8:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread: Buccaneers -3.0, Total: 51.5
Wild Card Weekend reaches its penultimate matchup with yet another rematch of a previous matchup from earlier this season, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the upstart Washington Commanders, who are looking for payback in this, their return to the playoffs following a 3-year hiatus. Parity has been a valuable selling point in the NFL for quite a long time, with the allure of any team being able to go from the proverbial outhouse to the penthouse in a year’s time, with the Commanders (12-5, 2nd in NFC East) being the latest to do just that. Over the previous eight seasons, Washington was the definition of mediocre, posting a 43-71-1 (.373) record during that stretch, earning just one postseason appearance along the way (which we’ll cover later). However, enough was enough following last year’s dismal 4-13 finish, as (new Principal Owner) Josh Harris initiated a full-blown makeover of a franchise that had been in dire need of one for ages, with the mandate being a complete change in culture. With that in mind, he hit a pair of home runs in the form of (General Manager) Adam Peters, formerly chief scout of the 49ers, and (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, who had spent the previous three years coordinating the Cowboys’ opportunistic defense. From there, the club hit arguably the biggest home run of the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting (Heisman winner) Jayden Daniels second overall with the hope that he would become the franchise quarterback that they have been searching for in Landover for three decades. Thankfully for everyone involved, Daniels (pictured below) has gone on to exceed all expectations. With (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury pushing the buttons, the 24-year-old is the frontrunner to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, completing an efficient 69.0% of his throws for 3,568 yards on 6.32 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, all the while posting a QBR of 70.6. Furthermore, his mobility has transitioned quite nicely to the professional stage, with another 891 yards and six more scores coming via his legs. Indeed, Kingsbury has turned him into a lethal weapon on RPO (Run Pass Options), with 589 of his passing yards and 200 of his rushing ledger coming on such plays. However, the reason that he will in all likelihood take home that coveted rookie hardware is because of his play in the clutch this season, which has been well beyond his years. Daniels has posted a quartet of fourth-quarter comebacks/game-winning drives, including that miraculous Hail Mary to beat the Bears (and number one overall pick Caleb Williams) back in late October, followed later by his 5-toucdown performance to hand the Eagles their only defeat since late September. He is the kind of playmaker that elevates the talent around him, with the offense as a whole being one of the most potent in the NFL; Washington ranks fifth in points scores (28.5), seventh in total yards (369.6), fourth in first downs (380), eighth in turnovers committed (16), third in rushing yards (154.1), fourth in rushing touchdowns (25), fourth in yards per carry (5.0), sixth on third down (45.6%), first on fourth down (87.0%), and sixth in the red zone (63.4%). (Veteran Wideout) Terry McLaurin took his new QB with ease, hauling in eighty-two receptions for 1,096 yards and a career-high thirteen touchdowns, while (veteran Tight End) Zach Ertz rediscovered the form that made him a Pro-Bowler earlier in his career, reeling in sixty-six catches for 654 yards and seven scores. Add it all up, and this is a franchise that has won twelve games for the first time since 1991, which was coincidentally the last time that they hoisted a Lombardi Trophy. They’re dreaming big in the capital, folks, and we can’t blame them…
From a betting perspective, the Commanders make their return to the playoffs at 12-5 straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread (10-6-1), parlaying to a net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has been fairly consistent throughout the campaign in that latter regard, apart from a 3-game stretch without a cover, entering the postseason on a 3-2 run versus the spread. Under the leadership of Quinn, this is a franchise that is 10-6-1 ATS in his first year in the nation’s capital, including 3-4-1 ATS away from Landover, 3-2-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 1-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 8-3-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 7-3-1 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, between his stays with Atlanta and Washington, he is 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog fresh off a SU victory, which is the case tonight. This is also a club that 4-0-1 ATS as a dog of 0.5-3.0 points, with four consecutive covers as a road dog within that same range. All-time, this is a franchise that is 23-20 SU in the playoffs, including 6-4 SU on Wild Card Weekend, though it should be noted that that have lost each of their last FOUR appearances at this opening stage of the postseason. Looking at this particular matchup, the all-time series between these two teams is level at 13-13 SU, with the Commanders owning a narrow 12-11 advantage in the regular season only to lose two of their three encounters in the playoffs. Ironically, the last time that Washington won a postseason it came against Tampa Bay way back in the 2005 Wild Card. How long ago was this you, ask? Joe Gibbs, Mark Brunell, Clinton Portis, and Sean Taylor were some just a few of the names featured in this one, as Portis opened the scoring with a rushing touchdown and Taylor returned a fumble fifty-one yards to take a commanding (pun intended) 14-0 lead in first quarter. As for more recent history, the Bucs also served as their most recent playoff adversary as well, falling to the eventual Super Bowl Champions in the 2020 Wild Card, a 31-23 tilt that