (55.3%). Even with (new Offensive Coordinator) Ryan Grubb making the leap from the collegiate level (Washington), the same problem as persisted with this group, which lies in their approach. Simply put, the Seahawks do NOT have a strong pass-protecting offensive line, yet they have been very pass-heavy in 2024; the offense ranks sixth in passes attempted (36.2) and fourth in passing yards (266.4), while the ground game has lagged behind at 22.3 carries per game (29th Overall) for 91.9 yards (30th Overall). This volume hasn’t spelled success for Smith (pictured below), who has tossed seventeen touchdowns in comparison to fifteen interceptions thus far, with the unit as a whole operating with a turnover differential of -7, which ranks twenty-sixth in the NFL. A more balanced approach would alleviate the pressure on the offensive line, while sustaining more success on the ground would allow Grubb to incorporate more play-action, which would benefit Smith, who is carrying too much of the load. This was the case with last weekend’s debilitating 27-24 defeat at home to the Vikings, whose aggressive, blitzing defense really made life hard on the veteran QB. Even with the return of a healthy Walker, who missed the previous two games due to injury, the hosts carried the ball just FIFTEEN times for a pedestrian fifty-nine yards, despite the game being tightly contested throughout the evening. Instead, Smith was forced to shoulder the burden again, completing 31-of-43 throws for 314 yards and three touchdowns, but also two interceptions, including his final attempt, a deep shot to Metcalf in which he couldn’t get much on the ball due to intense pressure bearing down on him. Trailing 20-17 midway through the final stanza, the 34-year-old led the birds on an 11-play, 68-yard drive concluding with a short score to (Tight End) A.J. Barner, taking the lead for the first time. However, after Minnesota marched downfield to take the lead right back, the home side stalled out as Smith was sacked for a large loss, leading Macdonald to trot out (veteran Kicker) Jason Myers to attempt a 60-yard field goal that fell short of the uprights. When it was all over, Seattle was ultimately done in by their own mistakes, losing the turnover battle 0-2, converting just 2-of-10 on third down, and losing seventy-seven yards due to penalties. Smith was sacked twice and hit on eight occasions, with the effects of said pressure becoming more noticeable as the game dragged on.
From a betting perspective, the Seahawks may be 8-7 straight-up thus far, but they haven’t been as rewarding against the spread (6-8-1), parlaying to a net loss of 2.55 units. This is a team that appeared to finally have found their footing with four straight SUATS victories, though have cooled off once again with back-to-back losses on both fronts, including last weekend’s late loss at home to the Vikings (+2.5). It should be noted that tonight’s trip to Soldier Filed marks their first tilt as a favorite since October 6th. Since Macdonald took over the team, Seattle is a stellar 4-1-1 ATS away from the pacific northwest, 1-2-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 2-4 ATS when coming off a SU loss, 1-1 ATS following back-to-back defeats, and 3-6-1 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, these birds have covered FOURTEEN of their last sixteen outings in the months of December and January when coming off consecutive losses, while covering four straight ventures away from Lumen Field. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is a mediocre 12-13 on Thursday Night Football, including 5-5 ATS as a road favorite, while losing their previous appearance on this stage, a 36-24 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers back in early October. As for Smith, he is 19-15-1 ATS on the road, 11-17-1 ATS as a favorite, 10-9 ATS after consecutive SU losses, and 23-27-1 versus non-division opponents. Looking at this particular matchup, the Seahawks own an 11-8 edge in the all-time series, though have dropped each of the last two meetings with their last victory occurring back in 2015. When these teams last crossed paths, Seattle blew a 10-point advantage in the fourth quarter en route to suffering a 25-24 defeat at home, conceding the game-winning touchdown and two-point conversion with just over a minute left to play. Perhaps the issue was that the hosts scored a little too quickly, racking up 331 total yards, including a whopping 170 on the ground, despite possessing the ball for a paltry 21:42 of game time. Metcalf hauled in a 41-yard touchdown strike from (former QB) Russell Wilson to open their ledger in the first quarter, though caught only one more pass the rest of the way for zero yards. A missed 39-yard field goal courtesy of the aforementioned Myers in the wintry conditions helped breathe life into the Bears, who ended the affair scoring eleven unanswered points. Over the course of his career, Smith has faced Chicago only once, a 27-19 loss from his sophomore campaign with the Jets back in 2014, in which he completed 26-of-43 throws for 316 yards, a touchdown and a pair of interceptions. It should be noted that he has NEVER won on a Thursday night (0-7), posting as many touchdowns as turnovers (8). The public doesn’t appear to be reading into any of that, folks, as roughly 59% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are favoring the birds, while a much larger share of the overall money being wagered (75%) has followed suit. On the injury front, Macdonald has six different players languishing on injured reserve, including (Offensive Linemen) Anthony Bradford and George Fant, while the rest of the team appears to be relatively healthy. With that being said, Walker is a late scratch after departing last week’s game with a tweaked ankle, while Smith’s mobility was noticeably compromised in that loss to Minnesota, a week after being replaced by Sam Howell in the game prior against the Packers. With that being said, the veteran is expected to gut it through the pain on this short turnaround. Looking ahead, the Seahawks will close out the regular season in the City of Angels against the Rams, which depending on the outcome of this week’s games, will decide the victor of the NFC West.
