9:40 PM EST, TBS – Spread: Arizona -3.5, Total: 152.5
The second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament comes to its conclusion with a renewal of acquaintances between bitter rivals, as the (5 Seed) Oregon Ducks cross paths with the (4 Seed) Arizona Wildcats in this showdown in Seattle. Tonight’s affair marks the first time that these former longtime members of the Pac-12 meet as current residents of the BIG 10 and BIG XII respectively. It has been nothing short of an uneven campaign for Oregon (25-9, 12-8 in BIG 10), who came into this season unranked, only to make plenty of noise in the early stages with a 12-1 start featuring three successive victories over adversaries currently residing in the tournament field, (No. 20) Texas A&M (80-70), San Diego State (78-68), and (No. 9) Alabama (83-81). With that being said, the Ducks struggled to maintain that form upon embarking on their first conference schedule in a new league, dropping FIVE consecutive games at one point, which saw them plummet out of the rankings altogether. Thankfully, (Head Coach) Dana Altman’s troops found their footing before it was too late, ending the regular season on a 7-game win streak, before splitting their two outings in the BIG 10 Tournament, where they were eliminated in the quarterfinals against (No. 7) Michigan State (74-64). Now in his fifteenth season in Eugene, Altman has won 20+ games every year on the job, taking his charge dancing on nine occasions, including five trips past the first weekend of the tourney, highlighted by a Final Four appearance in 2017. The 66-year-old has senior-laden rotation that has leaned heavily into the Transfer Portal with four of their seven seniors arriving from other programs, including (Villanova transfer) T.J. Bamba, who was selected All-BIG 10 Defense after logging 1.8 steals per game. That defense was infectious in Friday’s 81-52 rout of (12 Seed) Liberty, as UO held their opponent to a mere 32.8% shooting from the field, including a dismal 8-of-37 from beyond the arc (21.6%), with a 43-27 advantage on the glass. Bamba racked up FOUR of the Ducks’ eleven steals, leading to an 11-2 edge in fast break points. On the opposite end of the court, Oregon had no problems filling up the basket, netting 54.4% of their attempts overall, including 21-of-36 from within the arc (58.3%) and 10-of-21 beyond it (47.6%). (Senior Center) Nathan Bittle (pictured below) totaled fourteen points and ten rebounds in just twenty-two minutes of action, while (Sophomore Guard) Jackson Shelstad scored a team-high seventeen points on 7-of-11 shooting (63.6%) and three of his side’s ten treys. Altman did a good job of pulling his starters out of this blowout in an effort keep them fresh for tonight’s reunion with the Wildcats, as none of his players logged over twenty-seven minutes of playing time.
From a betting perspective, Oregon comes into this second-round tilt at 24-9 straight-up, but they have just barely managed to turn a profit against the spread, posting an 18-17 mark in that regard. As we covered earlier, this is a team that has been streaky throughout the campaign, which applies to the performance versus the spread, covering seven of their last nine outings coming into tonight. The Ducks haven’t found themselves receiving points from the oddsmakers very often this season, though they have been rewarding when in that role covering five of eight such contests. All-time, this is a program that is making their nineteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (28-17 SU), advancing to ten Sweet Sixteens, Six Elite Eights, and a pair of Final Fours, with their lone National Championship coming back in 1939. Looking at this particular matchup, these schools have met on NINETY-THREE occasions, with the birds trailing 38-55, though they have taken six of the last ten encounters. Last season, Altman & Co were bested in each of their two regular season fixtures, only to get their revenge in the final Pac-12 Tournament, a 67-59 in the semifinals en route to claiming the school’s sixth conference tourney title. Shelstad led the way with twenty-one points on 7-of-16 shooting (43.8%), including 3-of-7 from downtown (42.9%), four rebounds, and three blocks. As for Bittle, he participated in the first of those three meetings, scoring just four points in twelve minutes of an 87-78 loss in Eugene, though would miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a broken left wrist. Looking ahead, if Oregon do manage to pull the upset and advance to their first Regional Semifinal since 2021, then they will face the winner of (1 Seed) Duke and (9 Seed) Baylor, with the Ducks splitting two meetings against the Blue Devils, hammering them in an 82-68 affair in the 2016 Sweet Sixteen.
