9:10 PM EST, TruTV – Spread: North Carolina -3.5, Total: 142.5
After a contentious Selection Sunday, the 2025 NCAA Tournament caps its first night of action with a matchup that would typically be reserved for the later rounds, let alone the First Four, as the North Carolina Tar Heels battle the San Diego State Aztecs with the winner moving on to the Thursday’s first round of madness. There is no doubt that the biggest story during Sunday’s selection special was the surprise inclusion of North Carolina (22-13, 13-7 in ACC) as the final team selected in this year’s tournament field. By and large, most analysts had the Tar Heels missing out on the big dance for the second time in three years, only for Bubba Cunningham, who is the Chairperson of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, to shock the world with their selection. Why is this controversial, you ask? Well, Cunningham has served as UNC’s Athletic Director since 2011, leaving a plethora of people throwing their hands in the air. While there are always a handful of teams that feel like they received a raw deal this time of year, there is a feeling that the Heels got in simply due to the influence of one of their own within the committee, creating a major conflict of interest. While this is a program that is certainly among the shortlist of bluebloods in college hoops, what with twenty-one Final Fours and six National Championships, the fact is that this was NOT a very good team this season, and the numbers tell the story. (Head Coach) Hubert Davis’ troops lost thirteen games this campaign, their joint-most since he took over from the venerable Roy Williams four years ago, while posting a miserable 1-12 record against Quad-1 opponents and a 1-8 ledger versus ranked foes. Sure, they tackled an arduous schedule, but one single victory over a top-25 adversary (76-74 vs UCLA), simply isn’t enough to vault them ahead of the likes of say, a West Virginia team that bested four different ranked schools, including three residing within the top-10 of the AP Poll. What you could argue is that North Carolina’s recent form was enough to get them over the proverbial line; winners of eight of their last ten outings, with their only two defeats coming at the hands (one seed) Duke, they have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 12.0 points per game, shooting a stellar 49.6% of their attempts from the field, including a blistering 42.6% from beyond the arc. (Fifth-year Senior Point Guard) R.J. Davis has continued his strong play during this stretch, averaging 16.1 points and 3.6 assists, while netting 25-of-60 shots from downtown (41.7%). Unfortunately, he couldn’t maintain that form against the Blue Devils in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament; Davis (pictured below) was relegated to just eight points on 4-of-10 shooting (40.0%), including 0-of-3 from three and as many turnovers as assists (2) in last weekend’s 74-71 loss to their bitter rivals. The Tar Heels trailed by as many as TWENTY-FOUR points in this one, folks, though managed to storm back on the strength of their defense, forcing thirteen turnovers which they managed to parlay into seventeen points and an 11-7 edge in the fast break points. Despite Davis’s struggles, (Junior Forward) Ven-Allen Lubin had no such issues, totaling twenty points and ten rebounds, including six of the offensive variety. With that being said, Lubin had an opportunity to take the lead late in the waning moments of the contest, though missed a free-throw only to have the second waved off due to a lane violation by a teammate. Duke would then net a pair of free-throws on the opposite end of the hardwood, leaving Lubin to attempt a desperate heave from three that fell wide of the mark.
