6:30 PM EST, FOX – Spread: Chiefs -1.5, Total: 49.5
Finally, it all comes down to this, folks, as the Super Bowl LIV concludes the 2024 campaign with a clash of proverbial titans, the (reigning Super Bowl Champion) Kansas City Chiefs, who are in reach of a historic threepeat, and the mighty Philadelphia Eagles, who are looking for revenge after falling to this same opponent on this precise stage just two years ago. On the cusp of making history, it should be noted that the Chiefs (15-2, 1st in AFC West) have already made some history in advancing to this, their third Super Bowl in as many years: of the NINE back-to-back Lombardi holders in league history, Kansas City is the first to ever return to this ultimate stage of the playoffs. It was only a year ago that we saw this team evolve into a far more pragmatic group that relied more on a methodical passing game, a physical rushing attack, and an aggressive defense, “upsetting” the Bills and Ravens on the road before besting the 49ers once again in Super Bowl LVIII. Though there were designs on returning to their high-flying days of old, this campaign has seen KC double down on that previous method of success; (Head Coach) Andy Reid’s offense ranks fifteenth in points per game (22.6) and sixteenth in total yards (327.6), along with fourteenth in passing (238.0) and twenty-second in both rushing (105.3) and red zone percentage (53.8%). And if that’s not enough, then consider this: this is the first team to win fourteen or more games in NFL history and NOT score 30+ points in a single game during the regular season. Furthermore, ELEVEN of their victories have come by one possession, with six decided by five or fewer points. That’s rather remarkable for a team headlined by (2-time MVP) Patrick Mahomes, who despite turning in his least-prolific campaign has nonetheless fueled their run to a NINTH consecutive division title. Mahomes (pictured below) completed a career-high 67.5% of his throws, though matched his lowest touchdown output (26), yards per game (245.5), yards per attempt (6.8), net yards per attempt (5.98), and yards per completion (10.0), all the while suffering a personal-worst thirty-six sacks. With that being said, the 29-year-old has been as cold as ice in the clutch, leading the NFL with FIVE fourth-quarter comebacks and an impressive SEVEN game-winning drives. Even with an overall skill position group that has been ravaged by injury throughout the season, and an offensive line that has also been plagued by absences, Mahomes continues to adjust and persevere. The Chiefs punched their ticket to Super Bowl LIX with another triumph over a familiar foe, besting the Bills for the fourth time in five postseasons in a 32-29 victory at Arrowhead Stadium. After scoring touchdowns on three of their first four drives of the evening to take a 21-10 lead late in the second quarter, the hosts lost control of the game as Buffalo bookended halftime with touchdowns of their own, retaking the lead towards the end of the third period. However, as the visitors slowly marched into enemy territory they were halted on a crucial fourth-and-one at the 41-yard line, which was upheld following the review of controversial QB sneak. That play would turn the tide back in Kansas City’s favor, as Mahomes hit (veteran Receiver) JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 29-yard strike to reach the red zone, eventually taking it upon himself to scurry ten yards for the go-ahead touchdown (and 2-point conversion) three plays later. While the Bills would draw level on the next drive, Reid’s troops once again drove deep into enemy territory, settling for a 25-yard field goal courtesy of (veteran Kicker) Harrison Butker, leaving 3:37 on the clock for any potential rally. Thankfully, (Defensive Coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo once again proved his weight in gold, dialing up a cornerback blitz to force a desperate heave from Josh Allen, whose pass was dropped by Dalton Kincaid, effectively ending the game. The Chiefs overcame being outgained (374-368) and outrushed (147-135), while committing the game’s lone turnover, though had little trouble moving the rock, facing just nine third downs and piling up twenty-eight first downs, with timely plays on defense helping to save the day. Spagnuolo’s unit did a tremendous job of stopping Buffalo twice on fourth down, while forcing FOUR fumbles (recovering none) and halting Allen on multiple sneaks in short yardage situations. As for Mahomes, he completed 18-of-26 throws for 245 yards and an 11-yard touchdown to (Rookie Wideout) Xavier Worthy, rushing for another forty-three yards and two more scores on eleven carries. Worthy reeled in six receptions on seven targets for eighty-five yards and that touchdown, while (veteran Tailback) Kareem Hunt rushed for sixty-four hard yards on seven carries and a 12-yard score to open their ledger in an affair that marked the first time all season that they managed to crack thirty points.
