9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 – Spread: Alabama -8.5, Total: 173.5
As the regular season winds down and the madness of March approaches, there is still plenty to be decided across the country, particularly in the Southeast Conference where the (No. 21) Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the (No. 4) Alabama Crimson Tide from Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa. In coaching on the collegiate level, success is often defined by progression, which is most cases follows a linear path from one season to the next, which is the case for (Head Coach) Chris Jans, who is now in his third year at Mississippi State (19-8, 7-7 in SEC). After making the transition from New Mexico State, the 3-time WAC Coach of the Year immediately positioned made an impression in Starkville, where he took a program that had qualified for the NCAA Tournament just once in the previous thirteen seasons before his arrival, dancing after his first year on the job. Indeed, after participating in the First Four, Jans then guided the Bulldogs into the First Round a year later, only to peak at No. 14 in the AP Poll this season, matching their highest ranking since the 2004-2005 campaign. So, what do we make of these dogs, you ask? Well, with nine teams currently ranked within the AP Top-25, the SEC has proven to be the strongest conference in the country, they have certainly handled themselves admirably with victories over the likes of (No. 7) Texas A&M and (No. 24) Ole Miss (twice), while all but two of their defeats coming at the hands of ranked league adversaries. Jans has done a stellar job of building this roster through traditional recruiting and via the Transfer Portal; (Sophomore Guard) Josh Hubbard and (Junior Forward) KeShawn Murphy have formed a powerful 1-2 punch, combining for 29.3 points per game with the former netting 36.0% of his triples, while the latter leads the team in both rebounds (7.5) and blocks (1.2). Hubbard (pictured below) was the driving force in their upset of the Aggies from last Tuesday, pouring in twenty-five points on 6-of-10 shooting (60.0%), including 3-of-6 from downtown (50.0%), with four assists and steals apiece. While they weren’t particularly sharp as a team from the field (43.1%), Mississippi State absolutely OWNED A&M on the defensive end, relegating the visitors to a miserable 35.8% shooting, including 11-of-30 from within the arc (36.7%), permitting ten assists and forcing NINETEEN turnovers, which the hosts manufactured into twenty-two points (+13). Unfortunately, that success would be short-lived in last weekend’s venture to Norman, where Oklahoma bested them in a 93-87 affair. That defensive solidity completely dissolved as the Sooners trampled the visiting side to the tune of 52.7% shooting, including 18-of-29 on two-pointers (62.1%), and eighteen dimes opposed to just nine turnovers. As for Jans’ troops, they struggled on 39.7% shooting, though did manage to stay in the contest thanks to their prowess on the offensive glass (19). Hubbard and Murphy accounted for thirty-five of their team’s scoring ledger, though simply couldn’t keep the hosts off the charity stripe, shipping twenty-four free-throws on thirty-four attempts.
From a betting perspective, Mississippi State may be 19-8 straight-up thus far, but they have been far less rewarding against the spread (8-15-4), including a dreadful 3-9 in that regard over their last dozen games. The Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS in their past ten trips away from Starkville, while covering just four of their last ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a program that is 51-94 SU against Alabama, with just one victory in their last ten meetings, a narrow 78-76 triumph back in 2022. Jans’ outfit has dropped six in row in this series, including their previous tilt from earlier this season, a tightly contested 88-84 affair at Humphrey Coliseum back on January 29th. This one was a shootout, folks, as both teams shot over 49.0% from the field, though the two sides would go about in different ways; while the visitors bombed away from the perimeter, MSU pummeled them in the paint (40-24), while doing better than doubling them up in fast break points (13-6). Hubbard erupted for a career high THIRTY-EIGHT points on 14-of-28 shooting (50.0%) and 6-of-15 from three (40.0%), while Murphy had his way in the paint with eighteen points of his own on an efficient 8-of-13 shooting (61.5%), with six rebounds, a steal, and a block. In the end, it wouldn’t be enough as the hosts simply couldn’t stop the bleeding from beyond the arc, where the Crimson Tide netted 15-of-31 attempts (48.4%), leading to a disparity of -21 points on that front, which ultimately proved to be the difference. Looking ahead, the remaining schedule lightens up considerably for Mississippi State, who after battling ten ranked foes in their last thirteen games, will close out the regular season against unranked opposite such as LSU, Texas, and Arkansas prior to learning their fate in the looming SEC Tournament.
