3:00 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Eagles -6.0, Total: 47.5
As we reach the end of January, the NFL’s final four is upon us as Conference Championship weekend kicks off with a renewal of acquaintances between the surging Philadelphia Eagles and the upstart Washington Commanders, who cross paths in this rubber match of bitter division rivals with a ticket to Super Bowl LIX on the line. Parity has been a valuable selling point in the NFL for quite some time, with the allure of any team being able to go from the outhouse to the penthouse in relatively short order, with the Commanders (12-5, 2nd in NFC East) being the latest to do just that. Over the previous eight seasons, Washington had been the definition of mediocre, owning a 43-71-1 (.373) record during that stretch, earning just one playoff appearance along the way. Following last year’s dismal 4-13 finish, (new Principal Owner) Josh Harris initiated a complete makeover of a franchise that had been in dire need of one for ages, with the mandate being a total shift in culture. With that in mind, he hit a pair of home runs in the form of (General Manager) Adam Peters, formerly chief scout of the 49ers, and (Head Coach) Dan Quinn, who had spent the previous three years coordinating the Cowboys’ opportunistic defense. From there, the club hit arguably the biggest home run of the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting (Heisman winner) Jayden Daniels second overall with the hope that he would become the franchise quarterback that they have been searching for in Landover for three decades. Thankfully for everyone involved, Daniels (pictured below) has gone on to exceed all expectations, becoming the sixth rookie to start in a conference title game since 1999. With (Offensive Coordinator) Kliff Kingsbury pushing the buttons, the 24-year-old is the frontrunner to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, completing an efficient 69.0% of his throws for 3,568 yards on 6.32 net yards per attempt, with twenty-five touchdowns opposed to nine interceptions, all the while posting a QBR of 70.6. Furthermore, his mobility has transitioned quite nicely to the professional stage, with another 891 yards and six more scores coming via his legs. Indeed, Kingsbury has turned him into a lethal weapon on RPO (Run Pass Options), with 589 of his passing yards and 200 yards of his rushing ledger coming on such plays. However, the reason that he will in all likelihood take home that coveted rookie hardware is because of his play in the clutch this season, which has been well beyond his years. Daniels has posted a quartet of fourth-quarter comebacks/game-winning drives, including that miraculous Hail Mary to beat the Bears (and number one overall pick Caleb Williams) back in late October, followed later by his 5-touchdown performance to hand the Eagles their only defeat since late September (more on that one in a bit). He is the kind of playmaker that elevates the talent around him, with the offense as a whole being one of the most potent in the NFL; Washington ranks fifth in points scored (28.5), seventh in total yards (369.6), fourth in first downs (380), eighth in turnovers committed (16), third in rushing yards (154.1), fourth in rushing touchdowns (25), fourth in yards per carry (5.0), sixth on third down (45.6%), first on fourth down (87.0%), and sixth in the red zone (63.4%). That efficiency has continued into the postseason with successive upsets of the Buccaneers (23-20) and most recently the Lions (45-31), with that latter performance opening the eyes of the nation last Saturday night. The visitors had their foot on the gas from the opening kickoff, folks, scoring touchdowns on FIVE of seven possessions at one point, while (Sophomore Defensive Back) Quan Martin’s 40-yard interception return late in the first half saw them extend their lead to ten points before halftime. Kingsbury and Daniels had answers for everything that the hosts brought at them, besting the blitz on 12-of-15 occasions, including on 3-of-4 fourth downs, with the QB completing 22-of-31 throws for 299 yards and a pair of touchdowns, along with another fifty-one yards via the rush. As a team, Washington rushed for 182 yards on an industrious forty-two attempts, with the tandem of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler combining for 124 yards and two scores of their own. (Pro-Bowl Wideout) Terry McLaurin hauled in four catches on six targets for eighty-seven yards and a 58-yard touchdown, while (veteran Tight End) Zach Ertz was responsible for the other receiving score. However, as impressive as the attack was, props must go to Quinn’s defense, which turned over the Lions not once, not twice, not thrice, and not four times, but on FIVE occasions, all but one being interceptions. Martin’s was most impactful, but (Rookie Cornerback) Mike Sainristil pair of picks kept Detroit from closing the deficit, with his first coming in the end zone just before intermission. This group has been of the bend-but-don’t-break variety all season, ranking eighteenth overall in points allowed (23.0) and thirteenth in total defense (326.9) during the regular season, though have thrived with a +6-takeaway differential in the playoffs thus far.
