8:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Lions -8.5, Total: 55.5
The Division Round of the 2024 Playoff march onward to Ford Field, where the top-seeded Detroit Lions emerge from their bye week with designs on taking care of business against the upstart Washington Commanders, who are fresh off their first postseason victory in nearly two decades. Parity has been a valuable selling point in the NFL for quite some time, with the allure of any team being able to go from the outhouse to the penthouse in relatively short order, with the Commanders (12-5, 2nd in NFC East) being the latest to do just that. Over the previous eight seasons, Washington had been the definition of mediocre, owning a 43-71-1 (.373) record during that stretch, earning just one playoff appearance along the way. Following last year’s dismal 4-13 finish, (new Principal Owner) Josh Harris initiated a complete makeover of a franchise that had been in dire need of one for ages, with the mandate being a total shift in culture. With that in mind, he hit a pair of home runs in the form of (General Manager) Adam Peters, formerly chief scout of the 49ers, and (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, who had spent the previous three years coordinating the Cowboys’ opportunistic defense. From there, the club hit arguably the biggest home run of the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting (Heisman winner) Jayden Daniels second overall with the hope that he would become the franchise quarterback that they have been searching for in Landover for three decades. Thankfully for everyone involved, Daniels (pictured below) has gone on to exceed all expectations. With (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury pushing the buttons, the 24-year-old is the frontrunner to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, completing an efficient 69.0% of his throws for 3,568 yards on 6.32 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, all the while posting a QBR of 70.6. Furthermore, his mobility has transitioned quite nicely to the professional stage, with another 891 yards and six more scores coming via his legs. Indeed, Kingsbury has turned him into a lethal weapon on RPO (Run Pass Options), with 589 of his passing yards and 200 yards of his rushing ledger coming on such plays. However, the reason that he will in all likelihood take home that coveted rookie hardware is because of his play in the clutch this season, which has been well beyond his years. Daniels has posted a quartet of fourth-quarter comebacks/game-winning drives, including that miraculous Hail Mary to beat the Bears (and number one overall pick Caleb Williams) back in late October, followed later by his 5-toucdown performance to hand the Eagles their only defeat since late September. He is the kind of playmaker that elevates the talent around him, with the offense as a whole being one of the most potent in the NFL; Washington ranks fifth in points scored (28.5), seventh in total yards (369.6), fourth in first downs (380), eighth in turnovers committed (16), third in rushing yards (154.1), fourth in rushing touchdowns (25), fourth in yards per carry (5.0), sixth on third down (45.6%), first on fourth down (87.0%), and sixth in the red zone (63.4%). That ability to move the chains was on display in last weekend’s 23-20 upset of the Buccaneers, serving as revenge for a 37-20 loss in the season opener. The visitors outgained the hosts 350-284 in total yards, with Daniels accounting for the bulk of that production, amassing 304 total yards, including thirty-two of the rushing variety. The key though was their ability to stay on the field in turn relegating Tampa’s explosive attack on the sidelines; the Commanders converted a healthy 8-of-15 third downs and 3-of-5 fourth downs, which is a huge reason that they possessed the football for 35:26 of game time. The game turned on its head when Quinn opted to go for it on fourth-and-goal at the 3-yard, with Daniels’ pass to (veteran Tight End) Zach Ertz broken up, only for the defense to get the ball right back on a botched handoff that was recovered by (veteran Linebacker) Bobby Wagner. Four plays later and Daniels found (Pro-Bowl Wideout0 Terry McLaurin in the back of the end zone on another fourth down, taking a 2-17 lead in the process. After the Bucs drew level with just under five minutes left to play, the young QB deftly guided his team downfield, using his legs on a key designed run on third-and-one to set the pigskin at the home side’s 15-yard line, with (veteran Kicker) Zane Gonzalez banking the game-winning kick through the uprights.