Meanwhile, after dropping back-to-back games for the first time this season, Alabama (22-5, 11-3 in SEC) returned to winning ways with last weekend’s 96-83 thumping of (No. 17) Kentucky, completing a season sweep of the Wildcats in the process. Despite trailing by as much as a dozen points in the first half, the Crimson Tide would turn the tables thanks in large part to their dynamic offense, which remains the most prolific in the nation. Under the direction of (Head Coach) Nate Oats, this has been one of the most high-powered units in the sport, ranking in the top-10 in points per game four times during his six seasons in Tuscaloosa, including first in each of the last two campaigns. This year, the Tide are averaging a robust 90.8 points (1st Overall) on 48.4% shooting from the field (30th Overall), including 60.8% from within the arc (2nd Overall) and 34.2% beyond it (162nd Overall), while getting to the charity stripe with aplomb at 19.1 free-throws per contest (5th Overall), and dishing out assists along the way (32nd Overall). This was all on display in that win over the ‘Cats, as Oats’ troops shot a blistering 52.5% from the floor, including an efficient 21-of-30 on two-point field goals (70.0%), while settling in nicely at the stripe where they knocked down 21-of-25 free-throws (84.0%). However, the biggest difference in this one, folks, was how Alabama managed to maximize their adversary’s mistakes, manufacturing thirteen turnovers into TWENTY-FOUR points, leading to a +13 advantage. (Senior Guard) Mark Sears exploded for THIRTY points on 8-of-17 shooting (47.1%), with a perfect 11-of-11 from the line (100.0%), though he had plenty of help with three of his teammates also reaching double-figures in points, including (Sophomore Guard) Aden Holloway (19 points), (Senior Guard) Chris Youngblood (14 points), and (Senior Center) Clifford Omoruyi (11 points). Unlike their opponent tonight, this is a team that has largely been constructed through the Transfer Portal, with Oats signing a wealth of free agents over the past few seasons. Five of his top-7 players in the rotation have come to Tuscaloosa from other programs, including Sears (pictured below), (Senior Forward) Grant Nelson, Youngblood, Omoruyi, and Holloway who previously lied their trades at Ohio, North Dakota State, South Florida, Rutgers, and even Auburn respectively.
From a betting perspective, Alabama comes into this battle with the Bulldogs at 22-5 straight-up and have been far more rewarding against the spread (13-10-4) than their opponent, with four covers in their last eight outings. This is a team that is 6-4 ATS in their past ten games at Coleman Coliseum, while matching that ledger in their last ten contests when favored by the oddsmakers. As we covered earlier, the Crimson Tide have OWNED this rivalry with Mississippi State for a while now, winning nine of their last ten encounters, including each of the last six affairs. When they crossed paths earlier this season, a competitive 88-84 victory in Starkville, Oats & Co relied upon their shooting from the perimeter to get the job done, knocking down 15-of-31 treys (48.4%), where they outscored the hosts by a decisive TWENTY-ONE points. Three different members of the Tide netted at least three triples, with the aforementioned Youngblood making the biggest impact with a staggering SEVEN threes on ten shots (70.0%), including a late dagger and a pair of clutch free-throws in the waning moments to seal the deal. Youngblood’s twenty-three points were his most since transferring to Alabama, while Sears and Nelson added seventeen and fifteen respectively, though the former committed an untenable SEVEN turnovers, accounting for exactly half of his side’s total. Turnovers have been the primary weakness for ‘Bama, who can get a wild and loose with the basketball given the pace that they play at, as they commit an average of 13.3 turnovers per game (61st Overall) and are a perfect 5-0 when they commit fewer turnovers than their opponent. Looking ahead, the gauntlet continues for the Crimson Tide, who are currently in the midst of seven consecutive games against ranked opposition, with the remainder of their schedule consisting of (No. 6) Tennessee, (No. 2) Florida, and (No. 1) Auburn to close out the campaign.