
6:30 PM EST, CBS/Paramount+ – Spread: Chiefs -2.0, Total: 47.5
The final ticket for Super Bowl LIX will be punched this evening in Arrowhead, as frequent foes renew acquaintances once again in the latest chapter of heated rivalry between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, who are crossing paths for the fourth time in the last five postseasons. The Bills (13-4, 1st in AFC East) are now making their sixth consecutive playoff appearance on the strength of their fifth straight division crown winning TWELVE of their last fourteen games, including last weekend’s bloodbath against the Ravens (more on that in a bit). This was expected to be somewhat of a down season for Buffalo, who parted ways with many high-priced/high-profile players in the Spring, particularly in the receiving corps where (4-time Pro-Bowler) Stefon Diggs was traded away to the Texans. However, for (Head Coach) Sean McDermott and (General Manager) Brandon Beane, it has been addition by subtraction on many fronts, as the offense has been far more streamlined and efficient as a result. This is why (veteran Quarterback) Josh Allen is one of the finalists for MVP, with the 28-year-old thriving without the presence of a target that he had connected with for a whopping 5,372 yards and thirty-seven touchdowns over four years. It is no secret that Allen (pictured below) got a little wild last season, totaling a career-high twenty-two turnovers despite recording a staggering FORTY-FOUR touchdowns. Credit to the 3-time Pro-Bowler for identifying his issues and cleaning them up, for this 2024 version of has been the most efficient in his stellar career; Allen has posted career-lows in both interceptions (6) and sacks (14), while still breaching the end zone with aplomb, scoring FORTY total touchdowns (12 rushing). This campaign has been all about moments for the big fella, whose 26-yard rushing touchdown handed Kansas City their first loss of the year, while his trifecta of passing and rushing scores in a losing effort against the Rams was the first such performance in NFL history, only to throw FIVE touchdowns to take down the mighty Lions a week later. As a whole, the Bills have operated with a ridiculous +24 turnover differential, which is by far and away the best in the NFL this season. Furthermore, Allen has done a brilliant job of distributing the football evenly to his teammates, with nine different players totaling 200+ receiving yards and thirteen different individuals logging a touchdown. (Pro-Bowl Tailback) James Cook has emerged a serious weapon in his third season with the club, sharing the league lead with sixteen rushing touchdowns to go with 1,009 rushing yards on 4.9 yards per carry, while the unheralded Khalil Shakir led the team with seventy-six catches and 821 yards. The hallmarks of their success were all evident in last weekend’s 27-25 triumph over the Ravens, which turned out to be a completely different affair than the 35-10 drubbing that they had incurred in Baltimore back in late September. On that day, McDermott’s troops were outgained 427-236 in total yards, including 271-81 on the ground, with a season-low twelve first downs and 3-of-13 on third down. With that said, it is clear that they had learned from their mistakes in this rematch, as both coordinators, Joe Brady and Bobby Babich, changed their respective approaches, with the former taking it the Blackbirds with the run game, while the latter mixed up his coverages and brought more pressure than usual. Offensively, Brady kept the attack largely grounded in the frigid conditions at Highmark Stadium, rushing for 147 yards and three touchdowns on thirty-six carries, which kept them in manageable situations, converting 5-of-11 third downs and possessing the ball for 31:44. Allen completed 16-of-22 throws for only 127 yards, while rushing for another twenty yards and two touchdowns on ten carries, while Cook churned out sixty-seven yards and a score of his own on seventeen rushes. Defensively, Babich’s unit blitzed Lamar Jackson eleven times, sacking him twice, hitting him on three occasions, and logging six pressures, while hurrying him into an interception on a rushed throw downfield in the first quarter, before (young Safety) Damar Hamlin’s strip-sack in the second quarter was scooped up by (veteran Edge-Rusher) Von Miller and returned thirty-nine yards to their foe’s 24-yard line, leading to and Allen touchdown to break the deadlock. Later in the fourth quarter, (third-year Linebacker) Terrel Bernard stripped Mark Andrews of the ball at midfield eventually leading to a 21-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Tyler Bass. However, the Ravens would have one last shot left in them, as Jackson drove them eighty-eight yards downfield to draw within two points after a touchdown, only for the attempted 2-point conversion to be mishandled by Andrews on what should have been the game-tying play.

