8:45 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Georgia -1.0, Total: 45.0
The Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff comes to a conclusion tonight in New Orleans , where the (No. 2) Georgia Bulldogs look to persevere through a late emergency change at quarterback, while the surging (No. 5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish have designs on advancing to their first National Semifinal in four years. Notre Dame (12-1, Ind) return to the Playoff after a 3-year drought, slowly building a head of steam for themselves after working their way through a slow start. The golden-domers gutted their way through a tough 23-13 affair at (No. 20) Texas A&M in the opener, only to get embarrassed at home a week later against Northern Illinois in a stunning 16-14 upset. However, if you are going to suffer a defeat, even one to an unranked MAC opponent, it is far more advantageous to do so in the early stages of the campaign; since that low point, the Fighting Irish have figured things out, scoring no fewer than thirty-one points in all but one of their final ten contests, averaging 40.9 points on a healthy 430.2 total yards with a turnover differential of +18. Indeed, (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman has found a formula for success in this, his third season as the Irish’s leading man: dip into the portal to find an experienced quarterback, while building up the offensive and defensive lines. A year after importing one ACC QB, Riley Leonard arrived from Duke, along with (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock (via LSU) to revamp the attack. Leonard (pictured below) started twenty games for the Blue Devils between 2021 and 2023, winning thirteen of them along the way, while Denbrock oversaw the nation’s top-ranked attack in terms of yards per play last Fall in Baton Rouge. Again, it wasn’t instant success for this tandem, but it has been a successful marriage on the whole of the campaign; Notre Dame rank fourth in the country in points scored (38.8) on a robust 419.2 total yards, including 222.4 yards on the ground, where Leonard has contributed with a career-high 751 rushing yards and fifteen scores, both of which rank second on the team. He’s also been as advertised as a passer, completing an efficient 66.8% of his throws with seventeen touchdowns opposed to six interceptions. Injuries may have slowed him early this Fall (he didn’t throw a TD in his first 3 games), but he eventually found a solid balance between running and throwing the ball; since that loss to NIU, the senior has completed 68.1% of his throws for 179.2 yards on 7.5 yards per attempt, with seventeen scores and four picks, while becoming much more of a factor on the ground in rushing for another 61.0 yards and fourteen more touchdowns. Furthermore, (Sophomore Tailbacks) Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been effective when carrying the rock too, with the former leading the team in yards (1,057) and scores (16), while the latter has added 683 yards, seven touchdowns, and a stellar 6.8 yards per carry to boot. Coupled with a veteran defense that returned nine starters en route to shipping just 13.8 points (3rd in FBS) on 295.3 total yards, and you have a team that is fully capable of bullying their way to the next round of this playoff. The Irish have toppled five different ranked opponents this season, including (No. 9) Indiana in their first-round affair from South Bend, which had plenty of people calling into question the CV of their instate rivals. Simply put, this one was all ND despite the score indicating that it was closer than the 27-17 final score would lead you to believe. The hosts kicked things off with a 98-yard touchdown run courtesy of Love on their first possession of the night, followed by a short touchdown toss from Leonard to (Junior Receiver) Jayden Thomas to take a 14-0 lead early in the second period. Freeman’s troops led by as many as twenty-four points before the Hoosiers added a pair of consolation touchdowns inside the final two minutes of play. When it was all said and done, the home side outgained the visitors 394-278 in total yards, including a commanding 193-63 on the ground, as the physicality in the trenches separated the Irish from their neighbors from Bloomington. Leonard completed 23-of-32 throws for 201 yards with a touchdown and interception, while rushing for another thirty yards and one more score. All but ten of Love’s rushing yardage came on that single jaunt to the end zone, while (Sophomore Wideout) Jordan Faison hauled in seven receptions for eighty-nine yards. Defensively, (Senior Safety) Xavier Watts continued to be a ballhawk with his sixth interception of campaign, adding to his ledger of thirteen dating back to last season.