9:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Auburn -4.5, Total: 151.5
As the calendar transitions to March, we’ve reached the penultimate round of games for most teams, including the SEC, where its newly minted champions, the (No. 1) Auburn Tigers battle the (No. 22) Texas A&M Aggies with both sides looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament. As far as tournament standing goes, barring a spectacular fall from grace, Auburn (27-2, 15-1 in SEC) is a lock to earn the number one overall seed when the seeding is released on Selection Sunday in just over a week’s time. Simply put, the Tigers own the strongest CV of any school expected to participate in the big dance, sitting no lower than second in the AP Poll since early December, while spending each of the eight straight weeks ranked number one overall. The numbers speak for themselves when it comes to War Eagle, who have bested their opponents by an average margin of 16.6 points per game, averaging a robust 85.4 points (4th Overall) on an efficient 48.5% shooting (22nd Overall), all the while posting an impressive 10-2 ledger versus AP-ranked adversaries. How big of a deal is that, you ask? Well, (Head Coach) Bruce Pearl’s troops are only the third school in history to amass at least ten victories over ranked opponents prior to competing in their conference tournament, joining 1992-1993 Indiana (11-2) and 2002-2003 Kentucky (11-1), with an opportunity to eclipse both of those teams given that they conclude this current campaign against the Aggies followed by (No. 7) Alabama this weekend. Now in his eleventh season on the Plains, this very well may be the strongest collection of talent and experience that the 64-year-old has had since he arrived back in 2104, what with a rotation consisting of six seniors who are looking to push the Tigers past the opening weekend of the tourney for the first time since reaching the Final Four back in 2019. At the forefront is (Senior Forward) Johni Broome, who expected to be one of the finalists for National Player of the Year honors. The versatile 6’10”, 235-pounder has the skillset that the NBA scouts drool over, leading the team in points (18.4), rebounds (10.8), assists (3.3), and blocks (2.4), netting an efficient 50.5% of his shots from the field. However, Auburn has proven to be much more than just Broome (pictured below), evidenced by their demolition over (No. 17) Kentucky, in Lexington no less, last weekend. If we had told you prior to the affair that Broome would finish with just nine points in over thirty minutes of action while the visitors as a whole dished out a paltry eight assists, you would probably be surprised to learn that they throttled the Wildcats in a 94-78 romp. Indeed, this catfight was as one-sided as it gets, with War Eagle shooting a blistering 51.8% from the floor, including 12-of-26 from beyond the arc (46.2%), where they outscored the hosts by a commanding TWENTY-FOUR points. The backcourt was the difference in this matchup, as (Seniors) Miles Kelly and Chad Baker-Mazara along with (Freshman) Tahaad Pettiford nearly outscored UK by themselves, combining for SEVENTY-THREE points on 22-of-39 shooting (56.4%), with Kelly making it rain from downtown with NINE treys en route to scoring a season-high thirty points.
From a betting perspective, Auburn come into tonight’s to College Station with a record of 27-2 straight-up, but have also been fairly rewarding against the spread (18-11). This is a team that has covered seven of their last ten outings, including each of the last two, the first being a 12.5-point favorite over Ole Miss (106-76), followed by that aforementioned triumph over Kentucky where they were favored by 4.5 points, which is coincidentally the same spread for tonight’s contest. We covered the Tigers’ impressive body of work against tough competition this season, with that notion translating to their performance in such games versus the spread too; they are riding a 5-game streak of covers on the road against foes with a home win percentage above .600, which is once against the case tonight. Furthermore, Pearl & Co have covered five straight road ventures overall, though haven’t tasted victory at Reed Arena since 2019 (0-2 SUATS). When these schools last crossed paths on the hardwood, it was War Eagle who protected their home floor in a 66-55 affair from last season that was nothing short of a defensive struggle. Both sides shot below 40.0% from the field, but credit the host’s defense in completely frustrating the Aggies, who were held to a dismal 29.0% shooting, including 15-of-43 from within the arc (34.9%) and 3-of-19 beyond it (15.8%). Auburn wasn’t great, but they were more efficient (39.2%), aided by forcing EIGHTEEN turnovers to create easier opportunities in transition, while taking up residence at the charity stripe where they knocked down 21-of-26 free-throws (80.8%). Despite scoring ten points on just 1-of-4 shooting (25.0%), Broome was nothing short of a force around the rim with seven rebounds and four blocks, while routinely drawing fouls to send him to the line where he netted 8-of-10 singles (80.0%). On the injury front, (Senior Guard) Denver Jones, who played just eight minutes in last weekend’s trip to Kentucky due to a tender ankle, is listed as questionable to participate tonight. Looking ahead, the SEC Champions will close out the regular season this weekend with a visit from their bitter rivals, the Crimson Tide, whom they beat 94-85 in Tuscaloosa back in mid-February, before heading into next weekend’s conference tournament as the number one overall seed.