From a betting perspective, the Bills return to their first AFC Title Game in four years with a stellar 13-4 record straight-up, while proving rewarding to bettors against the spread (10-7), equating to a return of 2.09 units. This is a team that suffered back-to-back non-covers only once this season, though alternated wins and losses on that front for six straight weeks before logging consecutive postseason covers against the Broncos (-7.5) and most recently the Ravens (+1.5). Under the direction of McDermott, this is a franchise that is now 76-61-1 ATS since he arrived in Orchard Park back in 2017, including 36-28 ATS away from Highmark Stadium, 25-23 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 37-34 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 47-39 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 51-38 ATS against all opposition residing outside of the AFC East. Furthermore, his troops are unbeaten ATS in their last seven games contested on natural grass (6-0-1). As for Allen, the veteran gunslinger is now 30-20 ATS on the road, 19-14 ATS as an underdog, 33-29 ATS versus revenge, 30-18 ATS following a SU victory, 28-23 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins, and 44-32 ATS versus non-division adversaries. All-time, Buffalo is now a middling 21-21 SU all-time in the playoffs, including 4-3 SU in AFC Championships, though it should be noted that their last victory at this advanced stage of the postseason was back in 1994, where they coincidentally bested the Chiefs in a 30-13 affair to reach their fourth consecutive (and subsequently their last) Super Bowl. Looking at this particular matchup, they own a 30-25-1 SU edge in the all-time series with Kansas City, winning five of the last nine meetings overall, though all anyone really cares about is their ledger in the postseason; the Bills have lost all but two of their six playoff encounters, including each of the past three all of which have come in the past four years. In 2020, they were blown out in the AFC Title Game (38-24), before coming up short a year later in one of the most thrilling entries in this rivalry (42-36), while last year’s 27-24 defeat occurred in Orchard Park rather than Arrowhead. It should be noted that Buffalo have covered four of the last six meetings between these clubs, though are 0-3 ATS in those playoff affairs. Of course, they also crossed paths back in mid-November, when McDermott’s charges handed the reigning champs their first loss of the campaign, a 30-21 battle at Highmark. On that day, the hosts once again dominated possession, holding the ball for a commanding 34:03, rushing for 104 yards and three touchdowns on thirty-one carries, while converting a healthy 9-of-15 third downs, but the difference between this tilt and its immediate predecessor was that McDermott’s defense kept the Chiefs in front of them without conceding the big play. When it was all said and done, Babich’s unit held the visitors to a season-low 259 total yards (omitting the season finale in which KC rested many starters), nineteen first downs, just seventy-eight rushing yards, while relegating Patrick Mahomes (much more on him in a bit) to 196 yards on 23-of-33 passing, allowing three touchdowns but also intercepting the 2-time MVP twice. With that being said, this one was still very much in the balance late in the fourth quarter as the home side clung to a 23-21 lead: with 2:31 left in regulation and facing a fourth-and-two from their opponent’s 26-yard line, McDermott opted against a 43-yard field goal and went for the kill shot, which paid off as Allen scrambled to his right before plowing downfield for the touchdown, effectively ending the affair. The MVP candidate finished the evening with 262 yards on 27-of-40 passing with a touchdown and interception apiece, while rushing for another fifty-five yards on a dozen carries and that cathartic score. Speaking of the big fella, he is 4-4 all-time versus the Chiefs, completing 62.5% of his throws for 257.8 yards per game on 6.55 net yards per attempt with seventeen touchdowns opposed to four interceptions, while rushing for another 56.0 yards per contest and five more scores. On the injury front, McDermott has a relatively healthy team at his disposal, with just three players occupying a place on injured reserve, none of which are starters. Keep an eye on the health of the secondary, particularly that status of (veteran Safety) Taylor Rapp and (young Cornerback) Christian Benford, who each exited last weekend’s triumph over the Ravens, the former due to a lingering hip malady and the latter suffering a concussion. Rapp was particularly impactful in that previous win over Kansas City, picking Mahomes off on the opening drive of the evening. Looking ahead, if the Bills do manage to finally get the better of their persistent rivals in today’s postseason affair, then they will be advancing to their first Super Bowl since 1992, where they suffered the second of their infamous succession of defeats, a 37-24 loss to the (then) Washington Redskins, whom are ironically one of the two franchises that they could meet in said final.
