7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Penn State -11.0, Total: 53.0
With the first round of the expanded College Football Playoff in the books, the Quarterfinals begin with a matchup between one of the true bluebloods of the sport and a habitual giant-killer, as the (No. 4) Penn State Nittany Lions battle the (No. 9) Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. For the first time since its inception in 2014, Penn State (12-2, 8-1 in BIG 10) finally find themselves participating in the Playoff. Never mind that it took massive reformation to the format of the tournament for the Nittany Lions to get into this particular dance, for it must be vindicating for (Head Coach) James Franklin to reach this point given that his tenure in Happy Valley has long been marred by his inability to take down the elite teams placed in front him. That has been quite a problem in a conference such as the BIG 10, which in addition to traditional powerhouses such as Michigan and Ohio State, now count the nation’s top-ranked team, Oregon, among its residents. During his eleven years with the program, Franklin is a stellar 100-41 (.709) against all opponents, including six seasons of 10+ wins and reaching the top-8 of the rankings in nine successive campaigns, though nonetheless had come just short of advancing to the Playoff until this year. Again, it boils down to an inability to beat the best; Franklin is 15-27 (.357) versus ranked opponents since 2014, including 3-20 (.130) against top-10 foes, with a 4-17 (.190) ledger against the Wolverines and Buckeyes (only one of those wins came against a top-10 adversary). Unfortunately, it has been more of the same this Fall, with the Lions’ lone two losses coming opposite of Ohio State (20-13) and most recently Oregon (45-37) in the BIG 10 Title Game, with those schools coincidentally ranked fourth and first overall. True to form, they bullied their way through a 38-10 victory over (No. 12) SMU in the first round of the Playoff, largely on the strength of a dominant defense that outscored the Mustangs by themselves. It was a slow start for Franklin’s offense, but thankfully (Defensive Coordinator) Tom Allen’s troops stepped in to carry the burden early, turning over the visitors not once, but twice, returning each interception for a touchdown. The first came courtesy of (Junior Linebacker) Dominic DeLuca (23 yards) with the second via (Senior Linebacker) Tony Rojas (59 yards), stacking the deck as the offense began to finally find their rhythm. From there, (Offensive Coordinator) Andy Kotelnicki opted to keep things grounded for the Nittany Lions, rushing for 189 yards on forty carries, with three touchdowns in total, all of which coming from the backfield tandem of Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. As they have throughout the campaign, Allen and Singleton (pictured together below) were decisive in churning out 160 yards rushing, with the former needing just eleven carries to reach seventy yards and the latter totaling ninety yards on fourteen attempts. On the season, the duo accounted for 1,820 yards with eight touchdowns apiece, with Singleton proving to be more of a factor in the passing game with thirty-nine catches, 342 yards and five more scores. As for (Sophomore Quarterback) Drew Allar, he completed 13-of-22 passes for just 127 yards in that conquest of Southern Methodist, though that performance doesn’t speak for how much he has grown in his second season as the starter in Happy Valley. The former 5-star recruit was far more efficient under Kotelnicki’s tutelage, completing 68.5% of his throws for 3,021 yards on a much-improved 8.7 yards per attempt, though posted a relatively modest twenty-one touchdowns in comparison to seven interceptions. The 6′-5″, 241-pounder was however, more of a rushing threat with 289 yards and six more scores, though he has left us all with a sense that his best is yet to come. Perhaps that is why he opted to remain at PSU for next season despite likely being selected in the first round of next Spring’s NFL Draft.
From a betting perspective, Penn State may come into tonight’s playoff at a stellar 12-2, but they have been the very definition of mediocre when it comes to the spread (7-7), parlaying to a net loss of 0.64 units. With that being said, this is a team has been more rewarding in this regard of late, covering five of their past eight outings, including that aforementioned romp over SMU in the first round of the Playoff (-9). Under the leadership of Franklin, this is a program that is 75-59-4 versus the spread since his arrival back in 2014, including 8-5 ATS on neutral fields over the past ten years, 62-41 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 13-10 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 57-32 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 24-14 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10. All-time, the Nittany Lions are 32-20-2 SU in bowls (.594), including 5-5 under Franklin’s watch, with last 38-25 loss to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl serving as their most recent such affair (contested at a neutral site). The denizens of Happy Valley trailed throughout this one, folks, drawing level twice in the early stages only to trail by as many as twenty-one points. It wasn’t that PSU couldn’t keep up with the Rebels’ high-powered attack, it was that they couldn’t refrain from shooting themselves in the foot; the cats were nearly on par in total yardage (540-506), though a pair of crucial turnovers spelled empty drives, which ultimately proved to be the difference. Allar completed just 19-of-39 passes, though amassed 295 yards, two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another thirty-six yards on five carries, even hauling in a 10-yard pass to boot. As for Allen and Singleton, they rushed for fifty-one and fifty yards respectively, though the latter played a much larger role in the passing game with four receptions for eighty-six yards and 48-yard score from (backup QB) Beau Pribula. (Senior Tight End) Tyler Warren saw a lot of work on this day too, reeling in five catches for 127 yards. Looking ahead, if Penn State proves victorious tonight, then they will be headed to South Beach to battle the winner of Notre Dame/Georgia in the CFP National Semifinal on January 9th.
