4:25 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Vikings -1, Total: 48.5
With the regular season almost finished, there is still plenty to be decided in terms of playoff positioning, which brings us to this evening’s renewal of acquaintances between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings in an affair that will go a long way towards deciding the postseason seeding within the NFC. Just as they did a year ago, the Packers (11-4, 3rd in NFC North) are finding their stride at the right time, winning four out of five contests since their bye week. After an uneven start to the campaign in which (young Quarterback) Jordan Love missed some time due to a strained MCL, Green Bay is showing signs of being the Super Bowl contender that many predicted that they would become. However, the issue is that as good as they have been, (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur’s troops continue to trail the Lions and Vikings within their own division, who both sit at 12-2 jockeying for home field in the playoffs. With that being said, these cheeseheads proved that they could win on the road last January, embarrassing the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend before giving the 49ers everything they could handle a week later in Santa Clara. So, what in the name of Bart Starr has gotten in the Packers, you ask? Well, the offense is balanced and multifaceted, while the defense is vastly improved under the direction of (new Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley. Let’s start with the former Boston College skipper, shall we? LaFleur was unhappy with his team’s lack of takeaways a year ago (18), so he tabbed Hafley from the collegiate ranks to spur a turnaround in this regard, which has reaped plenty of rewards with TWENTY-EIGHT turnovers forced thus far (3rd Overall), including at least three in five of their first six games. As for the attack, Love (pictured below alongside LaFleur) has gotten healthy and has thus been terrifying for opposing defenses, completing an efficient 66.4% of his throws for 219.9 yards on a healthy 9.09 net yards per attempt, with nine touchdowns opposed to just one interception during this latest stretch of six contests. (Veteran Tailback) Josh Jacobs has also played a heavy role in their success on this side of the football, amassing 111.0 yards from scrimmage and ten scores during this run, looking reborn after a down season with Las Vegas last year. The 2022 rushing champion has been a huge addition in free agency, rushing for 1,216 yards on 4.4 yards per carry and thirteen touchdowns thus far, while serving as a factor in the passing game to boot, hauling in thirty-five receptions for another 340 yards and one more score. The Cheeseheads kept on rolling in last Monday night’s 34-0 drubbing of the decimated Saints, which was about as one-sided a game as you’ll find in the NFL these days. The Packers scored on six of their eight possessions of the night, all of which traveled at least forty-seven yards and taking early three minutes off the clock. Each of their first three drives resulted in touchdowns, while Hafley’s defense forced either a takeaway or a turnover on downs on four their opponent’s nine possessions. In the end, the hosts outgained New Orleans 404-196 in total yards, 188-67 in rushing yards, 24-14 in first downs, and possessed the football for a commanding 37:13 of game time. Love completed 16-of-28 passes for 182 yards and a short strike to (young Receiver) Dontayvion Wicks to open their ledger, while three different Tailbacks breached the end zone, including Jacobs who amassed 107 yards from scrimmage in the first half before coming off with an apparent stinger. The defense logged three sacks, while (young Safety) Zayne Anderson got the first interception of his career. (Rookie Linebacker) Edgerrin Cooper, who has really come on over the last month, led the team with ten tackles, including one for loss.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may be 11-4 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (8-6-1), parlaying to a net profit of 1.27 units. Despite their recent run of form (4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games), this is a team that has managed to win three times without the covering the spread, while pushing another for good measure, with those four contests decided by a combined nine points. Under the leadership of LaFleur, this is a franchise that a stellar is 61-43-1 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2019, including 28-22-1 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 24-12-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 22-12-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 39-29-1 following a SU victory, and 19-14-1 ATS versus opposition residing within the NFC North. Furthermore, he is 6-2 ATS as an underdog coming off of a SU double-digit win and 11-3-1 ATS on the road versus an opponent coming off back-to-back SU victories. Green Bay is 11-4-1 ATS against division opponent coming off consecutive SU wins, though have failed to cover SEVEN straight contests as dogs following a double-digit ATS victory. It should also be noted that the Cheeseheads have dropped seven straight outings ATS after shipping ten or fewer points before facing a division rival. As for Love, he is 7-8-1 ATS on the road, 8-7-1 ATS as a dog, 6-2-1 ATS with revenge, 9-7-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, 3-5-1 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 3-5-1 ATS versus the rest of the NFC North. Looking at this particular matchup, the Packers own a 66-59-3 edge in the all-time series between these longtime adversaries, including though they have alternated wins over the past five seasons, with the most recent being a 31-29 affair at Lambeau Field back in late September. This one was an odd game for a variety of reasons, none more so than for its sloppy nature as the two sides combined for SEVEN turnovers on the afternoon. Love, who made his return following a two-game absence due to a sprained MCL suffered in the opener in Brazil, was intercepted three times, including twice within the first four possessions. Coupled with a pair of missed field goals and