
8:00 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Vikings -2.5, Total: 47.5
Wild Card Weekend comes to a close tonight in the desert, as the Minnesota Vikings look to bounce back following their disappointing performance in the finale, while the Los Angeles Rams are simply trying to keep their minds on the gridiron after being displaced due to the monstrous wildfires raging throughout Southern California. After coming up short in their annual pilgrimage to Detroit last weekend, the Vikings (14-3, 12nd in NFC North) have made some dubious NFL history in becoming the first ever 14-win wild card team, ensuring that they will be on the road throughout this postseason. However, let’s not focus on the fact that they’re a wild card, but rather on their status as a winner of fourteen games, which is the most that this franchise has won since their 15-1 campaign back in 1998. Believe it or not, this season was supposed to be something of a rebuild for Minnesota, who parted ways with (veteran Quarterback) Kirk Cousins in free agency and traded up to tent in last Spring’s NFL Draft to select (Michigan product) J.J. McCarthy. Given the strength of their division, this was supposed to be a case of taking one step backward to take two more forward, though nobody in Minneapolis could have predicted that they would achieve this much success. So, what in the name of Fran Tarkenton has gotten into these Northmen, you ask? Well, first and foremost, (Head Coach) Kevin O’Connell has done a tremendous job of resurrecting the career of (veteran QB) Sam Darnold, who is the runaway favorite for Most Improved Player of the Year honors. By now, we all know the deal with Darnold (pictured below alongside O’Connell), who was picked third overall in the 2018 Draft by the Jets, only to flounder in the Meadowlands en route to being shipped to Carolina where he would last just twelve games before he was benched. However, a year being reprogrammed in San Francisco appeared to do him a wealth of good as the Vikings opted to bring him in as a bridge to McCarthy, only to become QB1 after his rookie teammate tore his meniscus in training camp. Unbeknownst to anyone, this turned out to be the best thing that could have happened, as Darnold has played at a Pro-Bowl level. O’Connell has developed quite a reputation as a QB whisperer, but nobody saw this coming as Darnold posted career-highs in a slew of categories, including completion percentage (66.2%), yards per game (254.1), touchdowns (35), passer rating (102.5), QBR (60.6), fourth quarter comebacks (3), and game-winning drives (5). Coupled with plenty of weapons around him, including (perennial All-Pro Wideout) Justin Jefferson (103 catches, 1,533 yards, 10 TD), and this is one of the better offenses in the NFL, ranking ninth in points scored (25.4), twelfth in total yards (346.9), tenth in first downs (353), and sixth in passing yards (237.8), while posting a healthy turnover differential of +12 (3rd Overall) along the way. The other factor in Minnesota’s success this season has been the inspired play of the defense under the direction of (Defensive Coordinator) Brian Flores, whose aggressive approach continues to pay dividends in his second year with the franchise. Despite ranking in the middle of the pack in total defense (335.4), this unit has shipped the fifth-fewest points in the league (19.5), the second-fewest rushing yards (93.4), and the fourth-lowest success rate on third down (35.6%). Pressure and takeaways are the key to this group, which led the NFL with THIRTY-THREE turnovers forced, while clocking in at first in blitz percentage (38.9%), sixth in pressure percentage (25.3%), and fourteenth in sack percentage (7.1%) with forty-nine sacks on the year (5th Overall). Veterans such as (Cornerback) Byron Murphy and (Linebacker) Andrew Van Ginkel have developed into Pro-Bowlers under his tutelage, with the former logging SIX interceptions and fourteen passes deflected, while the latter has stuffed the stat sheet with seventy-nine tackles, eighteen for loss, 11.5 sacks, nineteen QB hits, a forced fumble, and two interception returns for touchdowns.

