8:00 PM EST, Prime Video – Spread: Ravens -10.0, Total: 43.5
Bitter rivals renew acquaintances while traveling in very different directions, as the fading Pittsburgh Steelers look to begin with a clean slate now that that they have reached the playoffs, while the surging Baltimore Ravens look to dispatch their longtime adversaries en route to reaching Super Bowl LIX. It appears that the proverbial rose has lost its bloom for the Steelers (10-7, 2nd in AFC North), who for all intents and purposes have backed into this postseason, suffering four consecutive defeats for only the third time in the last decade under (Head Coach) Mike Tomlin. Indeed, the veteran taskmaster opted to roll the dice back in October with a transition at quarterback, benching Justin Fields, who had led the team to a 4-2 start, in favor of Russell Wilson, whom the franchise signed as free agent after a very ugly breakup in Denver. Essentially, the Broncos opted to eat $84 million in dead money to part ways with the 36-year-old, allowing the veteran to land in Pittsburgh, where his tenure hit a major roadblock due to a serious calf bruise that sidelined him for nearly two months. However, once he returned to health, Tomlin decided it was time for a change, which paid immediate dividends for the Black & Yellow; Wilson (pictured below alongside Tomlin) would go on to win six of his first seven starts, igniting a sluggish passing game along the way, averaging 33.1 points on a robust 372.8 total yards in those victories. Unfortunately, he and his teammates couldn’t keep the ball rolling in this regard as they faced stiffer competition, losing their final four games to the likes of the Eagles (13-27), Ravens (17-34), Chiefs (10-29), and Bengals (17-19), failing to score twenty points in any of those affairs. During this stretch, the offense has come crashing back down to Earth, posting a disappointing 14.2 points per game on a meager 258.8 total yards, with Wilson contributing just 146.5 yards through the air on 4.3 net yards per attempt, with four touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions. Look no further than last weekend’s finale against Cincinnati, whose defense had been one of the worst in the NFL throughout the campaign for concrete proof of their struggles. Pittsburgh mustered just 193 total yards on sixteen first downs, converting a third of their attempts on third down (4-of-12), and were turned away twice on fourth down. The ground game never got rolling with seventy-four yards on twenty-three carries, while Wilson completed 17-of-31 passes for a mediocre 148 yards, and a 19-yard touchdown to (veteran Tight End) Pat Freiermuth to cut the deficit to five points midway through the fourth quarter. However, as they drew within two points and the defense got the ball back to the hosts on the ensuing possession, Wilson & Co simply couldn’t do anything with it, driving no further than their own 40-yard line; the veteran signal-caller missed a wide-open (young Receiver) George Pickens down the right sideline, before his final attempt to Freiermuth was batted down to end the game altogether. It was the latest in a string of tough performances for Wilson, who was pressured on 24.9% of his drop-backs, hit on three occasions, and sacked four times, while four of his throws were off target and three were dropped by the intended receiver. Ditto for Pickens, who hauled in only ONE of his six targets for ZERO yards, while (veteran Tailback) Najee Harris was forced to depart early due to injury despite averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. This really does set up an interesting offseason narrative for the Steelers, who were also 10-7 last season. With both Wilson and Fields out of contract in a few weeks, will either return? What will Tomlin do after gambling with such an important position? Will (Offensive Coordinator) Arthur Smith be back? What kind of changes will be made to a stellar yet aging defense? This is going to be a significant offseason in Pittsburgh, folks, regardless of their campaign ending tonight or in the coming weeks.