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs enter their FIFTH Super Bowl appearance in the last six years at an NFL-best 15-2 straight-up, though haven’t been close to as rewarding against the spread (7-9-1), equating to a net loss of 2.64 units; this is a team that mastered the art of winning without covering the spread throughout the campaign, with EIGHT of their SU victories coming without the benefit of a cover, which includes a dismal 1-8-1 ATS ledger when favored by 4.5 points or more. With that being said, they have covered four of their past six outings (including playoffs), besting Buffalo in that aforementioned AFC Title Game (-1.5). Under the leadership of Reid, this is a franchise that is now 118-99-4 versus the spread since he arrived at Arrowhead back in 2013, including 88-83-1 ATS when favored by the oddsmakers, 12-12 ATS when enjoying the luxury of rest, 41-34 ATS when harboring revenge, 82-72-1 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 81-66 ATS versus all opposition residing outside of the AFC West. Furthermore, it is well known that big red is one of the most tactful in NFL history when coming off a bye, which is once again the case this evening; Reid is 25-4 SU all-time when having an extra week off to prepare for his opponent, including 3-2 SU in Super Bowls. His troops have also covered SEVEN of their last eight postseason outings. As for Mahomes, the magic man is now a middling 57-55-1 ATS in his career as a favorite, 21-17-1 ATS with revenge, 52-45-1 ATS following a SU victory, 49-29-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back wins, and 54-38 ATS against non-division adversaries. His impressive playoff CV continues to grow, folks, with the 29-year-old owning a 17-3 SU record, completing 67.7% of his throws for an average of 277.8 yards on a healthy 7.33 net yards per attempt, with FORTY-THREE touchdowns opposed to tossing just eight interceptions, while rushing for another 29.1 yards per contest and seven more scores. Taking it one step further, the 3-time Super Bowl MVP is 3-1 at this stage, hitting on 65.2% of his passes for 267.8 yards on 6.20 net yards per attempt, with eight total touchdowns in comparison to five turnovers. All-time, Kansas City is now 26-21 SU in the playoffs, including 4-2 SU in Super Bowls, winning three of their last four appearances. Looking at this particular matchup, the reigning champs are 6-5 SU all-time against the Eagles, taking their lone postseason encounter in that thrilling 38-35 rally in Super Bowl LVII from two years ago. Trailing 24-14 at halftime, KC flipped the script post intermission scoring on each of their four possessions, including three straight touchdowns to retake the lead before their opponent drew level with 5:15 left in regulation. However, Mahomes broke free for a virtuoso 26-yard scramble up the middle of the field to set up Butker’s game-winner from twenty-seven yards out. It was yet another timely play for a team that has made quite a living in that department, with a key scoop-and-score courtesy of (veteran Linebacker) Nick Bolton tying the score midway through the second period, while (former Wideout) Kadarius Toney’s 65-yard punt return brought the ball all the way to Philly’s 5-yard line, setting up Mahomes’ third touchdown toss of the game to move ahead 35-27. Despite possessing the ball for just 24:13 of game time, the Chiefs kept their foe’s prolific pass-rush at bay with 158 rushing yards on twenty-six carries, while facing just eight third downs on the night, which gives further credence that they cracked the defensive code. Hell, Mahomes wasn’t sacked once, while facing seven pressures on twenty-seven drop-backs. The eventual MVP of the affair completed 21-of-27 attempts for a modest 182 yards and three scores, while rushing for forty-four yards on six carries. (Third-year Tailback) Isiah Pacheco rushed fifteen times for seventy-six yards and a touchdown, while (10-time Pro-Bowl Tight End) Travis Kelce hauled in six of eight catches for eighty-one yards and a score of his own. Despite that history, the public don’t appear to be backing KC in this rematch, with roughly 34% of all wagers placed upon the spread donning red, with a smaller share of all being wagered thus far (28%) following suit. On the injury front, the offensive line has been a revolving door throughout the season and bears watching in this matchup against Philadelphia’s imposing defensive front; (veteran Guard) Joe Thuney has kicked out to man the blindside in place of the injured Tackles, Wanya Morris and D.J. Humphries, which has played a role in their protection issues thus far. If the Chiefs prove victorious this evening, then they will have secured their fifth Lombardi Trophy in the long, proud history of the franchise, becoming not only the FIFTH team to claim that many titles, but the first to win three successive such championships.