a turnover on downs, and LaFleur was pulling his hair out as the hosts fell behind 28-0, before finally breaking through with a 15-yard touchdown from Love to (young Wideout) Jayden Reed prior to halftime. As Hafley’s defense buckled down in the second half, relegating Minnesota to just three points, Love & Co began to heat up with three more touchdowns of their own, all coming courtesy of the young QB, with a successful two-point conversion cutting the deficit to two points. Unfortunately, the home side simply ran out of time, as the Northmen recovered the ensuing onside kick, ending an eventful contest. Green Bay racked up 465 total yards on twenty-four first downs despite converting a dismal 4-of-14 on third and fourth down. Love completed 32-of-54 passes for 389 yards and four scores, though those three interceptions spoiled what was otherwise a stellar return to the gridiron. Reed hauled in seven of eight targets for 139 yards and that touchdown, while the aforementioned Wicks reeled a pair of scores of his own along with five catches for seventy-eight yards. As for Jacobs, the veteran rusher amassed seventy-eight yards from scrimmage on thirteen touches. Defensively, (veteran Safety) Xavier McKinney, who leads the league with seven interceptions, logged his fourth of the campaign. The public appears to have liked what they saw in that one, folks, as roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread are sporting green and gold, while a comparable share of the total sum of money changing hands has followed suit. Over the course of his career, Love is 1-2 versus the Vikings as a starter, completing 62.8% of his throws with nine total touchdowns and four turnovers. On the injury front, this is a team that is getting healthy at the right time, with just four players on injured reserve, though (former Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander is not expected to finally return to the field after missing the last six games with a bulky knee. However, (young Linebacker) Quay Walker and (Defensive Back) Javon Bullard are likely to be out with ankle sprains. Looking ahead, the Packers are locked into the second wild card and will conclude the regular season as they return to Lambeau for their annual visit from the struggling Bears, who have lost NINE games in a row.
Meanwhile, the Vikings (13-2, 2nd in NFC North) have been one of the most surprising stories in the NFL this season, competing for home field in the NFC despite facing early adversity. Projected by many to finish last in the division in what was wholly expected to be a rebuilding season, Minnesota has proved the pundits wrong on a multitude of fronts. Remember, this is a franchise that selected a quarterback in the first round of last Spring’s draft too, trading up to pick (Michigan product) J.J. McCarthy tenth overall. Unfortunately, McCarthy suffered a full tear of his right meniscus midway through the preseason, ending his rookie campaign before it could even begin. Stepping up to replace his young teammate was the man who was brought in to serve as a bridge option, (veteran Quarterback) Sam Darnold, who has absolutely THRIVED in his first season in Minneapolis. Simply put, there hasn’t been a better story within a story than the resurrection of Darnold (pictured below), who has completely rewritten the narrative of his career; drafted third overall in the 2018 Draft by the Jets, the USC product was effectively run out of New York after a disappointing three-year run, winding up with the Panthers where he was eventually benched after a similar rough stretch. Granted, neither of those franchises did right by their QB, making it difficult to discern how much of his struggles were of his own accord. As such, Darnold spent last season as a backup in San Francisco under Kyle Shanahan, where he rebuilt himself into a different passer altogether in lieu of hitting free agency last Spring. Now in Minnesota, the 27-year-old finds himself in an excellent situation, with (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell’s system very similar to that of his former skipper, with the talent around him making it possible to flourish. As a result, Darnold has posted career-highs in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (67.2%), passing yards per game (251.7) and touchdowns (32), with five game-winning drives and a triumvirate of fourth quarter comebacks to boot. Operating on a one-year deal, it will be fascinating what (General Manager) Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell do in the offseason, particularly given the status of McCarthy, who needed a second surgery to repair his knee months ago. Do they franchise him? Do they get into a bidding war in free agency? Either way, this guy is set to make himself A LOT of money. QB-needy teams have been given plenty to think about this Fall, including last weekend’s clutch 27-24 victory at Seattle. Leading 17-14 at halftime, the two sides exchanged field goals in third quarter, before the birds struck with an 11-play, 68-yad drive that breached the end zone to take the lead. However, the Northmen responded with a touchdown of their own on the ensuing possession, as Darnold hit (All-Pro Wideout) Justin Jefferson for a clutch 39-yard touchdown to retake the lead. From there, the Seahawks attempted a 60-yard field goal that fell short of the sticks, before (third-year Safety) Theo Jackson called game with an interception of Geno Smith deep in the host’s territory with just under a minute left. When it was all said and done, the Vikings were outgained 361-298 in total yards, and struggled with eighty-one rushing yards on twenty-four attempts, and converting just 3-of-13 attempts on third down. However, Darnold made the plays he had to, including a fourth-and-three on their opening touchdown drive, while (Defensive Coordinator) Brian Flores’ unit held their opponent to a meager fifty-nine yards rushing and 2-of-10 on third down, with a pair of sacks and two takeaways to wrestle control back to the visiting side. It was yet another close win for Minnesota, who have now won TENTY-THREE games that have been decided by one possession, the most i the league since O’Connell was hired two years ago.
