1:00 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Bills -8.5, Total: 46.5
Wild Card Weekend rages on into Sunday afternoon, as the Buffalo Bills look to launch yet another attempt of reaching that all-too elusive Lombardi Trophy, while the upstart Denver Broncos find themselves back in playoffs for the first time since hoisting that same piece of hardware a decade ago. It’s been ten long years, but the Broncos (10-7, 3rd in AFC West) have returned to the postseason, with many believing them to be ahead of schedule. Now in his second season with the franchise, (Head Coach) Sean Payton is realizing his vision for the franchise sooner than most expected, as a slew of young playmakers have risen to lead the postseason charge. It’s no secret that his first year in Mile High was a bit of a mess, as the 61-year-old spent much of the campaign weeding out the individuals whom he felt were unnecessary to his rebuild; ranging from high-priced veterans (Russell Wilson) to underachieving malcontents (Jerry Jeudy), Payton streamlined his roster with an eye on retooling around youth, which has proven to be the correct course of action. One of the youngest teams in the NFL, Denver only has seven players aged thirty or older, with most of their stars still in the midst of their first contract with the franchise. Of the group, there are four that come to mind. First, (fourth-year Cornerback) Patrick Surtain II has been selected to his third straight Pro-Bowl and second consecutive All-Pro team, ascending to the elite at his position, with four interceptions and eleven pass deflections. Second, (blossoming Edge-Rusher) Nik Bonitto has quickly emerged as one of the most productive pass-rushers in the league, posting career-highs in sacks (13.5), QB hits (24), tackles for loss (16), forced fumbles (2), and pressures (36). These two have been pillars for a defense that ranks third in points allowed (18.3), seventh in yards permitted (317.1), third against the run (96.4), third in the red zone (46.9%), and seventh in takeaways (25). Offensively, (Sophomore Wideout) Marvin Mims has transitioned from dangerous return man to lethal receiver, logging 341 of his 503 receiving yards within the last five games, a stretch that includes all but one of his six total touchdowns. However, the most notable of these young stars has been (Rookie Quarterback) Bo Nix, whom the club selected twelfth overall in last Spring’s NFL Draft. Indeed, Nix (pictured below) has proven to be a seamless fit for Payton’s scheme, with his accuracy, clean mechanics, and anticipation, coupled with his mobility and maturity making him an immediate hit. Believe it or not, there were those during the draft evaluation process that docked the 24-year-old due to his age, having spent six years on the collegiate level with Auburn and later Oregon. All this has led to is a more pro-ready QB; Nix has completed 66.3% of his throws for an average of 222.1 yards on 6.05 net yards per attempt, with twenty-nine touchdowns opposed to a dozen interceptions, taking just twenty-four sacks, posting a QR of 57.2, and logging three fourth-quarter comebacks/game-winning drives. Since an early November loss at Baltimore (41-10), he has really taken his game to another level, connecting on an efficient 70.3% passes for 252.8 yards on a healthy 7.05 net yards per attempt, withe twenty-one scores and six picks, with the Broncos going 5-3 as a result. With these four studs aged twenty-four years or younger, Payton has this team well-positioned for the future, particularly this offseason when they will be expected to have ample amount of cap space following the relief from Wilson’s albatross of a contract.