Meanwhile, for only the second time since its inception back in 2014, a Group of Five team has crashed the Playoff, as Boise State (12-1, 7-0 in MWC) enters the tournament with arguably the best player in the entire field. Fresh off their second consecutive Mountain West Championship, the Broncos are NOT to be overlooked, folks, particularly when you consider how they performed against the top-seeded team in this big dance. That’s right, the only loss that (Head Coach) Spencer Danielson’s troops have suffered this year came on the road at Autzen Stadium against (No. 1) Oregon, a tightly contested 37-34 affair in which the hosts were sweating bullets. The visitors held a lead on three different occasions in that affair, including 34-27 midway through the fourth quarter before the Ducks drew level once again thanks to a 100-yard kickoff return to the house. From there, struggled to get into scoring position again, while their opponent bled the clock all the way down before kicking a chip shot field goal to win the game at the death. BSU outgained UO 369-352 in total yards, outrushed them 221-109, and forced a pair of turnovers to boot, with this tilt serving as the national coming-out party for (All-American Tailback) Ashton Jeanty. Coming into this season, Jeanty (pictured below) was on the shortlist to earn Doak Walker award honors after leading the MWC in rushing yards (1,347) last Fall. However, few players have raised their profile as much as the Jacksonville native, who rushed for a staggering 2,497 yards and TWENTY-NINE touchdowns on an insane 7.3 yards per carry en route to finishing as runner-up to the Heisman Memorial trophy. To put that into perspective, the two-time Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year is just 132 rushing yards away from surpassing (Hall of Famer) Barry Sanders’ single-season record (2,628) that has stood for thirty-six years. Granted, Sanders accomplished that feat in eleven games in comparison to at least fourteen for Jeanty, but it is nonetheless impressive that the 21-year-old has reached this point. For those wondering, Jeanty has been held below 132 rushing yards just twice this season, with 192 yards coming against Oregon. However, this team is much more than just the prolific RB, as Danielson has a complete team on his hands. (Redshirt Sophomore Quarterback) Maddux Madsen beat out (5-star USC transfer) Malachi Nelson earlier in the campaign and has proven to be a perfect complement to Jeanty, completing 62.0% of his throws for 2,714 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt with twenty-two touchdowns opposed to just three interceptions. He’s also been sneaky mobile too, particularly down in the red zone where Jeanty has drawn so much attention, rushing for 224 yards and five more scores. And then there is the defense, which hasn’t lost a step as Danielson ascended from defensive coordinator to the full-time HC in the offseason. Boise State relinquished 21.9 points per game (36th in FBS) on 361.9 total yards this season, which may not blow you away, but they have been adept at creating havoc at the line of scrimmage with FIFTY-ONE sacks and 109 tackles for loss, with a turnover differential of +7. (Junior Defensive End) Jayden Virgin ranked second in the conference in sacks (10) and third in tackles for loss (16), while (Senior Cornerback) A’Marion McCoy ranked second in the country in passes deflected (14), with one interception that he returned for a score. When we last saw the Broncos, they won their second straight MWC Title in a 21-7 victory over (No. 24) UNLV, their third over the Rebels in a calendar year. Jeanty & Co dominated this affair, leading 21-0 for the bulk of the night until their opponent finally got on the board midway through the final period. When it was all said and done, Danielson’s defense held the Rebs to 327 total yards, including a mere 110 through the air on 13-of-28 attempts, totaling SIX sacks, eleven tackles for loss, a forced fumble and an interception. Jeanty led the way with 209 yards rushing on an industrious thirty-two carries, highlighted by a watershed 75-yard touchdown burst just before halftime to break the affair wide open.
From a betting perspective, Boise State may enter the Playoff with a stellar 12-1 straight-up record, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (7-5-1), parlaying to a small net profit of 1.36 units. This is a team that started strong enough in that latter regard, posting a 5-2-1 mark versus the spread through the first eight games, though have mustered two covers in the last five outings as they became heavier favorites. Remember, apart from that aforementioned triumph over UNLV (-4), these ponies have been favored by at least two touchdowns in seven of their final eight regular season games. Under the direction of Danielson, this is a program that is 10-6-1 ATS since he was promoted late last season, including 8-5 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 2-4 ATS versus non-conference opposition. The Broncos are 13-8 all-time in bowls, including 8-4 SU since 2009. Furthermore, BSU has risen to the challenge of stiffer competition of late, covering each of their last five encounters against adversaries who are above .500. They participated in last December’s LA Bowl against hometown UCLA, falling in a 35-22 affair despite leading throughout the first half. This one turned for the worse midway through the third quarter, as the Bruins ran off TWENTY-EIGHT unanswered points, effectively ending the contest altogether. Danielson’s defense was gashed for 510 total yards, including 280 on the ground, while Jeanty took a bit of a backseat to his former teammate, George Holani (183 yards from scrimmage), churning out 102 yards from scrimmage of his own. As we discussed earlier, these programs have never crossed paths on the gridiron. It appears that the public thinks that giving BSU this many points may be a little too generous, as roughly 62% of all wagers on tonight’s spread are riding with the Broncos, though as far as the total sum of money goes, the share is deadlocked at 50%. Looking ahead, a win tonight will send Boise State to the CFP Semifinals in the Orange Bowl from Miami, which would serve as a homecoming of sorts for Jeanty, against either the Irish or the Bulldogs.