7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 – Spread: Alabama -2.5, Spread: 177.5
Even though the race for the SEC Title has already been decided, there has been a lot of talk about another of their number potentially locking down the fourth and final one seed in the NCAA Tournament, making tonight’s clash from Coleman Coliseum between the (No. 5) Florida Gators and the (No. 7) Alabama Crimson Tide an elimination game in that regard. Ladies and gentlemen, we would like to welcome Florida (25-4, 12-4 in SEC) back to the upper echelon of contenders after spending the better part of the past decade wading through the murky waters of the swamp. Indeed, this is a program that had suffered 10+ losses in nine of the previous ten campaigns, while failing to advance past the first weekend of the big dance in each of the past seven years. Simply put, these reptiles have been a far cry from the all-conquering group that secured back-to-back National Championships under (former Head Coach) Billy Donovan from 2005-2006 to 2006-2007. However, their current steward on the sidelines, (Head Coach) Todd Golden has positioned the Gators for a return to their glory days. After spending three successful seasons at San Francisco, there were many that believed that leap between West Coast Conference and the Southeast Conference was a bridge to far for the 39-year-old, but that couldn’t be further from the truth as Florida is reaping the rewards from such a forward-thinking hire. After going 16-17 in his first year on the job, Golden took the Gators back to the big dance last year on the strength of 24-12 finish, which saw them bow out in the first round. Depth, experience, and size characterize this group, who have become one of the most potent offensive attacks in the country. Golden’s troops have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 16.6 points per game due in large part to ranking ninth overall in scoring (83.8) on a healthy 46.7% shooting from the field (79th Overall), including 55.4% on two-pointers (53rd Overall). Their senior backcourt consisting of Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard is one of the best in the nation, combining for 45.2 points, 12.9 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 4.8 steals. Not only are each of the guys strong on-ball defenders, but they are also lethal from beyond the arc, netting over 36.0% apiece on three-pointers. Of the triumvirate, Clayton (pictured below) is perhaps the most notable, with the Iona transfer leading the team in points (16.9), treys (77), and assists (4.0). With that being said, he struggled mightily despite last weekend’s 89-70 drubbing of (No. 22) Texas A&M, totaling ten points on a disappointing 3-of-13 shooting (23.1%), including 2-of-8 from three (25.0%), with nearly as many turnovers (3) as assists (4). Fortunately, his teammates were more than up to the task, as Richard erupted for twenty-five points on 9-of-13 shooting (69.2%) and 6-of-9 from downtown (66.6%), while Martin and (Sophomore Forward) Thomas Haugh accounted for thirty-one points, six treys, eight rebounds, four assists, and three steaks. Getting back to the sharpshooting Richard, that performance was his fourth game this season with at least twenty-five points and five rebounds, which is joint most in the SEC in 2024-2025.
From a betting perspective, Florida comes into this penultimate chapter of the regular season at 25-4 straight-up, though have been one of the most rewarding schools in the country against the spread (21-8). This is a team that has been on quite an extended run in that latter regard, with seven covers over their last eight contests, with their streak of six consecutive covers coming to an end with last week’s surprising 88-83 loss at Georgia (-6.5). However, being an underdog hasn’t necessarily been kind to these Gators of late, particularly when they’re receiving between 0.5-6.5 points from the oddsmakers, covering just one of their last five such affairs. In terms of tonight’s showdown with Alabama, the host has gone on to win five of the last seven meetings between these programs, though the underdog has managed to cover four of those encounters. Interestingly, their last crossing of paths came in last year’s SEC Tournament, where the reptiles proved to rowdy for the Crimson Tide to handle in a 102-88 shootout in the quarterfinals. Golden’s outfit came out guns blazing in the first half, outscoring their adversary 48-33 over the first twenty minutes of action, en route to shooting 50.8% from the field, including 25-of-43 from within the arc (58.1%). The biggest takeaway from this one was the disparity in physicality, as Florida took up residence from the charity stripe where they netted an industrious 31-of-36 free-throws (86.1%), parlaying to a +15 advantage on that front. Five different players scored in double figures for the Gators, led by Clayton (23 points), including 11-of-11 on free-throws. On the injury front, (Junior Forward) Sam Alexis is likely to miss his sixth straight game due to an undisclosed malady suffered back in a mid-February clash with Mississippi State. Looking ahead, if they can leave Coleman Coliseum with a victory tonight, one would have to like Florida’s chances of securing that final one seed in the big dance, given that they will close out the regular season this weekend with a visit from Ole Miss, who have dropped seven of their last twelve games in conference play.