From a betting perspective, the Vikings come into this postseason 14-3 straight-up and have been rather rewarding against the spread as well (11-5-1), parlaying to a net profit of 5.00 units. This has been a streaky team throughout the campaign, beginning with five consecutive SU/ATS wins before covering just two of their next five outings (2-4-1 ATS), only to bounce back with four straight SU/ATS victories. Under the leadership of O’Connell, this is a franchise that is 26-22-4 versus the spread since he arrived in Minneapolis back in 2022, including 12-7-1 ATS away from U.S. Bank Stadium, 17-14-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 9-10-1 ATS when harboring revenge, 6-8 ATS following a SU loss, and 19-12 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops have covered four straight games as a favorite, along with posting an 8-1-3 record ATS in their last twelve outings played on natural grass. However, this is also a team that has failed to cover each of their last four tilts immediately after shipping thirty or more points in the previous contest. All-time, Minnesota is 21-31 SU in the playoffs, including 7-8 SU on Wild Card Weekend, with just one victory in their last four appearances at this stage of the postseason. Their most recent venture to the playoffs was O’Connell’s lone such affair, a 31-24 upset at the hands of the Giants in the 2022 playoffs. After getting on the board first with a short sneak into the end zone courtesy of (former QB) Kirk Cousins, the Northmen quickly fell victim to seventeen unanswered points, only to draw level early in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, New York responded back with a 12-play, 75-yard drive that bled nearly five minutes off the clock, scoring a touchdown to reestablish their 7-point advantage. The hosts would go three-and-out on the ensuing possession, and when they eventually received possession, they could get no further than midfield before turning it over on downs. In the end, O’Connell’s outfit was outgained 431-332 in total yards, including 142-61 on the ground, possessing the football for just 26:24 of game time. Looking at this particular matchup, the Vikings are 27-19-2 SU all-time against the Rams, including 5-2 SU in the postseason, with their last such encounter coming in the 1999 divisional round, a 49-37 loss that helped usher their opponent to their first Lombardi Trophy. Of course, there is a far more recent exchange between these teams, a 30-20 defeat at SoFi Stadium back on October 24th. The two sides traded touchdowns throughout the first half, though the well would run dry for Minnesota post intermission, with only a pair of field goals to be found the rest of the way. Granted, there was a controversial safety in which Darnold was sacked in the end zone, though the officials clearly missed a face mask penalty on the tackler, so who knows how this one would have ended up had the penalty flag been thrown. When it was all said and done, it was a familiar story as the visitors were outgained 386-276 in total yards and 107-64 on the ground, converting just 2-of-7 third downs, while possessing the pigskin for only 26:23. Darnold completed 18-of-25 throws for 240 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though was under fire throughout the night with eleven pressures, six hurries, and three sacks. Jefferson reeled in eight of nine targets for 115 yards, while (veteran Tailback) Aaron Jones amassed ninety-five yards from scrimmage on twenty touches. Getting back to Darnold, this is the first playoff start of his career, while winning one of three meetings with the Rams, completing 68.2% of his throws for an average of 212.0 yards on 7.10 net yards per attempt, with five total touchdowns in comparison to committing one turnover. Interestingly, the public doesn’t appear to be very moved from that previous encounter, as approximately 54% of all wagers paced upon tonight’s spread are sporting purple and gold, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (52%). On the injury front, O’Connell has six different players occupying injured reserve, including (Left Tackle) Christian Darrisaw, who ironically suffered a season-ending knee injury in that loss to Los Angeles. As for the rest of the team, (young Defensive End) Patrick Jones II is out of action with an ailing knee of his own, while (veteran Cornerback) Fabian Moreau is listed as questionable with a tender hip. Looking ahead, if the Vikings return from the desert victorious, then they will be off to the divisional round for the first time since 2019, where they will face the Eagles who have bested them in each of the last two seasons.
Meanwhile, after a seriously sluggish start brought on by a rash of injuries, the Rams (10-7, 1st in NFC West) have spent the last twelve weeks rounding into the form that saw them reach the playoffs last year, winning NINE out of eleven games en route to clinching their fourth division crown since 2017. Indeed, (Head Coach) Sean McVay understands more than anyone just how important it is to be healthy in the postseason, particularly when you consider just how ravaged this roster was during the first five games: without most of their offensive line and their two biggest weapons in the passing game, Los Angeles started the campaign in a 1-4 rut, averaging just 18.8 points on 324.0 total yards, including 226.6 through the air, with a -2 turnover differential to boot. It got to the point that rumors in the media were circulating that McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead were on the verge of a fire sale, with the likes of (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford and (2021 Receiving Triple Crown winner) Cooper Kupp being on their way out of the City of Angels come the Trade Deadline. However, McVay ultimately relented in favor of seeing what his team could once they got healthier, with that patience paying off handsomely. Ironically, it was a Thursday Night affair against the Vikings that kickstarted this run to the playoffs (more on that game in a bit), as both Kupp and (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Puka Nacua returned from long injury absences, reigniting their offense and Stafford (pictured below alongside McVay) the way. Over the next ten games, the attack has returned to form, scoring 22.8 points per game on 335.1 total yards, including 227.2 though the air on 6.90 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, while Stafford suffered just eleven sacks along the way. Nacua and Kupp have hauled in 124 receptions for 1,518 yards and eight touchdowns during that stretch, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Kyren Williams rushed for a career-high 1,299 yards and fourteen scores. However, while the offense got back to full strength, a young defense grew exponentially under the watch of (Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula. It is awfully ironic that a franchise that had come to be known for eschewing draft capital in favor of veteran talent, has now turned the corner and relied upon so many young defenders. Indeed, Snead’s “!@#$ them picks” mentality appears to have gone by the wayside as the Rams have struck gold over the last two drafts. Shula’s troops have forced sixteen turnovers since the bye week, while proving to be one of the stiffest units within the red zone, where they have allowed their opponents to breach the goal line on just 50.0% of their attempts (5th Overall). Rookies such as (Edge-Rusher) Jared Verse, (Defensive Lineman) Braden Fiske, and (Safety) Kamren Kinchens have all made an impact this season, with Verse’s 4.5 sacks, eleven tackles for loss, thirty-three pressures, and two forced fumbles and recoveries sending him to the Pro-Bowl and establishing himself as the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. As for Kinchens, all three of his interceptions were seismic, including a 103-yard return to the house to knock off the Seahawks back in early November, while his last pick came in the end zone to stave off the Cardinals in the penultimate week of the campaign, clinching the division and allowing many of his teammates to rest for the finale.

