4:30 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Eagles -4.5, Total: 45.5
Rematches are the theme of the day as the NFL Playoffs swing over to the NFC side of things, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers renewing acquaintances eighteen weeks after kicking off the campaign in Sao Paulo, Brazil. For the Packers (11-6, 3rd in NFC North), they hope that their campaign doesn’t conclude in the manner it began (more on that matchup in a bit), as (Head Coach) Matt LaFleur urges his troops to snap out of this malaise that they have been mired in of late. Losers of three of their last five outings, Green Bay enters this postseason in vastly different form than they did a year ago; last January they won each of their last three contests en route to stunning the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend, followed by a near-upset of the (eventual NFC Champion) 49ers. So, what in the name of Bart Starr has happened in Lambeau, you ask? Well, these Cheeseheads were a trendy pick to represent the conference in Super Bowl LIX, though an uneven season has seen this talented team fail to reach their lofty potential. Statistically a top-10 team on both sides of the football, the offense ranked eighth in points scored (27.1) and total yards for (370.7), while the defense finished sixth in points allowed (19.9) and fifth in total yards relinquished (314.5), with a healthy turnover margin of +12 (3rd Overall), and the tenth-best red zone percentage in the league (59.4%). The addition of (Defensive Coordinator) Jeff Hafley turned the defense into one of the most opportunistic groups in the NFL, while the acquisition of (2022 Rushing Champion) Josh Jacobs (1,329 yards, 15 TD) brought more balance to the attack with a physical ground game. However, this hasn’t been quite the campaign that we all envisioned for (young Quarterback) Jordan Love, who has failed to make the giant leap that was predicted. In two fewer starts (due to a sprained MCL suffered in the opener), the 26-year-old threw seven fewer touchdowns (25) and just as many interceptions (11) as he did in 2023, completing fewer passes to boot (63.1%), though consistently pushed the football downfield, averaging more yards per attempt (8.0), per completion (12.6), and net yards per attempt (7.50) than he did in his first year as the starter. As was the case last season, play action was big part of his success downfield, netting a healthy 9.37 yards per attempt on eighty-eight such plays, leading to thirty-four first downs, five touchdowns, and just one interception. With that being said, Love (pictured) suffered from poorer mechanics during his return from injury, with the recklessness that plagued him throughout his collegiate days creeping into the picture during certain situations. Throwing downfield so often creates a greater opportunity for error, with his percentage of passes thrown on target dropping from 76.6% to 73.2%, while his percentage of bad throws rose from 17.5% to 18.2%. Furthermore, that inconsistency led to more drops from his pass-catchers, going from 5.2% to 7.3%. Another issue with the team in general has been their struggles against their fellow playoff teams. The Packers won just two of seven games against such competition, a run in which they fell to division rivals Detroit and Minnesota twice apiece, along with Philadelpha. Granted, all but one of those defeat came by single digits, but their inability to slow down any of those opponents has been telling, as they haven’t been able to rely upon their outrageous takeaway advantage, posting an even ledger in those games. The ground game struggled to find consistent traction to boot, averaging 118.0 yards per game in comparison to a robust 158.8 yards in all other contests.
