6:30 PM EST, BIG 10 Network – Spread: Michigan State -3.5, Total: 151.5
The races for conference glory reach their final stages as March Madness looms on the horizon, particularly in the BIG 10 where the league-leading (No. 8) Michigan State Spartans look to fend off one of their chief competitors, the (No. 16) Maryland Terrapins, in this clash from XFINITY Center in College Park. After four straight seasons of relatively subpar finishes, certainly by their standards, Michigan State (22-5, 13-3 in BIG 10) is back to looking like a national powerhouse, with their current win percentage (.813) the highest that program has seen at this stage of the campaign since 2018-2019. Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, the Spartans not only earned a share of the BIG 10 regular season title, but went on to win the conference tournament, before advancing all the way to the Final Four, the eighth under the leadership of (longtime Head Coach) Tom Izzo. Now in his THIRTIETH season in East Lansing, Izzo (pictured below) has seen it all done it all during his three decades with the program; the 70-year-old is 729-300 (.708) since he took over back in 1995, winning ten BIG 10 titles and six conference tourneys, with a whopping TWENTY-SIX appearances in the NCAA Tournament, including a National Championship back in 2000. In this post-COVID ear of college hoops in which many of the legendary coaches that have defined the sport for decades have decided to call it a career, it is refreshing to see Izzo reinvent himself in pursuit of sustained success. So, what is different about these Spartans, you ask? Well, the thing that immediately stands out about this incarnation of Michigan State is their depth, with the rotation, a mix of youth and experience, consisting of ten different players logging at least 15.0 minutes per game. The workload has been evenly distributed to the point that only two players have averaged double figures in points, led by (Senior Guard) Jaden Akins (13.0), with six more posting over 7.0 points per contest. Going hand in hand with that notion of sharing the rock is the fact that they lead their league in assists (17.4), while also getting to the charity stripe with ease, pacing the BIG 10 in both free-throws made (17.6) and attempted (22.0). Furthermore, this group defends both individually and as a team. Sparty has relinquished the fewest points in conference play thus far (66.7) on a mere 40.4% shooting from the field (1st in BIG 10), including 27.8% from beyond the arc (1st in BIG 10), along with 4.5 blocks (1st in BIG 10). With Izzo pulling the strings, you know they compete on the glass too, which comes as no surprise to those who have followed this program since the turn of the century. MSU has outrebounded their fellow conference brethren by a margin of 8.3 boards, with their opposition collecting the fewest defensive rebounds against them (18.4). These traits were on full display in last weekend’s crucial 75-62 victory over (No. 15) Michigan, whom they earned the tiebreaker against for the conference lead with just a few weeks left to go. Izzo’s troops simply outworked the Wolverines in this one, particularly in the second half where they outscored the home side 41-24. The visitors won the battle of the boards 31-24 largely on the strength of a dozen offensive rebounds, leading to eleven more shot attempts. Four different players reached double figures in scoring, led by (Freshman Guard) Jase Richardson, who erupted for twenty-one points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), six rebounds, and three steals.
From a betting perspective, Michigan State comes into this venture in College Park at 22-5 straight-up but have also been one of the most rewarding sides in the country against the spread (16-5-1), including 11-5-1 ATS over their last seventeen games, parlaying to a net profit of 5.0 units. This is a team that has been lock and step over their last three outings, winning and covering each of them, including that aforementioned romp over their neighbors from Ann Arbor. The Spartans have absolutely OWNED this series of late, winning six consecutive encounters with the Terrapins, though it should be noted that most of these affairs have been rather close, with all but one of them decided by single digits, including each of the last four meetings. Izzo & Co triumphed in each of their two tilts from last season, the first being a narrow 61-59 win at XFINITY Center, before earning a 63-54 decision two weeks later in the return leg from East Lansing. In the former contest, the visitors nearly blew what had appeared to be a commanding 44-32 edge at halftime, surviving off of their relentless on-ball pressure, forcing seventeen turnovers to create some easier opportunities in transition in what was otherwise a stereotypical slog of a game. In the latter affair, the hosts fed off the crowd at Breslin Center in smothering Maryland on the defensive end, shipping a scant 30.9% shooting overall, with more turnovers (13) than assists (8). Looking ahead, Michigan State will continue this gauntlet of ranked opponents with a visit from (No. 11) Wisconsin this weekend, before hitting the road one more time to battle Iowa, followed by a rematch with the Wolverines on Senior Day, no less, which could very likely decide who will be claiming the BIG 10 Title.
