5:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ohio State -2.5, Total: 55.5
The College Football Playoff marches on into the new year, as the (No. 6) Ohio State Buckeyes have vengeance on their minds in this rematch with the (No. 1) Oregon Ducks in this loaded quarterfinal matchup from the Rose Bowl. This expanded Playoff means many different things to its participants, but for Ohio State (11-2, 7-2 in BIG 10), this dance is about one thing and one thing only: redemption. For a fourth consecutive season, the Buckeyes have fallen to Michigan, with this latest defeat easily the most disappointing. Indeed, after watching their foes win the national championship last January, everything aligned for the axis in this rivalry to be turned on its head. First, the Wolverines bid farewell to their head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and a slew of starters, including nine on the offensive side of the ball alone, and as a result stumbled through an uneven campaign with a 6-5 ledger coming into the matchup. Second, OSU appeared to have stocked up with this game in mind; (Head Coach) Ryan Day tapped into the Transfer Portal in a major way, spending nearly $20 million in NIL funds on the likes of (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs, bolstering a roster featuring a bevy of SIXTEEN returning starters who were all hungry for some payback. Furthermore, their only defeat of the season at that point came at (No. 1) Oregon, an entertaining 32-31 affair in Eugene in which Howard’s confounding clock management ended any opportunity to earn the victory (more on this one later). However, the latest installment in college football’s greatest rivalry came and went with another defeat for Ohio State, who still managed to get into the Playoff thanks to an expansion to a dozen teams. As such, the Buckeyes received an opportunity to correct course with a first-round affair at the Horseshoe, where (No. 7) Tennessee came calling, and thankfully for everyone in Columbus, were sent home with their tails between their legs. Indeed, a 42-17 drubbing of a top-10 SEC adversary is nothing to sneer at, as Day’s (pictured below) troops clearly used all of the negative criticism that they had earned over the previous two weeks as motivation, for they manhandled the Volunteers. The hosts breached the end zone on each of their first three drives of the night, as Howard opened their ledger with a 37-yard strike to (Freshman Wideout) Jeremiah Smith, followed by back-to-back rushing touchdowns courtesy of Judkins and (fellow Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson to take a commanding 21-0 lead before the visitors responded with ten unanswered point just before halftime. With that being said, that would be as close as the Vols would get, as OSU began the second half just as they did the first, running off another TWENTY-ONE straight points, with Howard finding Smith yet again for a 22-yard touchdown, followed by scoring runs from Judkins and Henderson. When it was all said and done, the Scarlet & Grey outgained their opponent 473-256 in total yards and 24-17 in first downs, with the passing game and the defense taking precedence in this primetime tilt. Howard was excellent in completing a surgical 24-of-29 of his throws for 311 yards, those two touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another thirty-seven yards on five carries. Smith, who leads the BIG 10 with a dozen receiving scores, hauled six balls for 103 yards and two touchdowns, while (Senior Wideout) Emeka Egbuka added five receptions for eighty-one yards. As for Judkins and Henderson, the tandem combined for 114 rushing yards on ten carries apiece, with the former also posting four catches for another fifty-four yards. Defensively, (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles put together a tremendous gameplan as his unit arose to the challenge of battling Tennessee’s prolific attack, shipping a scant 104 passing yards on 14-of-31 attempts, which equates to a mere 3.4 yards per throw. (Senior Defensive Linemen) J.T. Tuimoloao and Jack Sawyer accounted for 3.5 sacks, four tackles for loss, and three deflected passes and a forced fumble, while (Senior Linebacker) Cody Simon leading the team with a dozen tackles.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may enter this evening’s quarterfinal with an 11-2 record straight-up, but they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (7-6), parlaying to a net profit of just 0.36 units. This is a team that has covered back-to-back games on two different occasions this season, though have alternated wins and losses versus the spread for four outings now, including that aforementioned thumping of Tennessee two weeks ago (-7.5). Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is 41-32-3 ATS since he was promoted back in 2019, including 36-29 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 9-7 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 31-24 ATS following a SU victory, and 29-20 ATS against their fellow residents within the BIG 10, with a 2-6 ledger ATS in all games contested at neutral sites. With that last bit in mind, the Buckeyes have failed to cover four straight tilts where there is no homefield advantage to be had for either side. All-time, OSU 24-23 SU in bowls, including a middling 10-10 in their last twenty appearances in such events, with their most recent coming in the form of last year’s 14-3 Cotton Bowl defeat against Missouri. Granted, it should be noted that Day was without a PLETHORA of starters in this one, as many of his troops opted out of participating, including former stars such as Marvin Harrison Jr, Kyle McCord, Deamonte Trayanum, and Tommy Eichenberg. As a result, they could muster just three points on 203 total yards, with the duo of (Quarterbacks) Lincoln Kienholz and Devin Brown combining for just 106 yards on 10-of-23 passing. Getting back to this evening’s matchup, these schools have crossed paths on the gridiron on eleven occasions, with the Buckeyes owning a commanding 9-2 advantage in the all-time series, but have dropped the two most recent encounters, including that aforementioned 32-31 affair in Eugene back in mid-October. In one of the most entertaining contests of the year, this one lived up to the hype, folks; eight lead changes, 963 combined total yards, including 667 through the air, the biggest difference in this one was one side made mistakes, and that was definitely the visitors. Ball security was a major issue for Day & Co, who committed three fumbles on the night, losing two of them, while Howard’s mismanagement of the clock on the final drive, butchered any opportunity of setting up a potential game-winning field goal. In the end, the transfer from K-State completed 28-of-35 passes for 326 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while even rushing for another score on their opening drive of game. Smith and Egbuka were running open and free throughout the night, reeling in a combined nineteen receptions for 193 yards and a touchdown apiece, while Henderson led the team with eighty-seven rushing yards on just ten carries. Knowles’ defense will need to find a way to get some heat on the QB in today’s rematch, after failing to register a sack or a takeaway in the previous affair, logging just two tackles for loss altogether. It seems that public were indeed moved by that affair, as roughly 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread are sporting scarlet and grey, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered (39%) has followed suit. Looking ahead, if Ohio State does in fact serve up some revenge at the Rose Bowl, then they will be facing the victor between (No. 3) Texas and (No. 12) Arizona State in the CFP Semifinals from AT&T Stadium.
Meanwhile, the only undefeated team in this playoff is Oregon (13-0, 9-0 in BIG 10), who are fresh off winning the BIG 10 Championship in this, their first year as a member of the conference. Just as his counterpart in Austin has done in preparing Texas to transition to the SEC, (Head Coach) Dan Lanning has done a tremendous job of building this program for this move; now in his third year in Eugene, the 38-year-old is 35-5 (.875) which is remarkable given that they lost eight starters from last year’s team, including (All-America Quarterback) Bo Nix. However, just as he had in each of his two previous campaigns, Lanning hit the Transfer Portal hard, importing a wealth of experienced talent to the pacific northwest, headlined by the addition of (sixth-year Senior Quarterback) Dillon Gabriel. If it feels like this guy has been in college for ages, folks, it is because he has; Gabriel (pictured below) began his collegiate career at UCF back in 2019, where he would twenty-six games in three seasons, before suffering a broken left clavicle that ended his 2021 campaign prematurely, prompting a transfer to Oklahoma. From there, the native Hawaiian would spend two years in Norman, guiding the Sooners to a 16-8 record, though would opt to transfer yet again, using his final year of eligibility at Oregon, which has proven to be a career-defining decision. Simply put, it has been a seamless transition from Nix to Gabriel this season, with the latter completing a career-high 73.2% of his throws for a BIG 10-best 3,558 yards on 8.8 yards per attempt, with twenty-eight touchdowns in comparison to six interceptions, while rushing for another seven scores to boot. Granted, he started relatively slowly as he became acclimated to his new teammates and (Offensive Coordinator) Will Stein’s playbook, but he eventually found his footing en route to laying claim to numerous