7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Notre Dame -2.5, Total: 45.5
After an entertaining two rounds of the expanded College Football Playoff, we have reached the Final Four where the (No. 5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish battle the (No. 4) Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida. Owning the longest winning streak of any of the four teams that have reached the semifinals, momentum is building for Notre Dame (13-1, Ind), who stand just one win away from reaching the National Title Game, which is an awfully big deal for one of the most successful programs in the history of the sport. With thirteen national championships to their credit, the Fighting Irish haven’t tasted that kind of glory in quite a long time, with their last such triumph coming thirty-seven years ago. While they’ve experienced their share of ups and downs over the last three decades, there is a feeling about this current group that has been felt in quite some time. Credit to (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman for taking over a team that his predecessor openly admitted that he couldn’t beat elite programs with and taking them to another level. Sure, there were some missteps early in the form of a stunning 16-14 upset at the hands of Northern Illinois, but since then you would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive side. During this current 12-game run, the Irish have averaged 40.9 points on a robust 420.9 total yards with a takeaway margin of +18. Indeed, (Senior Quarterback) Riley Leonard and (Offensive Coordinator) overcame a slow start after transitioning from Duke and LSU respectively, though have clearly settled into a beautiful rhythm that is paying major dividends. Notre Dame manhandled upstart (No. 8) Indiana in the first round of the Playoff, before doing what their former head coach stated couldn’t be done: beating an elite SEC opponent. That’s right, folks, the Irish toppled (No. 2) Georgia in last week’s Sugar Bowl, a 23-10 triumph that stands as their first win over a top-3 adversary since 2020. Granted, the Bulldogs were forced to start a backup quarterback, but their opponent took no pity on them, shipping 296 total yards, including a season-low sixty-two rushing yards. For all the talk about offense, this one was nothing short of a good old-fashioned defensive struggle, as neither side managed to exceed 300 total yards, with the game ultimately coming down to turnovers and special teams. (Senior Linebacker) Jack Kiser and (Freshman Safety) Adon Shuler each forced a fumble, leading to a +2 advantage for ND in that department, while (Marshall transfer) Jayden Harrison made the play of the night with a seismic 98-yard kickoff return to the house, gifting the Irish a commanding 20-3 lead to begin the second half. That would be all the room that Leonard & Co would need, as they grinded out 154 rushing yards on thirty-seven carries. Leonard (pictured below) may not have found much success through the ai with just ninety yards on 15-of-24 passes, but he did find (Clemson transfer) Beaux Collins for a 13-yard touchdown just before halftime, while also rushing for a tough eighty yards on fourteen carries against a defense loaded with future pros. Kiser had a sack to go along with six tackles, while (fellow Linebacker) Junior Tuihalamaka showed out with a sack, 2.5 tackles for loss, and a recovered fumble.
From a betting perspective, Notre Dame enter tonight’s semifinal 13-1 straight-up and have almost been as rewarding against the spread (12-2), parlaying to a net profit of 8.91 units, the highest return of any team left in the Playoff. Winners of twelve consecutive contests since that shocking upset at the hands of Northern Illinois, this is a team that has covered each of their last TEN outings, including last week’s triumph over Georgia (-1). Under the leadership of Freeman, this is a program that is a stellar 28-11 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2022, including 23-10 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers and 20-8 ATS when coming off a SU victory, with SEVEN straight ATS wins in games contested at neutral sites. Furthermore, his troops are on a streak of eight successive covers after shipping fewer than twenty points in the previous tilt, with a 5-0 leger ATS as a favorite in bowls. Speaking of these postseason affairs, the Fighting Irish are 22-18 SU all-time in bowls, with ten victories in their last sixteen appearances, including four in a row. ND is 2-3 SU all-time in the Orange Bowl, with their last showing being a 31-26 loss against Florida State back in 1996. As for Freeman, he is now 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls. Looking at this particular matchup the Irish have crossed paths with Penn State on nineteen occasions, with the series being deadlocked at 9-9-1 SU. Tonight’s showdown on South Beach marks the first time that these programs have met since a home-and-home series contested between 2006 and 2007, which saw each side win on their home field. For those wondering just how long ago that really was, the likes of (former stars) Brady Quinn, Jeff Samardzija, Jimmy Clauson and Tom Zbikowski were sporting those golden helmets. Quinn shredded the Nittany Lions for 287 yards and three touchdowns on 25-of-36 passing in a 41-17 romp in South Bend, while Clason was relegated to 144 yads and an interception in a 31-10 loss a year later in Happy Valley. Coming into this semifinal, the public seems to be firmly backing the Irish, with roughly 64% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread, while a smaller share of the overall money changing hands is following suit (58%). On the injury front, Freeman’s charges arrive at Hard Rock Stadium at full strength with a clean bill of health. Looking ahead, a win tonight, will propel Notre Dame to their first National Championship Game since getting pummeled by Alabama in the 2013 BCS Championship (42-14), which was coincidentally also played in Miami. They will face either (No. 6) Ohio State or (No. 3) Texas, whom they are a combined 11-9 against all-time.
