1:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Texas -12.5, Total: 51.0
Happy New Year from everyone here at Oracle Sports, where our coverage of the College Football Playoff continues this afternoon with a matchup featuring the last two champions of the BIG XII, as the (No. 12) Texas Longhorns look to return to the Semifinals, while the (No. 12) Arizona State Sun Devils are keen on pulling a MAJOR upset. Most teams that are participating in this tournament are no stranger to expectations, particularly Texas (11-2, 7-1 in SEC), who have been one of the favorites to win the National Championship throughout the campaign. And honestly, why wouldn’t they? (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian and his coaching staff have recruited their asses off to rebuild this program into a powerhouse, transitioning from a BIG XII Championship and an appearance in last year’s Playoff to a near-perfect run through the mighty Southeast Conference, where they came up just short in last weekend’s title game. However, when looking at their CV from this Fall, it can be broken down into two distinct halves: their ledger versus (No. 2) Georgia and their performance against everyone else. In their twelve games against everyone else, the Longhorns met little resistance in averaging 36.7 points on 469.6 total yards, enjoying a turnover differential of +8 along the way, but in their two tilts with the Bulldogs they were relegated to a mere 17.0 points on 324.0 total yards with a takeaway margin of -2. The first meeting, an ugly 30-15 affair in Austin that mired by an embarrassing scene in which the student section tossed a plethora of bottles onto the field in protest to a non-call from the officials, saw the Horns held to a season-low 259 yards (3.4 yards per play!) with a season-high four turnovers. Their 22-19 showdown in the SEC Championship Game was a much closer encounter, though Sarkisian & Co still fell in overtime, which was a better offensive performance from Texas, though it still suffered from the same issues that befell its predecessor. After being limited to twenty-nine rushing yards in mid-October, the ground game could muster just thirty yards this time around, matching their dismal yads per carry output (1.1 yards per carry!). To put that into perspective, this is a unit that rushed for 167.4 yards in their other eleven games this season, being held below 4.0 yards per rush just twice. Simply put, if you can’t run the ball well enough against the Dawgs to at least keep them honest, then it’s going to be a very long day at the office, which was the case for (Junior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers, who struggled greatly in these contests. On both occasions, Ewers (pictured below alongside Sarkisian) attempted over forty-five passes and as a result threw as many interceptions as he did touchdowns (3). Hell, he was even benched for a few possessions in the first meeting, as (highly rated QB) Arch Manning took over to breathe some life into the offense. While he was suffering from the effects of bruised ribs sustained earlier in the campaign, these two games served as reveal the flaws in his game. Make no mistake, there is no player under more scrutiny to perform well in this Playoff, as the rumors that despite his wishes to return to Austin for his senior year, many in the program are pushing for him to transfer somewhere else so that the Manning era can officially begin. With that being said, the future will have to wait at least for one more game, as Texas took care of business at home with a 38-24 win over (No. 16) Clemson in their first-round matchup from Austin. The hosts fell behind early, but eventually wrestled control of the contest with twenty-one unanswered points, establishing a 31-10 lead midway through the third period. The Tigers would make things a bit interesting after breaching the end zone on back-to-back possessions, only for (Junior Tailback) Jaydon Blue effectively called game with a 77-yard touchdown run. When it was all said and done, both teams racked up over 400 total yards, though the Longhorns trampled the visitors on the ground, outrushing them 292-76 on a whopping forty-eight carries, which proved to be the difference. Both Blue and (Sophomore Tailback) Tre Wisner surpassed 100 yards and a pair of scores, with the former churning out 146 yards and the latter posting 110 yards of his own, while Ewers completed 17-of-24 passes for 202 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with (Senior Tight End) Gunnar Helm hauling six receptions for seventy-seven yards and a 19-yard score.
