7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ohio State -6.0, Total: 53.5
The second National Semifinal takes us to Arlington, where the (No. 6) Ohio State Buckeyes battle the (No. 3) Texas Longhorns in a showdown between bluebloods in the Cotton Bowl from AT&T Stadium for the right to participate in next week’s national championship game. This expanded Playoff means many different things to its participants, but for Ohio State (12-2, 7-2 in BIG 10), this dance is about one thing and one thing only: redemption. For a fourth consecutive season, the Buckeyes have fallen to Michigan, with this latest defeat easily the most disappointing. Indeed, after watching their foes win the national championship last January, everything aligned for the axis in this rivalry to be turned on its head. First, the Wolverines bid farewell to their head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and a slew of starters, including nine on the offensive side of the ball alone, and as a result stumbled through an uneven campaign with a 6-5 ledger coming into the matchup. Second, OSU appeared to have stocked up with this game in mind; (Head Coach) Ryan Day tapped into the Transfer Portal in a major way, spending nearly $20 million in NIL funds on the likes of (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs, bolstering a roster featuring a bevy of SIXTEEN returning starters who were all hungry for some payback. Unfortunately, they came up short in two of their biggest games of the Fall, a narrow 32-31 affair at (No. 1) Oregon, followed a month later by their fourth consecutive loss to (bitter rival) Michigan in the season finale. Many around the sport were calling for Day’s head, with multiple media outlets reporting that his position within the program was under fire. With that in mind, he and his troops took control of the narrative and have thus rewritten it completely, hammering (No. 7) Tennessee (42-17) and most recently the Ducks (41-21) to reach their first semifinal since 2020. In these two victories, Ohio State outgained those two adversaries by an average margin of 220.5 total yards, exhibiting dominance on both sides of the football. (Offensive Coordinator) Chip Kelly and (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles have proven their value of late, with the offense erupting for 973 yards, including 63 through the air, while the defense has held both opponents below 300 total yards, despite not forcing a single turnover. While the win over the Volunteers was impressive in its own right, the sweet revenge that they served to Oregon was another matter entirely. After conceding season-highs in points (32), total yards (496), and passing yards (341), OSU all but shut the Ducks down, relegating the BIG 10 champions to 276 yards, including -23 rushing yards. This one was ALL BUCKEYES in the first half, as the Scarlet & Gray scored the first THRITY-FOUR points of the afternoon until their opponent finally got on the board a touchdown and two-point conversion of their own just before halftime. (Freshman Wideout) Jeremiah Smith was the star of the show, reeling in a pair of touchdowns of 40+ yards en route to finishing the game with a whopping 187 yards on seven receptions. (Senior Receiver) Emeka Egbuka hauled in five catches for seventy-two yards and a 42-yard score of his own, while (Senior Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson needed only eight carries to rush for ninety-four yards and two touchdowns. As for Howard (pictured below), this win was particularly vindicating given his miscues on clock management in the previous matchup with Oregon; the Kansas State transfer was dealing with 319 yards and those three touchdowns on 17-of-26 passing. Defensively, Ohio State sacked (Heisman finalist) Dillon Gabriel EIGHT times, with (seniors) Cody Simon, J.T. Tuimoloao, and Jack Sawyer each logging a pair of sacks.
From a betting perspective, Ohio State may enter tonight’s semifinal at 12-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (8-6), parlaying to a net profit of 1.27 units. This is a team that is in the midst of back-to-back covers for only the second time this season, beating the spread in each of their playoff matchups thus far against Tennessee (-7.5) and Oregon (-2.5). Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is 42-32-3 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2019, including 37-29 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 32-24 ATS when following a SU victory, 9-12 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10, and 3-6 in games contested at neutral sites. Furthermore, the Buckeyes are 2-8 ATS when favored by less than twenty-eight points against non-conference foes, which is the case tonight. All-time, OSU is 25-23 SU in bowls, including a middling 11-10 in their last twenty-one such postseason appearances. Looking at this particular matchup, Ohio State trails the all-time series with Texas 1-2, with their most recent meeting taking place in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl, a 24-21 defeat which saw the Scarlet & Gray rally back from a 17-6 deficit only to blow a 21-17 lead with just over two minutes left. The Buckeyes outrushed the Longhorns 203-54, but were torched to the tune of 468 total yards, and were completely unable to keep their opponent from moving the ball through the air. (Former stars) Terrelle Pryor and Chris “Beanie” Wells were the standouts in this one, with the former rushing for seventy-eight yards on fifteen carries, while the latter accumulated 106 yards on sixteen rushes. Given their current run of form, it is understandable that the public is backing Brutus & Co in tonight’s showdown in Arlington, as roughly 61% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with OSU, with a slightly larger share of all the money changing hands thus far following suit (65%). On the injury front, Day is once again without two studs on the offensive line, (Junior Left Tackle) Josh Simmons and the aforementioned McLaughlin, who have both been lost for the season due to respective injuries. Looking ahead, if Ohio State prove victorious tonight, then they will be competing for a national title against either (No. 4) Penn State or (No. 5) Notre Dame, whom they are a combined 32-15 against. It should be noted that the Buckeyes bested the Nittany Lions in a tightly contested 20-13 affair in Happy Valley back on November 2nd.