From a betting perspective, the Broncos may be returning to the playoffs after a lengthy drought with a 10-7 record straight-up, but they have been more rewarding for bettors against the spread (12-5), parlaying to a net profit of 5.91 units, which is good for the second-highest return of any team in this postseason field. This is a group that has failed to cover back-to-back outings just once thus far, bouncing back in the finale at home against the Chiefs’ backups last weekend (-10.5). Under the leadership of Payton, this is a franchise that is 18-15-1 versus the spread since he arrived in Mile High prior to last season, including a middling 8-8 ATS away from Empower Field, 7-10 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-9 ATS when coming off a SU win, 11-10 ATS versus all opposition residing out of the AFC West, and 2-0 ATS immediately after scoring 35+ points in the previous contest. Furthermore, his troops are 3-6 ATS on the road versus an opponent over .500 and 6-8 ATS as a road do, though it should be noted that Denver as a franchise have failed to cover four straight playoff games away from Mile High. All-time, this is a team that is 23-19 SU in the postseason, though they haven’t advanced to this stage in a decade, which as we all know was when they last claimed Lombardi glory. For those enquiring, the ponies are 2-6 SU all-time on Wild Card Weekend. Looking at this particular matchup, the Broncos trail the all-time series between these franchises 23-17-1 SU, including 0-1 in the playoffs, a tough 10-7 defeat at Buffalo in the 1991 AFC Championship Game. With that being said, Payton did lead his outfit to a surprise upset of the Bills in Orchard Park last season, a 24-22 victory that snapped a three-game losing streak in the series. Joseph’s defense was the key in this one, folks, as forcing FOUR turnovers and turning away the hosts on their lone fourth-down attempt. (Former Defensive Backs) Justin Simmons and Fabian Moreau each intercepted Josh Allen, while Simmons and (fellow DB) Ja’Quan McMillian forced a fumble apiece. As for the offense, Payton called a helluva game which largely relegated Allen to the sideline, possessing the football for a commanding 37:21 of game time, converting 8-of-19 third downs, with (veteran Kicker) Will Lutz’s 36-yard field goal sailing through the uprights. The visitors also rushed for 122 yards on thirty-eight carries, allowing them to dominate time of possession. The public doesn’t appear to be paying that result much mind, folks, as approximately 40% of all wagers placed upon this afternoon’s spread are favoring the horses, though it should be noted that a much larger share of the total sum of money being wagered is following suit (52%). On the injury front, this has been one of the healthiest teams in the NFL this season, with just two players occupying a place on injured reserve, while there are no significant absences expected to be had in this trip to the northeast. Looking ahead, if the Broncos do manage to pull the upset, then by virtue of being the lowest remaining seed left in the conference, they will be heading back to Arrowhead to face the well-rested Chiefs, whom they very nearly swept this season; trailing 16-14 with 5:57 left in regulation, Denver marched all the way to Kansas City’s 17-yard line, only to have Lutz’s potential 35-yard game-winner blocked at the line of scrimmage.
Meanwhile, their opponent may just be happy to be in the playoffs after such a long drought, but the Bills (13-4, 1st in AFC East) are no strangers to this stage, making their sixth consecutive postseason appearance on the strength of their fifth straight division crown. This was expected to be somewhat of a down season for Buffalo, who parted ways with many high-priced/high-profile players in the Spring, particularly in the receiving corps where (4-time Pro-Bowler) Stefon Diggs was traded away to the Texans. However, for (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane, it has been addition by subtraction on many fronts, as the offense has been far more streamlined and efficient as a result. This is why (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen is one of the frontrunners for MVP, with the 28-year-old thriving without the presence of a target that he had connected with for a whopping 5,372 yards and thirty-seven touchdowns over four years. It is no secret that Allen (pictured below) got a little wild last season, totaling a career-high twenty-two turnovers despite recording a staggering FORTY-FOUR touchdowns. Credit to the 3-time Pro-Bowler for identifying his issues and cleaning them up, for this 2024 version of Allen has been the most efficient in his stellar career; Allen has posted career-lows in both interceptions (6) and sacks (14), while still breaching the end zone with aplomb, scoring FORTY total touchdowns (12 rushing). This campaign has been all about moments for the big fella, whose 26-yard rushing touchdown handed Kansas City their first loss of the year, while his trifecta of passing and rushing scores was the first such performance in NFL history, only to throw FIVE touchdowns to take down the mighty Lions a week later. As a whole, the Bills have operated with a ridiculous +24 turnover differential, which is by far and away the best in the NFL this season. Furthermore, Allen has done a brilliant job of distributing the football evenly to his teammates, with nine different players totaling 200+ receiving yards and thirteen different individuals logging a touchdown. (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook has emerged a serious weapon in his third season with the club, sharing the league lead with sixteen rushing touchdowns to go with 1,009 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry, while the unheralded Khalil Shakir led the team with seventy-six catches and 821 yards. All that aside, we’re in the playoffs now, where the pressure that has been absent for much of the campaign will return to Orchard Park, as Buffalo once again looks to break through the AFC postseason field. During this cycle under McDermott, they have reached one Conference Championship Game, while suffering defeat in the division round on three occasions, including last January at home against their bitter rivals, the Chiefs. That 27-24 affair was particularly disappointing as the hosts did all they could to knock off the reigning Super Bowl Champions; they possessed the football for a commanding 37:03, rushed for 182 yards, converted 7-of-14 third downs, and 2-of-3 fourth downs, and won the takeaway battle 1-0, only to miss the potential game-tying field goal from forty-four yards out that would have sent the game into overtime. Allen accounted for 158 of his team’s 368 total yards and three touchdowns altogether, though it simply wasn’t enough to topple their persistent adversary.
