
7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Ohio State -8.0, Total: 45.5
Finally, it all comes down to this, folks, as the inaugural run of the now 12-team College Football Playoff reaches its climax, as the (No. 5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish battle the (No. 6) Ohio State Buckeyes for a third time in as many years, though this clash of bluebloods will decide the 2024 National Championship. Owning the longest winning streak of any of the four teams that have reached the semifinals, momentum is building for Notre Dame (14-1, Ind), who stand just one win away from securing their first National Title in THIRTY-SIX years, which is an awfully big deal for one of the most successful programs in the history of the sport. With thirteen National Championships to their credit, the Fighting Irish haven’t tasted that kind of glory in quite a long time, with their last appearance on this stage being a bitter defeat to Alabama in the 2012 BCS Championship Game (42-14). While they’ve experienced their share of ups and downs over the last three decades, there is a feeling about this current group that has been felt in quite some time. Credit to (Head Coach) Marcus Freeman for taking over a program that his predecessor openly admitted couldn’t compete with other elite programs, instead taking them to another level. Sure, there were some missteps early in the form of a stunning 16-14 upset at the hands of Northern Illinois, but since then you would be hard-pressed to find a more impressive side. During this current 13-game run, the Irish have averaged 39.8 points on a robust 418.0 total yards with a takeaway margin of +19. Indeed, (Senior Quarterback) Riley Leonard and (Offensive Coordinator) Mike Denbrock overcame a slow start after transitioning from Duke and LSU respectively, though have clearly settled into a beautiful rhythm that is paying major dividends. Notre Dame manhandled upstart (No. 8) Indiana in the first round of the Playoff (27-17), before doing what their former head coach stated couldn’t be done: beating an elite SEC opponent. Freeman & Co smothered a wounded (No. 2) Georgia in the Quarterfinals (23-10), limiting the Dawgs to a paltry sixty-two rushing yards along the way. Then, a week later, they overcame a late 7-point deficit to overcome (No. 4) Penn State in a dramatic 27-24 triumph. This one looked like it would be a snoozefest early only to liven up in the second half, as the two sides combined to score thirty-one points in the fourth quarter alone. Trailing 24-17 with under five minutes to play in regulation, Leonard struck gold with a 54-yard touchdown throw to (Sophomore Wideout) Jaden Greathouse, squaring the score at 24-24. Then, (Sophomore Cornerback) Christian Gray made the play of the game, intercepting (PSU QB) Drew Allar in his own territory, setting up Leonard to plow his way into field goal range, where (Senior Kicker) Mitch Jeter drilled the 41-yard winner. The Irish outgained the Nittany Lions 384-339 in total yards, but overcame 204 rushing yards and three touchdowns from their adversary’s punishing ground game, and lost the turnover battle 2-1, while also dealing with the brief loss of their QB due to injury. However, Leonard persevered, amassing 233 passing yards and a touchdown despite a pair of interceptions on 15-of-23 attempts, rushing for another thirty-five yards and one more score on a team-high eighteen carries. (Sophomore Tailback) Jeremiyah Love also breached the goal line, with forty-six yards on eleven carries, while Greathouse picked a fine time for a career-high 105 yards on five catches and the seismic touchdown that shifted the balance back in ND’s favor. Defensively, (Senior Linebacker) Jack Kiser was all over the place with ten tackles, while (Northwestern transfer) Rod Heard II logged the lone sack of Allar ont he night.