From a betting perspective, the Commanders make their return to the playoffs at 12-5 straight-up, but they have been almost as rewarding against the spread (10-6-1), parlaying to a net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has been fairly consistent throughout the campaign in that latter regard, apart from a 3-game stretch without a cover, entering the postseason on a 4-2 run versus the spread, which includes that upset of the Bucs (+3). Under the direction of Quinn, this is a franchise that is 11-6-1 ATS in his first year in the nation’s capital, including 4-4-1 ATS away from Commanders Field, 4-2-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 9-3-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 8-3-1 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. Furthermore, between his tenures with Atlanta and Washington, he is 17-4-1 ATS as an underdog fresh off a SU victory, which is once again the case tonight. As for Daniels, he too is 11-6-1 ATS, including 4-4-1 ATS on the road, 4-2-1 ATS as a dog, 9-3-1 ATS following a SU victory, 8-2-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins, and 8-3-1 ATS versus non-division foes. All-time, this is a franchise that is 24-20 SU in the playoffs, including 6-10 SU in the Division Round, suffering three straight defeats at this stage of the postseason. In fact, the last time that they advanced past this particular round was also in the 1991 campaign, which as we covered earlier was when they last hoisted a Lombardi Trophy. Ironically, the then-Redskins utterly obliterated the Lions in the NFC Championship Game (41-10). Speaking of the all-time series between these two franchises, Washington owns a commanding 31-16 SU edge, though have won only one of the last seven matchups (a narrow 19-16 affair back in 2019) and haven’t tasted victory at Ford Field since 2008. With that being said, they have never lost to Detroit in the postseason, winning each of their three encounters, with the most recent being a 27-13 triumph in Landover back in the 1999 Wild Card Round. For those seeking a more contemporary crossing of paths, they last faced off in 2022, a 36-27 in the Motor City, which saw the hosts take control of matters early with twenty-two unanswered points in the first half. When it was all said and done, the visitors were outgained 425-396 in total yards due in large part to a 191-88 disparity on the ground, while (former QB) Carson Wentz was picked off once, sacked FIVE times, pressured on fourteen occasions, and was forced into ten bad throws despite amassing 337 passing yards and three touchdowns. While there aren’t very many players left on the roster from that trip to Michigan, the aforementioned McLaurin did reel in four receptions on eight targets for seventy-five yards, while (veteran Defensive Tackle) Daron Payne logged a sack, a pair of QB hits, and four tackles. After their upset of the Buccaneers last weekend, it is clear that an increasing percentage of the public believes that they may pull that same trick twice, with approximately 55% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the burgundy and gold, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit (53%). On the injury front, Quinn has just five players on injured reserve, none of which are starters, while Ertz and Payne have been limited throughout the practice week, the former dealing with tender ribs and the latter suffering a finger malady following their Wild Card triumph. Looking ahead, if the Commanders do in fact advance to their first NFC Championship Game in thirty-three years, then they will be heading to either Philadelphia or Los Angeles; they split their two meetings this season with the Eagles, while suffering a 28-20 defeat at SoFi Stadium against the Rams last year.
Meanwhile, the Lions (15-2, 1st in NFC North) were exactly where their opponent was last postseason and now have their eyes set on much greater things, such as bringing the franchise its first-ever Lombardi Trophy. Indeed, Detroit is one of the few teams in the NFL to have never even reached a Super Bowl, though won’t have to leave the friendly confines of Ford Field in order to get there. It is remarkable how the narrative around this franchise has changed over the past few seasons; prior to last January’s jaunt to the NFC Championship Game, the Lions had participated in the playoffs on just three occasions since the turn of the century, with a whopping SEVENTEEN losing seasons along the way. However, after a painful 4-19-1 start to their tenure together in the Motor City, the tandem of (Head Coach) Dan Campbell and (General Manager) Brad Holmes has since posted a stellar 35-9 ledger over the last 2.5 campaigns, which is second only to the (two-time reigning Super Champion) Chiefs during that stretch, winning back-to-back division titles for the first time since 1954. This organization has become the envy of the NFL, with both coordinators, Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn, two of the most sought-after head coaching candidates over the past two hiring cycles, while their ability to identify and develop talent from the draft proving to be second to none. Seriously, folks, we challenge you to find a team that be been better in that regard of late; Campbell and Holmes have selected THIRTEEN starters over the course of four different classes, consisting of a dozen Pro-Bowl nods and four All-Pro honors. Among them, (Sophomore Tailback) Jahmyr Gibbs (1,929 yards from scrimmage, 20 TD), (Sophomore Tight End) Sam LaPorta (726 yards, 7 TD), (third-year Edge-Rusher) Aidan Hutchinson (7.5 sacks and 27 pressures in 5 games), (2-time All-Pro Right Tackle) Penei Sewell, and (2-time All-Pro Wideout) Amon-Ra St. Brown (1,263 yards, 12 TD) have established themselves among the best at their respective positions, while the renaissance of (veteran Quarterback) Jared Goff has personified the rise of this franchise. Believe it or not, the former number one overall pick arrived in Detroit at the lowest point of his career: after being effectively benched by the Rams two years after reaching Super Bowl LIII, he was packaged along with a pair of first-round picks for (veteran counterpart) Matthew Stafford, who would go on to lead Los Angeles to Super Bowl glory in that same season. However, under the tutelage of Campbell and Johnson, Goff (pictured below) has rebuilt himself into a complete pocket passer, tossing 115 touchdowns in comparison to thirty-nine interceptions over his four years in Motown, including a 67/24 ratio between 2023 and 2024. This campaign alone, he completed a career-best 72.4% of his throws for an average of 272.3 yards on a healthy 7.71 net yards per attempt, with thirty-seven scores opposed to a dozen picks, while posting a QBR of 68.5 with a quartet of fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. Now 30-years-old, his ability to see the field and anticipate throws has improved by leaps and bounds since his days in Los Angeles, while Johnson’s playcalling coupled with the wealth of talent surrounding him making this arguably the most potent attack in the league; the Lions rank first in points scored (33.2), second in total offense (423.9), first in first downs (410), second in passing yards (277.5), fourth in passing scores (39), second in net yards per attempt (7.66), sixth in rushing yards (146.4), second in rushing touchdowns (29), ninth in yards per carry (4.7), fourth on third down (47.6%), and third in the red zone (69.4%), while enjoying a turnover differential of +9 (8th Overall). This unit is a major reason why Detroit continues to be march on despite getting ravaged with injuries on the defensive side of the football, with ELEVEN different defenders currently on injured reserve. Of that group, Hutchinson (leg), (Edge-Rusher) Marcus Davenport (elbow), (veteran Cornerback) Carlton Davis (jaw), (emerging Defensive Tackle) Alim McNeill (knee), and (young Linebacker) Malcolm Rodriguez (knee) are all starters. Credit to Glenn for managing to field a defense that has yielded just 20.1 points per game (7th Overall), though it has been worrisome that they have shipped so many passing yards (244.0), the third-most in the NFL.