From a betting perspective, the Commanders come into their first conference title game in over three decades at 12-5 straight-up, while being almost as rewarding against the spread (10-6-1), parlaying to a net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has been fairly consistent throughout the campaign in that latter regard, apart from a 3-game stretch without a cover, entering this afternoon on a 5-2 run versus the spread, which now includes successive upsets of the Bucs (+3) and most recently the Lions (+8). Under the direction of Quinn, this is a franchise that is 12-6-1 ATS in his first year in the nation’s capital, including 5-4-1 ATS away from Landover, 5-2-1 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 3-0 ATS versus an opponent harboring revenge, 10-3-1 ATS when coming off a SU win, and 3-3 ATS against all opposition residing within the NFC East. Furthermore, between his tenures with Atlanta and Washington, he is 18-4-1 ATS as an underdog fresh off a SU victory, which is once again the case tonight. As for Daniels, he too is 12-6-1 ATS, including 5-4-1 ATS on the road, 5-2-1 ATS as a dog, 3-0 ATS versus revenge, 10-3-1 ATS following a SU victory, 9-2-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back SU wins, and 303 ATS versus division foes. Washington has covered ELEVEN of thirteen contests following back-to-back SU victories and ready to face a division rival who are above .500, besting Philadelphia in this same role earlier this season. All-time, this is a franchise that is now 25-20 SU in the playoffs, including 5-1 SU in the Conference Championship, winning each of their last two appearances at this stage of the postseason, the most recent being the 1991 NFC Title Game against Detroit, a 41-10 triumph that helped propel them to their last Lombardi Trophy. Looking at this particular matchup, the Commanders own a narrow 90-86-6 edge in the all-time series with the Eagles, winning just two of their last eight meetings dating back to 2021. Interestingly, these frequent foes have clashed just once in the playoffs, a 20-6 victory in the Wild Card Round of that same successful postseason run, featuring hallowed figures such as Joe Gibbs, Earnest Byner, Art Monk, and Darrell Green. Of course, they split their two meetings during this past regular season, with each side winning on their home turf. After coming up short on a Thursday night at Lincoln Financial Field (26-18), Washington earned a measure of revenge little over a month later in a 36-33 affair in Landover, which saw Daniels rally the hosts back from an early 21-7 deficit, overcoming FIVE turnovers along the way. Quinn’s charges scored touchdowns on three of their final four possessions of the afternoon, as Daniels found (veteran Wideout) Jameson Crowder for a 9-yard go-ahead touchdown, followed by a successful 2-point conversion courtesy of (Backup Tailback) Jeremy McNichols to make it a 3-point lead. When it was all said and done, the home side outgained the birds 368-338, though were outrushed 211-113, but managed to sustain drives thanks to a combined 9-of-15 on third and fourth down, while limiting the damage by holding Philly to four field goals despite long trips deep into enemy territory. Daniels completed 24-of-39 passes for 258 yards and a career-high FIVE touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another eighty-one yards on nine carries. In two games versus the Eagles, the OROY frontrunner has completed 64.7% of his throws for an average of 224.5 yards on 6.00 net yards per attempt, with six touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, while rushing for another 49.5 yards per game on a healthy 6.1 yards per carry. On the injury front, Quinn has a relatively healthy team on his hands with just six players occupying a place on injured reserve, though they did lose (young Guard) Sam Cosmi in last weekend’s triumph to a torn ACL that will keep the versatile 25-year-old out of action for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead, if the Commanders manage to pull a third consecutive upset in these playoffs, then they will be competing in their first Super Bowl since 1992, when they obliterated the Bills in a 37-24 affair, the last of a run of three Lombardi Trophies within a 10-year span.