From a betting perspective, the Packers may enter this Wild Card Weekend at 11-6 straight-up, but they have been fairly mediocre against the spread (8-8-1), parlaying to a net loss of 0.73 units. This has been a hard team to get a feel for on that latter front, covering just four of their eleven outings (4-6-1 ATS) following a stellar 4-2 start to the campaign versus the spread. It should be noted that these Cheeseheads come into this evening’s contest on a 2-game losing streak SU/ATS. Under the leadership of LaFleur, this is a franchise that is 61-45-1 ATS since he was hired back in 2019, including 28-23-1 ATS away from Lambeau Field, 24-13-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 22-13-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 19-12 ATS following a SU loss, and 42-29 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered NINE out of ten when coming off a division affair with revenge towards a non-division adversary, which is the case this evening. All-time, Green Bay is 37-26 SU in the playoffs, including 11-5 SU on Wild Card Weekend with SIX consecutive covers at this stage of the postseason. As for Love, he is 7-9-1 ATS on the road, 8-8-1 ATS as an underdog, 6-3-1 ATS with revenge, 5-7 ATS after a SU defeat, 1-3 ATS following back-to-back defeats, and 12-9 ATS versus non-division opponents, while his most rewarding role has come as a road dog (5-5-1 ATS). Looking at this particular matchup, the Packers lead the all-time series between these teams 29-19 SU, though this is only the fourth time that they have ever crossed paths in the playoffs, with the Cheeseheads winning just one of these tilts, a 21-16 victory at Lincoln Financial Field on Wild Card Weekend back on January 9th, 2011. This one was notable for kicking off Green Bay’s run to their fourth and most recent Lombardi Trophy, as (former QB) Aaron Rodgers tossed three touchdowns in the victory. Of course, these teams have met much more recently, renewing acquaintances in the season opener from Sao Paulo, a spirited 34-29 loss despite both sides racking up well over 400 total yards of offense. LaFleur’s outfit logged 414 yards on the night, including 163 yards on the ground and another 260 yards on the arm of Love, who completed half of his thirty-four attempts with two touchdowns and an interception. Jacobs totaled 104 yards from scrimmage on eighteen touches, while (Sophomore Wideout) Jayden Reed needed just five touches to compile 171 yards from scrimmage and two scores. This one was prolific yet sloppy for both teams, as Green Bay converted just 3-of-11 third downs and were flagged ten times for a loss of seventy-one yards, while Hafley’s defense registered three takeaways. Unfortunately, the most significant part of this trip to Brazil was Love spraining his MCL on the final drive of the night, costing him the next two games, while needing at least another two weeks to get back to full strength. With that affair in mind, the public isn’t very bullish on the Packers, with approximately 41% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread siding with that shade of green, though the total sum of money being wagered altogether has been more level (47%). On the injury front, LaFleur has six players currently occupying a place on injured reserve, chief among them being (2-time Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Jaire Alexander, who has been sidelined with a bulky knee since the middle of November. As for the rest of the team, (veteran Tackle) Andre Dillard (concussion), (explosive Receiver) Christian Watson (knee), and (young Linebacker) Quay Walker (ankle) are all out of action with various maladies. Looking ahead, if Green Bay manage to get revenge and pull the upset in Philly, then they will be headed to Detroit for a third matchup against the top-seeded Lions, who bested them in each of their two previous meetings this season.
Meanwhile, despite not receiving a first-round bye, there is a real argument to be made that the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East) have been the best team in the NFL for nearly three months. After a disappointing 2-2 start to the campaign, Philadelphia has been a juggernaut since emerging from their early bye week, winning TWELVE of their final thirteen games heading into these playoffs. During this stretch, the birds own the league’s best record (12-1), have outgained opponents by a margin of 1,511 total yards (1st Overall), outscored the opposition by 170 points (2nd Overall), with an average time of possession of 32:46 (1st Overall). Indeed, it appears that (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman got it right after last season’s dramatic collapse, with the former bringing in a pair of impact coordinators, Kellen Moore to helm the offense and Vic Fangio to direct the defense, while the latter bolstered a porous secondary with sensational rookie defensive backs, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, while hitting the biggest home run in free agency in the form of newly minted rushing champion, Saquon Barkley. After six up and down years with the Giants, Barkley (pictured below) made the switch in division where he has erupted for 2,005 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns, becoming only the NINTH player in NFL history to reach that rushing milestone. Granted, Sirianni opted to rest the 3-time Pro-Bowler in the finale, which ultimately dashed his opportunity to surpass Eric Dickerson’s single-season record, which given the 17-game season, is probably for the best. With the birds’ punishing offensive line and the consistent rushing threat of (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, it is really no surprise how effective Philly has been on the ground this season; Moore is no dummy, curating a ground game that ranked first in rushes (36.5), second in yards (179.3), second in touchdowns (29), and fifth in yards per carry (4.9). That’s not to say that it has been the smoothest of sailing in terms of the passing game, for there had been swirling criticism of his handling of