4:30 PM EST, NFL Network – Spread: Bengals -3.5, Total: 49.5
The penultimate weekend of the 2024 regular season marches on as a pair of playoff hopefuls clash this evening in Southern Ohio, as the Denver Broncos look to officially snap an 8-year postseason drought, while the resilient Cincinnati Bengals are simply looking to remain alive in the hunt for January. After an uneven first season in which he spent much of his time weeding out those who didn’t fit into his vision for the franchise, the fruits of (Head Coach) Sean Payton’s labor have been readily apparent in year two, as the Broncos (9-6, 3rd in AFC West) are on the verge of snapping the second-longest playoff drought in the NFL. Indeed, there really wasn’t any doubt that the 60-year-old would manage to turn Denver around, particularly given his stellar CV; Payton owns a personal portfolio of 169-104 (.619) over the course of his seventeen seasons with the Saints and the ponies, including nine postseason appearances, seven division titles, and a Lombardi Trophy from Super Bowl XLIV. So, how has he managed to set things right in Mile High, you ask? Well, there have been two very notable changes in direction for the Broncos, with the first being at quarterback. Payton spent much of his first year with the team seemingly at odds with (former QB) Russell Wilson, who apart from performing well below his previous standards, cost the team a wealth of assets and money to acquire, ultimately leading to a parting of ways between the two parties as the franchise took one of the largest cap hits in NFL history to hasten his exit ($87 million!). In turn, Payton opted to find the solution in a draft that was ripe with premium talent at that position, selecting (Oregon product) Bo Nix twelfth overall last Spring. Possessing a wealth of experience as a 5-year starter at two different schools, the 24-year-old has grown into the job over the course of the campaign, completing 64.3% of his throws for an average of 215.7 yards on 5.77 net yards per attempt, with twenty-two touchdowns in comparison to eleven interceptions, a QBR of 53.1 and three fourth quarter comebacks to boot, while also proving to be a mobile weapon out of the pocket with 352 rushing yards and four more scores. Over the past eight outings, the field has really opened up for Nix (pictured below), who has begun to air it out more often with 248.6 yards on an improved 6.57 net yards per pass, seventeen touchdowns and six picks. The other factor in the Broncos’ success has been the rapid growth of a stingy young defense that has yielded the fourth-fewest points in the league (18.7). It’s ironic that (Defensive Coordinator) Vance Joseph, who spent two seasons as the team’s head coach from 2017 to 2018, returned to ignite this renaissance in the Rocky Mountains, but his work in retooling this youthful group has been commendable. Hell, this unit even scores touchdowns, with five on the season, including three in the last three games. (All-Pro Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best in the business with four interceptions, eleven deflected passes, and a score to his name, while (third-year Linebacker) Nik Bonitto has developed into a legitimate playmaker with 11.5 sacks, fourteen tackles for loss, a fumble return for a touchdown and an interception return to the house. With that being said, that defense capitulated in a major way in last Thursday night’s 34-27 loss at the Chargers. Denver led 24-13 early in the second half, only to ship TWENTY-ONE unanswered points, while their own attack lost all semblance of rhythm in the process. This was a tale of two halves, folks, as Payton’s troops breached the end zone on each of their first three drives of the night, each of which encompassing at least seventy yards. However, they would go on to punt on five of their final seven possessions, with (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz breaking the monotony with a pair of field goals. When it was all said and done, the visitors stood toe-to-toe with the bolts statistically, though simply lacked the big plays that the hosts managed to produce. (Opposing QB) Justin Herbert completed five passes of 17+ yards in the second half, while three defensive penalties helped facilitate the second of the three touchdown drives. Then, on the third, Herbert scrambled sixteen yards down the right sideline on a third-and-10 deep in his own territory, immediately followed by a back-breaking 43-yard haunt courtesy of Gus Edwards. Two plays later, and Herbert let loose a 34-yard touchdown to stretch the lead to ten points. Nix played well with 263 passing yards and a pair of scores on 29-of-40 throws, while (Rookie Tailback) Audric Estime finally got some work with forty-eight yards and a touchdown on nine carries. That loss carried heavy postseason implications, as Los Angeles leapfrogged over Denver within the wild card hierarchy, meaning that Payton & Co must win one of their final two remaining games in order to get back to the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be a solid 9-6 straight-up thus far, but there hasn’t been a more consistently rewarding bet against the spread (11-4), parlaying to a net profit of 6.0 units. One of a small handful of teams to put together multiple streaks of three or more covers, they recently saw a run of FIVE straight ATS victories snapped in last Thursday’s collapse at Los Angeles (+3). Under the direction of Payton, this is a franchise that