4:30 PM EST, ABC/ESPN – Spread: Chiefs -8.5, Total: 41.5
After an opening Wild Card Weekend that went largely as expected, the Division Round of the 2024 Playoffs kicks off with a rematch of division champions, with the well-rested Kansas City Chiefs finally returning to the gridiron to host the Houston Texans, fresh off a second postseason upset in as many years. Indeed, momentum may be a prized asset for most teams coming into the playoffs, but others relish the fact that the postseason can provide a clean slate to those struggling down the stretch. With that in mind, the Texans (10-7, 1st in AFC South) fall in the latter of those two categories, taking the Chargers to task in last weekend’s 32-12 triumph despite being a trendy pick in the media to be on upset watch. Granted, did NOT get off on the right foot for Houston, who managed just two first downs on their first five possessions of the evening, including a fumble on their opening play from scrimmage and interception of (Sophomore Quarterback) C.J. Stroud deep in his own territory midway through the second quarter. However, as the offense continued to stall, (Head Coach) DeMeco Ryans defense held serve, limiting Los Angeles to just a pair of field goals until the offense finally found their footing. A 13-play, 99-yard drive culminating in a 13-yard touchdown from Stroud to (third-year Wideout) Nico Collins wrestled the lead away from the Bolts, while a deluge of takeaways kept the momentum firmly in their favor. This really was a remarkable performance, folks, as the Texans snared FOUR interceptions against a QB that threw the fewest in the NFL (3), including a pair from (Pro-Bowl Cornerback) Derek Stingley Jr, and a 38-yard pick-6 courtesy of (veteran Safety) Eric Murray. Hell, if that wasn’t enough, the home side dealt their foe a killing blow in the form of a 2-point conversion return from (young Defensive Back) D’Angelo Ross extending their lead to 25-12, before (veteran Tailback) Joe Mixon called game with a 17-yard rushing score late int he final stanza. When it was all said and done, Houston outgained the visiting side 429-261 in total yards, including 168-50 on the ground, despite a rather sloppy performance form their own attack consisting of three turnovers of their own and eight penalties for a loss of eighty-six yards. Stingley Jr (pictured below) finished the day with two interceptions, five deflected passes, four tackles, and a forced fumble, while (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Will Anderson logged 1.5 sacks, three QB hits and as many pressures. This really shouldn’t come as a surprise, folks, for the Texans have been one of the better defensive teams in the league all season, ranking sixth in both total yards allowed (315.0) and against the pass (201.0), third in net yards per attempt permitted (5.7), seventh on third down (35.9%), and fifth in takeaways (29). If they had a problem, it was in suffering untimely breakdowns in coverage, shipping an untenable thirty-one passing touchdowns (30th Overall), which is why they struggled so much in the red zone, where they finished twenty-seventh overall (63.6%). They’ll likely need more performances like last Saturday’s if they are to progress any further into these playoffs, because Stroud and the passing game have continued to be erratic. Indeed, the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year hasn’t made the leap that many thought he would after such an impressive rookie campaign and the addition of so many veteran playmakers in the offseason. Even with the likes of (Pro-Bowl Receiver) Stefon Diggs and the aforementioned Mixon, the 23-year-old has arguably taken a step back, completing fewer passes (63.2%), throwing for fewer yards (219.2) and tossing more than twice as many interceptions (12). Furthermore, his protection has been less than ideal, with his fifty-two sacks representing an increase of fourteen in just two more games, while his net yards per attempt spiraled downward from 7.03 to 5.68. A year after ranking in the middle of the pack on third down (37.9%) and in the red zone (54.7%), the offense as a whole has been significantly worse in both departments this season, converting 37.7% on third down (20th Overall) and breaching the end zone on just 49.1% of their trips within the 20-yard area (26th Overall). During an 11-game stretch to end the regular season, Stroud has been in a malaise, completing 59.8% of his throws for just 195.5 yards on 5.75 net yards per attempt, with ten touchdowns in comparison to eleven total turnovers. Furthermore, THIRTY-SIX sacks have come within that period, which has made it difficult for the young gunslinger to wait for deeper routes to develop downfield. (Offensive Coordinator) Bobby Slowik needs to do is take the pressure off his QB and establish the run, which worked so well for them both earlier in the season and in Saturday’s rout of the Chargers.