saw the visitors relinquish 507 yards of total offense. This one wasn’t nearly as close as that score would lead you to believe, folks, for if not for holding Tampa to four field goals, they very well could have won by at least twenty points. As we touched upon in the opening, these teams also opened this season against each other, with Daniels making his professional debut at Raymond James Stadium. The rookie made a reasonable impression in the 37-20 defeat, completing 17-of-24 passes for just 184 yards, though exhibited his athleticism by rushing for eighty-eight yards and two scores on sixteen carries. He did fumble three times, while the attack as a whole converted just two of their eight third down attempts, allowing them to possess the football for just 26:19. (Young Tailback) Brian Robinson amassed eighty-nine yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown, while the ageless (veteran Linebacker) Bobby Wagner led the defense with ten tackles, three of which were for a loss. Despite that outcome, the public seems very bullish on Washington, with approximately 64% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the burgundy & gold, while an even larger share of the total sum of money being wagered thus far following suit (72%). On the injury front, Quinn has just five players on injured reserve, none of which are starters, while (veteran Cornerback) Marcus Lattimore, whom the club acquired back at the Trade Deadline will miss a third consecutive contests due to a nagging hamstring. Furthermore, (Offensive Linemen) Tyler Biadasz (ankle) and Cornelius Lucas (groin) are both listed as doubtful after being limited throughout the week of practice due to various maladies. Looking ahead, if the Commanders manage to spring the upset on the Gulf Coast, then they will be advance to the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2006, with their opponent to be determined.
Meanwhile, fresh off of securing their fourth consecutive division crown, the Buccaneers (10-7, 1st in NFC South) enter the playoffs as a dark horse capable of wreaking havoc on the field. After all, this is a team that has proven full capable of slaying giants when they are at the top of their game, evidenced by their victories over the top two seeds in the NFC, the Lions (20-16) and Eagles (33-16) earlier this year. Granted, this is a team that doesn’t always play at such a level, mainly due to injury this season, but when they’re on, they are a proper pain in the ass, folks. So, what makes Tampa Bay such a tough out this January, you ask? Well, let’s start with (veteran Quarterback) Baker Mayfield. After a turbulent 2022 in which he was unceremoniously dumped by the Browns, who drafted him number one overall in 2018, only to spend time with the Panthers and Rams before hitting free agency, Mayfield (pictured below) came to the Gulf Coast with designs on rebuilding both his image and his career. Needless to say, this was quite a gamble from the Bucs, who were coming off the most successful stretch in franchise history, with much of the roster being rebuilt. To his credit, Mayfield was having none of that rebuilding talk, stepping right in and leading the team to the playoffs, embarrassing Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend before giving Detroit everything they could handle a week later. However, as good as the 2023 Most Improved Player of the year was then, he has been markedly better in his second year in Tampa, due in large part to the presence of (Offensive Coordinator) Liam Coen, who has transformed this pass-dominated offense into a far more balanced attack. Under his predecessors, this unit ranked among the league’s worst in rushing the football, finishing dead-last in both rushing yards and yards per carry in each of the last two seasons. Under the watch of the former Kentucky OC, the ground game has seen a resurgence, churning out a vastly improved 149.2 yards per game (4th Overall) on 5.3 yards per attempt (3rd Overall). That’s nearly TWICE as many yards per game. (Rookie Tailback) Bucky Irving (1,122 yards, 8 TD) was a home run in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, while (Rookie Center) Graham Barton has continued to pave holes for him to run through. With the threat of the run, Mayfield and the passing game have been all the more effective to boot, as the 29-year-old tossed a career-high FORTY-ONE touchdowns, while completing 71.4% of his throws. Sure, he did lead the league with sixteen interceptions, though much of that came during a stretch in which his top two receiving threats were out of commission due to injury. Speaking of pass-catchers, (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Mike Evans remains the focal point of the attack, posting his ELEVENTH straight 1,000-yard campaign, joining the legendary Jerry Rice as the only players in NFL history to reach that milestone, doing so at the death of a 27-19 victory over the Saints in last weekend’s finale. With all that being said, the key to the Buccaneers’ postseason success will likely come down to how effective (Head Coach) Todd Bowles’ defense can be. Simply put, this isn’t the same group that wreaked havoc on Patrick Mahomes in Super Bowl LV, sitting in the middle of the pack in points allowed (22.6) and total defense (341.7). While they remain stout against the run, ranking fourth at 97.8 yards relinquished, they have been carved up through the air, shipping 243.9 yards (29th Overall) on 6.1 net yards per attempt (15th Overall), with twenty-seven touchdowns permitted (19th Overall) in comparison to just seven interceptions (26th Overall). Bowles has long had a tendency to commit extra defenders to the line of scrimmage to scare teams out of the run, which has certainly worked over the last two months, with each of their last eight opponent rushing for less than 100 yards. Unfortunately, a lack of depth in the secondary has left a lot of space for opposing QB’s to exploit, which has proven to be an issue against the more prolific passing games that they have faced.
