8:15 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Lions -3.5, Total: 50.5
The penultimate weekend of the regular season concludes with a rematch of last January’s NFC Championship Game, as the Detroit Lions look to tighten their grip on the conference’s top seed in their return to Santa Clara, where the decimated San Francisco 49ers have been reduced to the role of spoiler. Every season, there are a handful of teams that are hit particularly hard by injuries, with some persevering through the adversity while others simply collapse. Tonight’s affair features one of each, folks, as the Lions (13-2, 1st in NFC North) have continued their stellar pace despite losing a wealth of starters on the defensive side of the football. A year after winning their first division crown since 1993 and advancing to their first NFC Title Game since 1991, Detroit was on many a short list to compete in Super Bowl LIX, due in large part to a rapidly growing nucleus of talent coupled with the return of offensive and defense coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, who were both hot commodities on the coaching market. Indeed, (Head Coach) Dan Campbell has all the necessary ingredients to bring the Motor City its first Lombardi Trophy, though the road has become increasingly perilous with each passing week. Between the two sides of the ball, Glenn’s unit has suffered by far and away the most losses, with as many as SEVEN starters lost for the year. (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Aidan Hutchinson was leading the league in both sacks (7.5) and pressures (27) prior to suffering fractures to his tibia and fibula back in mid-October, before being joined by the likes of (fellow Defensive Linemen) Alim McNeil (knee), Marcus Davenport (elbow), and Derrick Barnes (knee), along with (Linebackers) Alex Anzalone (forearm) and Malcolm Rodriguez (knee), and (Cornerback) Carlton Davis (jaw). If that wasn’t bad enough, the unit’s depth has become a growing concern too, with six more reserves also landing on injured reserve. While we haven’t seen a serious statistical dip in their performance, these cats have definitely benefitted by facing some weaker offenses, though it should be noted that the two high-powered attacks that they encountered, that of Buffalo and Green Bay, they were torched for SEVENTY-NINE points and 857 total yards. If this was a litmus test for Campbell’s troops, then they’re going to have to resort to outscoring the opposition moving forward, which isn’t so problematic when consider the firepower that the Lions possess. With Johnson pulling the strings and (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff continuing this impressive second chapter to his career, Detroit ranks first in points scored (32.9), second in total yards (408.6), second in passing yards (264.7), sixth in rushing yards (143.8), fifth on third down (46.7%), and fourth in the red zone (67.7%). Goff (pictured below alongside Campbell) has posted career-highs in completion percentage (71.4%), touchdowns (33), yards per attempt (8.7), net yards per attempt (7.80), and QBR (66.4), surrounded by premium talent everywhere, from the backfield to the offensive line to the receiving corps. Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes have done a tremendous job of building this roster through the draft, with (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown (101 catches, 1,126 yards, 11 touchdowns), (Sophomore Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs (1596 yards from scrimmage, 15 touchdowns), and (Tight End) Sam LaPorta (47 catches, 599 yards, 6 touchdowns) just a few of the numerous playmakers to be found. Last weekend’s 34-17 drubbing of the Bears was a perfect example of this, as the visitors raced out to 27-7 lead with scores on six of their first seven possessions. While the hosts managed to rack up 382 total yards, it was eclipsed by the Lions, who amassed a whopping 475 yards of their own on twenty-seven first downs, outrushing Chicago 146-59, while converting 7-of-12 third downs. Goff completed 23-of-32 passes for 336 yards and three touchdowns, including an 82-yard scoring strike to (third-year Receiver) Jameson Williams, who ended the afternoon with 143 yards on five receptions. St. Brown added seventy yards and a touchdown of his own on six catches, while Gibbs posted 154 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score on twenty-seven touches.
