9:25 PM EST, TNT – Spread: UConn -5.5, Total: 147.5
The opening round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament comes to close tonight in Raleigh, as the two-time reigning National Champion (8 seed) UConn Huskies begin their trek to a historic threepeat in this clash with the (9 seed) Oklahoma Sooners. By now, you have probably noticed that there are A LOT of SEC teams participating within this tournament field, and there is a good reason for that: the Southeast Conference sent a record FOURTEEN of their sixteen residents to the big dance, which is a byproduct of their expansion as a conference this season, adding both Oklahoma (20-13, 6-12 in SEC) and their bitter rivals, Texas, to their number. Now in his fourth season in Norman, (Head Coach) Porter Moser was under pressure to take the Sooners dancing after missing out on the tourney in each of his first three years on the job. Of course, the 56-year-old made a MASSIVE leap to OU, enjoying successful spells at Little Rock and Illinois State before rising to prominence at Loyola (IL), where he guided the Ramblers to a shock Final Four appearance in the 2018 NCAA Tournament. After showing incremental improvement through his first three campaigns in Oklahoma, the deck was stacked against Moser as Boomer & Sooner made the transition to the SEC, though in the end it appears that they have benefitted greatly from playing in such a stacked league. Case in point: his troops finished with a comparable record last year (20-12) and were omitted from the tourney field, only to be rewarded a year later after facing much tougher competition. Oklahoma was tasked with the twenty-seventh hardest schedule int he country, tackling FOURTEEN games against ranked foes (5-9) and a whopping TWENTY-ONE contests versus schools that have been invited to this dance (6-12), including eighteen of their last twenty outings. That is precisely why they punched their ticket despite winning only a third of their conference games. Upon watching this team, they certainly skew to the offensive end of the hardwood, ranking sixtieth in points (78.8), fifty-fifth in field goal percentage (47.2%), and forty-first in three-point percentage (37.0%), while routinely taking residence at the charity stripe where they net an industrious 17.5 free-throws per game, the twelfth-most in the nation. It helps that their most prominent players are so good at getting to the stripe, with (Freshman Guard) Jeremiah Fears and (Senior Forward) Jalon Moore combining for 9.5 free-throw per game. Fears (pictured below alongside Moore) is one of just two freshmen in an experienced rotation dominated by seniors, though has played beyond his years. The youngster out of Illinois leads the Sooners in points (17.0), assists (4.1), free-throws (175), and steals (1.6), though can get a little wild with the rock (3.5 turnovers), which has been an issue for the team as a whole, ranking third worst in the SEC in turnovers (12.1). In fact, no player in the conference has coughed up the ball more than Fears. Ironically, this wasn’t a problem at all in his team’s narrow 85-84 loss at the hands of (No. 15) Kentucky in the second round of the SEC Tournament. Oklahoma turned it over just eight times in this one, an affair that came down to who had the last shot, which unfortunately for everyone from Norman, was NOT the Sooners. After rallying back to take a late lead, Moser’s troops fell victim to (former teammate) Otega Oweh, whose baseline jumper with 0.5 seconds left on the clock ended his former school’s first conference tourney as a member of the SEC. The Junior Guard transferred to Lexington last Summer and clearly had something in the bag for OU, totaling twenty-seven points, five rebounds, four assists, and three steals. Fears was just as good, scoring a game-high twenty-eight points on 10-of-22 shooting (45.5%), carrying the attack with field goal to briefly give his side the lead with 5.6 seconds remaining.
From a betting perspective, Oklahoma come into this first NCAA Tournament in four years with a 20-13 record straight-up, while proving to be a rewarding side against the spread as well, posting an 18-15 mark against the spread. This is a team that has been on absolute tear in that latter regard, covering each of their last SEVEN games, all of which have come as an underdog. The Sooners have been strong in that role, folks, posting a 7-3 ledger versus the spread over their last ten outings when receiving points from the oddsmakers and are 12-6 ATS in such tilts this season. Furthermore, they are on a run of seven straight covers against opponents with winning records, which obviously going to be the case in the big dance. All-time, OU is making their thirty-fourth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (43-33 SU), advancing to fourteen Sweet Sixteens, seven Elite Eights, and Final Fours, with their last trip to the National Semifinal coming back in 2016. As for Moser, he is making his third appearance in the tourney with this being his first with Oklahoma. Interestingly, the Sooners are 3-1 SU in four all-time meetings with the Huskies, though it should be noted that these programs have not crossed paths on the hardwood since 2005, a 77-65 upset of (No. 12) Connecticut in Norman. It’s clear that the public’s memory isn’t quite that long, for they are torn on tonight’s contest; approximately 56% of all wagers placed upon the spread are sporting the crimson and cream, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (55%). On the injury front, (Senior Forward) Sam Godwin is listed as questionable to participate in this showdown with the defending champs after missing that aforementioned tryst with Kentucky due to an ailing knee. The 6’9″ 210-pounder out of Moore, Oklahoma does a lot of the dirty work around the rim, averaging 6.5 points and 5.2 rebounds, including a team-high 2.4 offensive boards. Looking ahead, if Oklahoma does indeed pull the upset tonight, then will in all likelihood meet the top seed in the West Region, Florida, whom they are well-acquainted with; Moser & Co were annihilated in their lone meeting with the Gators this season, an 85-63 blowout in Gainesville in which they were held to 38.8% shooting and eight assists.
