
3:00 PM EST, NBC/Peacock – Spread; Eagles -6.0, Total: 42.5
With two of the NFL’s final four already punching their tickets to next weekend’s Conference Championship Games, one more participant will be revealed this afternoon, as the resilient Los Angeles Rams look to pull what would be viewed as a major upset in this venture to Lincoln Financial Field, where the mighty Philadelphia Eagles look to handle their business and best this particular opponent for the second time in as many months. After a sluggish start brought on by a rash of injuries, the Rams (10-7, 1st in NFC West) have spent the last thirteen weeks rounding into the form that saw them reach the playoffs last year, winning NINE out of eleven games en route to clinching their fourth division crown since 2017. Indeed, (Head Coach) Sean McVay understands more than anyone just how important it is to be healthy in the postseason, particularly when you consider just how ravaged this roster was during the first five games: without most of their offensive line and their two biggest weapons in the passing game, Los Angeles started the campaign in a 1-4 rut, averaging just 18.8 points on 324.0 total yards, including 226.6 through the air, with a -2 turnover differential to boot. It got to the point that McVay and (General Manager) Les Snead were reportedly on the verge of conducting a fire sale, with the likes of (veteran Quarterback) Matthew Stafford and (veteran Receiver) Cooper Kupp being on their way out of the SoCal come the Trade Deadline. However, McVay relented in favor of seeing what his team could once they got healthier, with that patience paying off handsomely. Over the next ten games, the attack returned to form, scoring 22.8 points per game on 335.1 total yards, including 227.2 though the air on 6.90 net yards per attempt, with seventeen touchdowns opposed to just four interceptions, with Stafford suffering just eleven sacks along the way. (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Puka Nacua and Kupp hauled in 124 receptions for 1,518 yards and eight touchdowns during that stretch, while (Pro-Bowl Tailback) Kyren Williams rushed for a career-high 1,299 yards and fourteen scores. However, while the offense got back to full strength, a young defense grew exponentially under the watch of (Defensive Coordinator) Chris Shula. For a franchise that had come to be known for eschewing draft capital in favor of veteran talent, it is seriously ironic that they are relying upon so many young defenders. Indeed, Snead’s “!@#$ them picks” mentality appears to have gone by the wayside as the Rams have struck gold over the last two drafts; the defense has sixteen turnovers since the bye week, while proving to be one of the stiffest units within the red zone, where they have allowed their opponents to breach the goal line on just 50.0% of their attempts (5th Overall). Rookies such as (Edge-Rusher) Jared Verse, (Defensive Lineman) Braden Fiske, and (Safety) Kamren Kinchens have all made an impact this season, with Verse’s 4.5 sacks, eleven tackles for loss, thirty-three pressures, and two forced fumbles and recoveries sending him to the Pro-Bowl and establishing himself as the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year honors. As for Kinchens, all three of his interceptions were seismic, including a 103-yard return to the house to knock off the Seahawks back in early November, while his last pick came in the end zone to stave off the Cardinals in the penultimate week of the campaign, clinching the division and allowing many of his teammates to rest for the finale. And it was this unit that made the biggest impact in last Monday night’s stunning 27-9 triumph over the Vikings, which was contested at Arizona’s State Farm Stadium due to the ongoing wildfires decimating Los Angeles. The Rams matched an NFL postseason record with NINE sacks, along with eleven pressures of Sam Darnold, forcing ten throws off-target along the way. Eight different players contributed to that sack total, including (Sophomore Defensive Tackle) Kobie Turner (2.0), while Verse, who was without a sack, returned a fumble fifty-seven yards to the house late in the second period to stretch their lead to 17-3. (Veteran Cornerback) Ahkello Witherspoon forced that fumble, while his young understudy, Cobie Durant picked Darnold off earlier in that same quarter. Shula’s unit also stifled Minnesota three times on four fourth down attempts, as Darnold could complete just twenty-five of his forty throws. Stafford had no such issues, hitting on 19-of-27 passes for 209 yards and a pair of scores, the first to Williams to open their ledger before finding (Sophomore Tight End) Davis Allen for a 13-yard strike just before intermission.