From a betting perspective, the Lions return the playoffs with an NFL-best 15-2 record straight-up, but they have also been very rewarding against the spread (12-4-1), equating to a net profit of 6.91 units, which is the most of any team left in the postseason at this juncture. This is a team that covered a whopping NINE of their first eleven games of the campaign before hitting a three-game without a cover, only turn right around and beat the spread in their final three outings of the regular season. Under the leadership of Campbell, this is a franchise that is an astounding 49-20-2 versus the spread since he arrived in the Motor City back in 2021, including 24-10-1 ATS at Ford Field, 25-11-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 3-1 ATS when enjoying the luxury of rest, 25-12-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 32-14 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC North. Furthermore, his troops are a stellar 25-13-1 ATS against adversaries who are above .500, while covering each of their last seven outings after shipping fewer than 150 passing yards int eh previous contest, with both trends proving relevant tonight. As for Goff, over the course of his career he is 39-28-1 ATS at home, 54-35-1 ATS as a favorite, 44-35-1 ATS following a SU victory, 23-24-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins, and 53-38 ATS versus non-division foes. All-time, Detroit is 9-14 SU in the playoffs, including 4-2 SU in the Division Round, which ironically includes that 27-13 loss at this stage of the 1999 postseason. As we touched upon earlier, they trail the all-time series between these franchises by a considerable margin (31-16), with ZERO wins in three attempts during the playoffs. With that being said, the Lions have won SIX of the last seven meetings regardless of when they’ve taken place, with the most recent being that 36-27 affair from September 2022. This one wasn’t nearly as close as the final score would indicate, as Campbell’s outfit took a commanding 22-0 lead into halftime, before the visitors made things look more respectable throwing the ball post intermission. When it was all said and done, the hosts amassed 425 total yards of offense, including a whopping 191 rushing yards on just twenty-four carries (7.9 yards per carry !!!), with three different players logging over fifty yards on the ground. Interestingly, the aforementioned St. Brown led the way with sixty-eight rushing yards on TWO carries, while hauling in another nine receptions on twelve targets for 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The aforementioned Hutchinson wreaked havoc with three sacks, six tackles, and a pair for loss, while Goff completed 20-of-34 passes for 256 yards and FOUR touchdowns. Speaking of the 4-time Pro-Bowler, he is 5-4 all-time in the playoffs, completing 61.7% of his throws for an average of 237.4 yards on 6.49 net yards per attempt with eight touchdowns opposed to two interceptions, though taking sacks has been an issue with twenty-one of them in nine games. As for his history with Washington, the vet is 2-1 in three career encounters, totaling seven touchdowns in comparison to committing just two turnovers. The public isn’t buying it, folks, at least in regard to covering an 8.5-point spread, as roughly 45% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the team clad in Honolulu blue, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit (47%). On the injury front, we have already covered how hard that Detroit has been hit, with FIFTEEN different players, including those six starters, sitting on the proverbial shelf on injured reserve. However, there is good news for Campbell & Co, as (veteran Tailback) David Montgomery, who had missed the past three games with a sprained MCL, has been practicing all week and received the green light from the team’s medical staff to return to the gridiron. The Knuckles to Gibbs’ Sonic, the 27-year-old rushed for 775 yards and a dozen touchdowns on 4.2 yards per carry this season, providing a physical, bruising presence between the tackles. Looking ahead, if the Lions take care of business tonight, then will advance to their second consecutive NFC Championship Game, with either the Eagles or Rams coming to Ford Field next Sunday. The cats haven’t crossed paths with Philadelphia since the 2022 season opener, a narrow 38-35 defeat at home, though they have taken two in a row against Los Angeles, including last year’s Wild card triumph (24-23) followed by this season’s opener in overtime (26-20).