9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Houston -1.5, Total: 132.5
With the NCAA Tournament just three weeks away, there is still plenty to be decided across the nation, including the BIG XII where the (No. 5) Houston Cougars look to avenge their only loss in conference play in this trip to Lubbock to battle the (No. 9) Texas Tech Red Raiders. Leading their counterpart by three games in the league table, Houston (23-4, 15-1 in BIG XII) has an opportunity to clinch their second consecutive (regular season) conference title since making the transition from the AAC last season. (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson’s troops once again look like one of the few teams in line to land a one seed in the big dance, with designs on finally breaking through; the Cougars have become regulars in the tourney since the 69-year-old arrived back in 2014, with six appearances over the last seven years, including five trips to the Sweet Sixteen and a Final Four appearance in 2021, their first since the days of Phi Slama Jama in the early 1980s. However, they have been felled in the regional semifinal in each of the last two seasons, which was earlier than projected by many, serving as a reflection as to how the expectations have evolved under the direction of Sampson. So, with that in mind, are these cats better suited for a prolonged tourney run than their predecessors? Winners of nineteen of their last twenty contests, Houston possesses many of the hallmarks of a championship contender. First and foremost, this is one of the most experienced teams in the country, with the bulk of their rotation comprised of seven juniors and seniors, led by (Senior Guard) L.J. Cryer, who leads the group in scoring (15.0) and the conference in three-point percentage (41.9%). Alongside fellow junior, Emanuel Sharp, this is a strong, veteran backcourt that provides the necessary spacing for their teammates to operate within the arc, while also applying pressure on the defensive end of the hardwood. Speaking of defense, this continues to be the calling card for these Cougars, who have relinquished the fewest points in the nation, shipping a mere 57.7 points per game. During their current 6-game win streak, the opposite has been relegated to just 61.5 points on 44.4% shooting from the field, while being outrebounded by 8.9 boards with nearly as many turnovers (11.7) as assists (12.7). This was the case in Saturday’s 68-59 triumph over (No. 8) Iowa State, which saw Sampson’s troops limit the Cyclones to a mere 39.1% shooting, including just 10-of-26 shooting from within the arc (38.5%), win the battle of the boards (28-19), and permit thirteen assists in comparison to forcing a dozen turnovers. Granted, the hosts didn’t take great care of the ball themselves by any means, turning it over fourteen times opposed to dishing out a mere six assists, but they made up for it with a sweet shooting touch, netting 53.2% of their attempts overall. Cryer (pictured below) turned in one of the strongest performances of his collegiate career, scoring twenty-eight points on 11-of-17 shooting (64.7%), including 5-of-7 from three (71.4%).
From a betting perspective, Houston is a middling 7-6 against the spread over their last thirteen outings, parlaying to a recent net profit of 0.36 units. The Cougars were favored by a sizable 11.5 points in last weekend’s tilt with the Cyclones, though ultimately failed to cover despite leading by as many sixteen points, snapping a streak of three straight ATS victories. Sampson & Co are 6-4 ATS in their last ten trips away from Fertitta Center, 5-5 ATS over their past ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers, and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Monday night affairs. All-time, this is a program that is 31-28 SU against Texas Tech, with three wins in four matchups over the past five seasons, and 3-1 ATS in those outings. Of course, the most recent crossing of paths between these denizens of the lone star state was nothing short of eventful; Houston rallied back after a 41-37 halftime deficit to push the game to overtime, though ultimately ran out of gas in the 82-81 thriller. The defeat snapped a 33-game home win streak that been in place since January 22nd, 2023, while also ending an 18-game streak of success in conference play. Despite holding the Red Raiders well below their shooting standard, the hosts were at deficit from beyond the arc (-21) and from the charity stripe (-6), though compensated for it by dominating the paint (+24). Cryer led the team with twenty-two points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), though it was (Senior Forward) J’Wan Roberts who had an opportunity to be the hero; after his attempt to seal the deal in regulation was blocked, Roberts was whistled for a travel after his side lost the lead in OT, only to steal the ball back on the ensuing possession with his heave from halfcourt falling short. The native of the Virgin Islands ended the night with eighteen points on 6-of-15 shooting (40.0%), seven assists, three steals, and three blocks, but committed a team-high five turnovers to boot. Looking ahead, Houston will play host to Cincinnati and (No. 23) Kansas before closing