Meanwhile, what the Bears (4-11, 4th in NFC North) would give to be in the shoes of their opponent? Needless to say, it has been an extremely painful campaign for the denizens of the Windy City, even by their recent standards. For the second time in three years, Chicago will finish last in the division, while missing the playoffs for a fourth straight season. What truly makes this hard to swallow is how promising their prospects were just a few months ago. Coming into 2024, Da Bears were a trendy pick to not only qualify for the playoffs, but also challenge in the loaded NFC North, thanks in large part to a whirlwind offseason in which they added a wealth of pieces via trade and free agency, while appearing to have struck gold with multiple notable selections in the NFL Draft, including (number one overall pick) Caleb Williams. On paper, this was a team that looked as if they were ready to make a massive leap in their development with the potential to contend deep into the season, which they did for about seven weeks before the bottom inexplicably fell out from under them. Believe it or not, this team began the season on a 4-2 tear, with Williams (pictured below) exhibiting rapid growth and a strong defense proving to be very opportunistic (13 takeaways). However, an 18-15 defeat at Washington in which (Head Coach) Matt Eberflus’ troops conceded a miraculous hail may as time expired has thus sent them on a streak of NINE consecutive defeats, a stretch marred by bad breaks, boneheaded turnovers, questionable time management, and good old-fashioned internal strife. Not long after (former Offensive Coordinator) Shane Waldron was relieved of his playcalling duties, Eberflus was fired as well, forcing (QB Coach) Thomas Brown to ascend to the head position in a span of just a few weeks. As a result, these Bears have lacked direction and cohesiveness on both sides of the football; the offense has scored over twenty points just once, averaging a paltry 15.0 points on just 289.8 yards, while the defense has shipped 26.7 points, including 30+ in each of their last three outings, on a dreadful 404.2 total yards. As for Williams, he appears to have hit the proverbial rookie wall of late, completing 60.1% of his throws for 217.1 yards on a dismal 5.48 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns and zero interceptions. While the lack of picks has been encouraging, the 2022 Heisman still has a habit of holding onto the football longer than he should, eschewing higher percentage completions on short to intermediate routes in an attempt to hunt for bigger plays downfield. He could get away with that in college, folks, but not in the NFL, which has led to a league-high SIXTY sacks, including FORTY during this losing streak with four lost fumbles along the way. Last weekend’s 34-17 loss at home to the Lions only served to prolong his and the team’s misery, as the visitors raced out to an early 20-0 lead and never looked back, showing why there is such a gulf between the two rivals. Brown’s troops managed to inflict 382 total yards of offense on Detroit’s decimated defense, with Williams throwing for 334 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 26-of-40 passing, but lost one of the team’s fumbles, which only served to fuel their opponent’s high-powered attack. When it was all said and done, Chicago’s beleaguered defense was torched for 475 total yards on twenty-seven first downs, including 146 yards on the ground, while proving completely unable to get off the field in shipping a 7-of-12 success rate on third down. There has been a lot of discourse that the Lions’ OC, Ben Johnson, was putting together a dress rehearsal for his inevitable interview to become the Bears’ next skipper this Spring, and while it remains to be seen if he will indeed be that guy, it is clear that this team needs a bright, offensive-minded individual to develop Williams into the franchise QB that this team has been searching decades for.
From a betting perspective, the Bears may be a disappointing 4-11 straight-up, but they haven’t been as costly against the spread (7-7-1), parlaying to a small net loss of 0.64 units. This is a group that has performed a complete 180 since getting off to that promising 4-2 start (5-1 ATS), as they have since failed to cover all but three of their contests during this 9-game losing streak (2-6-1 ATS). Since Brown took over as primary playcaller for the offense, the club is 2-3-1 versus the spread, including 1-1-1 ATS at Soldier Field, 2-3-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-3-1 ATS following a SU defeat, 1-3 ATS after suffering back-to-back losses, and 0-1 ATS versus opponents residing outside of the NFC North. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for Chicago is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog of 0.5-3.5 points, with tonight’s line clocking in at just below that threshold. As for Williams, the rookie is 5-2-1 ATS at home, 4-6-1 ATS as a dog, 2-6-1 ATS after a SU loss, 3-4-1 ATS when coming off of consecutive defeats, and 5-5 ATS versus non-division opposition. Dating back to 1990, this is a franchise that is 9-17 ATS on Thursday nights, including 2-2 ATS as a home dog. This marks the second time this season that they have competed on this particular day of the week, narrowly meeting defeat on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit, which as we well know, cost Eberflus his job. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bears may trail the all-time series against the Seahawks (11-8), but they have taken each of the last two meetings, including that aforementioned rally at Lumen Field back in 2022. There really isn’t a whole lot to glean from this affair in relation to tonight’s tilt given that so few of those players are still on the team, along with the coaching staff, which has been completely turned over. Chicago trailed by as many as ten points throughout the game, only for (veteran QB) Nik Foles to ignite a furious comeback; after (veteran Kicker) Cairo Santos’ 35-yard field goal cut the deficit to seven points, Foles engineered an 80-yard drive in just six plays, aided by a roughing of the passer penalty, eventually finding (former Tight End) Jimmy Graham for a 15-yard touchdown. Rather than tie the game, the visitors went for the win as Foles found (unheralded Wideout) Damiere Byrd for the two-point conversion to earn the victory. (Tight End) Cole Kmet, who was a rookie that season, hauled in four of five targets for forty-nine yards. The public isn’t confident that we’ll see a repeat tonight, folks, as just 41% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the hosts, while a much smaller share of the total money changing hands (25%) thinks that Williams & Co are indeed COOKED. On the injury front, Brown and his coaching staff have ten players sitting on injured reserve, including (veteran Defensive Tackle) Andrew Billings and (young Safety) Jaquan Brisker. Furthermore, (Offensive Tackles) Teven Jenkins (calf) and Braxton Jones (concussion) along with (Cornerback) Jayln Johnson (illness) are listed as questionable on this short turnaround. Looking ahead, the Bears will finish this disappointing campaign next week with their annual pilgrimage to Lambeau Field, where the Packers will be looking to sweep the season series for a sixth straight year.