is 17-14-1 versus the spread since his arrival last season, including 8-7 ATS away from Mile High, 7-9 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 4-0 ATS when coming off at least nine days of rest, 7-4 ATS following a SU defeat, and 11-9 ATS versus all opponents residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, he is 5-8 ATS as a road underdog, while covering five consecutive contests against teams with a losing record. Denver has covered ELEVEN of their last twelve games within the months of December and January after suffering a double-digit ATS loss to a division opponent and have covered SEVEN straight outings immediately following an appearance on Thursday Night Football, which includes their 28-14 win over the Panthers back in late October (-13.5). They are also 8-2 ATS in their last ten tilts preceding a date with the Chiefs, whom they take on in next weekend’s finale. As for Nix, the rookie is 6-2 ATS on the road thus far and 4-2 as a dog away from Empower Field, while covering three out of four games after facing a division rival. Looking at this particular matchup, the Broncos lead the all-time series between these franchises 22-11, winning three of the last five meetings. With that being said, they came up short in the most recent crossing of paths, a narrow 15-10 defat at home three years ago. This one was a defensive struggle throughout the affair, with a combined four field goals (three coming from 50+ yards) accounting for points. However, the hosts finally took the lead on the strength of a 25-yard touchdown pass from (former QB) Drew Lock to (former WR) Tim Patrick, only for Cincinnati to strike right back with a 56-yard score just two plays later. When it was all said and done, both sides were held below 300 total yards and twenty first downs, with Denver mustering 292 yards, including 133 of the rushing variety, though committed the lone turnover of the day, a crucial strip sack of Lock deep in enemy territory early int he fourth quarter. (Veteran Tailback) Javonte Williams rushed for seventy-two yards on fifteen carries, while (veteran Wideout) Courtland Sutton caught just two of his seven targets for a dozen yards. Given the direction that these teams are traveling in, the public is understandably split right down the middle with roughly 50% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread favoring the ponies. However, a much larger share of the overall money changing hands (66%) is backing Payton & Co to clinch a playoff spot in Southern Ohio. On the injury front, this has been one of the healthiest teams int he NFL this season, with just three players sitting on injured reserve at the moment, while (Backup Tailback) Jaleel McLaughlin (quadriceps) and (Sophomore Cornerback) Riley Moss (knee) are both likely to miss yet another game due to their respective ailments. The latter, who has emerged as a key component of arguably the best young Secondary in the league, has missed the last three games after suffering a sprained MCL against the Raiders. Looking ahead, the Broncos are playoff bound with a win today, though it could be difficult to see things through if they fail to do so, as a visit from the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Chiefs is up net, though it should be noted that Kansas City may clinch the number one overall seed beforehand and opt to sit key personnel in the finale.
Meanwhile, the Bengals (7-8, 3rd in AFC North) are simply hoping to win out and receive a little bit of help along the way in order to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Indeed, Cincinnati needs to beat both Denver and Pittsburgh in successive weeks while needing their opponent tonight to lose each of their final two contests, along with the Colts and Dolphins each dropping at least one of their final outings. That is what it has come to in Southern Ohio, where these cats are on the verge of completing a terribly uneven campaign highlighted by the most prolific passing attack in the NFL, though marred by one of the league’s worst defenses. So, what in the name of Ken Anderson has happened in Cincy, you ask? Well, after injuries curtailed his 2023 campaign, (veteran Quarterback) Joe Burrow made it a point to come back stronger than ever, undergoing a targeted offseason program that has paid MAJOR dividends; the 28-year-old leads the NFL in passes attempted (557) and completed (384), passing yards (4,229), passing touchdowns (39), and yards per game (8), all the while posting a career-best QBR of 74.2. Last weekend he became the fourth player in league history to toss three or more touchdowns in seven consecutive contests a single campaign, while sitting alongside Tom Brady as the only other QB to do so on as many occasions while passing for 300+ yards to boot. Buoyed by (All-Pro Wideout) Ja’Marr Chase, who leads the NFL in receptions (108), receiving yards (1,510), and receiving scores (16), Burrow (pictured below alongside Chase) spearheads an offense that no team wants to see in the playoffs. However, as strong as the attack has been this season, the defense has regressed to the opposite end of the spectrum, keeping this team from reaching the heights that many predicted they would be coming into September. (Longtime Defensive Coordinator) Lou Anarumo has put together some solid units during his time in Cincinnati, but a combination of injuries, inexperience, and an utter lack of depth has spelled disaster on this side of the football. The