out the regular season with their annual trip to Waco to battle Baylor, whom they bested in a 76-65 affair two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, if Texas Tech (21-6, 12-4 in BIG XII) is going to win their first conference championship since the 2018-2019 campaign, then they’re going to have pull off a season sweep against Houston, which would close the gap between the two programs to just a pair of games with three left to play on the schedule. While that may seem like a tough task, it may be an unlikely one for these Red Raiders, who have beaten just one ranked opponent this season (1-3), which was coincidentally the Cougars. Now in his second season in Lubbock, (Head Coach) Grant McCasland has done a solid job of lifting a program out of the controversy caused by his predecessor, Mark Adams, who after leading the Raiders to a Sweet Sixteen appearance in his first year on the job, was effectively forced to resign following a 16-15 run marred by accusations of using racially insensitive terms and allegedly spitting on a player, leading directly to suspension. McCasland, after a successful 6-year stint at North Texas consisting of two Conference USA championships and a trip to the 2021 NCAA Tournament, immediately resuscitated TT, finishing with a 23-11 record and a tourney berth. With that foundation in place, he and his troops have continued to develop into contenders within the BIG XII largely off his exploits in the transfer portal; (Senior Guard) Chance McMillian and (Junior Forward) Darrion Williams arrived alongside McCasland via transfer from Grand Canyon and Nevada respectively, while (Sophomore Forward) J.T. Toppin made the transition from New Mexico in the Spring. This blend of youth and experience has struck a chord in Lubbock, as Toppin (pictured below) leads the group in points (17.3), rebounds (9.1), and blocks (1.2), while McMillian isn’t far behind with 15.7 points and a blistering 45.4% shooting from beyond the arc. After suffering a narrow 69-66 loss at TCU last Monday night, Texas Tech bounced back at home with a 71-53 drubbing of West Virginia over the weekend, a one-sided affair in which the hosts outscored their opponent 43-24 in the second half. McCasland must have been delighted to see the effort that his troops put in on the defensive end of the court, where they held the Mountaineers to a scant 32.8% shooting from the field, including a dreadful 6-of-27 from downtown (22.2%), while battering them on the glass (41-31). Conversely, the Red Raiders shot 46.4% overall, including 17-of-34 on two-pointers (50.0%) and 9-of-22 on threes (40.9%), while owning a 32-22 advantage in the paint, which is where Toppin feasted scoring fourteen of his game-high twenty-two points. (Freshman Guard) Christian Anderson caught fire from the perimeter, netting 5-of-8 shots from deep (62.5%), leading to a career-high twenty-one points.
From a betting perspective, Texas Tech is 6-5 against the spread over their last eleven outings, parlaying to a net profit of just 0.45 units. However, this is a team that covered just two of their last five outings overall, though they did manage to beat the spread in comfortable fashion in that aforementioned romp over West Virginia (-9.5). The Red Raiders are 5-5 ATS in their last ten games contested at United Supermarkets Arena, while going 4-5-1 versus the spread over their past ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers. As we touched upon earlier, they have had a tough run against Houston since their arrival in the BIG XII, though managed to turn the tide with that aforementioned 82-81 classic back on February 1st. This one was a tightly contested affair, folks, as neither team managed to amass a lead of more than seven points. The visiting Raiders led 41-37 at halftime, though fell behind after a furious Cougars rally in the second half, only for Williams to save them with a leveling dagger from downtown with thirty seconds left to play in regulation followed by a clutch block courtesy of (Senior Center) Federiko Federiko as time expired. From there, the two sides grinded away at each other in overtime until McMillian drew a foul with fourteen seconds left to play, netting both singles to move back in front for good. When it was all said and done, the visitors pulled this upset due to their prowess from beyond the arc (12-of-30) and from the charity stripe (24-of-34), which led to an overall +27 advantage over the home side. McMillian led the way with twenty-three points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), along with five rebounds and a pair of steals, while Williams (13 points) alongside (Senior Guards) Elijah Hawkins (17 points) and Kerwin Walton (14 points), made up for the absence of Toppin, who was ejected early on due to a controversial flagrant-2 called when he appeared to kick an opponent in the midsection while the motion of a jump shot. Livid after the officials’ decision, McCasland was sent to the locker room not long afterward. Looking ahead, Texas Tech will travel to Lawrence for a date with (No. 23) Kansas this weekend, before returning to Lubbock for Senior Night against Colorado followed by a trip to Tempe for the season finale versus Arizona State.