
6:30 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Ravens -1.5, Total: 51.5
With one ticket left to be punched for next weekend’s Conference Championship Games, the surging Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills cross paths yet again in this matchup featuring the two frontrunners for MVP, with the winner set to embark on a fateful venture to Arrowhead next weekend. Momentum is a precious commodity in sports, and you’ll find no team in the NFL with more of it at the moment than the Ravens (12-5, 1st in AFC North) who have now won each of their last five games since returning from a late bye week en route to capturing their second consecutive division title. This looks like the team that was steamrolling opponents last year, with this quintet of victories coming by a sizable margin of 21.2 points, as their high-powered offense is firing on all cylinders while the defense has rounded into form following a slow start. Beginning with (reigning MVP) Lamar Jackson & Co, Baltimore has been one of the most prolific attacks in NFL history, folks, averaging 30.5 points (3rd Overall) on an insane 424.9 total yards (1st Overall), including 237. 3 yards through the air (7th Overall) on a robust 8.1 net yards per attempt (1st Overall), and 187.5 yards on the ground (1st Overall) on 5.8 yards per carry (1st Overall), while converting 48.2% of their third downs (3rd Overall) and breaching the end zone on a healthy 74.2% of their trips within the 20-yard area (1st Overall). In comparison to either of his previous MVP campaigns, Jackson (pictured below) has enjoyed a career season, completing 66.7% of his throws for 245.4 yards per game on a league-high 8.09 net yards per attempt, a personal-best FORTY-ONE touchdowns in comparison to just four interceptions, all the while posting the top QBR in the NFL (77.5). Oh, and he remains a nightmare to deal with when he decides to tuck it and run, gashing opponents for another 915 yards and four scores, while leading the league in yards per carry (6.6) for the fourth time in the last six years. With the addition of (three-time Rushing Champion) Derrick Henry, who continues to defy father time with 1,921 rushing yards and sixteen touchdowns, this unit has been an embarrassment of riches for (Offensive Coordinator) Todd Monken, whose creative designs and playcalling has certainly gotten the most out of this side of the football. However, if there was weakness on this team early on, it would have to be the defense, but let’s give credit to (Head Coach) John Harbaugh for sticking with (first-year Defensive Coordinator) Zach Orr as the former Linebacker has successfully turned around this unit. Through the first ten games, the Blackbirds were shipping 25.3 points on 367.9 total yards, including an insufferable 294.9 yards against the pass, yielding twenty-two touchdowns opposed to logging just six interceptions. Keep in mind that this same group relinquished the fewest points (16.5) while posting the most takeaways (31) a year ago. Admittedly, penalties have been a huge issue as the Ravens have been flagged more than any team in the league (132) for a loss of 1,120 yards and thirty first downs, with the bulk of them coming during that stretch. However, there has been a dramatic shift over the last seven games, as Harbaugh’s troops have allowed a more palatable 15.4 points on 261.7 total yards, including just 171.6 yards versus the pass, even totaling more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5). Both sides of the football were impressive in last weekend’s 28-14 triumph over the Steelers, which saw the hosts outclass their bitter division rivals across the board; the Blackbirds held significant advantages in total yards (464-280), rushing yards (299-29), first downs (29-11), and time of possession (39:33). Jackson hit on 16-of-21 passes for 175 yards and a pair of touchdowns, rushing for another eighty-one yards on fifteen carries to boot, while Henry plowed his way to 186 rushing yards and two scores of his own, including a 44-yard jaunt to the end zone to put the game out of reach.