Meanwhile, despite not receiving a first-round bye, there is a real argument to be made that the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East) have been the best team in the NFL for nearly three months. After a disappointing 2-2 start to the campaign, Philadelphia has been a juggernaut since emerging from their early bye week, winning TWELVE of their final thirteen games heading into these playoffs before disposing of the Packers (22-10) and most recently the Rams (28-22) in successive weeks of this postseason. During this stretch, the birds own the league’s best record (12-1), have outgained opponents by a margin of 1,511 total yards (1st Overall), outscored the opposition by 170 points (2nd Overall), with an average time of possession of 32:46 (1st Overall). Indeed, it appears that (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman got it right after last season’s dramatic collapse, with the former bringing in a pair of impact coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio), while the latter bolstered a porous secondary with sensational rookie defensive backs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) and hitting the biggest home run in free agency in the form of newly minted rushing champion, Saquon Barkley. After six up and down years with the Giants, Barkley (pictured below) made the switch within division where he has erupted for 2,005 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns, becoming only the NINTH player in NFL history to reach that rushing milestone. With the birds’ punishing offensive line and the consistent rushing threat of (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, it is really no surprise how effective Philly has been on the ground this season; Moore is no dummy, curating a ground game that ranked first in rushes (36.5), second in yards (179.3), second in touchdowns (29), and fifth in yards per carry (4.9). That’s not to say that it has been the smoothest of sailing in terms of the passing game, for there had been swirling criticism of his handling of Hurts, some of which came from his own players. With that being said, the 26-year-old passer completed a career-high 68.7%, while cutting down his interception total to a mere five, which is ten fewer than he posted last year. Granted, eighteen touchdowns are a fairly mediocre sum in today’s league, but his continued production on the ground (630 yards, 14 TD) more than makes up for it. As for the job that Fangio did with the defense, the venerable tactician has cleaned up the flaws that were exposed during last year’s collapse. On the season, this unit has been nothing short of stellar, ranking second in points allowed (17.8), first in total defense (278.3), tenth against the run (104.1), sixth in takeaways (26), third on third down (35.5%), and fifth in the red zone (50.0%). As we touched upon earlier, the biggest difference has been the pass defense, which imploded in 2023, shipping the second-most yards (252.7) and touchdowns (35) in the league with only nine interceptions (25th Overall). A year later and this group ranks number one in aerial yards allowed (174.1), sixth in touchdowns (22), with thirteen interceptions (12h Overall). Furthermore, they went from yielding 6.2 net yards per attempt (16th Overall) to 5.1, which is the lowest figure in the NFL. However, last weekend’s victory over the Rams was all about Barkley and Hurts for very different reasons. For Barkley, he trampled Los Angeles for the second time this season, rushing for 205 yards and a pair of long touchdowns (60+ yards apiece), fifty yards short of the total he posted in their previous meeting from back in late November. In two games, versus the Rams, the rushing champion amassed 455 yards on fifty-two carries, which is the most by a single player in two games against the same team in one campaign. As for Hurts, he opened his team’s ledger with a 44-yard jaunt to the end zone, but suffered an apparent knee injury late in the second half and never looked quite the same. Granted, the winter conditions grew progressively worse as the game went on, which isn’t conducive to his skillset (15-of-20 passing for 128 yards), but there is no question that he struggled to make plays while the visitors mounted their rally. Credit Fangio’s defense for adjusting to the elements, folks, for despite shipping 402 total yards, they held LA to 6-of-16 on third down, sacked Matthew Stafford five times, and forced two crucial turnovers in the second half, both of which were fumbles in enemy territory. (Sophomore defenders) Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith each punched the ball loose on back-to-back possessions, with each resulting in a field goal. Carter has been borderline dominant in his second season with the birds, while continuing his play in this one in posting five tackles, two for loss, a pair of sacks, three QB hits, a deflected pass, and one of those forced fumbles.