From a betting perspective, Notre Dame enter tonight’s National Final 14-1 straight-up and have almost been as rewarding against the spread (13-2), parlaying to a net profit of 9.82 units, the highest return of any team that participated in this Playoff. Winners of THIRTEEN consecutive contests since that shocking upset at the hands of Northern Illinois, this is a team that has covered each of their last ELEVEN outings, including last week’s rally over Penn State (+1). Under the direction of Freeman, this is a program that is a stellar 29-11 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2022, including 6-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, a perfect 7-0 ATS when enjoying a week of rest, and 21-8 ATS when coming off a SU victory, with EIGHT straight ATS wins in games contested at neutral sites. The Fighting Irish are a commanding 64-1 SU when they outgain their adversary in total yards and have covered each of their last FIVE bowls affairs, though it should be noted that it has been a different story when they have received more than just a few points from the oddsmakers; the school is just 1-5 ATS in their past six bowls in which they have been an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points, which is precisely the case tonight. Furthermore, ND is on a streak of TEN straight covers versus foes who have enjoyed at least a week of rest, while having covered THIRTEEN consecutive contests when harboring revenge and coming off a SU/ATS victory. Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, the Irish have crossed paths with the Buckeyes in each of the past two campaigns, a 21-10 defeat in the 2022 season opener in Columbus, followed by a narrow 17-14 loss in South Bend a year later. In the former, which happened to be Freeman’s debut against his alma mater, the visitors were stifled offensively, mustering just 253 total yards on a dozen first downs, logging a meager 2.5 yards per rush. As for the latter, his troops clung to a 14-10 lead late in the fourth quarter, before ultimately capitulating at the death as the visitors muscled their way into the end zone with one second remaining in regulation to claim victory. Love rushed for fifty-seven yards on just eight carries, while (Senior Defensive Tackle) Howard Cross III totaled six tackles. All-time, Notre Dame are 23-18 SU in bowls, while taking just two of their eight meetings with Ohio State, which includes just one postseason clash, a 44-28 loss in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl. Coming into this National Championship Game, the public doesn’t appear to be very confident in the luck of the Irish, with approximately 43% of all wagers placed upon the spread praying to Touchdown Jesus, though the disparity in the total money being wagered on this front has been far more level (50%). On the injury front, Freeman’s charges arrive at Mercedes-Benz Stadium at full strength with a clean bill of health. Looking ahead, a win tonight will grant Notre Dame their FOURTEENTH National Title, marking their first since 1988, while Freeman, who recently became the first African American HC to lead his team to this stage, could also become the first to win a natty, on Martin Luther King Day no less. How is that for a storybook ending, folks?
Meanwhile, this expanded Playoff has meant different things to its participants, but for Ohio State (13-2, 7-2 in BIG 10), this dance is about one thing and one thing only: redemption. For a fourth consecutive season, the Buckeyes have fallen to Michigan, with this latest defeat easily the most disappointing. Indeed, after watching their foes win the national championship last January, everything aligned for the axis in this rivalry to be turned on its head. First, the Wolverines bid farewell to their head coach (Jim Harbaugh) and a slew of starters, including nine on the offensive side of the ball alone, and as a result stumbled through an uneven campaign with a 6-5 ledger coming into the matchup. Second, OSU appeared to have stocked up with this game in mind; (Head Coach) Ryan Day tapped into the Transfer Portal in a major way, spending nearly $20 million in NIL funds on the likes of (Quarterback) Will Howard, (Tailback) Quinshon Judkins, (Center) Seth McLaughlin, and (Safety) Caleb Downs, bolstering a roster featuring a bevy of SIXTEEN returning starters who were all hungry for some payback. Furthermore, he convinced his former mentor, (Offensive Coordinator) Chip Kelly, to leave his position as HC at UCLA in favor of calling plays in Columbus. Unfortunately, they came up short in two of their biggest games of the Fall, a narrow 32-31 affair at (No. 1) Oregon followed a month later by their fourth consecutive loss to (bitter rival) Michigan in the season finale. Many around the sport were calling for Day’s head, with multiple media outlets reporting that his position within the program was under fire. With that in mind, he and his troops took control of the narrative and have thus rewritten it completely, hammering (No. 7) Tennessee (42-17) before getting sweet revenge on the Ducks (41-21) to reach their first semifinal since 2020, where they outlasted (No. 3) Texas in an entertaining 28-14 slugfest. In these three victories, Ohio State outgained their adversaries by an average margin of 156.7 total yards, exhibiting dominance on both sides of the football with