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M (20-9, 9-7 in SEC) also have designs on advancing past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for the first time over six years, with their last trip to Sweet Sixteen occurring back in 2018. Now in his sixth season in College Station, (Head Coach) Buzz Williams has done a solid job of rebuilding the Aggies in his image, totaling 20+ wins for a fourth consecutive campaign, with back-to-back ventures in the big dance. This season, A&M peaked at seventh in the AP Poll, which is coincidentally their highest ranking since the 2017-2018 season when they advanced all the way to the Elite Eight under Willaims’ predecessor, Billy Kennedy. As is the case with their opponent tonight, this is an experienced team with plenty of depth at their disposal, what with a rotation that runs ten players deep consisting of EIGHT seniors and a pair of juniors. An experienced backcourt is oftentimes cited as one of the keys to success come March, with the tandem of Zhuric Phelps and Wade Taylor IV (pictured below) fitting the bill, combining for 29.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 3.3 steals per contest. Granted, neither player has been very efficient, shooting below 40.0% overall apiece, but they are adept at creating havoc on the defensive end where their on-ball pressure has kickstarted a wealth of opportunities in transition. This is key for the Aggies, who are NOT the biggest team in the country by any measure, with only one player within the rotation standing taller than 6’7″ and none over 6’9″. This can often lead to matchup issues against bigger opponents when games slow down in the halfcourt, which can prove fatal in the SEC, which now brings us to the current 4-game losing streak that they are mired in. During this stretch of misery, the Aggies have been outscored by a margin of 11.2 points per game, due in large part to their struggles shooting the rock; they’ve netted just 37.8% of their attempts from the field, including 25-of-92 three-pointers (27.2%), where they have been outscored by SIXTY-THREE points, or in other words a margin of 15.7 points per contest. Taking care of the basketball has also become a serious issue, for this is a team that totaled more turnovers (55) than assists (44) within this run, which makes it even more difficult to put the ball through the nylon. This was the case in last weekend’s 89-70 drubbing at the hands of (No. 5) Florida, in which the visitors were relegated to 39.0% shooting, including 5-of-17 from beyond the arc (29.4%), leading to a differential of -18 in that category, while their fifteen turnovers led to sixteen points for the Gators. Furthermore, A&M dished out a season-low THREE assists on the day, which simply is not enough to win in today’s game. That defeat dropped Williams & Co from twelfth in the AP Poll to twenty-second, while serving as their SEVENTEENTH consecutive road defeat against AP top-5 adversaries (1-22 all-time).
From a betting perspective, Texas A&M reaches this penultimate chapter of the regular season with a record of 20-9 straight-up, while barely keeping their heads above water versus the spread (14-13-2). This is a team that has failed to cover any of their last four defeats during this stretch of ineptitude, which has seen them cover the spectrum from being a sizable favorite (-8.5 vs Vanderbilt) to a small favorite (-2.5 vs No. 4 Tennessee) to a small underdog (+2.5 at Mississippi State) to most recently a large dog in that aforementioned blowout in Gainesville (+8.5). Williams’ outfit have NOT been a profitable play when coming off a SU loss, failing to cover each of their last seven such outings (0-6-1 ATS), while riding a streak of four tilts without a cover when facing an opponent owning a win percentage over .600, which is obviously the case here tonight. Interestingly, the Aggies have taken five of the last seven meetings with Auburn, including each of the last two contested in College Station, though the last time that they crossed paths, that previously mentioned 66-55 loss from last season, it was a very different story. Simply put, this was one of the ugliest offensive performances of Williams era, as the visitors shot a dreadful 29.0% from the field, including 15-of-43 from within the arc (34.9%) and 3-of-19 beyond it (15.8%), committing ten more turnovers than they did assists. Taylor has a particularly rough day at the office, scoring eight points on 2-of-16 shooting (12.5%), including 0-of-8 from downtown, logging more personal fouls (3) than field goals (2). Looking ahead, if A&M fails to snap their losing streak tonight at Reed Arena, then one would like their chances to snap out of this persistent malaise with this weekend’s finale at struggling LSU, who are a miserable 14-15 overall and 3-13 in SEC play.