From a betting perspective, the Bills return to the playoffs with a stellar 13-4 record straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding to bettors against the spread (10-7), equating to a return of 2.09 units. Like their opponent today, this is a team that suffered back-to-back non-covers only once this season, though it should be noted that they have alternated wins and losses versus the spread for six games now, failing to cover at New England in the finale (-3) as McDermott opted to remove many of his starters early on in the contest. Speaking of the veteran taskmaster, this is a franchise that is 74-61-1 ATS since he arrived in Orchard Park back in 2017, including 36-32 ATS at Highmark Stadium, 96-93 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 23-18 ATS when coming off a SU defeat, and 49-38 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops have covered four consecutive contests immediately following a SU loss, which is the case this afternoon. As for Allen, the prolific QB is 31-28 ATS at home, 45-37 ATS as a favorite, 18-13 ATS following a SU loss, and 42-32 ATS versus non-division adversaries, though his worst role has come as a home favorite (26-24 ATS). All-time, Buffalo is 19-21 SU all-time in the playoffs, including 7-5 SU on Wild Card Weekend, with four straight victories at this stage of the postseason. As we touched upon earlier, they own a narrow 23-17-1 SU edge in the all-time series between these teams, having only ever crossed paths in the playoffs once, a 10-7 affair back in the 1991 AFC Title Game that eventually saw the Bills advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl. However, McDermott & Co saw a 3-game win streak against them come to a close in that aforementioned 24-22 defat at Highmark Stadium last season, an affair that led to some significant change in Buffalo. Simply put, this one was a mess for the home side, who trailed for most of the night before finally moving ahead late in the final stanza, only to concede a game-winning field goal at the death. Apart from 81-yard drive culminating in a touchdown, the Bills first seven possessions ran as follows: fumble, interception, punt, punt, interception, and turnover on downs. It was that kind of performance as Allen completed 15-of-26 passes for just 177 yards, a touchdown, two interceptions, a rushing score and a lost fumble, while the aforementioned Cook needed just twelve carries to rush for 109 yards, though fumbled twice, losing one. The hosts possessed the football for a scant 22:39, routinely shooting themselves in the foot as they spiraled to their fourth defeat in six games, leading immediately to the firing of (former Offensive Coordinator) Ken Dorsey. Of course, that led to the promotion of Joe Brady, whose effect on the offense (and his QB) has been nothing short of transformative. Speaking of Allen, he is 5-5 all-time in the playoffs, completing 64.5% of his throws for an average of 272.3 yards on 6.70 net yards per attempt, with twenty-one touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, with another 56.3 rushing yards per game and five more scores. Furthermore, he is 4-1 on Wild Card Weekend with fifteen total touchdowns in comparison to committing four turnovers. The public appear to be riding with the MVP candidate, as roughly 60% of all wagers placed upon this afternoon’s spread favor Buffalo, though the overall money changing hands is telling a different story with 48% of all the green siding with the team clad in blue. On the injury front, McDermott has a largely healthy team on his hands, though there are a few situations to monitor, as (young Linebacker) Terrel Bernard was limited throughout the week of practice with a tender quadriceps and is expected to miss out, while (veteran Wideout) Amari Cooper has been dealing with a bulky back and is thus listed as questionable. Looking ahead, if the Bills handle their business at home, then they will be tasked with hosting the highest-remaining team left on this side of the bracket, which is yet to be determined.