4:30 PM EST, CBS/Paramount+ – Spread: Chargers -3.0, Total: 42.5
With the regular season finally in the books, the NFL Playoffs begin in earnest as the surging Los Angeles Chargers look to flush out their bitter postseason memories in this trip to NRG Stadium, where the Houston Texans look to once again rely on some home cooking advance to beyond the Wild Card Round. If there was one team in the league that was in dire need of a dramatic culture change, it was easily the Chargers (11-6, 2nd in AFC West), who spiraled to a disappointing 5-12 finish last season, prompting the franchise to make wholesale changes. For years, this had been a team that never quite measured up to their potential on paper, routinely proving to be less than total sum of their parts, with boneheaded turnovers, confounding game management, and a litany of high-profile collapses marring their ledger over the past decade. So, how does one fix such problems, you ask? You hire Jm Harbaugh to be your head coach, that’s what you do. If there is a greater, more immediate culture changer in the NFL, we would like you to pick him out, for the 61-year-old has done the same thing that he did in San Francisco and Ann Arbor, turning around a talented team that lacked substance by streamlining the gameplan and the roster. Criticize the guy for being too old-school, but he gets results; under his watch, Los Angeles has improved by six games this season, largely by playing efficient, high-percentage offense, and stout defense. After jettisoning many of weapons in the passing game, Harbaugh and (Offensive Coordinator) Greg Roman opted to keep things grounded with a bolstered offensive line paving the way for a more balanced attack, even with the prolific Justin Herbert at quarterback. Many around the league thought that taking the ball out of the hands of a guy that had thrown for more yards than any other player in NFL history through the first four years of their career was folly, but it allowed Herbert (pictured below alongside Harbaugh) to reboot himself, leading to his most efficient campaign to date, tossing twenty-three touchdowns to just three interceptions. (Rookies) Ladd McConkey and Joe Alt have performed well beyond their years, with the former hauling in eighty-two receptions for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns, while the later has anchored the right flank of the offensive line. Furthermore, (veteran Tailback) J.K. Dobbins has rekindled his once promising career after a series of knee injuries, rushing for 905 yards and nine scores in thirteen games. This is the time of the season where you want to be peaking, which is exactly what this unit is doing during this current 3-game win streak, averaging a robust 36.0 points on 427.0 total yards, including 293.3 yards through the air. Furthermore, the defense has made tremendous strides under (Defensive Coordinator) Jessie Minter, who arrived alongside Harbaugh from Michigan. No team has relinquished fewer points than these Bolts (17.7), who have been the stingiest group in the red zone (45.0%), with their twenty-one takeaways (13th Overall) parlaying to a healthy turnover differential of +12 (3rd Overall). To complete this dramatic turnaround, there is a sense that the Chargers will need to make an impact in these playoffs, washing away the failure that was their seismic collapse in the 2022 Wild Card. Of course, Los Angeles traveled to Northern Florida where they raced out to a commanding 27-0 lead against the Jaguars, only to completely fall apart en route to a stunning 31-30 defeat. Los Angeles was outscored 31-3 the rest of the way, as Herbert & Co could muster just 152 total yards after scoring their third touchdown of the first half, with (veteran Kicker) Cameron Dicker’s missed 40-yard field goal attempt leading directly to a touchdown and 2-point conversion that cut the deficit to two points. From there, a quick three-and-out from the visitors set up the game-winning drive, as Jacksonville drilled a 36-yarder to claim victory. For many within the organization that performance hung over their heads like a black cloud last season, leading to the dismissal of (former Head Coach) Brandon Staley. For Harbaugh, the only way to properly rid his team of the stench of that defeat is to continue to change the narrative and capture the franchise’s first playoff win since 2018.
