9:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Warriors -6.5, Total: 233.0
In the wake of a seismic Trade Deadline whose shockwaves were felt across the NBA, a pair of teams who hope to be better suited to advance to the playoffs clash tonight in North Texas, as the Golden State Warriors battle the Dallas Mavericks under the bright the lights of American Airlines Center. In hindsight, it was clear that the Warriors (27-26, 10th in Western Conference) absolutely needed to make a deal before last week’s deadline, for after a stellar 12-3 start to the campaign have since fallen further behind their competition out West; Golden State are a meager 15-23 since November 23rd, leaving them once again clinging to life in the play-in field at tenth in the standings. While the Dubs have managed to reinvent themselves in the past, this current transformation has been polarizing to say the least, as (longtime Head Coach) Steve Kerr and (General Manager) Mike Dunleavy engaged in a blockbuster 5-time trade alongside the Heat, Raptors, Pistons, and Jazz netting a return headlined by (veteran Swingman) Jimmy Butler. Indeed, changing teams has been nothing new for the 5-time All-NBA selection, who spearheaded two different runs to the NBA Finals during his 6-year tenure in Miami. A physical, two-way menace that should alleviate some of the offensive load from the shoulders of (2-time MVP) Steph Curry, particularly in the halfcourt, Butler (pictured below) should relish the opportunity to play within a championship culture. After all, the 6-time All-Star made it clear that he wanted out of South Beach due in large part to icy negotiations over a new contract, leading to a war of words between he and his former employers, who suspended him on two separate occasions for conduct detrimental to the team. As it turned out, immediately after the completion of his move to San Francisco, Butler put to pen to paper on a new 2-year, $113 million contract extension. It will be interesting to see how impactful this move proves to be for the Warriors in the short term and long term. Golden State has won each of their two games with Butler in rather comfortable fashion, hammering the Bulls (132-111) and Bucks (125-111) on the tail end of this recent road trip; Kerr’s troops have shot 47.0% from the field in these contests, including 34.4% from beyond the arc, while pummeling Chicago and Milwaukee on the glass (+24) and forcing THIRTY-SEVEN turnovers. For his efforts, Butler has averaged 22.5 points with his new team on 45.8% shooting overall, with 5.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 2.5 steals thus far. However, from a longer view, this move to secure Butler’s services makes the Dubs much older and more expensive. The 35-year-old joins a nucleus consisting of the aforementioned Curry (36), Draymond Green (34), and Buddy Hield (32), meaning that their window to compete is much tighter than it has been during this era of success.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into tonight’s penultimate tilt before the All-Star Break at 27-26 straight-up, though have been far less profitable against the spread (18-20), parlaying to a net loss of 3.64 units. This is a team that has covered seven of their last eleven outings though, including each of the last two victories with Butler in the lineup. Golden State is 5-5 ATS over their last ten contests away from Chase Center, while covering four of their last five games when favored by the oddsmakers, which is the case tonight. It will be interesting to see how they matchup with the Mavericks tonight, particularly when you consider that they are 3-7 ATS in both their last ten meetings overall along with their past ten trips to American Airlines Center. These two sides have split their previous two meetings on the campaign, with Kerr’s charges taking the first, a highly entertaining 120-117 victory in which Curry led the hosts on a late rally scoring each of their final twelve points, including a vintage dagger from downtown followed by a pair of clutch free-throws. The sharpshooter was dominant in scoring thirty-seven points on 14-of-27 shooting (51.9%), including 5-of-12 from three (41.7%), with six boards and nine assists. Unfortunately, the latter encounter proved to be a different story as the Dubs found themselves on the wrong end of a 144-133 shootout. 20+ points from four different players and a staggering 27-of-54 from beyond the arc (50.0%) simply wasn’t enough to overcome a dismal defensive effort which saw the home side ship a season-high 59.8% shooting to the Mavs. Curry totaled twenty-six points on 9-of-19 shooting (47.4%) and 7-of-13 from deep (53.8%), five rebounds, and ten assists, with (former Swingman) Aaron Wiggens (who departed in the Butler trade) leading the team with twenty-nine points. On the injury front, Kerr has a largely healthy team on his hands with the exception of (young Forward) Jonathan Kuminga, who has been sidelined since early January with a high ankle sprain. The athletic 22-year-old has continued his ascent from last season, averaging a career-high 16.6 points on 45.9% shooting from the field and an improved 34.5% from three, while logging 5.