Hurts, some of which came from his own players. With that being said, the 26-year-old passer completed a career-high 68.7%, while cutting down his interception total to a mere five, which is ten fewer than he posted last year. Granted, eighteen touchdowns are a fairly mediocre sum in today’s league, but his continued production on the ground (630 yards, 14 TD) more than makes up for it. As for the job that Fangio did with the defense, the venerable tactician has returned cleaned up the flaws that were exposed during last year’s collapse. On the season, this unit has been nothing short of stellar, ranking second in points allowed (17.8), first in total defense (278.3), tenth against the run (104.1), sixth in takeaways (26), third on third down (35.5%), and fifth in the red zone (50.0%). As we touched upon earlier, the biggest difference has been the pass defense, which imploded in 2023, shipping the second-most yards (252.7) and touchdowns (35) in the league with only nine interceptions (25th Overall). A year later and this group ranks number one in aerial yards allowed (174.1), sixth in touchdowns (22), with thirteen interceptions (12h Overall). Furthermore, they went from yielding 6.2 net yards per attempt (16th Overall) to 5.1, which is the lowest figure in the NFL. The additions of Mitchell and DeJean have breathed new life into an aging unit, with the rookies combining for ninety-seven tackles and eighteen passes deflected, while the return of (versatile Safety) C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been a welcome sight, with the outspoken veteran leading the team with six interceptions.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles make their return to the playoffs with a stellar 14-3 record straight-up, though they have been rewarding against the spread as well (11-6), parlaying to a net profit of 4.0 units. This is a team that overcame a fairly uneven showing in the first half of the season (4-4 ATS), only to turn around and cover SEVEN of their final nine contests. Under the direction of Sirianni, this is a franchise that is a middling 35-35-3 versus the spread since he arrived int he City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, including 15-11 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 22-17 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 21-16 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 19-17 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. However, his troops are only 11-21 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, which is the case this evening. All-time, Philadelphia is 25-26 SU in the playoffs, including 9-11 SU on Wild Card Weekend, with SIX losses in their last seven appearances on this stage of the postseason, the most recent being last January’s ugly 32-9 drubbing at the Buccaneers. The birds were shot down in this one, folks, as they were outgained 426-276 in total yards, 119-42 on the ground, 23-13 in first downs, and possessed the football for just 25:57, failing to convert a single third (0-of-9) or fourth down (0-of-2). Hurts had a particularly rough night at the office, completing 25-of-35 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown, though rushed for just five yards on a single carry, suffering three sacks, six hits, eight hurries, and a dozen pressures. Speaking of the QB, he is a middling 16-16 ATS at home, 24-26 ATS as a favorite, 24-22 ATS when coming off a SU victory, 23-15 ATS following back-to-back SU wins, and 24-24 ATS versus non-division opponents, with his most rewarding role coming as a home favorite (14-11 ATS). As we covered earlier, Philly trails the all-time series 29-19 SU, splitting the last ten meetings, which includes their last postseason affair, that aforementioned 21-16 defeat in the 2010 Wild Card. The birds came into that one as 2.5-point favorites, though trailed throughout the night as their explosive offense struggled to stay on the field, converting 5-of-13 third downs, rushing for a meager eighty-one yards on twenty-one attempts, and was flagged seven times for a loss of fifty yards. (Comeback Player of the Year) Michael Vick threw and rushed for a score, but completed just 20-of-36 passing attempts, while suffering three sacks and a wealth of pressure. It would be the last playoff game that (longtime Head Coach) Andy Reid would coach the Eagles in. Of course, there is a far more recent encounter between these teams that we can look to, that 34-29 season opener in Brazil, where Philadelphia overcame a sloppy performance with three turnovers and seven penalties (-57 yards) to overpower Green Bay. As is so often the case with this team, the run game dictates their success; Barkley & Co rushed for 144 yards on thirty-eight carries, 109 yards coming courtesy of the MVP candidate, who totaled three touchdowns on the night, while Hurts added another thirty-three yards on the ground to boot. The QB also threw for 278 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but accounted for all three turnovers, slinging two interceptions and losing a fumble. The dynamic duo of (veteran Receivers) A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith combined for twelve catches, 203 yards and a 67-yard scoring strike from the former. While much has transpired since then, given the recent form of these teams, 62% of the public is backing the birds in terms of wagers placed upon the spread, though the total sum of money being wagered is actually in favor of the Packers (52%). On the injury front, Sirianni has eight different players on injured reserve, including (veterans) James Bradberry (leg) and Brandon Graham (triceps), while a host of players are listed as questionable after sitting out last weekend’s season finale, including Hurts (concussion/wrist), Brown (knee), Smith (wrist), (Linebacker) Nakobe Dean (abdominal), and (Guard) Landon Dickerson (knee), though all are expected to play. Looking ahead, if the Eagles take care of business at home this evening, then they will face the highest remaining seed in the NFC next weekend at Lincoln Financial Field.