Meanwhile, winning a national championship is a ridiculously difficult feat to accomplish, while winning back-to-back national titles is one of the rarest accomplishments in this sport. For UConn (23-10, 14-6 in Big East), the task this season is attempting to bring a THIRD natty to Storrs, which is something that hasn’t been seen since the days of John Wooden’s UCLA dynasty in the 1970s. In today’s game in which players rarely stay long enough to put together such a run, it is rather remarkable that the Huskies are even in this position. Hell, even (Head Coach) Dan Hurley was on the verge of leaving the program in the Summer as the Los Angeles Lakers launched a recruiting assault to procure his services. However, Hurley (pictured below) opted instead to remain with Connecticut and take a crack at history, which has proven to be more difficult than even the most optimistic fan could imagine. To give you an idea as to how good this program has been over the previous two campaigns, they amassed a staggering 68-11 record en route to cutting down the nets in successive big dances, while this year’s incarnation suffered three consecutive defeats in November alone. From there, UConn went 18-7 the rest of the way, eventually falling in the Semifinals of the Big East Tournament in a 71-62 affair against Creighton. As has been the case throughout the campaign, these Huskies just haven’t been nearly as proficient as their predecessors had on the defensive end of the court, shipping 70.2 points in conference play (5th in Big East) on 43.1% shooting from the field (4th in Big East), 47.9% from within the arc (3rd in Big East) and 34.1% from beyond it (7th in Big East). These issues came to the forefront against the Bluejays, who torched Hurley’s troops to the tune of 52.0% shooting, including 20-of-33 on two-point field goals (60.6%) and 13-of-18 from the charity stripe (72.2%), while committing a scant three turnovers. Conversely, the reigning champs could muster 42.6% shooting themselves, including 18-of-40 from within the arc (45.0%), while attempting a mere FOUR free-throws, which should give you an idea as to who the more aggressive team was. (Sophomore Guard) Solomon Ball, who was part of the bench mob for last year’s national champion, led the way with thirteen points on 5-of-9 shooting (55.6%), five rebounds, and two assists, while (Senior Forward) Hassan Diarra and (Freshman Forward) Liam McNeeley combined for twenty-four points on a disappointing 10-of-31 shooting (32.2%), including 7-of-22 on two-pointers (31.8%). As for (Junior Forward) Alex Karaban, another fixture of their two title-winning sides, he was particularly poor with nearly as many personal fouls (4) as points (6). At the end of the day, the biggest issue that Hurley and his Huskies have had to deal with is the inevitable talent drain after achieving such lofty levels of success; Connecticut lost FOUR starters to the NBA Draft during the summer, including four of their top-five leading scorers, their starting backcourt, and their leading rebounder/shot-blocker.
From a betting perspective, UConn comes into this fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament under Hurley’s watch at 23-10 straight-up, but they haven’t nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 15-18 mark on that front, resulting in a net loss of 6.09 units. Given their pedigree, this is a team that has been favored quite a bit, TWENTY-SEVEN times to be exact (11-16 ATS), though it should be noted that they have covered four of their last five outings overall, all as favorites. All-time, Connecticut is dancing for the thirtieth time in school history (71-32 SU), advancing to NINETEEN Sweet Sixteens, THIRTEEN Elite Eights, and SEVEN Final Fours, while claiming SIX National Championships, all of which coming from 1999 on, which is the most of any program since then. In fact, the Huskies are currently riding an impressive streak of TWELVE consecutive victories in the NCAA Tournament, which is one shy of matching the dynastic Duke teams of the early 1990s, would see their respective bid for a threepeat come to an end in the second round of the 1993 tourney. As for the Florida sides of the latter 2000s, who are the only other back-to-back national champions in the last thirty-five years, they didn’t even return to the big dance for another three seasons after cutting down the nets in 2007, going one and done in the 2010 tournament. Given all of that, the public isn’t nearly as bullish on these dogs as they have been in recent years, with roughly 44% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread residing in the northeast, while a marginally larger share of the total money wagered at this point following suit to Storrs. Looking ahead, if UConn manages to keep their tourney win streak alive, then they will in all likelihood be pitted against none other than the (1 Seed) Gators in Sunday’s Second Round affair.