From a betting perspective, the Texans came into this postseason at a respectable 10-7 straight-up, but they haven’t been very rewarding against the spread (7-10), parlaying to a net loss of 3.64 units. This has been a difficult team to get a read on all season, as they began the campaign with four consecutive losses versus the spread only to turn right around and cover each of their last four outings, including last weekend’s Wild Card triumph over the Chargers (+2.5). it should also be noted that they have also managed to win five games without covering the spread, which is the most of any team in this playoff field. Under the direction of Ryans, this is a franchise that is 18-19 ATS since he was hired last season, including 9-9 ATS away from NRG Stadium, 11-7 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 10-11 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 13-12 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC South. Furthermore, his troops are 1-4 ATS in their past five tilts after shipping less than fifteen points in the previous contest, and 2-5 ATS in their last six playoff ventures in which they are an underdog, with both trends proving relevant this evening. As for Stroud, he is 8-9 ATS on the road, 7-8 ATS as a dog, 10-10 ATS following a SU win, 4-5 ATS when coming off of back-to-back SU victories, and 13-11 ATS versus non-division adversaries. All-time, Houston is now 6-7 SU in the playoffs, including 6-2 SU on Wild Card Weekend, but have NEVER advanced past the Division Round of the postseason, losing all six of their attempts. Looking at this particular matchup, they trail the Chiefs in the all-time series 10-5, including 0-2 in the playoffs, with their most recent encounter taking place in the 2019 Division Round, a 51-31 shootout that featured 876 total yards, fifty-two first downs, a whopping 709 passing yards, and ELEVEN touchdowns between the two sides. While there aren’t many players left on the Texans from that affair, it should be noted that (former Pro-Bowl Wideout) DeAndre Hopkins, who now plies his trade for Kansas City, reeled in nine receptions on fourteen targets for 118 yards. Of course, there is a far more contemporary meeting of these two franchises, that 27-19 defeat at Arrowhead that we alluded to earlier from roughly a month ago. This one was all about self-inflicted wounds for Stroud & Co, with the young QB tossing an interception on his fourth pass of the afternoon, which immediately led to a touchdown for the hosts six minutes later. Though they managed to rally back and take a brief 10-7 lead, the visitors were outscored 20-10 the rest of the way, as Stroud was picked off yet again on a deep attempt to Collins in enemy territory. When it was all said and done, Ryans’ outfit was outgained 375-311 in total yards, 124-84 on the ground, and possessed the ball for just 26:08 of game time. Stroud completed 23-of-39 passes for 244 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions apiece, while Collins hauled in seven catches on ten targets for sixty yards. Unfortunately, this game was remembered more for the ugly loss of (Sophomore Receiver) Tank Dell, who in the process of reeling in a 30-yard touchdown to cut the deficit to one point early in the second half, tore his ACL, MCL, and LCL, while sustaining damage to his meniscus, ending his 2024 campaign and putting 2025 in doubt. Getting back to Stroud, he had a hard day at the office, as Kansas City pressured him on a whopping 34.9% of his drop-backs, hitting him ten times and sacking him on a pair of occasions, forcing seven off-target throws along the way. Perhaps this is why the public isn’t convinced even after last weekend’s performance, with approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread favoring Houston, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (47%). On the injury front, Ryans currently counts a dozen players on injured reserve, including (impressive third-year Safety) Jalen Pitre (pectoral) along with the aforementioned Diggs (knee) and Dell (knee). As for the rest of the team, (Defensive Linemen) Denico Autry (knee) and Folorunso Fatukasi (ankle) are out of action, while (veteran Guard) Shaq Mason (knee) will join them. Looking ahead, if the Texans manage to snap a 3-game losing to the Chiefs, then they will advance to their first-ever AFC Championship Game, where they will either face the Bills or Ravens, both of whom they faced earlier this season; Houston held on to best Buffalo at NRG Stadium back on October 6th (23-20), though were utterly embarrassed by Baltimore at home on Christmas Day (31-2).