From a betting perspective, the Lions may be an NFC-best 13-2 straight-up thus far, but they have also been one of the most rewarding teams against the spread (10-4-1), parlaying to a solid net profit of 5.09 units. This is a team that after covering a remarkable NINE of their first eleven games this season, appear to finally be succumbing to all those injuries, at least on this front, failing to cover all but one of their last four outings (1-2-1). Under the leadership of Campbell, this is a franchise that has been one of the best bets in the NFL, posting a stellar 47-20-2 record versus the spread since he arrived back in 2021, including 24-10 ATS away from Ford Field, 23-11-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 25-10 ATS when harboring revenge, 23-12-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 32-14 ATS versus all opposition outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered a dozen of their last fourteen outings following a double-digit SUATS victory, with four consecutive covers in contests played on natural grass. Detroit has covered SIX straight games immediately preceding an encounter with the Vikings, though are 1-9 ATS as road favorites against a conference opponent and are fresh off a division matchup, which is the case tonight. Dating back to 1990, these felines are 18-10 ATS are Monday Night Football, including 1-0 ATS as an away favorite in such games. As for Goff, he is 42-26 ATS on the road, 52-36-1 ATS as a favorite, 30-20 ATS with revenge, 37-24-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, 22-24-1 ATS following back-to-back SU wins, 52-38 ATS versus non-division foes, with by far and away his best role being that of a road favorite (24-13 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the Lions trail the all-time series between these franchises (40-28-1), winning just one of the last five meetings between them. Of course, they very nearly toppled San Francisco in their most recent encounter, that aforementioned 34-31 affair in last January’s NFC Title Game. This one was all Detroit, folks, with the visitors scoring three touchdowns on their first four possessions en route to establishing a commanding 24-7 lead at halftime. Unfortunately, they play two halves of football, with the game flipping on its head as Campbell’s aggressiveness came back to bite him as his team failed to convert a pair of fourth downs, bookending another possession in which Gibbs lost a fumble deep in his own territory, which coincided with a 27-0 run from the Niners. Detroit would cut the deficit back to three points following a lengthy 11-play drive resulting in a short toss into the back of the end zone to Williams, though they would be unable to secure the ensuing onside kick, ending the game. The cats racked up 442 total yards on twenty-eight first downs, including 182 rushing yards against one of the best defenses in the league, converting 6-of-12 third downs along the way, though were done in by those three empty drives. Goff was 25-of-41 passing for 273 yards and that strike to Williams (who also had a 42-yard rushing score), while Gibbs and Montgomery combined for 169 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown apiece. Getting back to Goff, the veteran is 3-7 throughout his career against San Fran, completing 61.0% of his throws for an average of 219.1 yards on 6.15 net yards per attempt with eighteen touchdowns and nine total turnovers. On MNF, he is 6-2 with a prolific 283.0 yards passing with eighteen total scores and nine turnovers. Given the seasons that these teams have had to this point, the public is back Campbell & Co HARD, with roughly 87% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting that Honolulu blue, with an even larger share of the overall money changing hands (96%) following suit. As we covered earlier, the injury situation is getting dire in Detroit, with a ridiculous TWENTY-ONE different players languishing on injured reserve, including eight who are starters. However, (veteran Tailback) David Montgomery, who was feared to be finished for the season with a possible MCL tear, avoided surgery and could return at some point in the payoffs. Furthermore, (Sophomore Safety) Brian Branch (calf) and (veteran Guard) Graham Glasgow (knee) are both listed as questionable after being limited throughout the practice week. Looking ahead, the Lions could be facing a MASSIVE contest next weekend as they welcome the Vikings to Ford Field, which depending on how this weekend’s games turn out, could end up deciding the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC.
Meanwhile, their adversary tonight may be persevering throughout their injury crisis, but for the 49ers (6-9, 4t in NFC West), there are only so many blows that a team can take before they are unable to compete at the lofty level that we’ve come to associate with them. Indeed, over the last few seasons, San Francisco has become an increasingly top-heavy team, which is a byproduct of their success between 2019 and 2023, appearing in four NFC Title Games and a pair of Super Bowls. Unfortunately, this is a team that failed to receive that emotional deluge that hoisting a Lombardi Trophy provides and now appear to be paying for so many lengthy postseason runs without that elusive payoff. So, let’s run down the list of absences, shall we? (Head Coach) Kyle Shanahan & Co were without (reigning Offensive Player of the Year) Christian McCaffrey for the first NINE weeks of the campaign due to lingering soreness in his calf/Achilles, only to last just four games before being shut down for the rest of the season with a torn PCL in his knee. If that wasn’t bad enough, (young Receiver) Brandon Aiyuk (knee), (veteran Defensive Tackle) Javon Hargrave (triceps), (perennial All-Pro Left Tackle) Trent Williams (ankle), (veteran Linebacker) Dre Greenlaw (calf), and a slew of other players have missed significant time this year, depriving the Niners of many playmakers on both sides of the football. This is a sport that is often described as a game of inches, though players are the ones who make the difference, and when you’re frequently without your best, then you’re going to struggle. Shanahan (pictured below) is one of the brightest offensive minds in the sport, but even all of his playcalling nous haven’t been enough to make up for the loss of such talent; San Fran ranks eighth in total yards (365.7) and tenth on third down (42.0%), but only fourteenth in points scored (22.1) and twenty-fifth in the red zone (51.8%). For those wondering, this is a unit that averaged 28.9 points (3rd Overall) during their run to Super Bowl LVIII last February, due in large part to leading the NFL with a 67.2% red zone percentage (1st Overall), which can be attributed to the presence of McCaffrey, who led the league with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and twenty-one total touchdowns. The 49ers were also +10 in turnover differential to boot, with that figure dropping precipitously to -5 (23rd Overall). Losers of five of their last six outings, it could be argued that last weekend’s 29-17 defeat at the Dolphins was rock bottom. This one was competitive for at least two quarters, as the visitors trailed 13-10 at halftime, though were nothing short of a disaster post-intermission, where they were outscored 16-7. Coming out of the locker room, they managed to drive all the way down to Miami’s 23-yard line before settling for a 41-yard field goal attempt, that (Sophomore Kicker) Jake Moody missed. Then, after cutting the deficit to two points via a short touchdown from (young Quarterback) Brock Purdy to (reserve Tight End) Austin Saubert, their final three possessions ended in a punt, an interception, and a turnover on downs. When it was all said and done, San Francisco was outgained by only seven total yards, but were hammered on the ground (166-81), converted 5-of-13 third downs, penalized eleven times for a loss of ninety yards, and possessed the ball for a mere 26:54. Purdy completed 26-of-40 throws for 313 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but was picked off once and sacked three times, while (veteran Wideout) Deebo Samuel totaled 121 yards from scrimmage, including twenty-five rushing, with 16-yard score to boot. (Veteran Tight End) George Kittle put in another strong showing with eight receptions on nine targets for 106 yards, while (All-Pro Linebacker) Fred Warner led the defense with eleven tackles.