awards, including First Team All-America and All-Conference, BIG 10 Offensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player, and was a finalist for the Heisman Memorial Trophy. We’ll get into his performance in that aforementioned triumph over the Buckeyes in a bit, but he was nothing short of impressive in the Ducks’ 45-37 conquest of (No. 4) Penn State in the BIG 10 Championship Game. This was an entertaining affair full of twists and turns, as Gabriel & Co led by as many as eighteen points in the first half before the Nittany Lions mounted a series of comebacks, cutting the deficit to single digits on three occasions. However, these birds responded with each rally, racking up 466 total yards when it was all said and done, including 300 total yards from Gabriel, including 283 on 22-of-32 passing with FOUR touchdowns, the first of which being a 28-yarder to (Sophomore Tight End) Kenyon Sadiq and the last a 48-yard rally-killer to (Senior Receiver) Tez Johnson, who totaled 181 receiving yards when the night was over. However, there is no doubt that Lanning lamented the performance of his defense, which relinquished a season-high 518 total yards, including 292 via the run, which was seventy-one more than the previous highwater mark that they shipped to Ashton Jeanty and Boise State. Oregon really struggled to match Penn State’s physicality on the ground, yielding an untenable 8.3 yards per rush, which is cause for alarm with the Buckeyes on deck. To their credit, the Ducks bended throughout the contest, though compensated by winning the takeaway battle 2-0 courtesy of a pair of interceptions from (Senior Cornerbacks) Nikko Reed and Dontae Manning.
From a betting perspective, Oregon may enter this quarterfinal from the Rose Bowl with a perfect 13-0 record straight-up, but they too haven’t close to as rewarding against the spread (7-6), returning a net profit of just 0.36 units. After getting off to a relatively slow start with just one cover in their first five outings, this is a team that has grown into their potential with a 6-2 ledger versus the spread over their past eight contests, including that triumph over Penn State in the BIG 10 Championship Game (-3). Under the direction of Lanning, this is a program that is 23-14-1 ATS since he arrived back in 2022, including 1-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-2 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 21-10 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 18-10 ATS against their fellow residents within the BIG 10, along with 0-4 ATS at neutral sites. Furthermore, it should be noted that the Ducks have covered EIGHT consecutive contests as underdogs with rest, while posting a 9-1-1-mark ATS as dogs against BIG 10 competition, with both trends relevant this evening. On the flipside, UO is currently on a 4-game losing streak ATS when receiving points at neutral sites, which is also the case this evening. However, they have won each of their last appearances in the Rose Bowl (4-4 all-time), with their most recent coming back in 2020, a narrow 28-27 victory over Wisconsin. Interestingly, two of their nine all-time defeats to Ohio State have come at this venue (1958 and 2010), though as we covered earlier, they currently own a 2-game win streak over the Scarlet & Grey, with the most notable being that 32-31 thriller from Autzen Stadium. This one every bit the heavyweight fight that it was billed to be, as Lanning & Co had a counter punch for every blow that the Buckeyes landed. Against a unit that was statistically the mightiest in the country, the hosts put on a show with 496 total yards, including 155 yards on the ground, while the aforementioned Gabriel enhanced his Heisman candidacy with 373 total yards and three combined touchdowns. The experienced QB was rarely hurried by the opposing defense, completing 22-of-34 throws for 341 yards and two scores, the most important being a 48-yard bomb to Johnson to retake the lead shortly before halftime. He also rushed for a 27-yard touchdown to move back in front of his adversaries once again earlier in the final stanza. Johnson reeled in seven receptions for seventy-five yards, while (Junior Receiver) Evan Stewart posted 149 yards and a touchdown on seven catches of his own. As for James, he finished the night with 115 rushing yards and a score on twenty-three carries. It appears that Puddles & Co have earned the public’s favor this evening, as approximately 59% of all wagers placed upon the spread are repping the Ducks, while a slight smaller share of the total volume of money changing hands (55%) has followed suit. Looking ahead, if Oregon managed to make it three in a row over OSU, then they will be off to the Cotton Bowl Classic, which will be the site of the CFP Semifinal against either the Longhorns or former Pac-12 adversary, the Sun Devils.