Meanwhile, it was only a year ago that we saw the Chiefs (15-2, 1st in AFC West) evolve into a far more pragmatic group that relied more on a methodical passing game, a physical rushing attack, and an aggressive defense, “upsetting” the Bills and Ravens on the road before besting the 49ers once again in Super Bowl LVIII. While there were initial designs of expanding the offense and returning to their high-flying days of old, this campaign has seen Kansas City double-down on their previous methods of success; (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s offense ranks a middling fifteenth in points per game (22.6) and sixteenth in total yards (327.6), along with fourteenth in passing (238.0) and twenty-second in both rushing (105.3) and red zone percentage (53.8%). And if that’s not enough, then consider this: KC is the first team to win fifteen games in NFL history and NOT score thirty or more points in a single game during the regular season. Furthermore, ELEVEN of their victories have come by one possession, with six decided by five or fewer points. That’s rather remarkable for a team headlined by (2-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes, who despite turning in arguably his least-prolific campaign has nonetheless fueled their run to a NINTH consecutive division title. Now in his eighth season (seventh as the starting QB) Mahomes (pictured below) completed a career-high 67.5% of his throws, though matched his lowest touchdown output (26), yards per game (245.5), yards per attempt (6.8), net yards per attempt (5.98), and yards per completion (10.0), all the while suffering a personal-worst thirty-six sacks. With that being said, the 29-year-old has been cold as ice in the clutch, leading the NFL with FIVE fourth-quarter comebacks and an impressive SEVEN game-winning drives. Even with an aging (All-Pro Tight End) Travis Kelce, an overall skill position group that has been ravaged by injury throughout the season, and an offensive line that has also been plagued by absences, Mahomes continues to adjust and persevere. This was the case with last weekend’s 23-14 victory over the Texans in the Division Round, which saw the reigning champions coming off a whopping TWENTY-THREE days of rest. As you can imagine, the hosts started fairly slowly, settling for a pair of field goals on the first two drives before punting on the third, but they would eventually find their footing with a 5-play, 55-yard drive midway through second quarter culminating with a short lunge into the end zone by (veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt. Houston would charge back with nine unanswered points to cut the deficit to 13-12, only for Mahomes to retaliate with a lengthy 13-play, 81-yard drive ending with an 11-yard strike to Kelce, followed by a 27-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker to extend their advantage to twelve points, effectively ending the game. When it was all said and done, Kansas City was outgained 212-336 in total yards, 14-18 in first downs, 149-50 in rushing yards, and possessed the ball for just 26:34 of game time, though compensated for all of that with NINETY-FIVE return yards between Nikko Remigio and Samaje Perine, including a 63-yarder on the opening kickoff from the former. Furthermore, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo got after the visiting CJ Stroud, sacking the sophomore QB on EIGHT occasions for a loss to fifty-eight yards, along with six hits and sixteen pressures. That equates to an untenable 39.0% of his dropbacks, folks, which wholly disrupted the opposing attack. Mahomes completed 16-of-25 passes for 177 yards and that touchdown to Kelce, who turned back the clock and turned in a vintage performance with seven receptions for 117 yards on eight targets, which turned out to be his NINTH career 100-yard playoff game, tying the legendary Jerry Rice. Lastly, we would be remiss if we failed to touch upon the self-inflicted wounds of their opponent; Houston became the first team in NFL history (49-1) to lose a playoff game in which they had outgained their adversary by at least 100 yards and committed zero turnovers, though fell victim to a missed field goal, a failed extra point, a blocked field goal, a failed fourth-down attempt, all of that return yardage, and all of those sacks, while drawing eight the ire of the officials on eight occasions for a loss of eighty-two yards. Admittedly, that last figure has become a bit of a hot topic with the Chiefs, with the general public feeling that they have been receiving preferential treatment from the referees throughout the season. However, this is simply a case of pressure, and how you handle it; the champs rarely beat themselves, while their foes routinely struggle to make plays, or more appropriately refrain from making mistakes, in the clutch, which again speaks to how successful they have been in all of these close games.