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles return to the NFC Title Game after a 1-year hiatus with an impressive 14-3 record straight-up, while proving to be rewarding against the spread as well (11-6), parlaying to a net profit of 4.0 units. This is a team that overcame a fairly uneven showing in the first half of the season (4-4 ATS), only to turn around and cover EIGHT of their last eleven contests, though failed to do so in last weekend’s win over the Rams (-7). Under the direction of Sirianni, this is a franchise that is a middling 36-36-3 versus the spread since he arrived in the City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, including 16-12 ATS at Lincoln Financial Field, 23-18 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 13-8 ATS when harboring revenge, 22-17 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 29-20 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC East. As for Hurts, he is now 17-17 ATS at home, 25-27 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 20-9 ATS with revenge, 25-23 ATS following a SU win, 24-16 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 9-13 ATS versus division adversaries, with his most rewarding role that of a home favorite (15-12 ATS). All-time, Philadelphia is 27-26 SU in the playoffs, including 4-4 SU in the Conference Championship Round of the postseason, winning their most recent venture to this stage, a 31-7 drubbing of the 49ers two years ago. Looking at this particular matchup, the birds trail the Commanders 90-86-6 in the all-time series, winning TWELVE of the last sixteen encounters, including six of the past eight contested at Lincoln Financial Field. As we touched upon earlier, these franchises have remarkably met only once in the playoffs, that aforementioned 20-6 affair from thirty-three years ago, which featured legendary figures such as Buddy Ryan, Randall Cunningham, Keith Jackson, Eric Allen, and the late Reggie White. As for more recent skirmishes between these teams, they split their two battles from this past regular season, with Sirianni’s outfit handling their business at home back in mid-November (26-18), before blowing a sizable lead that 36-33 shootout from a month later in Landover. Philly imposed its will in terms of rushing the ball in both entries in this rivalry, averaging 219.5 yards on the ground, but it should be noted that their defeat in the latter affair was brought on largely due to Hurts getting knocked out of the action due to a wrist injury late in the first quarter. (Backup QB) Kenny Pickett hit on 14-of-24 passes for 143 yards, a touchdown and an interception, while suffering three sacks and eight pressures, which was a big reason as to why his team had to settle for a quartet of field goals from (veteran Kicker) Jake Elliott. Despite forcing FIVE turnovers on the day, Fangio’s defense capitulated too often down the stretch, shipping three touchdowns on their opponent’s final four drives, including the final 9-play, 57-yard possession resulting in that short toss into the end zone and ensuing 2-point conversion. Over the course of their careers, both Hurts and Barkley have performed well against Washington, with the former completing 65.0% of his passes for an average of 218.6 yards on 7.92 net yards per attempt, with twelve touchdowns opposed to three interceptions, rushing for another 31.6 yards per contests and six more scores to boot, while the latter has amassed 137.5 yards from scrimmage and a dozen touchdowns on 6.3 yards per touch. On the injury front, Sirianni has a bit more on his hands than his counterpart, with eight different players sitting on injured reserve, with the status of (young Linebacker) Nakobe Dean and the aforementioned Mitchell are in question. Dean suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee in the win over Green Bay and will this miss the rest of the postseason, while Mitchell hurt his shoulder midway through the battle with Los Angeles, though he is expected to be in line to start this afternoon’s rubber match. There is also the matter of Hurts, who tweaked his knee on an awkward tackle early in the fourth quarter, forcing him to resort to wearing a brace and limiting his mobility the rest of the way. His status will be evaluated in the coming days. Looking ahead, if the Eagles handle their business at home, then they will be off to their fifth Super Bowl in franchise history (1-3) and their second in three years. Ironically, one of their potential opponents could be the (reigning champion) Chiefs, who rallied back to best them in Super Bowl LVII (38-35).