From a betting perspective, the Ravens rolled into the playoffs at 12-5 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (10-6-1), parlaying to net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has clearly regained their rhythm following a 2-4 stretch ATS, with FIVE consecutive covers, which have all been as sizable favorites, including -9.5 in last weekend’s wild card romp over the Steelers. Under the direction of Harbaugh, this is a franchise that is 157-129-13 versus the spread since he arrived back in 2008, including 87-56 ATS away from M&T Bank Stadium, 98-93-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 92-71 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 94-80-1 ATS following a SU victory, and 104-79-1 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC North. As for Jackson, he is 32-15 ATS on the road 41-39-1 ATS as a favorite, 39-31-1 ATS following a SU win, 26-20-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU victories, and 41-28-1 ATS versus non-division adversaries. Speaking of the 2-time MVP, he is also 15-5 SU and 17-2-1 ATS as either a favorite or underdog of less than three points, including a commanding 11-0-1 ATS in his last twelve such outings. All-time, Baltimore is 18-13 SU in the playoffs, including 5-7 SU in the Division Round, with their most recent effort being last year’s 34-10 drubbing of the Texans. Looking at this particular matchup, the Blackbirds own a 7-4 SU all-time edge versus the Bills, which includes four victories in six meetings dating back to 2016. Tonight’s venture to Orchard Park marks only the second time that they have crossed paths in the postseason; Jackson & Co met defeat in the 2020 Division Round, a 17-3 affair that saw the visitors outgain Buffalo 340-220 in total yards, though produce just three points, with a late pick-6 thrown by Jackson in the end zone sealing their fate. Of course, there is a much more recent matchup between these sides, albeit with a very different outcome, as Baltimore embarrassed the Bills in a 35-10 blowout back in late September. This one started quickly for Harbaugh’s troops as Henry took his first touch from scrimmage EIGHTY-SEVEN yards to the house, followed by touchdowns on each of their ensuing two drives to take a 21-3 lead into halftime. When it was all said and done, the hosts churned out 427 total yards on twenty-two first downs, rushing for a whopping 271 yards, with 199 of that total coming courtesy of Henry. Jackson completed an efficient 13-of-18 passes for 156 yards and a pair of touchdowns (one of which went to his Pro-Bowl RB), while rushing for another fifty-four yards and one more score on six carries of his own. It will be interesting to see how the 28-year-old continues to change the narrative surrounding his playoff ledger, as he is now 3-4 in the postseason, completing 59.2% of his throws for an average of 214.1 yards on 6.15 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to six interceptions, while rushing for another 86.0 yards per contest and three touchdown and lost fumbles apiece. As for his career against Buffalo, he has done much better for himself with three wins in five encounters, connecting on 64.0% of his passes for 126.2 yards on 5.82 net yards per attempt, with six scores in comparison to four interceptions. In that previous trip to Western New York, he was very poor in totaling 162 passing yards and that aforementioned interception in 14-of-24 passing. Even with their thumping of Buffalo from earlier this season, the public doesn’t appear to be buying into Baltimore doing so once again, with approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread sporting purple, though the total sum of money has told a very different story with a more level share following suit (52%). On the injury front, Harbaugh has just six players on injured reserve, though none are starters, but there could be one very large absence tonight, coincidentally from one of the smallest players on the gridiron. (Sophomore Wideout) Zay Flowers missed last weekend’s drubbing of Pittsburgh after suffering a bruised knee suffered in the finale, leaving him listed as doubtful to return. The young pass-catcher has reeled in seventy-four receptions for 1,059 yards and four touchdown this season. Looking ahead, if the Ravens escape Orchard Park with a victory, then they will be off to Arrowhead for a rematch with the (2-time reigning Cuper Bowl Champion) Chiefs, who bested them at M&T Bank Stadium in last year’s AFC Championship Game (17-10), before holding on to earn a 27-20 win in September’s season opener.
Meanwhile, the Bills (13-4, 1st in AFC East) are now making their sixth consecutive postseason appearance on the strength of their fifth straight division crown winning ELEVEN of their last thirteen games, including last weekend’s wild card romp over Denver (more on that in a bit). This was expected to be somewhat of a down season for Buffalo, who parted ways with many high-priced/high-profile players in the Spring, particularly in the receiving corps where (4-time Pro-Bowler) Stefon Diggs was traded away to the Texans. However, for (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane, it has been addition by subtraction on many fronts, as the offense has been far more streamlined and efficient as a result. This is why (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen is one of the frontrunners for MVP, with the 28-year-old thriving without the presence of a target that he had connected with for a whopping 5,372 yards and thirty-seven touchdowns over four years. It is no secret that Allen (pictured below) got a little wild last season, totaling a career-high twenty-two turnovers despite recording a staggering FORTY-FOUR touchdowns. Credit to the 3-time Pro-Bowler for identifying his issues and cleaning them up, for this 2024 version of Allen has been the most efficient in his stellar career; Allen has posted career-lows in both interceptions (6) and sacks (14), while still breaching the end zone with aplomb, scoring FORTY total touchdowns (12 rushing). This campaign has been all about moments for the big fella, whose 26-yard rushing touchdown handed Kansas City their first loss of the year, while his trifecta of passing and rushing scores was the first such performance in NFL history, only to throw FIVE touchdowns to take down the mighty Lions a week later. As a whole, the Bills have operated with a ridiculous +24 turnover differential, which is by far and away the best in the NFL this season. Furthermore, Allen has done a brilliant job of distributing the football evenly to his teammates, with nine different players totaling 200+ receiving yards and thirteen different individuals logging a touchdown. (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook has emerged a serious weapon in his third season with the club, sharing the league lead with sixteen rushing touchdowns to go with 1,009 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry, while the unheralded Khalil Shakir led the team with seventy-six catches and 821 yards. All that aside, we’re in the playoffs now, where the pressure that has been absent for much of the campaign has returned to Orchard Park, as Buffalo once again looks to break through the AFC postseason field. For a fifth straight year, they handled their business on Wild Card Weekend, dominating the Broncos in the second half of a 31-7 affair. After shipping a 43-yard touchdown pass on the opening drive of the afternoon, the hosts scored the final thirty-one points of the contest, outgaining Denver 267-64 in total yardage post intermission. The ground game got going in this one, folks, as the home side churned out 210 rushing yards on forty-four carries, converted 8-of-15 third downs and each of their two attempts on fourth down, possessing the football for an insane 41:43 of game time. Cook amassed 120 yards and a rushing score on twenty-three carries, while (backup RB) Ty Johnson totaled seventy yards from scrimmage on eleven touches, including a 24-yard strike from Allen into the back of the end zone to break the game wide open. Speaking of the MVP candidate, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more efficient performance during his playoff career as he hit on 20-of-26 passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns, with another forty-six yards on eight carries, finding (veteran Wideout) Curtis Samuel for a 55-yard scoring strike early in the fourth period to effectively end the game altogether.