From a betting perspective, the Chiefs enter their SEVENTH straight AFC Championship Game with the best record in the NFL straight-up (15-2), but it has been a different story against the spread (7-9-1), parlaying to a net loss of 2.64 units. When it comes to winning without covering, this team have become masters at their craft, logging a ridiculous NINE SU victories without logging the cover, including last weekend’s win over the Texans (-9.5) where that late safety threw the betting public into a frenzy. Under the leadership of Reid, this is a franchise that is now 117-99-4 versus the spread since he arrived at Arrowhead back in 2013, including 53-58 ATS at home, 87-83-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 40-34 ATS when harboring revenge, 81-72-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 80-66 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, his troops have covered six of their last seven postseason outings, though are just 1-7 ATS over their past eight contests following a non-cover. Kansas City has also failed to cover SEVEN games in a row immediately after rushing for less than ninety yards, which is the case this evening. As for Mahomes, the magic man is now a middling 34-34 ATS at home, 56-55-1 ATS as a favorite, 20-17-1 ATS with revenge, 51-45-1 ATS following a SU victory, 48-29-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 53-38 ATS against non-division adversaries. All-time, this is a franchise that is now 25-21 SU in the playoffs, including 6-3 in AFC Championships, with a 4-2 SU ledger during the Mahomes era. Looking at this particular matchup, the Chiefs trail the all-time series with the Bills (30-25-1 SU), though as well know have absolutely OWNED this rivalry in the playoffs, particularly of late with three consecutive victories, each of which coincidentally resulting in a trip to the Super Bowl. The first of these was the 2020 AFC Championship Game (38-24), in which Kansas City rallied back from an early deficit to outscore the visitors 31-6 between the second and third quarters. Next up was that classic 42-36 shootout at Arrowhead a year later, in which the two sides combined for 974 total yards (707 through the air), fifty-three first downs, and SEVEN passing touchdowns. Trailing 36-33 with just thirteen seconds left, Mahomes drove the hosts downfield with just two passes, setting up the 49-yard field goal to push the affair to overtime, where they won the toss, took the ball and hit paydirt via an 8-yard strike from Mahomes to Kelce. Lastly, there was last year’s divisional clash in Orchard Park, in which Mahomes earned his first career playoff victory on the road, moving up and down the field with ease en route to a 27-24 victory. Despite only possessing the ball for a scant 22:57, the visitors racked up 361 total yards, facing just FIVE third downs on the night. As for the most recent chapter in their story, Reid’s charges came up short in November’s trip to Highmark, that aforementioned 30-21 loss; this was arguably the poorest offensive performance of the season for KC, who could muster just 259 total yards, including seventy-eight rushing yards on just seventeen carries, while Mahomes needed thirty-three passing attempts just to amass 196 yards. Furthermore, he was picked off twice with bookending interceptions despite tossing three touchdowns, while Spagnuolo’s defense couldn’t get off the field as Buffalo converted 9-of-15 third downs and 1-of-2 fourth downs. Getting back to #15, he is a staggering 16-3 in his postseason career, completing 67.2% of his throws for 279.6 yards on 7.27 net yards per attempt, with FORTY-TWO touchdowns in comparison to just eight interceptions, while rushing for another 36.7 yards per contest and five scores to boot. As for his CV against the Bills, he is 4-4 all-time with eighteen touchdowns opposed to seven interceptions, but as we’ve continued to emphasize it has been a different story in the playoffs: Mahomes has a 10/7 TD/INT ratio versus Buffalo in the regular season, but has been lights out in those January matchups, totaling eight scores to zero picks. On the injury front, Reid and his staff have a largely healthy team with no significant injuries to speak of coming into this evening’s showdown. Looking ahead, if the Chiefs prove victorious yet again, then they will advance to their FIFTH Super Bowl in the last six years, while gunning for their THIRD consecutive Lombardi Trophy, which would mark the first time in NFL history that there has ever been a threepeat, where they will meet either the Eagles or Commanders. Of course, Kansas City rallied back to defeat Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII two years ago, coming back from 24-14 halftime deficit to triumph 38-35.