7:10 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Kansas -4.5, Total: 145.5
One of the best things about the NCAA Tournament are the clashes between coaches that typically don’t cross paths during the season, which brings us to tonight’s clash of coaching titans, as the (ten seed) Arkansas Razorbacks battle the (seven seed) Kansas Jayhawks in this first round matchup from Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island. In a shifting landscape in which schools with the deepest pockets are getting the biggest and brightest coaches and players, Arkansas (20-13, 8-10 in SEC) showed their ambition with a swing for the proverbial fences as they enticed (Head Coach) John Calipari to make the transition from Lexington to Fayetteville. Despite advancing to back-to-back Elite Eights followed by a trip to the 2023 Sweet Sixteen, the Razorbacks opted to part ways with (former HC) Eric Musselman a year later following a disappointing 16-17 campaign, their first losing season since 2009-2010, opening the door for Calipari (pictured below), who had been falling out favor with the faithful at Kentucky. Of course, the expectations are championships at UK, and five consecutive years without at least a trip to the Sweet Sixteen was enough to turn the Wildcats against a man who had led them to a 410-123 record (.769) in fifteen seasons on the sidelines. Now 66-years-old, Calipari made the short trip west to Arkansas, who in turn made him one of the highest-paid coaches in the country with a 5-year deal worth just over $7 million annually. Lauded as one of the greatest recruiters in the sport, he completely remade the roster with five major transfers, including THREE that followed him from Lexington, along with three Top-30 recruits from RSCI’s 2024 rankings. With that in mind, it should come as no surprise that the Kentucky triumvirate of (Junior Guard) Adou Thiero, (Sophomore Guard) D.J. Wagner, and (Sophomore Forward) Zvonimir Ivisic have been the most prominent hogs in Coach Cal’s pen. Thiero leads the group in scoring (15.6), rebounds (6.0), and steals (1.7), while Wagner, the sixth-ranked recruit in 2023, adds 11.3 points and 3.5 assists, with the towering Ivisic (7’2″, 234 lbs) bringing 9.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks to the table. Despite playing just 20.1 minutes per game, we would imagine that the big Croatian will see plenty of action in this matchup against Kansas’ own colossus, Hunter Dickinson (more on him in a bit). After a particularly rough stretch in SEC play in which they dropped six out of seven games, Arkansas has bounced back nicely with eight victories in their final thirteen outings, including victories over ranked foes such as Kentucky (89-79), Missouri (92-85), and Mississippi State (93-92). After besting South Carolina (72-68) in the first round of the SEC Tournament, Cal’s charges were eliminated by Ole Miss in a tightly contested 83-80 affair a day later. After trailing 42-34 at halftime, the hogs rallied back to take 61-53 lead midway through the second half thanks to a furious 34-11 run. However, as has often been the case with Calipari’s past teams, free-throw shooting proved to be a major issue; with the score level at 7.4 second left on the clock, (Junior Forward) Trevon Brazile missed each of his two attempts from the charity stripe, leading directly to the Rebel’s game-winning dagger from downtown. On the day, the Razorbacks shot 21-of-32 from the line (65.6%), costing them a tilt in which they dominated the glass (38-32) and scored seventeen points off turnovers. Brazile and (Freshman Forward) Billy Richmond scored fifteen points apiece, with the former securing eleven rebounds (6 offensive), while the hogs other big fella, (Tennessee transfer) Jonas Aidoo scored a team-high seventeen points, with eight rebounds, a steal, and a block in twenty-eight minutes off the bench.
From a betting perspective, Arkansas comes into this first round affair with a 20-13 record straight-up, though they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a disappointing 14-17-2 ledger in that latter regard. This is a team that has cooled off a bit following a profitable 7-1 run versus the spread, only to cover two of their last five outings, though it should be noted that each of those two spread wins have come as an underdog. The Razorbacks have been successful in this role of late, owning a 7-3 mark ATS in their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Calipari & Co have covered SIX straight outings immediately following a SU defeat, which is the case tonight. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-fourth appearance in the big dance, posting a stellar 50-35 SU record, including seventeen Sweet Sixteens, nine Elite Eights, and six Final Fours, with their lone National Championship coming back in 1994 during the 40 Minutes of Hell era under (Hall of Famer) Nolan Richardson. As for Calipari, he is now making his twenty-fourth trip to the NCAA Tournament with his fourth different school and will be looking to collect his second National Championship (Kentucky in 2012). Ironically, he was denied by none other than Kansas in the 2008 National Final, a 75-68 affair that required overtime to decide a victor. Arkansas has faced the Jayhawks on thirteen occasions (6-7), including twice in the NCAA tourney, the most recent of which was a rousing 72-71 upset of top-seeded KU in the 2023 second round. The public seems to remember that one, folks, as approximately 70% of all wagers placed upon the spread are singing pig sooie, while a much larger share of all the money being wagered thus far are following suit to Fayetteville. On the injury front, the hogs are without two of their biggest guns, including the aforementioned Thiero () and (Freshman Guard) Boogie Fland, who prior to suffering season-ending injuries combined for 30.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.7 assists, 3.2 steals per game. Fland has been out since January, while Thiero has been sidelined with an ailing knee since the season finale at Vanderbilt. Looking ahead, if Arkansas manages to upset Kansas once again, then they will in all likelihood face (two seed) St. John’s in Saturday’s second round, setting up a spicy matchup between Calipari and his old rival, Rick Pitino.
Meanwhile, the other half of this clash of coaching royalty lies in Lawrence where (Head Coach) Bill Self enters yet another big dance following a very un-Kansas like campaign. Now in his twenty-second season at Kansas (21-12, 11-9 in BIG XII), the 62-year-old has seen it all and done it all in Lawrence, owning a 624-155 record (.801) since arriving back in 2003, leading the Jayhawks to SIXTEEN BIG XII Championships, and EIGHT BIG XII Tournament Titles, while advancing to eleven Sweet Sixteens, eight Elite Eights, and three Final Fours, with a pair of National Championships (2008 and 2022). However, if there is a criticism of Self (pictured below), it is that his teams have also exhibited a knack for underachieving in the tourney despite their typical lofty seeding; in those twenty previous tournament appearances, his troops have failed to get out of the opening weekend on NINE occasions, including back-to-back second-round upsets in the past two seasons. This doesn’t bode well for the birds as they head into this dance, for as we stated in the opening, this has been nothing short of a down year for KU. With a dozen losses, Kansas has posted their highest total of defeats since the 1988-1989 campaign, which was (Hall of Fame HC) Roy Williams’ first season with the program. Furthermore, their 11-9 ledger in league play is their worst since that same campaign, which was coincidentally the last time that they missed the tournament altogether. So, what has been the problem for Kansas, you ask? Well, it’s not for a lack of experience, as Self has a rotation consisting of SIX seniors, though only two (Dajuan Harris and K.J. Adams) were members of their last National Title team. Like many of his contemporaries, Self has been forced to change his approach and tap into the Transfer Portal, with much his rotation coming from other schools, including (Senior Center) Hunter Dickinson, who in his second season since arriving from Michigan leads the team in scoring (17.6), rebounding (10.0), and blocks (1.3). The Jayhawks remain a staunch defensive unit, relinquishing the lowest shooting percentage in the BIG XII (39.7%), including just 46.3% from within the arc (1st in BIG XII), while also sitting atop the league in rebounds (35.0). The problem though, is that this isn’t the most balanced offensive attack, with the bulk of their production coming within the paint, where Dickinson has been a wrecking ball. Unfortunately, they’re not very industrious from downtown despite shooting a middling 33.6% (6th in BIG XII), ranking eleventh (137) and twelfth (408) in makes and attempts. It also should be noted that these birds have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country, what with fifteen games against teams currently in this tournament field (6-9) and eight against ranked opposition (4-4), with their biggest flaw being that they have struggled against such foes. It certainly didn’t help that they crashed out of the BIG XII Tournament in the quarterfinals phase against an Arizona side that bested at Phog Allen Fieldhouse in the season finale a week earlier. Perhaps they were fatigued after being taken to overtime by UCF a day beforehand, but Self’s troops looked sluggish on the defensive end as the Wildcats torched them 53.4% shooting from the field, including 14-of-31 from beyond the arc (45.2%), leading to a disparity of eighteen points in that category. Kansas also finished the night with a scant TWO fast break points, which only underscores their slow, plodding approach. Dickinson filled the stat sheet with nineteen points, twelve rebounds, three assists, and a pair of blocks, while Harris and (Senior Guard) Zeke Mayo, a transfer from South Dakota State, combined for thirty-six points, but accounted for five of their team’s thirteen turnovers.
From a betting perspective, Kansas comes into this dance with a 21-12 record straight-up, but they too have been a rather unrewarding play against the spread, posting a 15-18 ledger in that latter regard. After enduring a miserable stretch in which they earned only TWO covers in eleven games, things have evened out for the Jayhawks of late with a 4-3 mark versus the spread over their final seven outings. Self & Co are 4-6 ATS in their last ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a program that is making their FIFTY-THIRD appearance in the NCAA Tournament, including a ridiculous 117-50 SU record with SIXTEEN trips to the Final Four and a quartet of National Titles (two of which came courtesy of Self). Interestingly, his first natty came at the expense of the man that he is coaching against tonight, as the 2007-2008 ‘Hawks came back to defeat the aforementioned Calipari’s Tigers in one of the most memorable National Finals, with (former Point Guard) Mario Chalmers’ game-tying trey forcing OT. It should also be noted that Self trails Coach Cal 5-6 in their all-time head-to-head matchups, though did come one game closer to drawing level with last year’s 77-68 triumph over Kentucky in the annual BIG XII-SEC Challenge. With that being said, Arkansas eliminated top-seeded Kansas in the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, which saw the Razorbacks send the Jayhawks packing at the buzzer. As we stated earlier, it appears that the public has strong memories of that affair, as only 30% of all wagers being placed upon tonight’s spread are singing Rock Chalk Jayhawk, with a mere 6% of all the money being wagered on this front following suit to Lawrence. Looking ahead, if the birds manage to avoid another upset at the hooves of the hogs, then they will in all probability be paired up with (two seed) St. John’s, who are fresh off their first Big East Championship since 1992.