From a betting perspective, the Rams return to the playoffs at 10-7 straight-up and have been almost as rewarding against the spread (9-8), parlaying to a net profit of 0.18 units. This is a team that struggled mightily early on, covering just one of their first six games, but eventually found their footing the rest of the way with now NINE covers over their past twelve outings of the campaign, including last Monday night’s triumph over the Vikings (+2.5). Under the leadership of McVay, this is a franchise that is 74-64-5 versus the spread since he arrived in the City of Angels back in 2017, including 43-34 ATS away from SoFi Stadium, 29-29 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 30-38 ATS when harboring revenge, 40-35 ATS following a SU victory, and 46-52 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered FIVE consecutive contests in the month of January, while covering that same number of games in a row on the road. As for Stafford, the veteran gunslinger is now 54-56 ATS on the road, 51-60 ATS as an underdog, 44-67 ATS with revenge, 51-57 ATS coming off a SU win, and 67-78 ATS versus non-division adversaries. All-time, this is a franchise that is now 27-28 SU in the playoffs, including 12-9 SU in the Division Round (2-1 SU under McVay), splitting their last two appearances on this stage with their most recent showing being a 30-27 victory over the Buccaneers en route to Super Bowl glory three years ago. Looking at this particular matchup, Los Angeles trails the all-time series between these two franchises 24-20-1, with just one win in their last nine encounters, though do own a 2-1 edge in their few playoff meetings, the last coming in the 2001 NFC Championship, a 29-24 affair that vaulted the then Greatest Show on Turf to their second Super Bowl visit in three seasons. Of course, these teams met just two months ago, and it was NOT a pretty performance for McVay & Co, as they were utterly manhandled in a lopsided 37-20 defeat at SoFi. While this was a relatively close game with the hosts trailing 20-14 midway through the third quarter, the visitors erupted for seventeen unanswered points to put things out of reach, despite Stafford’s late touchdown toss to the aforementioned Kupp. When it was all said and done, the Rams were outgained 481-290 in total yards, including 314-92 on the ground, failed to convert any of their eight third downs, and possessed the football for a meager 26:19 of game time. Stafford completed 24-of-36 attempts for 243 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though was under duress throughout the night, suffering five sacks, six hits, and eleven pressures. The tandem of Nacua and Kupp combined for seventeen catches on twenty-four targets for 177 yards, while Williams rushed for seventy-two yards and a score on just sixteen attempts, but it simply wasn’t enough to get the job done. Getting back to Stafford, he is now 5-4 in his payoff career, completing 67.5% of his throws for an average of 296.9 yards on 8.04 net yards per attempt, twenty total touchdowns and eight turnovers, while going 28-of-38 for 366 yards and a pair of scores in his only previous divisional round tilt. As for his ledger against the Eagles, the veteran gunslinger is 4-3 in seven career meetings, with FOURTEEN passing touchdowns in comparison to one lone interception. Perhaps the public have reviewed that last line, for they appear to be warming up to the Rams covering the spread, with approximately 61% of all wagers placed upon the spread sporting blue and gold, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (63%). On the injury front, McVay currently has seven different players languishing on injured reserve, including the likes of (Sophomore Cornerback) Derion Kendrick and (veteran Linebacker) Troy Reeder, but the rest of the team is at relative full strength. Looking ahead, if the Rams happen to pull the upset this afternoon in Philly, then they will be ff to their first NFC Championship Game since 2022, where they will face either the Lions or the Commanders; Los Angeles’ playoff run came to an end at Ford Field last January (24-23) before coming up short once more in the season opener (26-20).
Meanwhile, despite not receiving a first-round bye, there is a real argument to be made that the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East) have been the best team in the NFL for nearly three months. After a disappointing 2-2 start to the campaign, Philadelphia has been a juggernaut since emerging from their early bye week, winning TWELVE of their final thirteen games heading into these playoffs before disposing of the Packers in last weekend’s 22-10 wild card triumph. During this stretch, the birds own the league’s best record (12-1), have outgained opponents by a margin of 1,511 total yards (1st Overall), outscored the opposition by 170 points (2nd Overall), with an average time of possession of 32:46 (1st Overall). Indeed, it appears that (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman got it right after last season’s dramatic collapse, with the former bringing in a pair of impact coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio), while the latter bolstered a porous secondary with sensational rookie defensive backs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) and hitting the biggest home run in free agency in the form of newly minted rushing champion, Saquon Barkley. After six up and down years with the Giants, Barkley (pictured below) made the switch in division where he has erupted for 2,005 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns, becoming only the NINTH player in NFL history to reach that rushing milestone. With the birds’ punishing offensive line and the consistent rushing threat of (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, it is really no surprise how effective Philly has been on the ground this season; Moore is no dummy, curating a ground game that ranked first in rushes (36.5), second in yards (179.3), second in touchdowns (29), and fifth in yards per carry (4.9). That’s not to say that it has been the smoothest of sailing in terms of the passing game, for there had been swirling criticism of his handling of Hurts, some of which came from his own players. With that being said, the 26-year-old passer completed a career-high 68.7%, while cutting down his interception total to a mere five, which is ten fewer than he posted last year. Granted, eighteen touchdowns are a fairly mediocre sum in today’s league, but his continued production on the ground (630 yards, 14 TD) more than makes up for it. As for the job that Fangio did with the defense, the venerable tactician has cleaned up the flaws that were exposed during last year’s collapse. On the season, this unit has been nothing short of stellar, ranking second in points allowed (17.8), first in total defense (278.3), tenth against the run (104.1), sixth in takeaways (26), third on third down (35.5%), and fifth in the red zone (50.0%). As we touched upon earlier, the biggest difference has been the pass defense, which imploded in 2023, shipping the second-most yards (252.7) and touchdowns (35) in the league with only nine interceptions (25th Overall). A year later and this group ranks number one in aerial yards allowed (174.1), sixth in touchdowns (22), with thirteen interceptions (12h Overall). Furthermore, they went from yielding 6.2 net yards per attempt (16th Overall) to 5.1, which is the lowest figure in the NFL. This group was front and center in that win over the packers last weekend, relegating the Cheeseheads’ potent attack to 302 total yards, while racking up a pir of sacks and FOUR takeaways, including a trifecta of interceptions. The birds dominated in this regard, particularly in the first half where they shipped a paltry seventy-six total yards and zero points, picking off Jordan Love twice, while benefitting from a missed 38-yard field goal to boot. On the flipside, Barkley rushed for 119 yards on twenty-five carries, while Hurts added another thirty-six yards on six carries, with 131 passing yards and two touchdowns on 13-of-21 attempts. (Emerging Linebacker) Zack Baun, (veteran Cornerback) Darius Slay, and the aforementioned Mitchell each had an interception, with (Sophomore Edge-Rusher) Nolan Smith accounting for each of the team’s two sacks.