Meanwhile, most coaches and players will welcome the opportunity to rest, particularly when it comes the playoffs, but the biggest question coming into this weekend for the Chiefs (15-2, 1st in AFC West) is how much rest is too much? Indeed, after getting off to a ridiculous 15-1 start, Kansas City clinched homefield throughout the postseason back on Christmas Day (which was a Wednesday for those wondering), which coupled with resting the bulk of their starters in the season finale and earning the first-round bye means that they will have TWENTY-THREE days off between games. That’s nearly a month, folks, which is a layoff that is generally associated with the collegiate level. Over the course of his stellar coaching career, (Head Coach) Andy Reid has posted a 24-4 record when coming off a full bye week, which equates to an .857-win percentage, the highest such in NFL history. However, thirteen days between games is one thing, but anything more than that could be a serious roll of the dice. We’ve seen in the past that one of the many ingredients for higher seeds meeting a premature demise is enjoying too much rest, with the inactivity and complacency of not competing in legitimate game situations potentially inducing a malaise that can take multiple periods of play to break out of. However, this the Chiefs that we’re talking about, for if there can be an exception to the rule, an outlier in the equation, it could certainly be this team. After all, it was only a year ago that we saw Reid & Co evolve into a far more pragmatic group that relied more on a methodical passing game, a physical rushing attack, and an aggressive defense, “upsetting” the Bills and Ravens on the road before besting the 49ers once again in Super Bowl LVIII. While there were initial designs of expanding the offense and returning to their high-flying days of old, this campaign has seen Kansas City double-down on their previous methods of success; this is a unit that ranks a middling fifteenth in points per game (22.6) and sixteenth in total yards (327.6), along with fourteenth in passing (238.0) and twenty-second in both rushing (105.3) and red zone percentage (53.8%). And if that’s not enough, then consider this: KC is the first team to win fifteen games in NFL history and NOT score thirty or more points in a single game during the regular season. Furthermore, ELEVEN of their victories have come by one possession, with six decided by five or fewer points. That’s rather remarkable for a team headlined by (2-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes, who despite turning in arguably his least-prolific campaign has nonetheless fueled their run to a NINTH consecutive division title. Now in his eighth season (seventh as the starting QB) Mahomes (pictured below) completed a career-high 67.5% of his throws, though matched his lowest touchdown output (26), yards per game (245.5), yards per attempt (6.8), net yards per attempt (5.98), and yards per completion (10.0), all the while suffering a personal-worst thirty-six sacks. With that being said, the 29-year-old has been cold as ice in the clutch, leading the NFL with FIVE fourth-quarter comebacks and an impressive SEVEN game-winning drives. Even with an aging (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, an overall skill position group that has been ravaged by injury throughout the season, and an offensive line that has also been plagued by absences, Mahomes continues to adjust and persevere.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs may have entered the playoffs with the best record in the NFL straight-up (15-2), but it has been a different story against the spread (7-9-1), parlaying to a net loss of 2.64 units. If you thought that Houston was bad when it came to winning without securing the cover, then this group have been masters of that craft, logging a ridiculous EIGHT SU victories without covering. Under the leadership of Reid, this is a franchise that 117-98-4 versus the spread since he arrived at Arrowhead back in 2013, including 53-57 ATS at home, 87-82-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-11 ATS when enjoying the benefit of rest, 72-63-1 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 29-23 ATS when coming off a SU defeat, and 80-65 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops have won and covered SIX consecutive postseason contests, while beating the spread in each of their last four game after being held to less than fifteen points in the previous tilt, with both trends proving relevant this evening. With that being said, Kansas City has also failed to cover four straight games after shipping thirty or more points, while mired in a streak of SIX consecutive spread losses immediately after rushing for fewer than ninety yards, with both of those trends also proving to be the case in this matchup. As for Mahomes, the 2-time MVP is middling 34-33 ATS at home, 56-54-1 ATS as a favorite, 46-40-1 ATS versus an opponent with revenge, 15-9 ATS following a SU loss, and 53-37 ATS against non-division adversaries. All-time, this is a franchise that is 24-21 SU in the playoffs, including an even 8-8 SU in the division round, though it should be noted that they have won six straight outings at this stage of the postseason. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs own a 10-5 advantage in the all-time series against the Texans, which includes a pair of postseason victories, the most recent being that aforementioned shootout from January 2020 in which Mahomes erupted for 321 yards and FIVE touchdowns on 23-of-35 passing, with another fifty-three rushing yards to boot. The aforementioned Kelce was otherworldly on that day, reeling in ten of twelve targets for 134 yards and three of those scores. As for last December’s 27-19 affair at Arrowhead, the hosts grinded out another win largely on the strength of their ground game and defense, rushing for 124 yards on twenty-eight attempts, while forcing a pair of turnovers on the afternoon. Mahomes hit on 28-of-41 throws for 260 yards and an 8-yard strike to (Rookie Wideout) Xavier Worthy not long after opening their ledger with a 15-yard scamper into the end zone. (Veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt amassed seventy-nine yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown on just thirteen touches, while Worthy caught seven passes for sixty-five yards. (Young Cornerback) Trent McDuffie logged an interception along with five tackles and two being for a loss. Getting back to Mahomes, the veteran has often saved his best work for the playoffs, owning a 15-3 record and completing 67.8% of his passes for 285.3 yards on 7.30 net yards per attempt, with FORTY-ONE touchdowns opposed to eight interceptions, while rushing for another 29.1 yards and five more scores to boot. In four career encounters with the Texans, he is 3-1 with eleven total touchdowns in comparison to just two turnovers. Given their dominance in just about, well, EVERYTHING, the majority of the public are backing KC, with roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon the spread seeing nothing but red, while a slightly smaller share of the all the money changing hands on this spread following suit (53%). On the injury front, Reid may have nine players on injured reserve, but they are largely healthy given that they’ve had so much time off. Looking ahead, the Chiefs will advance to a SEVENTH AFC Championship Game if they handle their business this evening, where they will face either the Bills or Ravens next weekend, both of whom they defeated during last January’s Super Bowl run. However, Kansas City split their two matchups with them this season, barely besting Baltimore in the opener (27-20) before suffering their first loss of the campaign in Buffalo (30-21) ten weeks later.