From a betting perspective, the 49ers have struggled mightily both straight-up (6-9) and against the spread (5-10), parlaying to a net loss of 5.45 units, making them one of the least-rewarding teams in the NFL in 2024. Granted, this is a team that hasn’t paid off on this front for quite some time, covering just ten of their last THIRTY games dating back to the previous campaign, including only one cover in their past seven outings. Under the leadership of Shanahan, this is a franchise that is 71-69-2 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2017, including 33-35 ATS at Levi’s Stadium, 43-48 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 31-24 ATS when playing against a team with revenge, 28-28 ATS following a SU loss, and 46-47 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover six straight outings after shipping 350+ total yards in the previous contest, while dropping four in a row ATS immediately after relinquishing fewer than ninety rushing yards. San Francisco has performed relatively well as underdogs during the latter stretch of the season, covering ten of their last thirteen games when receiving points in the months of December and January. As for Purdy, he is 12-11 ATS at home, 0-2 ATS as an underdog, 4-6 ATS against revenge, 6-7 when coming off a SU defeat, 3-11 ATS following back-to-back SU losses, 13-14 ATS versus non-division adversaries. Dating back to 1990, the Niners are 49-21 ATS on Monday Night Football, including a stellar 5-1 ATS as a home dog in such affairs, while covering twelve out of fourteen of those contests following a double-digit spread loss. Looking at this particular matchup, the 49ers own a sizable advantage in the all-time series between these franchises (40-28-1), which includes four SU victories in their last five encounters. That 34-31 rally in last January’s NFC Championship was really a tale of two halves, as Shanahan’s troops were blindsided in the first twenty-four minutes of action; the hosts were outgained 280-131 in total yards, as (young Kicker) Jake Moody missed 48-yard field goal on the opening drive, with an interception of Purdy bookending a 75-yard drive punctuated by a short score courtesy of McCaffrey. The second half was in stark contrast, folks, as San Francisco outscored Detroit 27-7 during that span, as McCaffrey added another touchdown, while Purdy found Aiyuk for a score to boot. The defense stiffened too, relinquishing just 167 yards down the stretch, seventy-five of which came on the visitor’s frantic final drive. When it was all said and done, the Niners totaled 413 yards of offense on twenty-three first downs, rushing for 155 yards on thirty-three attempts, and converted 6-of-12 third downs as well. Purdy completed 20-of-31 passes for 267 yards, with a touchdown and interception apiece, while McCaffrey was a huge presence 132 yards from scrimmage on twenty-four touches, with a pair of rushing scores. (Veteran Safety) Tashaun Gipson was responsible for that key forced fumble of Gibbs, which helped fuel the shift in momentum midway through the third quarter. As we covered earlier, it’s been a trying campaign for San Francisco, who have FIFTEEN different players on injured reserve, including a wealth of starters such McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Hargrave, and now Williams, who is done for the year with a lingering high ankle sprain. Furthermore, the backfield has been utterly decimated with the top-four Tailbacks on the depth chart all sidelined for the foreseeable future, while the likes of Bosa (hip) and Greenlaw (Achilles), two of their longtime standouts on the defensive side of the football, listed as questionable after returning from respective maladies last week. Looking ahead, after being officially eliminated from postseason contention last week, the 49ers will be playing out the proverbial string in their annual pilgrimage to the desert, where the Cardinals look to sweep the season series for the first time since 2021.