From a betting perspective, North Carolina may be 22-13 straight-up this season, but you have lost money if you’ve consistently wagered on them to cover the spread, with a 15-19-1 mark in that regard. With that being said, they have been a far more rewarding side of late, for after suffering a stretch of EIGHT consecutive ATS losses, the Tar Heels are 8-1 versus the spread over their last nine outings. It will be interesting to see if they can turn this controversy surrounding their selection motivation to sustain a tourney run, but recent trends indicate that may not be the case; UNC is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven contests immediately following a SU defeat, though it should be noted that that lone cover came during this current run of form. As we touched upon earlier, this is easily one of the most accomplished programs in the sport in terms of NCAA Tournament success, totaling FIFTY-THREE appearances with a 133-50 record, with their last natty coming in 2017. Under the direction of Davis, this is a program that is dancing for a third time in four years, including a trip to the 2022 National Final (which they lost to Kansas) and most recently a Sweet Sixteen defeat at the hands of Alabama last March. Getting back to the other Davis (R.J.), the veteran floor general owns a wealth of experience this time of year, with THIRTY-THREE career games played in the months of March and April, 15.4 points on 41.1% shooting from the floor, including 38.9% from beyond the arc, with 3.3 assists. If North Carolina make the most of this gift from the Selection Committee, then they will play (six seed) Ole Miss on March 21st in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Meanwhile, the other side of this matchup tonight in Dayton is San Diego State (21-9, 14-6 in MWC) who will NOT be a pushover for the Tar Heels. In fact, the Aztecs have been far more successful than their opponent has in the big dance over the last two years, what with a trip to the 2023 National Final (as a five seed!) followed by a Sweet Sixteen appearance last March, with each run ended by the eventual National Champion, Connecticut. (Head Coach) Brian Dutcher is taking this program to a fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament, with his typically deep rotation comprised of more of youthful set than in recent years (three sophomores and two freshman), though still possesses a triumvirate of seniors. Chief among them is (Senior Guard) Nick Boyd, a Florida Atlantic transfer who ironically fell to the Tecs during the 2023 Final Four. Boyd (pictured below) has clearly taken well to his new surroundings this year, leading SDSU in scoring (13.4) and assists (4.0), all the while fitting Dutcher’s profile of relentless on-ball pressure. This is a team that has forced 13.4 turnovers this year with 7.7 steals per game, which goes a long way towards fueling their dominant defense, which relinquished the lowest shooting percentage in the country (37.8%). On the year, this is a group that has shipped a mere 63.6 points per contest (14th Overall) on 44.5% shooting from within the arc (44.5%) and 30.2% beyond it (30.2%), while also defending the rim with aplomb, blocking 5.5 shots (8th Overall). Standing 7’0″ and 190 pounds, (Sophomore Center) Magoon Gwath is a certified monster in the painted area, leading the Mountain West with 2.6 blocks per game, while (Senior Forward) Jared Coleman-Jones (6’10”, 240 lbs) has been a wrecking ball since transferring from Middle Tennessee State, posting 7.3 points and 5.1 rebounds a night. Winners of ten of their last fourteen outings, San Diego State find themselves in this position largely due to suffering a disappointing 74-67 loss to a bad UNLV (17-13) team in the season finale, before succumbing to defeat in the quarterfinals of the MWC Tournament against Boise State in a 62-52 affair. Despite leading 33-28 at halftime, Dutcher’s troops completely imploded post intermission as they were outscored 34-19 over the final twenty minutes of action. In a game in which both teams shot well below 40.0% from the field, the Aztecs were hammered on the glass (38-24), particularly on the offensive end (13-3), and could only harass the Broncos into nine turnovers, while committing a dozen themselves, which was a greater total than their output of assists (11). Apart from Boyd’s twenty points, no other Aztec scored in double figures, with the rest of his teammates shooting a miserable 12-of-35 from the floor (34.2%).
From a betting perspective, San Diego State may come into this tournament with a 21-9 record straight-up, but they too have left those wagering on them at a loss this season, posting a 12-17 ledger against the spread. This is a team that hasn’t more than two games in a row all year, with only SIX covers over the course of their last SEVENTEEN outings. The Aztecs have covered four consecutive tilts immediately following double-digit loss at home, which is the case following that aforementioned defeat to Boise State. All-time, SDSU is making their seventeenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, owning a 13-16 CV in the big dance, with that previously mentioned trip to the 2023 National Final being the only time that they have advanced to the tourney’s third weekend. They are 7-4 under Dutcher in the NCAA Tournament, though it should be noted that the Tecs have never beaten the Tar Heels, losing each of their two encounters. Looking ahead, if San Diego State pull off the upset, then they will advance to Friday’s South Regional First Round against (six seed) Mississippi.