From a betting perspective, the Steelers may have backed into the playoffs at 10-7 straight-up, but they have been a more rewarding side against the spread (11-6), parlaying to a net profit of 4.00 units. This is a team that started the campaign strong, covering TEN of their first thirteen contests only to cool off considerably of late with three straight losses versus the spread, before getting back into bettors’ good graces with a narrow cover as 2.5-point underdogs in last weekend’s loss to the Bengals (19-17). Under the leadership of Tomlin, this is a franchise that is 158-141-11 ATS since he arrived in Western Pennsylvania back in 2007, including 75-73 ATS away from Acrisure Stadium, 59-37 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 47-53 ATS when harboring revenge, 59-45 ATS following a SU loss, and 62-46 ATS against their fellow residents in the AFC North. Furthermore, his troops are 33-14 ATS versus an opponent coming off back-to-back SU victories, including 14-2 in such games against division foes, which is the case tonight. They have also covered THIRTEEN of their last sixteen outings as dogs versus a division foe fresh off back-to-back SU wins. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for Pittsburgh has failed to cover four consecutive games as both a dog and a road dog of 10.5 or more points. As for Wilson, the veteran is a middling 51-51 ATS on the road, 44-26 ATS as a dog, 45-39 ATS with revenge, 40-28 ATS following a SU defeat, 17-6 ATS coming off back-to-back losses, and 40-36 ATS versus the rest of his division. All-time, this is a franchise that is 36-28 SU in the playoffs, though as we stated earlier, it has been quite a while since they have tasted victory at this stage, with five straight postseason losses dating back to 2016. They own a 33-25 SU record in the all-time series with the Ravens, winning six of the last seven encounters, while taking three of their four meetings in the playoffs. The Steelers split their two affairs this season, with each side winning at home, with their latest clash ending in a 34-17 defeat in Baltimore. As is usually the case with these bitter rivals, this matchup was as tightly contested as ever with the score level at 17-17 midway through the third period. However, after the Blackbirds responded with a touchdown on the ensuing drive, the visitors turned it over on downs at midfield, only to turn the tables with an interception courtesy of (Pro-Bowl Safety) Minkah Fitzpatrick in the end zone. Unfortunately, Tomlin’s charges couldn’t stand prosperity as Wilson gave the ball right back to the hosts with a pick-six to (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Marlon Humphrey, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, Pittsburgh was outgained 419-315 in total yards, 220-117 on the ground, 25-19 in first downs, and lost the takeaway battle which was so crucial to their victory at home earlier in the season. Wilson completed 22-of-33 passes for 217 yards, two touchdowns and that seismic interception, while suffering three sacks and losing a fumble. Over the course of his stellar career, the 9-time Pro-Bowler is 9-7 in the playoffs, completing 60.9% of his throws for an average of 236.6 yards on 7.73 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to a dozen interceptions, while rushing for another 32.9 yards per contest with three more scores and one lost fumble. Furthermore, he is 4-2 all-time on Wild Card Weekend, logging nine total scores in comparison to committing just two turnovers. Given the nature of their rivalry and the size of tonight’s spread, the public remains deadlocked at 50/50 in terms of wagers placed upon the spread, while the total sum of money changing hands is in a similar way. On the injury front, Tomlin has ten different players languishing on injured reserve, including three offensive linemen. As for the rest of the team, (young Linebacker) Cole Holcomb has been limited with a nagging knee injury and will miss this rematch in Baltimore, while (veteran Cornerback) Donte Jackson, who had a rough night against the Bengals last weekend, has been dealing with an ailing back and is thus listed as questionable. Looking ahead, if the Steelers manage to pull the upset, then they will be off to the Division Round for the first time in seven years, though it remains to be seen whom their opponent will be.
Meanwhile, the Ravens (12-5, 1st in AFC North) have had no such troubles of late, winning each of their last four games since returning from a late bye week en route to capturing their second consecutive division title. This looks like the team that was steamrolling opponents last year, with these four wins coming by a sizable margin of 23.0 points, with their high-powered offense firing on all cylinders while the defense has rounded into form following a slow start. Beginning with (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson & Co, Baltimore has been one of the most prolific attacks in NFL history, folks, averaging 30.5 points (3rd Overall) on an insane 424.9 total yards (1st Overall), including 237. 