From a betting perspective, what you see is what you get with the Buccaneers, who are 10-7 both straight-up and against the spread, parlaying to a net profit of 2.09 units. After splitting their first eight outings in that latter regard, this is a team that became a consistently rewarding one the rest of the way, entering these playoffs with six covers in their final nine games. Under the direction of Bowles, this is a franchise that is 26-27-1 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2022, including 10-16 ATS at Raymond James Stadium, 12-16 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 11-17 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 11-15 ATS following a SU victory, and 19-16 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC South. Furthermore, the veteran tactician is 3-10 ATS at home against opponents who are .500 or better and 4-9 ATS as favorite coming off a division tilt, with both trends proving relevant tonight. All-time, Tampa Bay is a mediocre 12-12 SU in the playoffs, including 4-6 SU on Wild Card Weekend, but has seriously struggled ATS four such losses in a row as a favorite and as many when favored by 0.5-3.0 points, which is coincidentally where the spread sits tonight. As for Mayfield, he is 21-29 ATS at home, 17-28 ATS as a favorite, 18-19 ATS against teams with revenge, 24-30 ATS when coming off a SU win, 11-12 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 36-33 ATS versus non-division opponents. It should be noted that the former number one overall pick has been much better suited with the odds stacked against him, for he is only 3-7-1 ATS when favored over adversaries sporting a win percentage of .666 or greater. Looking at this particular matchup, the Bucs and Commanders are deadlocked at 13-13 SU in the all-time series, with the former owning a narrow 2-1 advantage in the playoffs. Their most recent encounter was that aforementioned 31-23 in the 2020 Wild Card, an affair that was notable for kicking off Tampa’s run to Super Bowl LV. As we covered earlier, this game was far more one-sided than the score would suggest, folks, as the hosts outgained Washington 507-375 in total yards, including 146-82 on the ground, possessing the football for 31:12 of game time. If not for having to settle for a quartet of field goals courtesy of (former Kicker) Ryan Succop, Tom Brady & Co could have scored over forty-five points, with the legendary QB completing 22-of-40 passes for 381 yards and two touchdowns, the first being a 36-yard strike to (former Wideout) Antonio Brown and the latter a 27-yard score to (veteran Receiver) Chris Godwin. The aforementioned Evans hauled in six receptions for 119 yards, while (former Tailback) Leonard Fournette amassed 132 yards from scrimmage and a rushing score. Getting back to Mayfield, the veteran gunslinger is 2-2 in his playoff career, completing 62.1% of his throws for an average of 288.3 yards on 7.33 net yards per attempt with ten touchdowns opposed to three interceptions. Furthermore, he is unbeaten in two meetings with Washington, accounting for six scores and zero turnovers, including 289 yards and FOUR touchdowns in their encounter from earlier this season. Despite all that, the public doesn’t seem to be very convinced in the Bucs, as just 36% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are setting sail on Florida’s Gulf Coast, with a much smaller share of all the money changing hands in this matchup following suit (28%). On the injury front, Bowles has eight different players occupying a spot on injured reserve, while the likes of (veteran Cornerback) Jamel Dean (knee), (Pro-Bowl Safety) Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee), (Tight End) Cade Otton (knee), (Defensive End) William Gholston (knee), and (Wideout) Sterling Shepard (hamstring) are listed as questionable with various maladies. Looking ahead, if the Buccaneers manage to handle their business tonight, then they will be headed to Philadelphia for next weekend’s division round in a rematch of that aforementioned victory from back in late September.