Meanwhile, Maryland (21-6, 11-5 in BIG 10) is also enjoying a resurgence this season, as the seeds planted by (Head Coach) Kevin Willard are now bearing fruit in this, his third season in College Park. Needless to say, since moving to the BIG 10 ten years ago, the Terrapins have NOT enjoyed the success that they did during their lengthy stay in the ACC, struggling to find their footing in a bloated league that continued to inflate this past Spring with the addition of four new west coast-based schools. Apart from an Elite Eight appearance back in 2016 and reaching the top-10 of the AP Poll on a few occasions between 2015 and 2020, the past decade has seen more downs than ups, while filling the school’s coffers without much success on the hardwood. So, with that in mind, the Terps tabbed Willard (pictured below) to reinvent the program in 2022, with the 49-year-old keen on making the leap to a bigger school after spending the previous six years at Seton Hall, where he led the Pirates to a six NCAA Tournaments over a span of seven years. Willard would have an immediate impact on Maryland, leading them to the second round of the tourney in his first season on the sidelines, though definitely took a few steps backward with last year’s disappointing 16-17 finish, their second losing campaign in three seasons. However, his work on the recruiting trail is paying off in year three, with the Terrapins growing into their strongest team in years. So, what has changed in College Park, you ask? Well, the growth of their young talent has been more than evident, as a number higher-profile recruits have emerged this winter, none more so than (Freshman Center) Derik Queen, the no. 14 recruit in the country, who has posted 15.9 points on 54.9% shooting, 9.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block thus far. The 6’10” Baltimore native has grown into a force within the paint of late, keying this current 4-game win streak with 21.0 points per contest on an efficient 64.4% shooting, 14.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists along the way. With four straight double-doubles, Queen has become the central figure for an attack that become one of the most prolific in the country, averaging 90.5 points on 52.4% shooting from the field, including 42.0% from beyond the arc. This was the case with last weekend’s 88-71 blowout of USC, which saw them drop fifty-one points in the second half alone. All five starters scored in double figures, led by (Sophomore Guard) Rodney Rice and (Junior Guard) Ja’Kobi Gillespi, who arrived via transfer from Virginia Tech and Belmont respectively, scoring a combined forty-two points on 13-of-24 shooting (54.1%), including 7-of-14 from three (50.0%). The Terps also dominated the glass (40-24) due in large to the exploits of Queen, who totaled seventeen boards. With a win tonight, Willard & Co will have bested their fourth ranked adversary of the campaign, which has been a major turnaround from losing their first three such matchups.
From a betting perspective, Maryland is 21-6 straight-up thus far, though haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread (10-9-8), including 7-5-1 ATS over their last thirteen contests, parlaying to a net profit of 1.36 units. The Terps are unbeaten in that regard in their past four games, though will be looking for their first cover over Michigan State in five attempts, with their last win versus the spread in this series coming as a 3.5-point underdog back in 2022 (63-65). While tonight’s showdown at XFINITY Center is their first meeting of this season, they did cross paths on two occasions last year, both of which ended in defeat for Willard & Co. As has often been the case in this series, the Terrapins lack of offensive firepower has caused their downfall; in those two tilts, the Terps could muster just 56.5 points on a woeful 36.1% shooting from the field, including 28.8% from beyond the arc, while dishing out a meager 8.0 assists in comparison to committing 15.0 turnovers, including seventeen in the first encounter. Simply put, it is difficult to win against any opponent, let alone one the caliber of the Spartans, when your team’s shooting and ball-movement are that poor. Given the growth that they have shown on this side of the court, we have a feeling that this particular matchup will be a welcome change from purely a neutral POV. Looking ahead, the remaining schedule is far more forgiving for Maryland, which is key when you consider that they only trail Michigan State by two games in the BIG 10 standings. After tonight’s conflict, they will travel to Happy Valley and Ann Arbor to battle Penn State and Michigan, before concluding the regular season with a visit from Northwestern on Senior Night.