Meanwhile, there is a real argument to be made that the Eagles (14-3, 1st in NFC East) have been the best team in the NFL for nearly three months. After a disappointing 2-2 start, Philadelphia has been a juggernaut since emerging from their early bye week, winning TWELVE of their final thirteen games heading into these playoffs before plowing their way to a second NFC Championship in three years. Indeed, it appears that (Head Coach) Nick Sirianni and (General Manager) Howie Roseman got it right after last season’s dramatic collapse, with the former bringing in a pair of impact coordinators (Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio), while the latter bolstered a porous secondary with sensational rookie defensive backs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) and hitting the biggest home run in free agency in the form of newly minted rushing champion, Saquon Barkley. After six up and down years with the Giants, Barkley (pictured below) made the switch within division, erupting for 2,005 rushing yards and thirteen touchdowns, becoming only the NINTH player in NFL history to reach that rushing milestone. With the birds’ punishing offensive line and the consistent rushing threat of (veteran Quarterback) Jalen Hurts, Moore has curated a ground game that ranked first in rushes (36.5), second in yards (179.3), second in touchdowns (29), and fifth in yards per carry (4.9). Despite a fairly uneven performance throwing the ball, Hurts (pictured alongside Barkley) completed a career-high 68.7%, while cutting down his interception total to a mere five, which is ten fewer than he posted last year. Granted, eighteen touchdowns are a fairly mediocre sum in today’s league, but his continued production on the ground (630 yards, 14 TD) more than makes up for it. As for Fangio, the venerable tactician has cleaned up the flaws that were exposed during last year’s collapse; this unit has been nothing short of stellar, ranking second in points allowed (17.8), first in total defense (278.3), tenth against the run (104.1), sixth in takeaways (26), third on third down (35.5%), and fifth in the red zone (50.0%). As we touched upon earlier, the biggest difference has been the pass defense, which imploded in 2023, shipping the second-most yards (252.7) and touchdowns (35) in the league with only nine interceptions (25th Overall). A year later and this group ranks number one in aerial yards allowed (174.1), sixth in touchdowns (22), with thirteen interceptions (12h Overall). Furthermore, they went from yielding 6.2 net yards per attempt (16th Overall) to 5.1, which is the lowest figure in the NFL. The Eagles booked their trip to Super Bowl LIV with a triumph over a familiar adversary of their own, eliminating the upstart Commanders in a 55-23 rout at Lincoln Financial Field (the highest-scoring conference title game in NFL history), taking the rubber match after splitting their two meetings during the regular season. Believe it or not, this one was fairly competitive, folks, at least until the waning moments of the first half when the hosts scored successive touchdowns bookending a crucial fumble recovery on a kick return, which gave them the ball back deep within Washington territory. Emerging from intermission with a 27-15 lead, the two sides traded punts before Philadelphia added another touchdown, as Hurts led them right downfield on three passes before taking it into the end zone himself on a 9-yard rushing score. The visitors would trim the deficit to eleven points following a touchdown and 2-point conversion but were completely unable to stop the birds ground game, which churned out three more touchdowns, ending the affair on a 21-0 run. When it was all said and done, Sirianni’s troops outgained their division rival 459-350 in total yards, including 229-99 on the ground, scoring a staggering SEVEN rushing touchdowns on the afternoon. Barkley and Hurts scored THREE apiece, with sprinting SIXTY yards to paydirt on the first play of their opening possession. The rushing champion needed just fifteen carries to amass 118 yards and that trifecta of TDs, while Hurts looked healthy after suffering an apparent knee injury a week prior, completing an efficient 20-of-28 passes for 246 yards and a short scoring strike to (Pro-Bowl Wideout) A.J. Brown. Credit to Fangio, whose defense really got after one of the most efficient offenses in the league, rattling (Offensive Rookie of the Year) Jayden Daniels, who up to that point had been all but unflappable in this, his first playoff run. Philly sacked the rookie three times and pressured him on occasions, while forcing a grand total of FOUR turnovers on the day, including THREE recovered fumbles and an interception courtesy of Mitchell. (Emerging Linebacker) Zach Baun, who has THRIVED within Fangio’s scheme, led the team with a dozen tackles, including a disparate forced fumble and recovery in the second half. So often we see takeaways turn the tide of these contests, with these birds proving that train of thought with a staggering +10 margin through the playoffs thus far. Interestingly, Fangio was brought in during the buildup to Super Bowl LVII as a consultant for the Eagles’ defense in lieu of facing Mahomes & Co due his experience facing them twice a season as the Broncos head coach (2019-2021), prior to becoming Phill’s DC little over a year later.