Meanwhile, if their opponent is surging then Texas (12-2, 7-1 in SEC) is looking for answers, which isn’t something that is associated with a team coming off a victory in the quarterfinals of the Playoff. Nevertheless, this is where we find the Longhorns, who despite eliminating a very dangerous (No. 12) Arizona State side last week, were pushed to the limit in overtime. Indeed, there was a palpable sense of anxiety in that 39-31 affair, particularly when you consider just how fragile (Head Coach) Steve Sarkisian’s troops appeared to be, as it felt as if they narrowly avoided the upset rather than won the game. The Horns looked like they might run away with this one, taking a 17-3 lead into halftime on the strength of a 23-yard touchdown pass from (Junior Quarterback) Quinn Ewers to (Sophomore Wideout) DeAndre Moore, followed by a 75-yard punt return to the house courtesy of (Oregon State transfer) Silas Bolden. However, the Sun Devils would go on a 21-7 run after intermission, as Sarkisian’s attack lost its rhythm, falling victim to a safety, an interception, and a pair of missed field goals, including a 38-yard potential game-winner at regulation came to a close. Texas was even gifted with a controversial non-call on what appeared to be a blatant targeting penalty on their opponent’s final possession of regulation, which forced the Devils to punt the ball back to the Longhorns. After trading touchdowns in the first overtime, Ewers (pictured below) would toss his third score of the afternoon, this time to (Senior Tight End) Gunnar Helm, before hitting (Houston transfer) Matthew Golden with the ensuing two-point conversion. From there, (Senior Safety) Andrew Mukuba ended the affair with an interception, punching his team’s ticket to Arlington. When it was all said and done, Sarkisian’s charges amassed 375 total yards on seventeen first downs, though were held to just fifty-three rushing yards on thirty carries, relying on the arm of Ewers to save the day. The Ohio State transfer has at times been a polarizing figure during his tenure in Austin, though he proved his value on this day, completing 20-of-30 passes for 322 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, while rushing for another score to boot. Golden, who hauled in seven receptions for 149 yards, caught the 28-yard lifeline on a fourth-and-13 to force the second extra period, while (Sophomore Tailback) Tre Wisner accumulated eighty-five yards from scrimmage on twenty-two touches. The alarms that you’ve been hearing in the state of Texas have been due to the play of the defense, which after relinquishing just 14.5 points (4th in FBS) on 277.7 total yards this season, were repeatedly gashed for a season-high 510 total yards, most of which came in the second half. (Defensive Coordinator) Pete Kwiatkowski has done a tremendous job with this unit in 2024, but this performance, coupled with the 412 yards they shipped to (No. 16) Clemson, has many around the program sweating bullets in lieu of their upcoming matchup with the high-powered Buckeyes. But getting back to Ewers, it should be interesting to see how handles the pressure of facing his former school. In one season in Columbus, he didn’t throw a single pass as he competed to backup C.J. Stroud, opting to transfer to Texas for the opportunity to play under Sarkisian. 27-8 in his three years with the Longhorns, the San Antonio native has thrown for 8,845 yards and sixty-six touchdowns, though has been uneven at times this season, tossing nearly half of his career interceptions (23) while also dealing with injury and the intense pressure of the fanbase looking for any reason to turn the reins over to (super recruit) Arch Manning. Needless to say, this a big game for the veteran QB.
From a betting perspective, Texas may come into this semifinal 13-2 straight-up, but they too haven’t been very rewarding against the spread (8-7), parlaying to a net profit of just 0.27 units. After covering their first four games of the season, this is a team that has failed to cover back-to-back outings in their final eleven contests (4-7 ATS), splitting their two playoff tilts thus far against Clemson (-13.5) and Arizona State (-13.5). Under the direction of Sarkisian, this is a program that is 28-25-1 versus the spread since he arrived in Austin back in 2021, including 2-4 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, a mediocre 15-16 ATS following a SU victory, 11-6 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the conference he calls home, be it the BIG XII or SEC, and 2-4 ATS in all games contested at neutral sites. Furthermore, his troops have failed to cover seven in a row versus adversaries coming off back-to-back SU/ATS victories, which is the case tonight. The Longhorns are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games after allowing 200+ rushing yards, which is the case tonight as well. All-time, the Longhorns are 32-24-2 SU in bowls, including 15-6 over their last twenty-one appearances in these events, with their last trip to the Playoff ending at the semifinal stage in last year’s 37-31 loss to Washington. As we touched upon earlier, Bevo & Co have the upper hand in the all-time series between these programs, winning two out of three encounters, including that aforementioned 24-21 affair in the 2009 Fiesta Bowl. The Horns moved the ball up and down the field on the Buckeyes, amassing a whopping 468 total yards on the night, including 414 on the right arm of (former QB) Colt McCoy, who completed 41-of-58 passes with three total touchdowns (1 rushing), including 26-yard strike to (former Wideout) Quan Cosby to effectively win the game with just sixteen seconds left. Cosby hauled in fourteen catches for 171 yards and two scores, while (fellow Receiver) Jordan Shipley caught ten balls for seventy-eight yards of his own. After their close call against the Sun Devils, the public’s faith in Sark & Co has cooled considerably, with approximately 18% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread wearing burnt orange, while an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (14%). Looking ahead, if Texas leaves AT&T Stadium with a victory tonight, then they will be competing in a national final for the first time since 2010, when they were bested by Alabama in the BCS Championship Game, 37-21. It should be noted that the Longhorns are a combined 5-12 all-time against the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions.