9:10 PM EST, TruTV – Spread: Xavier -3.5, Total: 149.5
The final leg of the 2025 NCAA Tournament First Four concludes tonight in Dayton, as the surging Xavier Musketeers take on the Texas Longhorns for the right to move on to the first round of the tourney come Friday. Once upon a time, Xavier (21-11, 13-7 in Big East) was a fixture within the big dance, appearing in a consistent SIXTEEN of eighteen tourneys, including four trips to the Sweet Sixteen and a pair of ventures to the Elite Eight. However, the program fell on hard times in missing the tournament four times in as many years, prompting the return of one of their favorite sons, (Head Coach) Sean Miller. From 2004-2005 to 2008-2009, Miller (pictured below) built the Musketeers into a mid-major powerhouse with a stellar 120-47 record (.718), three consecutive Atlantic-10 titles, and a Regional Final in 2008. A rising star in coaching circles, he would then make the leap to Tucson where he presided over an Arizona program that was in dire straits before his arrival, eventually rebuilding the Wildcats into a perennial Pac-12 contender, winning five conference championships and three conference tournament titles, with seven NCAA Tournament appearances in his first nine years on the sideline. Unfortunately, the good times wouldn’t last as Miller was found to be implicit in the widespread FBI investigation into alleged corruption within NCAA Division I men’s hoops in 2017-2018, leading to not only the coach’s dismissal following the 2020-2021 campaign, but vacated all but NINE wins between the 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 seasons. As such, the 56-year-old returned to Southern Ohio in what has turned out to be beautiful marriage once again. Winners of eight of their last ten games, Xavier ended the regular season on a 7-game win streak before going one-and-done in the Big East tourney. During this stretch, the offense has been strong in averaging 82.8 points on an efficient 49.7% from the field, including a deadly 39.9% from beyond the arc, and dishing out a healthy 18.18.5 assists, while really making quite a living at the charity stripe where they have netted 17.1 free-throws, a margin of 8.1 more than their opponents. (Senior Forward) Zach Freemantle capped off a strong campaign in which he led the Musketeers in both scoring (17.3) and rebounding (7.1), raising his play to 19.3 points on 59.3% shooting, 7.4 boards, and 1.6 assists during that aforementioned stretch. Unfortunately, it wouldn’t be enough in last week’s narrow 89-87 loss to (No. 25) Marquette in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, an affair that saw them waste a 14-point lead early in the second half. After the Golden Eagles finally took the lead with 1:16 remaining in the contest, Freemantle lost possession of the rock at the top of the key, leading to a dagger from downtown to stretch the advantage to four points with twenty-six seconds left on the clock, effectively ending the game. Despite shooting 52.6% from the field and 11-of-23 from three (47.8%), Miller’s troops paid heavily for their mistakes as their ten turnovers led to an 18-2 disparity in points off said mistakes. That late turnover aside, Freemantle played well with fifteen points, seven rebounds, and five assists, while (Junior Guard) Ryan Conwell erupted for a career-high THIRTY-EIGHT points on a blistering 13-of-18 shooting (72.2%), including 7-of-11 on treys (63.6%).
From a betting perspective, Xavier comes into this First Four affair at 21-11 straight-up, but they have also been a rewarding side against the spread (18-14). This is a team that has certainly been a strong play on that latter front of late, bouncing back from a stretch of three consecutive non-covers to post a 6-2 ledger versus the spread. The Musketeers have covered seven of their last ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this a program that is making their thirtieth appearance in the NCAA Tournament, while Miller is dancing for the thirteenth time in coaching career. It should be noted that the last time that either he or the X-Men have participated in the tourney, they advanced to the 2023 Sweet Sixteen, where their run came to an end against none other than Texas in an 83-71 affair. Despite a tightly contested second half, this one was decided in the first, as Xavier was outscored 42-25 over the first twenty minutes of action, with their inability to slow down the Longhorns proving to be their undoing; Miller’s outfit shipped 52.5% shooting from the field, 7-of-12 from three (58.3%), and a 16-8 assist-turnover ratio on the night. The Musketeers are 2-4 all-time against Texas, losing twice in the big dance since 2019. The public appears to be keenly aware of that, folks, as just 30% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are favoring the side from Cincinnati, while a much smaller share of the total volume of money changing hands has followed suit. Looking ahead, if Xavier manages to get revenge against the Horns tonight in Dayton, then they will advance to the first round of the NCAA Tournament where they will be pitted against (six seed) Illinois, whom they have split four all-time encounters.
Meanwhile, Texas (19-15, 6-12 in SEC) finds themselves dancing for a fifth consecutive season, and second under (Head Coach) Rodney Terry, despite winning just a third of their games in league play. Then again, that is absolutely a testament to the mighty Southeast Conference, which sent an NCAA-record FOURTEEN teams to the Big Dance this March. So, there we have it, folks: the Longhorns finished FOURTEENTH in a 16-team league, yet are participating in this tourney all the same. As always, the devil lies in the details; this is a team that obviously faced a tough schedule, facing THIRTEEN ranked opponents (5-8) and FOURTEEN Quad-1 adversaries (5-9), with five of their losses coming against conference brethren that was ranked no lower than eighth in the AP Poll at the time of play. With all that being said, the bigger issue for those crying about the Horns inclusion to this dance is their recent run of form, which if we’re being polite, has left a lot to be desired. Losers of seven of their last nine outings to conclude the regular season before going 2-1 in the SEC Tournament, Texas hasn’t been particularly efficient on either end of the hardwood, shooting just 42.7% overall and 33.7% from beyond the arc, with 11.6 assists opposed to committing 10.1 turnovers, while shipping 44.3% shooting from the field and 50.0% from within the arc. Furthermore, they’ve showed an alarming propensity for sending their foes to the charity stripe during this stretch, allowing 30.5 free-throw attempts per game, which is simply untenable against strong competition. Despite being industrious at getting to the line themselves (24.0 FTA), Terry’s troops are still getting outscored by 4.9 points a night in this regard, which also creates the byproduct of keeping his athletic side from getting into transition. Making this more puzzling is that the Longhorns are a deep group and experienced group with ten players logging over 10.0 minutes of action, with a rotation consisting of six seniors and a pair of juniors, though the biggest headliner is a freshman, namely Tre Johnson. The fifth-ranked recruit in the RSCI Top-100, Johnson (pictured below alongside Terry) has been as advertised in what could very well be his lone campaign in Austin, leading the SEC in both scoring (19.8) and minutes played (34.6), along with 3.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.0 steal while netting an impressive 39.2% of his attempts from downtown. Packed within a lithe 6’6″, 190-pound frame, this is precisely the kind of profile that NBA scouts drool over. Granted, he has cooled down from a blistering run in which he averaged 31.0 points on 48.9% shooting over the course of four games, but there is an argument to be made that the team is better suited for success when not relying upon the Lake Highlands native to carry them on the offensive end, particularly when you consider that they were just 1-3 during that explosion. Either way, he struggled mightily in Texas’ 83-72 to (No. 8) Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament last week, offering just eleven points on 3-of-8 shooting (37.5%) with more turnovers (3) than assists (2) in thirty-two minutes of action. Already fatigued following a double-overtime 94-89 victory over (No. 14) Texas A&M, Terry’s outfit trailed 41-38 at halftime, though were outscored 42-34 post intermission. Predictably at this stage of a conference tourney, the game was played at a slow pace with the two sides combining for a mere nine points in transition. The difference was that the Volunteers were simply more efficient, netting 50.0% of their shots overall, 24-of-35 free-throws (+6), and bullying the Longhorns on the offensive glass (15-12), leading to easy second-chance opportunities and so many of those trips to the stripe. (Junior Guard) Jordan Pope and (Senior Forward) Kadin Shedrick each scored fourteen points apiece on a combined 9-of-14 from the floor (64.2%), while the rest of the team could muster just 16-of-40 shooting (40.0%).
From a betting perspective, Texas comes into this First Four affair 19-15 straight-up, but they have been far less-rewarding against the spread, posting a mediocre 16-17-1 mark in that latte regard. This is a team that has showed signs of being more profitable of late, bouncing back from a miserable run of SEVEN straight non-covers to beat the spread in three of their final five contests, all of which coming as an underdog. Speaking of receiving points from the oddsmakers, the Longhorns are 5-5 versus the spread as a dog, but 3-1 ATS in their last four such outings. All-time, this is a program that is making their THIRTY-NINTH appearance in the NCAA Tournament, owning a middling 40-41 record SU, with thirteen trips to the sweet Sixteen, eight ventures to the Elite Eight, and three expeditions to the Final Four. In fact, it was just two years ago that Terry led the ‘Horns out of turmoil as an interim coach all the way to the Regional Semifinal, which earned him the full-time job. Coincidentally, his troops eliminated Xavier in the Sweet Sixteen of that tournament in that aforementioned 83-71 victory. As we touched upon earlier, Texas jumped all over the Musketeers early in this one, outscoring them Big East denizens 42-25 in the first half. The Longhorns shot a stellar 52.5% from the field, including 25-of-49 from within the arc (51.0%) and 7-of-12 beyond it (58.3%). The public seem to a have a long enough memory for even though there isn’t a single player on Terry’s roster that participated in that tilt, roughly 70% of all wagers placed upon the spread are taking the points, with an even larger share of the total volume of money changing hand following suit to Austin. Looking ahead, if Texas happens to best Xavier in the big dance for a third time in seven years, then they will be pitted against (six seed) Illinois in Friday’s first round. For those wondering, the Longhorns have split six all-time meetings with the Illini.