Meanwhile, Alabama (23-6, 12-4 in SEC) is in virtually the same position as their opponent tonight, sitting level in conference play and looking snare that final one seed come Selection Sunday. However, unlike the rowdy reptiles, who have been in ascension following a dormant period of success, the Crimson Tide have been a known commodity for a handful of years now. Since (Head Coach) Nate Oats arrived via Buffalo back in 2019, his has overseen a flourishing program on the hardwood in Tuscaloosa, with two SEC Championships and Tournament Titles apiece along with four consecutive trips to the NCAA Tournament, including a venture to Elite Eight in 2021 and back-to-back appearances in the Sweet Sixteen of late. We’ve talked at length about his maneuvering in the Transfer Portal over the past few years, allowing the 50-year-old to continuously infuse the roster with experienced talent, which is once again the case this season. Thankfully, that depth has helped through some injury woes, particularly those of (Senior Guard) Latrell Wrightsell and (Freshman Forward) Derrion Reid, with the former having been out of action since the Players Era Festival Impact Tournament in November, while the latter has been sidelined since mid-February. Again, Oats has the arms on hand to survive those losses, with a deep rotation consisting of a mix of seniors and sophomores, which has kept the nation’s most prolific offense firing on all cylinders. Alabama ranks first overall in points scored (91.0) on an efficient 48.3% shooting from the field (28th Overall), including a healthy 60.1% from within the arc (3rd Overall), dishing out 16.8 assists (24th Overall) and knocking down 10.6 three-pointers per game (13th Overall). This is a team that looks to push the tempo whenever they can, often racing ahead as soon as they secure the defensive rebound, which is yet another statistic that they sit atop the country in (30.3). The engine of this machine continues to be (Senior Point Guard) Mark Sears, who earned All-American honors a year ago and looks well on his way to doing so once again. The veteran floor general leads ‘Bama in points (19.1), three-pointers (74), free-throws (169), and assists (5.0). In fact, no player in the SEC has attempted (200) or made more freebies than Sears (pictured below), who could very well cap off this campaign with over 200 free-throws made. When we last saw the Tide, they fell to (No. 4) Tennessee in a tightly contested 79-76 defeat in Knoxville over the weekend, which served to exhibit just how evenly matched these teams at the top of the SEC really are. Neither team led by more than nine points, with most of the statistical categories ending fairly level across the board. Granted, the visitors did put in a strong performance on the glass with a 10-5 edge in offensive rebounds, allowing them to get a wealth of second-chance opportunities to keep it close, which is what this encounter was until the end. Unfortunately, the Tide fell victim to individual heroics as the Vols’ Jahmai Mashack drilled a desperate dagger from well beyond the arc at the buzzer to break the deadlock and grant the hosts the victory. Sears led the losing effort with twenty-four points on 7-of-16 shooting (43.8%), including 4-of-9 from three (44.4%) and 6-of-6 from the stripe (100.0%), while (Senior Forward) Grant Nelson was an animal on the glass with a dozen boards along with a pair of blocks. Ditto for (Sophomore Forwards) who combined for eleven more rebounds, including five of the offensive variety.
From a betting perspective, Alabama comes into Senior Night from Coleman Coliseum with a 23-6 ledger straight-up, though they too have been fairly rewarding against the spread (17-12). This is a team that has covered each of their last three outings since suffering back-to-back non-covers, beating the spread against Kentucky (-12.5) and Mississippi State (-8.5), before narrowly getting the cover in that aforementioned loss at Tennessee (+4.5). The Crimson Tide are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games contested in Tuscaloosa, while covering six of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. As we mentioned earlier, the home team has had the advantage in this series of late (5-2 SU), though that hasn’t been the case in terms of covering, with the hosts owning a 3-4 mark ATS during that stretch. However, the most important thing to know in this matchup is that Oats & Co haven’t bested Florida since February 21st of 2024, dropping each of their last two encounters. Ironically, that victory was the last time that they crossed paths within Coleman, a 98-93 affair that required overtime to crown a victor. Despite a poor shooting performance from three (8-of-32), the Tide managed to pull this one out largely due to their work on the glass and their fluid ball-movement. For the former, the home side logged FIFTY-ONE rebounds, including a ridiculous TWENTY on the offensive end, which led to a wealth of second-chance opportunities around the rim. Nelson shared the team lead with eight boards, while also leading the way with twenty-two points, while Sears added seventeen points, seven rebounds, and eight assists, which leads us to the distribution. ‘Bama totaled nineteen assists in comparison to committing just seven turnovers, which is something that they’ll be looking to replicate tonight against the reptile’s relentless on-ball pressure. On the injury front, don’t expect to see either Wirghtsell (Achilles) or Reid (lower body) any time soon given the nature of their ailments, while (Senior Guard) Houston Mallette has been out since early February with a knee malady. Looking ahead, Alabama will have yet another opportunity to impress the Selection Committee prior to next week’s SEC Tournament, as they take on (No. 1) Auburn in this weekend’s finale in search of revenge following their 94-85 loss at home back on February 15th.