Bengals rank twenty-eighth in both points allowed (26.2) and total defense (359.9), including twenty-sixth against the pass (231.6) and twenty-first versus the run (128.3), twenty-sixth on third down (43.2%), and next-to-last in the red zone (67.3%). Furthermore, all but one of their losses have come by one possession, with three of them by three points or less, while four have come despite receiving 27+ points or 400+ yards from the offense. Seriously, folks, this is a group that ranks eighth in takeaways (23) with the league’s leading sack artist, Trey Hendrickson (13.5 sacks, 44 pressures), consistently wreaking havoc in the trenches. It’s no coincidence that their recent 3-game win streak has come against three of the worst offenses in the NFL, shipping 17.6 points per contest to the likes of the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns. In last weekend’s return leg versus Cleveland, (Head Coach) Zac Taylor’s troops squatted on their decimated rivals to the north, relegating them to 273 total yards on eighteen first downs, a combined 4-of-15 on third and fourth down, with five sacks, and three takeaways. (Safeties) Jordan Battle and Geno Stone each snared an interception, while (Rookie Defensive Tackle) Kris Jenkins racked up a pair of sacks. Burrow completed an efficient 23-of-30 throws for 252 yards and three touchdowns, the first to (veteran Wideout) Tee Higgins despite releasing the ball just before he hit the turf with his body in a near horizontal position, with the third being a 32-yard strike to Chase on a busted play. Higgins hauled in eight of eleven targets for fifty-eight yards, while Chase reeled in six receptions on eight targets for ninety-seven yards, with (emerging Sophomore Tailback) Chase Brown amassing 109 yards from scrimmage on twenty-one touches.
From a betting perspective, the Bengals may be 7-8 straight-up thus far, but they too have been a more rewarding side against the spread (9-6), parlaying to a net profit of 2.18 units, which is a welcome sight given how slowly they started. Indeed, this is a team that has been accustomed to sluggish starts over the last few years, posting a mediocre 6-6 record ATS, until finding their rhythm with three consecutive covers coming into today’s contest. Under the leadership of Taylor, this is a franchise that is 57-42-5 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2019, including 22-23 ATS at Paycor Stadium, 28-20 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 26-18 ATS following a SU victory, and 41-23 ATS versus all opponents residing outside of the AFC North. That last bit is interesting, folks, as Cincinnati is 28-11 SU and 28-9-2 ATS over their last thirty-nine non-division outings, including 15-7 SU and 16-5-1 ATS when those opponents are above .500. As for Burrow, the prolific QB is 15-15 ATS at home, 25-17 ATS as a favorite, 24-15 ATS following a SU win, 13-9 ATS after back-to-back SU victories, and 32-15 ATS against non-division opposition. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for this is a team that has failed to cover four straight games (0-3-1) as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 points. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bengals trail the Broncos in the all-time series 22-11, though have taken two of the last meetings, both of which were coincidentally a Mile High. That aforementioned 15-10 affair wasn’t much to write home about for either side, but it is the most relevant from Cincy’s perspective, given that there are many prominent figures leftover from that tilt. As we covered earlier, this one was a slog for most of the evening, as (young Kicker) Evan McPherson was solely responsible for his team’s point total with three field goals in the first three quarters to give the visitors a 9-3 advantage. However, after shipping a touchdown to lose the lead, Burrow came to the rescue with a 56-yard bomb to (former Receiver) Tyler Boyd to retake the lead, though the ensuing two-point conversion attempt would fail. Cincinnati’s defense took care of business the rest of the way, halting the hosts on each of their final three drives, including a key strip sack and recovery courtesy of (former Defensive Lineman) Khalid Kareem at his team’s 11-yard line. When it was all said and done, Taylor’s charges could muster only 249 total yards of offense, with a dozen first downs, and a 4-of-13 third down conversions. Burrow completed 15-of-22 passes for 157 yards and that score to Boyd, while Chase and Higgins were largely quiet with a combined twenty-six yards on three receptions. On the injury front, these cats have been hard in this regard in 2024, with THIRTEEN different players languishing on injured reserve, including (Offensive Linemen) Trent Brown, Jaxson Kirkland, and D’Ante Smith, (Defensive Backs) Daxton Hill and D.J. Turner, (Linebacker) Logan Wilson, and the aforementioned McPherson. Furthermore, (Defensive Linemen) Sam Hubbard (knee) and Sheldon Rankins (illness) are both expected to miss today’s game with various maladies, while the likes of (Left Tackle) Orlando Brown Jr is listed as questionable as he continues to struggle with a tender fibula that has cost him six of the last seven games. Looking ahead, if the Bengals manage to remain alive after today’s affair, then they will need to prove victorious in their annual pilgrimage to Pittsburgh to battle the Steelers in the finale if they wish to have any hope of sneaking into the playoffs.