From a betting perspective, Texas may come into this quarterfinal 12-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (8-6), parlaying to a net profit of 1.27 units. After getting off to a blistering start with four straight SU/ATS victories, this has been a difficult team to profit off of, as they have covered just four of their final ten contests, including that first-round triumph over Clemson by the narrowest of margins (-13.5). Under the leadership of Sarkisian, this is a program that is 28-24-1 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2021, including 26-20 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-4 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, a middling 15-15 ATS when coming off a SU victory, 11-5 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of their conference they currently call home, be it the BIG XII or SEC. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover four games in a row immediately following a SU win, while covering just one of their last seven outings against opponents fresh off back-to-back SU/ATS victories. All-time, the Longhorns are 31-24-2 SU in bowls, including 14-6 over their last twenty appearances in these events, with their last trip to the Playoff ending at the semifinal stage in last year’s 37-31 loss to Washington. This was a tightly contested affair in the first half, as the two sides traded touchdowns en route to 21-21 score at intermission. However, the Huskies gained the upper hand with thirteen unanswered points before Ewers found (former Wideout) Adonai Mitchell for a short scoring strike, before his teammates cut the deficit to six points after exchanging field goals. Unfortunately, the ‘Horns failed to complete the comeback despite multiple shots at the end zone. This was a serious offensive showing for both foes, as Sark’s charges racked up 498 yards of total offense, but were also gashed for 532 yards. Looking at this afternoon’s matchup, Texas and Arizona State have only crossed paths on the gridiron once, a 52-34 triumph in the 2007 Holiday Bowl. To give you an idea as to how dated this one was, Mack Brown, Colt McCoy, and Jamaal Charles were just a few of the historic individuals on display, with McCoy rolling up 258 total yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Charles rushed for 161 of his team’s 300 yards on the ground, with two scores of his own. As you all can imagine, the Longhorns are heavy favorites today, with approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting burnt orange, with an even larger share of the total sum of money being wagered (76%) following suit. Looking ahead, if Texas handle their business this afternoon, then they will be enjoying what is for all intents and purposes a home game at AT&T Stadium, where either (No. 6) Ohio State or (No. 1) Oregon awaits in the CFP Semifinal.
Meanwhile, it seems like every season there is one team that makes a major leap in their development from one year to the next, with Arizona State (11-2, 7-2 in BIG XII) absolutely fitting that bill in 2024. Two years ago, this was a program that had fallen on dark times. An NCAA investigation into rampant recruiting violations cost five different coaches their jobs, before (former Head Coach) Herm Edwards was relieved of his duties just three games into the ensuing campaign. The Sun Devils fell to their worst finish in the history of the program (3-9), with sanctions levied by the NCAA ensuring that things would be difficult on the gridiron for years to come. However, things began to turn around quicker than anyone could have anticipated, beginning with the hire of (current HC) Kenny Dillingham, who returned to Tempe after a 7-year period akin to studying abroad. The youngest skipper at a Power 5 program at just 32-years-old, Dillingham (pictured below) returned to his alma mater and immediately went to work, defying the weight of those sanctions by tapping into the Transfer Portal where he and his staff landed a whopping THIRTY-TWO Division-1 transfers to remake the roster in his image. After finishing with a 3-9 record in his first year on the job, ASU were facing low expectations as they made the transition to the BIG XII, picked by many to circle the drain in a new conference. Again, their coach was having none of that, as the Devils improved by a staggering EIGHT wins, securing their first league title since 2007 when they were still a member of the Pac-12. Strong on both sides of the football, this is a team that averaged 33.1 points per game (30th in FBS) on 423.2 total yards, a dramatic increase of 15.3 points and 101.2 yards, while committing a scant eight turnovers along the way. Defensively, they showed a lot of growth too, shipping 21.3 points per contest (31st in FBS) on 336.9 total yards, a year after getting torched for 31.8 points on 397.0 yards, and forcing TWENTY-TWO takeaways, parlaying to a differential of +14 (they were -11 in 2023). There are a lot of playmakers to be found here, folks, including the triumvirate of (Redshirt Freshman