From a betting perspective, the Eagles return to their second Super Bowl in three years at a stellar 14-3 straight-up, while proving to be a profitable play against the spread (11-6), parlaying to a net return of 4.0 units. This is a team that overcame a fairly uneven showing in the first half of the season (4-4 ATS), only to turn around and cover NINE of their last twelve contests, including that NFC Title Game triumph over the Commanders (-6). Under the direction of Sirianni, this is a franchise that is a middling 37-36-3 versus the spread since he arrived in the City of Brotherly Love back in 2021, including 7-8 ATS when receiving points from the oddsmakers, 13-15 ATS against an opponent harboring revenge, 23-17 ATS when coming off a SU victory, and 30-20 ATS versus all opposition residing within the NFC East. Keep an eye on that spread, folks, for these birds have been a perfect play this season as an underdog, covering each of their three tilts when receiving points. As for Hurts, he is now 9-11 ATS when getting points from the oddsmakers, 26-23 ATS following a SU win, 25-16 ATS following back-to-back SU victories, and 10-13 ATS versus division adversaries, with by far and away his worst role coming against a team harboring revenge against his team (9-24 ATS). All-time, Philadelphia is now 28-26 SU in the playoffs, including 1-3 in Super Bowls, with their lone triumph coming back in Super Bowl LII, a thrilling 41-33 affair against the Patriots, which was the highest-scoring contest in the history of the spectacle. While we already covered their most recent showing on this stage, it is worth noting that they did enact a measure of vengeance against the Chiefs last season, earning a narrow 21-17 win in a late November primetime clash at Arrowhead. Sirianni & Co returned the favor by rallying back from a 17-7 halftime deficit, shutting out the reigning champs post-intermission forcing four punts, a key fumble from their own 10-yard line at the beginning of the final stanza, before eventually turning them away on downs on the final drive to end the night. Despite being outgained 336-238 in total yards, outrushed 168-114, converting just 3-of-11 third downs, and possessing the ball for 27:59 of game time, Philly bended without breaking on defense, while string together a pair of long touchdown drives in the second half to take the lead. It was certainly a mixed bag for Hurts, who connected on 14-of-22 throws for just 150 yards and an interception, while suffering five sacks and eleven pressures, though breached the end zone twice rushing, with a deep 41-yard strike to (veteran Wideout) DeVonta Smith down the right hashmark set up his go-ahead rushing score late in the fourth period. Smith hauled in six receptions on eight targets for ninety-nine yards, while (former Tailback) D’Andre Swift amassed 107 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown on fifteen touches. Getting back to Hurts, the 2-time Pro-Bowler is now 5-3 in his playoff career, completing 65.8% of his passes for an average of 199.0 yards on 6.26 net yards per attempt, with eight touchdowns opposed to just a pair of interceptions, while rushing for another 38.6 yards and nine more scores along with one very costly lost fumble (see Super Bowl LVII). Speaking of that previous loss to Kansas City, he turned in a stellar performance in defeat, hitting on 27-of-38 throws for 304 yards and a passing touchdown, while rushing for seventy yards and three more scores to boot. The public seem to be keen on the birds getting revenge, folks, as approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon the spread are sporting midnight green, with an even greater share of the total sum of money wagered thus far (72%) following suit. On the injury front, keep an eye on (Offensive Linemen) Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens, who each missed half of their win over the Commanders. Despite dealing with a visibly ailing knee, Dickerson took over duties at Center in place of Jurgens, who surprisingly returned in the second half to spell the Guard. An extra week off should do both linemen a world of good, as Sirianni would prefer to be at full strength in the trenches for this rematch with the Chiefs. If the Eagles manage to get sweet revenge this evening, then they will have secured their second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history, becoming the sixteenth team to win multiple Super Bowls and the fourth to do so within the NFC East.