From a betting perspective, the Rams return to the playoffs at 10-7 straight-up and have been almost as rewarding against the spread (9-8), parlaying to a net profit of 0.18 units. This is a team that struggled mightily early on, covering just one of their first six games, but eventually found their footing the rest of the way with EIGHT covers over their final eleven outings of the campaign. Under the direction of McVay, this is a franchise that is 73-64-5 versus the spread since he arrived in the City of Angels back in 2017, including 42-34 ATS away from SoFi Stadium, 28-29 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 45-33 ATS against an opponent harboring revenge, 30-27 ATS following a SU loss, and 45-52 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered four consecutive contests in the month of January, though they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four tilts played on Monday Night. It should also be noted that the venerable mastermind is 2-5-1 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against his former assistant coaches, including 1-0 SU/ATS versus O’Connell, who served as his offensive coordinator from 2020 to 2021. As for Stafford, the veteran gunslinger is 53-56 ATS on the road, 50-60 ATS as an underdog, 54-50 ATS against an opponent with revenge, 47-57 ATS coming off a SU defeat, and 66-78 ATS versus non-division adversaries. All-time, this is a franchise that is 26-28 SU in the playoffs, including 5-7 SU on Wild Card Weekend, and 2-5 SU against in postseason meetings with the Vikings. These clubs met in the playoffs on four occasions during the 1970s, with the Rams taking the first three of those tilts, with their most recent coming in that aforementioned 1999 divisional triumph (49-37). In a matchup of the two most prolific offenses in NFL history, the Greatest Show on Turf lived up to their reputation, proving victorious despite being outgained 475-405 in total yards, committing three turnovers, and possessing the football for just 25:45 minutes of game time. They did have a 95-yard kickoff return touchdown to begin the second half, while (Hall of Famer QB) Kurt Warner struck quickly with a 77-yard and 41-yard touchdown passes to (fellow Hall of Famers) Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk. In more recent history, Los Angeles has won three straight encounters with the Northmen, including this season’s 30-20 affair from late October. This one was notable for a few reasons, folks, mostly for the fact that it marked the point of the campaign in which McVay’s outfit began to return to health. Both Nacua and Kupp made their returns after missing multiple games to injury, transforming an offense that had struggled to find its footing. As a result, the hosts outgained their opponent 386-276 in total yards, with Stafford completing 25-of-34 passes for 279 yards, FOUR touchdowns and one interception, while Nacua and Kupp combining for twelve receptions on seventeen targets for 157 yards and touchdown courtesy of the latter. The win marked a real turn for the Rams, who won their second game in a row following their bye week and would go on to win nine of their final twelve contests in lieu of securing their first division title since 2021. Getting back to Stafford, he is 4-4 during his playoff career, completing 67.2% of his throws for an average of 307.9 yards on a healthy 8.09 net yards per attempt, with eighteen total touchdowns in comparison to committing eight turnovers. Furthermore, he is no stranger to the Vikings given his previous tenure in the NFC North, posting a 10-13 record with thirty-six touchdown passes opposed to fifteen interceptions along the way. As impressive as their previous display against Minnesota was, the public doesn’t appear to be entirely convinced that we’ll see a repeat of that affair, with roughly 46% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread sporting blue and gold, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (48%). On the injury front, McVay still have seven different players on injured reserve, including (Defensive Backs) Derion Kendrick and John Johnson III. As for the rest of the team, he rested most of his impact players in the finale and as a result have just one starter in question, as (veteran Tackle) Rob Havenstein set to miss his third straight game due to a nagging shoulder. If the Rams happen to leave State Farm Stadium with a victory tonight, then they will be off to the divisional round for the first time since their run to Super Bowl glory three years ago, facing the mighty Eagles, who hammered them in a 37-20 affair back at SoFi in late November.