Quarterback) Sam Leavitt, (Senior Tailback) Cam Scattebo, and (Sophomore Wideout) Jordyn Tyson, who arrived via transfer from Michigan State, Sacramento State, and Colorado respectively. Leavitt was the last to arrive, doing so last Spring, completing 63.2% of his throws for 2,663 yards on a BIG XII-best 8.8 yards per attempt, with twenty-four touchdowns opposed to five interceptions, while rushing for another 383 yards and five more scores. As for Scattebo, he completely transformed his body over the offseason and reaped the rewards with 2,074 yards from scrimmage, including 1,568 via the run, and twenty-two total scores, logging a robust 181.3 yards from scrimmage over the final eight games. And then there is Tyson, who after being part of the Colorado purge following Deion Sanders’ arrival, emerged has a lethal playmaker with seventy-five receptions,1,101 yards, and ten touchdowns in twelve games before his campaign came to an end due to a broken collarbone suffered in the finale triumph over bitter instate rival, Arizona (49-7). With that being said, his absence didn’t deter Arizona State from thrashing (No. 18) Iowa State in the BIG XII Title Game, a 45-19 affair which saw Dillingham’s troops erupt for THIRTY-FIVE unanswered points between the second and third quarters. The Sun Devils outgained the Cyclones 464-341 in total yards despite totaling six fewer first downs than their opponent, which should inform you that they produced a plethora of big plays. During that aforementioned run, they ripped off a pair of touchdowns of 20+ yards, including a 21-yard pass from Leavitt to (Senior Receiver) Xavier Guillory, followed by a 33-yard catch and run from Scattebo. The defense also forced three turnovers along the way, including an interception courtesy of (Sophomore Defensive Back) Keith Abney II, turning this showdown into a very one-sided tilt. Leavitt completed 12-of-17 passes for 219 yards and three touchdowns, averaging a healthy 12.9 yards per attempt, while Scattebo rushed for 170 yards and two scores on seventeen carries, while hauling in a pair of catches for thirty-eight yards and that aforementioned touchdown reception. Guillory added two scores himself, while (sixth-year Senior Wideout) Melquan Stovall amassed ninety-one yards on four catches.
From a betting perspective, Arizona State is not only 11-2 straight-up this season, but they posted an identical record against the spread, making them the most rewarding team in the country in that regard, parlaying to a net profit of 8.0 whole units. No team in the playoff field can boast such a return, with six consecutive covers coming into this afternoon’s affair officially making them the hottest participant in the CFP. Under the direction of Dillingham, this is a program that is 17-8 versus the spread since his arrival last Fall, including 10-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 2-1 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 8-5 ATS following a SU victory, 3-3 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the BIG XII. The Sun Devils are a stellar 9-2 ATS as underdogs of four or more points after enjoying at least a week off, which is also the case today. Furthermore, his troops have covered SEVEN consecutive contests after rushing for over 200 yards, which is the case this afternoon. All-time, this is a program 15-17-1 in bowls, though have won just three of their last eleven postseason tilts dating back to 2006. The last time that Sparky & Co participated in such an event, they fell to Wisconsin in the 2021 Las Vegas Bowl, 20-13. Points and yards were at a premium, as both sides were relegated below 300 total yards, though the Badgers ultimately seized the day due to their rushing prowess, outgaining their adversary 157-60 on the ground. It was (2023 Heisman) Jayden Daniels’ final game with the school before transferring to LSU, completing 11-of-21 passes for just 159 yards and an interception, while rushing for another forty yards despite an industrious nineteen carries. As we covered earlier, these programs have only crossed paths once before in that aforementioned 52-34 in the 2007 Holiday Bowl, which featured a ridiculous ELEVEN touchdowns and SIX turnovers, five of which coming from the Devils. This was a VERY sloppy performance, folks, as ASU’s tandem of quarterbacks tossed a combined three interceptions, while falling victim to a strip sack fumble in the end zone for a touchdown. With that being said, the biggest disparity came on the ground, where the denizens of the Pac-12 were trampled to the tune of 300-22. Maybe the betting public remembers that game, because only about 32% of wagers placed upon today’s spread are riding with Sparky, while an even smaller share of the overall money changing hands (22%) is following suit. Looking ahead, a win tonight will propel Arizona State to the CFP Semifinals at AT&T Stadium, which was coincidentally the same sight of their triumph in the BIG XII Championship Game, where they will battle either the Buckeyes or the Ducks.