From a betting perspective, the Vikings may be 13-2 straight-up this season, but they have also been very rewarding against the spread (10-4-1), parlaying to a net profit of 5.09 units. After winning and covering each of their first games of the campaign, this is a team that hit a bit of slag with just two covers in seven contests (2-4-1), only to snap out of it with three straight SUATS victories coming into this evening’s crucial clash. Under the direction of O’Connell, this is a franchise that is 25-21-4 ATS since he arrived back in 2022, including 12-14 ATS at U.S. Bank Stadium, 16-15-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 16-12-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 10-9 ATS when harboring revenge, 6-9-1 ATS against their fellow residents within the NFC North. Looking at this particular matchup, the Vikings trail the all-time series with the Packers (66-59-3), though have won three of the last five meetings, including that aforementioned 31-29 shootout at Lambeau Field from late September. The Northmen started fast and furious, scoring touchdowns on four of their first five drives of the afternoon, while as we detailed earlier, the hosts simply couldn’t get out of their own way. However, a 28-0 lead wasn’t enough for O’Connell & Co to sit comfortably, as Green Bay came roaring back with TWENTY-TWO unanswered points to cut the deficit to six. Fortunately, the visitors managed to drive deep enough to extend their lead to eleven via a 33-yard field goal courtesy of (young Kicker) Will Reichard, though the Cheeseheads would strike again with another touchdown to make it a 2-point game with under a minute left. It all came down to an onside kick, but to the relief of everyone in Minneapolis, the ball was recovered by the away team. When it was all said and done, the two sides accounted for SEVEN turnovers, including three from the Vikings, as Darnold tossed an interception and lost a fumble despite throwing for 275 yards and three touchdowns on an otherwise efficient 20-of-28 passing. (Former Packers Tailback) Aaron Jones relished the opportunity to compete against his former employers, amassing 139 yards from scrimmage on twenty-six touches, while Jefferson hauled in six of eight targets for eighty-five yards and a 14-yard touchdown. (Sophomore Receiver) Jordan Addison, who has really developed a strong rapport with Darnold, caught two scores to with seventy-two yards on three receptions. (Veteran Defensive Backs) Byron Murphy and Shaquil Griffin each logged an interception, with the former also coming up with a huge forced fumble, while (young Edge-Rusher) Patrick Jones IV was responsible for the lone sack of Love. Getting back to Darnold, he is 1-1 all-time versus the Packers, completing 69.8% of his throws for an average of 308.0 yards on a healthy 9.15 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to committing a pair of turnovers. On the injury front, O’Connell has eight different players sitting on injured reserve, including (standout Left Tackle) Christian Darrisaw and (young Linebacker) Ivan Pace, though the latter is designated to return. Furthermore, (young Cornerback) Fabian Moreau (hip) is out of action with an ailing hip, while (veteran Safety) Harrison Smith has been limited throughout the week of practice due to a lingering foot malady that sidelined him for the win over the Seahawks. Looking ahead, the Vikings will conclude their regular season with a trip to Ford Field to face the Lions, who own the tiebreaker between them due to a head-to-head defeat back in late October (31-29). If they manage to win this evening and best Detroit in that rematch, then Minnesota will be the number one seed in the NFC and own homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.