Meanwhile, if there was an “easy” path to the semifinals, then Penn State (13-2, 8-1 in BIG 10) has clearly been the recipient of it, besting the likes of (No. 10) SMU (38-10) and (No. 9) Boise State (31-14) in successive rounds. The Nittany Lions flexed their muscles in these two contests, imposing their physicality on both sides of the football to great effect. (Head Coach) James Franklin’s troops outrushed the Mustangs and Broncos 405-166, logging a healthy 5.0 yards per carry along the way, as the backfield tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen were nothing short of dominant. Coupled with a pair of stingy showings from (Defensive Coordinator) Tom Allen’s defense, who shipped a combined twenty-four points with seven takeaways (scoring a pair of touchdowns, by the way), and these cats have found their recipe for success. However, as impressive as these wins were, they’ve likely done very little to dispel the narrative around this team when it comes to competing against the elite programs in the country, whom they’ve oftentimes struggled against. Needless to say, that has been quite a problem in a conference such as the BIG 10, which in addition to traditional powerhouses such as Michigan and Ohio State, now count the nation’s top-ranked team, Oregon, among its residents. During his eleven years with the program, Franklin is a stellar 101-41 (.711) against all opponents, including six seasons of 10+ wins, and reaching the top-8 of the rankings in nine successive campaigns, though have nonetheless come just short of advancing to the Playoff until this year. Again, it boils down to an inability to beat the best; Franklin is 17-27 (.386) versus ranked opponents since 2014, including 5-20 (.200) against top-10 foes, with a 4-17 (.190) ledger against the Wolverines and Buckeyes (only one of those wins came against a top-10 adversary). Unfortunately, it has been more of the same this Fall, with the Lions’ lone two losses coming against Ohio State (20-13) and most recently Oregon (45-37) in the BIG 10 Title Game, with those schools coincidentally ranked sixth and first overall at the moment. In an attempt to get over the proverbial hump, Franklin brought in (Offensive Coordinator) Andy Kotelnicki to improve the attack, with designs on becoming for diverse and explosive. While Kotelnicki’s approach has worked wonders with (Sophomore Quarterback) Drew Allar, it has been very telling that this unit remains at their best when they are handing the ball off and rushing the football. On the season, PSU have churned out 202.0 yads per game on 5.3 yards per carry, with the dynamic duo of Singleton and Allen (pictured below) becoming the only pair of teammates in the FBS to rush for 1,000 yards apiece. Allen leads the way with 1,026 yards on 201 carries, while Singleton paces the team in rushing touchdowns (9) and yards from scrimmage (1,357). These two have been instrumental in their run through this Playoff, combining for 160 yards and three touchdowns against Southern Methodist, before trampling Boise State to the tune of 221 yards and one score. Perhaps it was the competition of facing off against the nation’s leading rusher, Ashton Jeanty, but the tandem ran with aggression and ambition throughout that quarterfinal triumph. It will be interesting to see how they match up with Notre Dame’s strong run defense, for it will be imperative that Kotelnicki establishes a consistent ground game, so that Allar and the passing game can find room to operate downfield.
From a betting perspective, Penn State may come into tonight’s semifinal at a stellar 13-2 straight-up, but they have been little more than mediocre against the spread (8-7), parlaying to a net profit of 0.27 units. This is a team that is in the midst of only their second stretch of back-to-back covers this season, beating the spread in each of their two playoff appearances thus far against SMU (-9) and Boise State (-12.5). Under the direction of Franklin, this is a program that is 76-59-4 versus the spread since he arrived in Happy Valley back in 2014, including 9-5 ATS on neutral fields over the past decade, 13-18 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 58-32 ATS following a SU victory, and 25-14 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10. Furthermore, his troops are 20-6 ATS when following consecutive SU/ATS wins, while riding a 5-game streak of covers in games played on natural grass. However, being an underdog has NOT suited these cats of late, for they have failed to cover their last four tilts when receiving points, with five spread defeats in a row as a dog between 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight. All-time, the Nittany Lions are 33-20-2 SU in bowls (.600), including 6-5 under Franklin’s watch, with a 4-1 mark in the Orange Bowl, with their last postseason appearance on South Beach also coming against Florida State, a spirited 26-23 affair in 2006 that required overtime to crown a victor. As we covered earlier, the all-time series between these two programs is currently level at 9-9-1 SU, with the most recent encounter being a 31-10 victory at Beaver Stadium nearly eighteen years ago. This one featured some great linebackers from a program that is no stranger to producing them, including the likes of Dan Conner, Sean Lee, and Navorro Bowman, who combined for eighteen tackles, three for loss, a pair of sacks and a deflected pass in the win. Judging by the action thus far, the public doesn’t believe that these Lions will snap out of their funk against top-tier adversaries, as only 32% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing PSU, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit (37%). Looking ahead, a win tonight and Penn State will be off to their first appearance in a National Championship Game since 1986, which was coincidentally when they won their fourth and most recent National Title. With either the Buckeyes or Longhorns on deck, it is worth noting that the Nittany Lions are a combined 16-28 against those programs all-time.