an ability to produce big plays in short order. Kelly and (Defensive Coordinator) Jim Knowles have proven their value of late, with the offense erupting for 447.6 yards, including 308.3 through the air, while the defense has shipped just 291.0 total yards, despite forcing just two turnovers, both of which came in the triumph over the Longhorns. Against one of the staunchest defenses in the country, OSU relied on the passing game to produce big plays, which they did with aplomb; not long after Texas drew level in the waning moments of the first half, Howard turned right around and found (Senior Tailback) TreVeyon Henderson, who to the surprise of many was left uncovered with a wealth of real estate to operate, sprinting down the sideline seventy-five yards to the house. Then, as we fast-forward to the final stanza, Judkins gave the lead back to OSU with his second rushing score of the night, which eventually led to the most significant play of the contest, which was made not by the offense, but by the defense. After the Horns marched all the way down to the goal line following a pass interference, the Buckeyes held firm, backing their opponent up to the 8-yard line, where (Senior Defensive End) Jack Sawyer, who is one of the most prominent of that returning senior class, killed off the affair with a strip-sack fumble and recovery of (Texas QB) Quinn Ewers, returning the pigskin all the way to the end zone, completely turning the tide in their favor. Ironically, Sawyer and Ewers were roommates in Columbus before the latter transferred to Austin, making this overall redemption arc all the more compelling. In the end, Ohio State outgained their foe by just twenty-nine yards, but won the turnover battle, and turned up gold in the biggest moments. Howard, who had lost each of his previous tilts with Texas when he was at K-State, completed 24-of-33 passes for 289 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while Judkins amassed fifty-eight yards from scrimmage and those two rushing scores on a dozen touches.

From a betting perspective, Ohio State may enter tonight’s National Title Game at 13-2 straight-up, but they haven’t been quite as rewarding against the spread (9-6), parlaying to a net profit of 2.18 units. This is a team that has certainly caught fire at the right time, covering three consecutive contests for the first time this season, beating the spread in each of their three playoff matchups thus far against Tennessee (-7.5), Oregon (-2.5), and most recently Texas (-5.5). Under the leadership of Day, this is a program that is now 43-32-3 versus the spread since he was promoted back in 2019, including 38-29 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 10-7 ATS when enjoying at least a week of rest, 26-26 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 33-24 ATS when following a SU victory, 10-12 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the BIG 10, and 4-6 in games contested at neutral sites. Furthermore, his troops are 46-2 SU against team with a win percentage of .900 or less, while posting a 68-3 SU ledger when they win outgain their opponent. The Buckeyes are also 4-8 ATS when favored by less than twenty-eight points against non-conference foes, which is once again the case tonight. All-time, OSU is 26-23 SU in bowls, including a middling 12-10 in their last twenty-one such postseason appearances. Looking at this particular matchup, the Scarlet & Grey own a 6-2 all-time edge over Notre Dame, winning each of their last five meetings dating back to 1996, including their lone postseason affair (that Fiesta Bowl rout in 2016), while winning each leg of their aforementioned home-and-home series over the past two seasons. When they met in the 2022 opener in Columbus, the hosts dominated en route to a 21-10 victory in which they outgained the Irish 395-253 in total yards, 22-12 in first downs, and 172-76 in rushing yards, with Henderson trampling them to the tune of ninety-one yards on fifteen carries, while (Senior Wideout) Emeka Egbuka hauled in nine receptions for ninety yards and a 31-yard touchdown. Last year’s 17-14 battle in South Bend was a far more dogged matchup, though the visitors prevailed all the same, marching downfield in the waning moments, where (Former Tailback) Chip Trayanum burst through the goal line as the hosts were caught trying to substitute on defense with just one second left. Henderson was once again a force to be reckoned with, totaling 104 rushing yards and a 61-yard score on fourteen carries, while Egbuka added another seven catches for ninety-six yards. Given their current run of form, it is understandable that the public is backing Brutus & Co in tonight’s showdown in Atlanta, as roughly 49% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with OSU, while the total sum of money changing hands on this front is currently deadlocked at 50%. On the injury front, Day is once again without two studs on the offensive line, (Junior Left Tackle) Josh Simmons and the aforementioned McLaughlin, who have both been lost for the season due to respective injuries. Looking ahead, if Ohio State complete their mission tonight, they will have secured their NINTH National Championship in school history and their first since the advent of the Playoff back in 2014, joining Alabama and Clemson as the only schools to win this tourney on multiple occasions.