From a betting perspective, the Bills rolled into the playoffs with a stellar 13-4 record straight-up and they have been almost as rewarding to bettors against the spread (10-7), equating to a return of 2.09 units. This is a team that suffered back-to-back non-covers only once this season, though it should be noted that they have alternated wins and losses versus the spread for six games now, bouncing back with a cover against the Broncos on Wild Card Weekend (-7.5). Under the leadership of McDermott, this is a franchise that is now 75-61-1 ATS since he arrived in Orchard Park back in 2017, including 37-32 ATS at Highmark Stadium, 24-23 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 46-39 ATS when coming off a SU victory, 33-23 ATS when harboring revenge, and 50-38 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five outings after shipping fewer than 250 total yards in the previous contest, while failing to cover all but one of their past seven tilts immediately after rushing for 150+ yards, with both trends proving relevant tonight. As for Allen, the prolific QB is now 32-28 ATS at home, 18-14 ATS as an underdog, 32-27 ATS with revenge, 29-18 ATS following a SU victory, and 43-32 ATS versus non-division adversaries. All-time, Buffalo is a middling 20-21 SU all-time in the playoffs, including 6-9 SU in the Division Round, with three straight losses at this stage of the postseason, the most recent being last January’s frustrating 27-24 defeat at home to the Chiefs. Despite possessing the football for over thirty-seven minutes, rushing for 182 yards, and logging twenty-seven first downs, the hosts couldn’t slay the reigning champions, as (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass’s 44-yard effort to send the game to overtime sailed wide of the target. As for this particular matchup, the Bills trail the all-time series with the Ravens (7-5 SU), though have taken the only playoff encounter between the two sides, that aforementioned 17-3 slugfest from four years ago in the blistering wind of Orchard Park. As we covered earlier, the hosts were outgained by 140 total yards but refused to break, with Allen’s short touchdown toss to Diggs breaking the deadlock midway through the third period, while (veteran Defensive Back) Taron Johnson’s 101-yard interception return to the house effectively ended the affair. With that being said, their clash from this past September was a very different proposition altogether, as McDermott & Co were steamrolled in that 35-10 affair in Baltimore; the visitors trailed 21-3 at halftime and could never quite get close enough to make the Blackbirds sweat, with the disparity on the ground proving decisive as they were outrushed by a whopping 190 yards. Buffalo could muster just twelve first downs on the night, converting a mere 3-of-13 third downs along the way, while Allen struggled with just 180 yards on 16-of-29 passing, three sacks, nine pressures, and a lost fumble. Speaking of the 3-time Pro-Bowler, he is now 6-5 all-time in the playoffs, completing an efficient 65.3% of his throws for an average of 272.3 yards on 6.91 net yards per attempt, with twenty-three touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 55.4 yards per game and five more scores in comparison to a pair of lost fumbles. Furthermore, he has faced the Ravens on five occasions now, including his professional debut, posting a 2-3 record with just 189.6 total yards, three touchdowns and as many turnovers. Interestingly, the public appears to be bullish on he and his teammates tonight, with roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon the spread representing Bills Mafia, while a much smaller share of the total sum of money bet on said spread has followed suit (47%). On the injury front, McDermott has just three players on injured reserve at this point, with only the status of (Rookie Tailback) Ray Davis currently in the balance due to the effects of a concussion. Looking ahead, a win tonight will set up the next chapter in one of the league’s best modern rivalries as the Bills head to Arrowhead next weekend; Buffalo and Kansas City have crossed paths in three of the last four postseasons, all of which going in favor of the defending champs.