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame enter tonight’s quarterfinal with a stellar 12-1 record straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread too (11-2), equating to a net profit of 8.0 units. After a slow start in which they split their first four games (2-2 ATS), this is a team that has been on quite a run with NINE consecutive SU/ATS victories, including that drubbing of Indiana in the first round of the playoff (-7). Under the leadership of Freeman, this is a program that is a stellar 27-11 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2022, including 5-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, a perfect 8-0 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, and 19-8 ATS following a SU win, with six straight covers in games contested at neutral sites. Furthermore, his troops are on a 7-game win streak ATS after shipping fewer than twenty points in the previous tilt, covering six in a row that played on field turf. The Fighting Irish are also 8-0 ATS in their last eight outings versus an opponent coming off at least one week of rest, though have failed to cover as many consecutive contests in which they are underdogs of thirteen or fewer points following a double-digit ATS victory and facing an adversary coming off a SU/ATS win, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Irish have NEVER beaten the Bulldogs in three all-time encounters, with the most notable being their first, a 17-10 affair in the 1980 National Championship Game, which was also contested at the Sugar Bowl. To give you an idea as to just how long ago this one really was, the Dawgs were led by (eventual Heisman winner) Herschel Walker, with (USA President) Jimmy Carter, who recently passed away over the weekend, was in attendance weeks before his term in the oval office came to a close. With all that being said, these two programs met most recently back in 2019, a 23-17 showdown in Athens, in which the defenses held serve for most of the game. However, ND were outrushed 154-46, lost the takeaways battle 2-1 with a pair of interceptions tossed by (former QB) Ian Book, and a dozen penalties for a loss of eighty-five yards. The Irish were unlucky in forcing four fumbles, but only recovering one in a tilt that was ultimately decided by turnovers. Book completed 29-of-47 passes for 275 yards and a pair of touchdowns too, one of which going to (former Tight End) Cole Kmet, who hauled in nine receptions for 108 yards. It should be noted that Notre Dame were dogs in each of the last two encounters, receiving sixteen points from the oddsmakers in that battle between the hedges. With that in mind, the public doesn’t appear to be very convinced by Freeman & Co in this one, as approximately 35% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with the golden-domers, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money changing hands (27%) has followed suit. Looking ahead, if Notre Dame leave Mercedes-Benz Stadium victorious, then they will be headed to Miami for the CFP Semifinals where they will play the winner of (No. 4) Penn State and (No. 9) Boise State on January 9th.
Meanwhile, there is never a good time to suffer an injury at quarterback, with Georgia (11-2, 6-2 in SEC) facing such a dilemma at the worst possible time as they get set to compete in their third playoff in four years. In besting (No. 3) Texas for the second time in two months, a 22-19 overtime affair in the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs earned a first-round bye in the playoff but lost their QB in the process, as (Junior) Carson Beck suffered an elbow injury late in the contest. This creates a fascinating scenario for (Head Coach) Kirby Smart, who must now rely upon (Sophomore) Gunner Stockton, to lead the three-time National Champions moving forward into the foreseeable future. Simply put, this could be a blessing rather than a curse for the Dawgs, who were fell fairly short of their standard on the offensive side of the football this season. A year after leading the SEC in passes completed (302), attempted (417), and yards (3,941), Smart and (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Bobo opted to lean into the talents of Beck, leading to a more pass-heavy approach than we have seen in recent years. This came at the expense of their vaunted ground game, churning out the fewest rushing yards (129.2), which is well over fifty yards per game below the previous low-water mark of the Smart era. Coupled with their annual exodus of talent to the NFL along with a rash of injuries in the backfield (more on that in a bit) and the table was set for very different kind of campaign from Beck, who despite leading the SEC in touchdown passes (28) also paced the league in interceptions (12) doubling his total from 2023. He was also less efficient than he was a year ago, struggling through his reads and decision-making as Georgia’s offensive line wasn’t up to their par either. However, it certainly didn’t help that this is a unit that led the FBS in dropped passes, with the receiving corps fumbling well over thirty passes thus far. In their rematch versus the Longhorns, he completed just 7-of-13 throws for fifty-six yards before being replaced by Stockton (pictured below), who steadied the ship, connecting on 12-of-16 passes for seventy-one yards and an interception. Having seen action in eight games over the last two seasons, Stockton is much more of a dual threat than his predecessor, though he has thrown just fifty-one passes over that span with as many touchdowns as interceptions (2). Given that they have had roughly a month to formulate a gameplan, it will be interesting to see how Smart and Bobo approach tonight’s clash with Notre Dame. This shift to Stockton likely necessitates a return to a more run-heavy attack, which is where they’ve had so much success in the past. (Freshman Tailback) Nate Frazier and (Junior) Trevor Etienne have been the most prominent performers this season, with the former being pressed into action, while the latter dealt with early injuries. Frazier rushed for 634 yards and nine touchdowns on 4.9 yards per game, while Etienne, a transfer from Florida, wasn’t far behind with 571 yards rushing and a team-high nine scores, proving to be more of a threat in the short passing game with 168 more yards on twenty-eight catches. Etienne was a sizable factor in the win over Texas, rushing for ninety-four yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner in overtime, on sixteen carries against one of the toughest defenses in the country. As a team, the Bulldogs dominated in this regard, outgaining the Horns 141-31 on the ground, while Smart’s defense routinely stiffened int eh red zone and forced three takeaways. (Junior Cornerback) Daylen Everette logged a pair of interceptions, while the unit as a whole wreaked havoc in the opponent’s backfield with six sacks and fifteen tackles for loss.
From a betting perspective, Georgia may be entering this quarterfinal with an 11-2 record straight-up, but they have been incredibly difficult to bet on in terms of the spread (4-9), equating to a net loss of 5.36 units, the worst payout of any team in this playoff. This is a group that has gone at least two games between covers, including five straight losses versus the spread following the season opener, and two before their triumph over Texas in the SEC Championship Game (+3). Under the direction of Smart, this is a program that is 74-52 ATS since his arrival in Athens back in 2016, including 55-48 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-9 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 48-45 ATS following a SU victory, and 19-14 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the SEC, along with 23-12 ATS in games contested at neutral sites. The Bulldogs are 57-4 SU in their last sixty-one outings, laying points in all but three of them. Keep an eye on that line, folks, for if these canines happen to be receiving points from the oddsmakers, it should be noted that they are 2-0 this year in such games, both of which were “upsets” of Texas. Furthermore, the Dawgs have covered just one of their past ten tilts as a favorite, while currently riding a 6-game losing streak ATS after shipping less than twenty points in the previous game. They have also handled themselves well outside of conference play, covering ten of their last twelve contests as non-conference favorites of thirty-six points or less, which is the case tonight. As we covered earlier, Georgia has never lost to Notre Dame on the gridiron, winning the program’s first national championship in that aforementioned 1981 Sugar Bowl, while also besting them twice in 2017 and 2019. When they crossed paths in Athens five years ago, the hosts trailed 10-7 until running off sixteen unanswered points to the turn the tables on the Irish, due in large part to their punishing ground game that outrushed the visitors 154-46. Smart’s defense was in rare form here, folks, relegating ND to a scant 3.2 yards per carry, while picking off a pair of passes to boot. (Former QB) Jake Fromm completed an efficient 20-of-26 throws for 187 yards and a 15-yard touchdown to (former Wideout) Lawrence Cager, while (former Tailback) D’Andre Swift rushed for ninety-eight yards and an early score on eighteen carries. Even with the concerns at quarterback, the public is showing little concern in the Bulldogs, with roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread sporting read and black, while an even larger share of the overall money being wagered (72%) has followed suit with the SEC champions. On the injury front, we discussed the absence of Beck ad nauseum, though the backfield continues to be a bit of an issue for Smart, who in addition to being without (Sophomore Running Back) Branson Robinson due to a knee malady, (Freshman) Chauncey Bowers is listed as questionable with an ailing foot. Keep in mind that Etienne has missed four games with an assortment of issues and the depth in the run game could be seriously depleted. Looking ahead, if Georgia rally behind Stockton and prove victorious tonight, then they will advance to their fourth National Semifinal in eight years, facing the winner of the Nittany Lions and the Broncos.