From a betting perspective, the Eagles return to the playoffs with an impressive 14-3 record straight-up, though they have been rewarding against the spread as well (11-6), parlaying to a net profit of 4.0 units. This is a team that overcame a fairly uneven showing in the first half of the season (4-4 ATS), only to turn around and cover EIGHT of their last ten contests, including last weekend’s triumph over the Packers (-5.5). Under the direction of Sirianni, this is a franchise that is a middling 36-35-3 versus the spread since he arrived in the City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, including 16-11 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 23-17 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 22-16 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 20-17 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the NFC East. However, his troops are only 12-21 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, which was the case against green Bay and is so once again this afternoon. As for Hurts, he is now 17-16 ATS at home, 25-26 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 8-23 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 25-22 ATS following a SU win, 24-15 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 25-24 ATS versus non-division adversaries, with his most rewarding role that of a home favorite (15-11 ATS). All-time, Philadelphia is 26-26 SU in the playoffs, including 9-7 SU in the Division Round, with their last appearance at this stage of the postseason resulting in a commanding 38-7 victory over their bitter rivals, the Giants, which kicked off their postseason run to Super Bowl LVII two years ago. Looking at this particular matchup, we covered Philly’s edge in this series (24-20-1), including EIGHT wins in their last nine meetings dating back to 2005, though the playoffs have been a different matter altogether, with their only victory (in three encounters) resulting in the 1949 NFL Championship (14-0). Of course, there is a far more contemporary affair between them, that aforementioned 37-20 battle from late November. This one was all about the birds’ punishing ground game, as Barkley and the offensive line pummeled the Rams into submission as the game progressed. As the visitors clung to a 13-7 lead coming out of halftime, Barkley broke things wide open with a 70-yard jaunt to the end zone on the first play from scrimmage of the half, only for (fellow tailback0 Kenneth Gainwell to hit paydirt with a 13-yard run on their next possession. Finally, with the Eagles leading 30-14 with just under three minutes left in regulation, Barkley ripped off another long scoring sprint (72 yards), delivering the killing blow. In the end, Sirianni’s outfit proved how devastating they can be on the ground, outrushing Los Angeles 314-92, with 255 yards coming courtesy of Barkley, who logged 142 of those yards on just two runs. All in all, the All-Pro registered 302 yards from scrimmage that night, breaking a franchise record and becoming the twelfth player in NFL history to surpass the 300-yard threshold in a single game. With rushing success like that, Philadelphia converted an industrious 9-of-15 third downs and possessed the football for a commanding 33:41 of game time. Hurts didn’t need to do much, rushing for thirty-nine yards on eleven carries, while competing 15-of-22 passes for 179 yards and a 6-yard score to (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown, who in turn logged 109 yards on six catches. Getting back to Hurts, he is now 3-3 in playoff career, completing 63.9% of his throws for an average of 203.0 yards on 6.29 net yards per attempt, with seven touchdowns opposed to a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 37.2 yards per game and five scores with one lost fumble along the way. Furthermore, in three career encounters with the Rams, he is 2-1 with three total touchdowns and one turnover. Even after that bludgeoning in SoCal, the public doesn’t appear overly convinced on these birds covering the spread, with roughly 39% of all wagers placed upon the line backing the home side, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (37%). On the injury front, Sirianni has eight different players currently on injured reserve, the most recent being (emerging Linebacker) Nakobe Dean, who exited last weekend’s affair with a knee malady that will keep him out for the foreseeable future. Dean, a third-round pick from 2022, has flourished within Fangio’s scheme, totaling 128 tackles, nine for loss, three sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception this season, with (veteran Linebacker) Nicholas Morrow in line to take over. Looking ahead, if the Eagles handle their business this afternoon, then they will be off to their second NFC Title Game in three years, where they will either battle the top-seeded Lions or their division rival, the Commanders, whom they split their two annual meetings with this season, a 26-18 victory at Lincoln Financial Field followed by a 36-33 loss in Landover.