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 0.9 steals in this, his fourth season since being selected seventh overall in the 2021 NBA Draft. Looking ahead, the Warriors hope to get Kuminga back after the All-Star Break, though they’ll have one test before enjoying a week off, facing the Houston Rockets tomorrow night, sitting six full games behind them in the standings.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks (28-26, 8th in Western Conference) were one half of the biggest move at the Trade Deadline, shipping out (reigning Scoring Champion) Luka Doncic in a blockbuster deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, returning (perennial All-Star) Anthony Davis among other pieces. Indeed, this trade shook the entire sporting world, as Dallas essentially traded the face of their franchise, and potentially the league as a whole, to a direct rival in a blindsiding deal that literally nobody saw coming, including nearly all of the components of the deal. If you were unaware of who (General Manager) Nico Harrison was prior to the deal, then we’d wager that you’ve become familiar now; the 52-year-old had done a tremendous job of building this roster into a championship contender, particularly after advancing to their first NBA Finals since 2011, though nonetheless felt the need to shake things up by jettisoning Doncic from the organization. While many claimed that the GM went rogue, Harrison rationalized his decision due to the Slovenian’s ongoing conditioning concerns and how that relates what would be an inevitable supermax extension that would cost the club well over $345 million. However, even with that in mind, one must question the wisdom in trading a 25-year-old offensive hub who has been an All-NBA selection in each of the last five years and coming off a career campaign in which he averaged 33.9 points per game, 9.2 rebounds, and 9.8 assists en route to reaching the Finals in exchange for a package headlined by an aging 31-year-old big man, who has been an injury risk throughout his decorated career. Harrison cited that he believes championships are “won on the defensive end of the court”, envisioning a more balanced lineup that makes them better suited to capturing that elusive O’Brien Trophy, but again, how much will they lose on the offensive end without one of the true maestros of the sport? Don’t get us wrong, Davis (pictured below) is a 9-time All-Star, a 5-time All-NBA selection, and a 5-time All-Defense choice as well along with an NBA champion (2091-2020) but has missed at least twenty games in all but one of the last six seasons, which is relevant given his current status. Needless to say, the fans caught the entire AD experience in his debut with the Mavericks, with the big fella posting twenty-six points on 10-of-18 shooting (55.6%), even 2-of-2 from three, sixteen rebounds, seven assists, and three blocks en route to securing a 116-105 victory over the Rockets, though he unfortunately suffered a strained groin that will reportedly keep him out of action until after the All-Star Break. It’s going to be an interesting next three months in Dallas, folks….
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks enter their penultimate game before the break at 28-26 straight-up, though have also been less-rewarding against the spread (19-20), equating to a net loss of 2.73 units. This is a team that is currently in the midst of one of their most successful stretches of the campaign in that latter regard, covering each of their last four outings, three of which have come as an underdog. Dallas is 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games overall, while covering four of their past five contests at American Airlines Center. (Head Coach) Jason Kidd’s troops have also more than held their own against the Warriors, covering seven of their last ten meetings regardless of the venue. As we touched upon earlier, these teams split their previous two encounters from earlier in the season, which were of course emotional affairs for (veteran Swingman) Klay Thompson. Of course, we all know the story with the sharpshooter who was one half of the Splash Bros alongside the aforementioned Curry, forming a devastating tandem that helped lead Golden State to FOUR championships between 2015 and 2022. A series of injuries cost the 5-time All-Star two whole seasons of his career, which eventually led to him parting ways with the franchise that selected him eleventh overall in the 2011 NBA Draft. In that 120-117 encounter at Chase Center, Thompson scored twenty-two points on 7-of-17 shooting (41.2%), including 6-of-12 from three (50.0%), only to respond with twenty-nine points on 7-of-11 treys (63.6%) in mid-December’s 144-133 shootout. On the injury front, we already covered the situation with Davis, though there figures to be plenty of absences along the frontcourt for Kidd, who will be without (Centers) Daniel Gafford (knee) and Dereck Lively II (ankle) along with (Forwards) Dwight Powell (hip) and P.J. Washington (ankle), leaving the rotation dangerously thin in this visit from the Dubs. Of that group, Gafford is the most likely to participate tonight, as he is listed as day-to-day, though it remains to be seen if Kidd will risk him at this point. Looking ahead, the Mavericks will host the Heat before enjoying the respite that is the All-Star Break, before kicking off the second half of the campaign with a visit from the Pelicans on February 21st.