From a betting perspective, the Chargers may enter the postseason 11-6 straight-up, but they have been even more rewarding against the spread (12-4-1), returning a net profit of 6.91 units, which is the most of any team in this playoff field. Since their early bye week back in October, this is a team that has covered TEN out of thirteen contests, including each of their last three outings to close the regular season. Under the direction of Harbaugh, this is a franchise that 12-4-1 versus the spread, including a commanding 11-2 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 7-2 ATS away from the city of angels, 7-3 ATS following a SU victory, 3-2 ATS after back-to-back wins, and 7-4 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Dating back to his time with the 49ers, his troops have really handled their business against non-division adversaries, posting a stellar 38-17 ledger ATS in such contests. Los Angeles has also covered each of their last five ventures away from SoFi Stadium. As for Herbert, he is 24-15 ATS on the road, 28-22 ATS as a favorite, 20-17 ATS after a SU win, 9-8 ATS following back-to-back victories, and 26-25 ATS against non-division foes. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bolts own a 6-3 advantage in the all-time series with the Texans, winning the most recent encounter which was a 34-24 affair in Southern Texas back in 2022. Herbert & Co started quickly, racing out to a 21-0 lead on the strength of a pair of rushing scores courtesy of (former Tailback) Austin Ekeler, though Houston would rally back with seventeen unanswered points in the second half to cut the deficit to three points. However, Herbert would engineer a 12-play, 84-yard drive bleeding over six minutes off the clock, culminating in a 14-yard touchdown toss to Ekeler. When it was all said and done, the visitors racked up 419 total yards on twenty-two first downs, converted 8-of-16 third downs and one of their attempts on fourth down, while winning the takeaway battle 2-1. Herbert completed 27-of-39 passes for 340 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while Ekeler amassed 109 yards from scrimmage and three scores on nineteen touches, with (former Wideout) Mike Williams erupting for seven receptions, for 120 yards. Defensively, the Chargers logged four sacks from as many different players, ten QB hits, and thirteen pressures, along with a pair of interceptions. Over the course of his career, Herbert has faced the Texans twice, splitting the two affairs, completing 72.9% of his throws for an average of 338.0 yards on 9.00 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns opposed to two interceptions. Even with their recent history in playoffs, the public is drinking the Harbaugh Kool-Aid, folks, as approximately 67% of all wagers placed upon today’s spread are siding with the Bolts, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered is following suit (64%). On the injury front, Harbaugh currently has a dozen players sitting on injured reserve, including (young Safety) Elijah Molden due to a broken fibula. As for the rest of the team, (veteran Tailback) Gus Edwards (ankle), (Linebacker) Denzel Perryman (groin), and (underrated Receiver) Josh Palmer (foot) are all out of action with various maladies, while (veteran Safety) Alohi Gilman, who was recently recalled from IR to replace Molden, is listed as questionable with a tender hamstring. Looking ahead, if the Chargers manage to win their first playoff game in six years, then they will remain on the road in the division round with their destination to be determined.
Meanwhile, as their opponent surges into the postseason, the Texans (10-7, 1st in AFC South) find themselves in a very different headspace altogether. For a second consecutive season they have finished the campaign 10-7 with a division crown in hand, hosting a playoff against an opponent packing plenty of momentum. However, whereas last January this was a young overachieving team that was simply looking to make a name for themselves, this current group has been a bit of a mess for months. So, what in the name of David Carr has happened in South Texas, you ask? Well, following their surprise run to a division title, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans and (General Manager) Nick Caserio did the sensible thing and opted to use their cap space to surround (Offensive Rookie of the Year) C.J. Stroud with plenty of support, adding veteran playmakers such as (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Stefon Diggs, (1,000-yard rusher) Joe Mixon, and (Pro-Bowl Edge-Rusher) Danielle Hunter via free agency and trade. We’ve seen this blueprint pay major dividends to past Super Bowl Champions, as Houston looked like a dark horse contender for the Lombardi Trophy…. at least on paper. For a variety of reasons, this team has failed to live up to their considerable hype, backing into this postseason with five wins in their last eleven outings, due in large part to the continued ineptitude of their division, which between the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts own a combined record of 15-36 (.294). Hell, the fact that half of their ten wins have come against their fellow AFC South residents, should inform you what kind of season it has been for the Texans. Despite the bolstered firepower on offense, this has been a terribly uneven unit, ranking nineteenth in points (21.9), twenty-second (319.7) in total yards, twenty-first in passing (207.4), twenty-sixth in net yards per attempt (5.7), and fifteenth in both rushing (112.2) and yards per carry (4.4). With injuries ravaging the receiving corps and the offensive line continuing to struggle, Stroud (pictured below) has regressed in his sophomore season, completing fewer passes (63.2%), throwing for fewer yards (219.2) and tossing more than twice as many interceptions (12). Furthermore, his protection has been less than ideal, with his fifty-two sacks representing an increase of fourteen in just two more games, while his net yards per attempt spiraled downward from 7.03 to 5.68. A year after ranking in the middle of the pack on third down (37.9%) and in the red zone (54.7%), the offense as a whole has been significantly worse in both departments this season, converting 37.7% on third down (20th Overall) and breaching the end zone on just 49.1% of their trips within the 20-yard area (26th Overall). During this 11-game stretch, the 23-year-old has been in a malaise, completing 59.8% of his throws for just 195.5 yards on 5.75 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns in comparison to eleven total turnovers. Furthermore, THIRTY-SIX sacks have come within that period, which has made it difficult for the young gunslinger to wait for deeper routes to develop downfield. What (Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik needs to do is take the pressure off his QB and establish the run, which worked so well for them earlier in the season. Prior to last weekend’s 23-14 victory over the Titans in which they rushed for 207 yards (their most since the opener), this was a ground game that was held to a mere 73.0 yards per game in the previous three contests. Stroud averaged a healthy 11.0 yards per attempt on play action last season, only to net 8.36 yards per play-action pass this year, which is a direct reflection of opponents not honoring the threat of the run. Despite missing three games early in the season to injury, Mixon rushed for 1,016 yards and eleven touchdowns though it feels he needs to play a larger role in the offense.
From a betting perspective, the Texans may enter this postseason at a respectable 10-7 straight-up, but they haven’t been very rewarding against the spread (7-10), parlaying to a net loss of 3.64 units. This has been a difficult team to get a read on all season, as they began the campaign with four consecutive losses versus the spread only to turn right around and cover three in a row. They have also managed to win five games without covering the spread, which is the most of any team in this playoff field. Under the leadership of Ryans, this is a franchise that is 17-19 ATS since he was hired last season, including 8-10 ATS at NRG Stadium, 10-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-11 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 12-12 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops are 7-4 ATS following an encounter with a division foe, 0-4 ATS in their past four outings after shipping fewer than fifteen points in the previous game, and 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff ventures in which they are an underdog, with all three trends proving relevant this evening. As for Stroud, he is 8-9 ATS at home, 6-8 ATS as a dog, 9-10 ATS following a SU win, and 12-1 ATS versus non-division adversaries, while his most rewarding role has been as a home dog (4-2 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, Houston has won just three of their nine all-time meetings with the Chargers, though have taken three of the last four encounters. That was not in the case in that aforementioned 34-24 affair from two years ago; the Texans roared back from an early 27-7 deficit with seven unanswered points in the second half, though were unable to keep the Bolts from breaching the end zone inside of the two-minute warning, while (backup QB) Davis Mills’ last gasp effort was intercepted to end the game. When it was all said and done, the hosts were outgained 419-346 in total yards despite owning a clear advantage on the ground (131-81), though ultimately capitulated due to a pair of interceptions of Mills and two failed attempts on fourth down. Mills did complete 26-of-35 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns as well, while (young Tailback) Dameon Pierce accounted for all of his side’s rushing yards (131) on just fourteen carries, ripping off a 75-yard jaunt to the end zone midway through the second quarter. Getting back to Stroud, he has split his two games in the playoffs, completing 64.8% of his throws for an average of 224.5 yards on 8.31 net yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Given their recent form, it is understandable that the public isn’t very bullish on Ryans & Co, as roughly 33% of all wagers placed upon today’s spread are riding with the home team, with a slightly larger share of the total volume of money changing hands following suit (36%). On the injury front, Ryans has thirteen different players languishing on injured reserve, including (Wideouts) Diggs (knee) and Tank Dell (knee), along with (Safeties) Jalen Pitre (pectoral) and Jimmie Ward (foot). As for the rest of the team, (Defensive Linemen) Denico Autry (knee) and Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) are out of action, while (veteran Guard) Shaq Mason (knee) will join them. (Young Linebacker) Christian Harris, who made his season debut last month against the Dolphins, is listed as questionable due to a tender ankle. Looking ahead, if the Texans manage to advance to the division round for a second consecutive year, their opponent has yet to be determined.