Meanwhile, Arizona (23-12, 14-6 in BIG XII) has also acclimated rather smoothly to a new, competitive conference with an eye on advancing to their third Sweet Sixteen since (Head Coach) Tommy Lloyd took over three years ago. The 50-year-old has really done a stellar job of rebuilding a program that was firmly in the crosshairs of the NCAA following the widespread scandal of 2017 that ultimately cost (former HC) Sean Miller his job. Coming over from Gonzaga where he had spent over two decades as an assistant under the venerable Mark Few, Lloyd has the Wildcats dancing for the fourth time in as many years on the job in Tucson. This roster has been equal parts traditional recruiting and tapping into the Transfer Portal, resulting in a unique blend of youth, experience, size, and athleticism. Given his roots in Spokane, it makes sense that his troops are one of the better offensive sides in the country, ranking twentieth overall in points (82.1) on 47.6% shooting from the field (43rd Overall), including 53.3% from within the arc (47th Overall), eighteenth in free-throws made (17.0), and thirty-first in assists (16.4), and fifty-seventh in offensive rebounds (12.3). The backcourt is tailormade for March, with the triumvirate of Caleb Love, Jaden Bradley, and K.J. Lewis combining for 39.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, 10.2 assists, and 4.4 steals. Bradley (pictured below) a transfer from Alabama who arrived from Tuscaloosa two years ago, led the charge in Friday night’s dominant 93-65 performance against (13 Seed) Akron. The Rochester native torched the Zips for nineteen points on 8-of-13 shooting (61.5%), including 3-of-5 from beyond the arc (60.0%), six rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals. In fact, the ‘Cats netted a strong 12-of-25 attempts from downtown (48.0%), which is well above their typical standard; this is NOT one of the better perimeter-shooting teams in the country, folks, making just 32.9% of their attempts this season (236th Overall), equating just seven makes per contest (264th Overall). Outscoring their opponent by fifteen points on that front was simply icing on the cake for Lloyd & Co, who shot 56.5% overall, assisting on 21-of-39 field goals, and getting a wealth of easy second-chance opportunities courtesy of fifteen offensive rebounds. Consider this: Arizona won this game by twenty-eight points despite netting just 3-of-10 free-throws (30.0%) and committing sixteen turnovers, due in large part to relegating Akron to 33.3% shooting from the floor, 7-of-25 from deep (28.0%), and a scant six assists. As the old adage goes, defense travels…
From a betting perspective, Arizona comes into this showdown in Seattle at 22-12 straight-up, though have also been rewarding against the spread, posting a 19-15 ledger in that regard. This is a team that has run hot and cold versus the spread of late, coming off a streak of six straight covers with just five of them over their last twelve games. It should be noted that the Wildcats are 2-2 in games in which the oddsmakers are favoring them by 3.5 or less points, which is precisely where the spread lies tonight. All-time, this is program is certainly one of the true bluebloods of the sport, making their twenty-eighth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (61-37 SU), advancing to TWENTY Sweet Sixteens, ten Elite Eights, and four Final Fours, with their lone National Championship coming back in 1997. As we covered earlier, Arizona owns a commanding 55-38 advantage, including a 4-2 record against their former Pac-12 rivals under the direction of Lloyd. The Wildcats dominated the first two meetings from last season, an 87-78 affair in Eugene before issuing a 103-83 thumping in Tucson a month later. However, that would not be the case in that aforementioned semifinal affair in the Pac-!2 Tournament, which saw them relegated to a season-low fifty-nine points on 38.3% shooting, committing just as many turnovers as they did assists (14). This was a case where their poor shooting from three really hurt them, as they could muster just 5-of-19 shooting on that front (26.3%). Looking ahead, if Arizona manage to reach yet another Regional Semifinal, then they will face either Duke or Baylor, which could either set up a rematch of the 2001 National Title Game where they ultimately fell to the Blue Devils, or a third battle with their new BIG XII neighbors, the Bears, whom they bested twice already this season.