3 yards through the air (7th Overall) on a robust 8.1 net yards per attempt (1st Overall), and 187.5 yards on the ground (1st Overall) on 5.8 yards per carry (1st Overall), while converting 48.2% of their third downs (3rd Overall) and breaching the end zone on a healthy 74.2% of their trips within the 20-yard area (1st Overall). In comparison to either of his previous MVP campaigns, Jackson (pictured below) has enjoyed a career season, completing 66.7% of his throws for 245.4 yards per game on a league-high 8.09 net yards per attempt, a personal-best FORTY-ONE touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions, all the while posting the top QBR in the NFL (77.5). Oh, and he remains a nightmare to deal with when he decides to tuck it and run, gashing opponents for another 915 yards and four scores, while leading the league in yards per carry (6.6) for the fourth time in the last six years. With the addition of (three-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry, who continues to defy father time with 1,921 rushing yards and sixteen touchdowns, this unit has been an embarrassment of riches for (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken, whose creative designs and playcalling has certainly gotten the most out of this side of the football. However, if there was weakness on this team early on, it would have to be the defense, but let’s give credit to (Head Coach) John Harbaugh for sticking with (first-year Defensive Coordinator) Zach Orr as the former Linebacker has successfully turned around this unit. Through the first ten games, the Blackbirds were shipping 25.3 points on 367.9 total yards, including an insufferable 294.9 yards against the pass, yielding twenty-two touchdowns opposed to logging just six interceptions. Keep in mind that this same group relinquished the fewest points (16.5) while posting the most takeaways (31) a year ago. Admittedly, penalties have been a huge issue as the Ravens have been flagged more than any team in the league (132) for a loss of 1,120 yards and thirty first downs, with the bulk of them coming during that stretch. However, there has been a dramatic shift over the last seven games, as Harbaugh’s troops have allowed a more palatable 15.4 points on 261.7 total yards, including just 171.6 yards versus the pass, even totaling more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5). Like his predecessor, Mike Macdonald, maybe Orr just needed some time to find his footing calling plays, but whatever it was, Baltimore resembles the complete side they were when they entered the 2023 Playoffs as the number one overall seed.
From a betting perspective, the Ravens roll into the playoffs at 12-5 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (10-6-1), parlaying to net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has clearly regained their rhythm following a 2-4 stretch ATS, with four consecutive covers, which have all been as sizable favorites, including -19.5 in last weekend’s romp over the Browns. Under the direction of Harbaugh, this is a franchise that is 156-129-13 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2008, including 68-71-1 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium, 98-93-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 91-71 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 93-80-1 ATS following a SU victory, 52-49 ATS against their fellow resident within the AFC North, and 23-15 ATS after scoring 35+ points, which they have done on seven occasions this season. Baltimore has covered NINE straight games after scoring 35+ points and set to face a division adversary coming off a SU defeat, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, they are 2-10 ATS as favorites of four or more points off a double-digit ATS win, which is also the case with this matchup. As for Jackson, he is 21-27-1 ATS at home, 40-39-1 ATS as a favorite, 38-31-1 ATS following a SU win, 25-20-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU victories, and 17-15-1 ATS versus division foes, while his worst role has come as a home favorite (19-27-1 ATS). All-time, this is a franchise that is 17-13 SU in the playoffs, including a stellar 10-2 SU on Wild Card Weekend. Looking at this particular matchup, the Blackbirds trail the all-time series with Pittsburgh (33-25), with only one win in the last seven meetings, though it should be noted that they have bested them in their most recent postseason encounter, a 30-17 victory in the 2015 Wild Card Playoffs, while also taking their most recent affair, that aforementioned 34-17 win at M&T Bank Stadium on December 21st. The hosts amassed 419 total yards on twenty-five first downs, plowing through the opposing defense to the tune of 220 rushing yards, including 162 yards from Henry, while Jackson completed 15-of-23 passes for 207 yards, three touchdowns and an interception, earning his first-ever victory over the Steelers. (Sophomore Wideout) Zay Flowers reeled in five of eight targets for 100 yards, while Humphrey’s interception return for a score completely flipped the momentum of the contest back into Baltimore’s favor. Getting back to Jackson, one of the few hurdles left in his career is postseason success, which has been hard to come by for the two-time MVP; in six career playoff games, he is just 2-4, completing 57.4% of his throws for an average of 220.7 yards on 5.97 net yards per attempt, with as many touchdowns as interceptions (6), while rushing for another 86.8 yards per contest with three more scores and lost fumbles apiece. Furthermore, his ledger against Pittsburgh hasn’t been much better, with three wins in eight meetings, eight total touchdowns and a dozen turnovers. On the injury front, Harbaugh has seven players on injured reserve, though none are starters, while the only birds to be at risk for tonight’s affair are (Cornerback) Jalyn Armour-Davis (hamstring), (Backup Tailback) Justice Hill (concussion), and (veteran Guard) Patrick Mekari (illness). Looking ahead, if the Ravens take care of their business tonight, then they will be off to the Division Round for a second straight year, though it remains to be seen whom their opponent will be.