8:40 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Houston -5.5, Total: 139.5
The 2025 NCAA Tournament rages on into the second round with a matchup that would typically be reserved for later weekends of the dance, as the (8 Seed) Gonzaga Bulldogs cross paths with the (1 Seed) Houston Cougars in this Midwest Region showdown from INTRUST Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas. Once upon a time a mid-major Cinderella, Gonzaga (26-8, 14-4 in WCC) has long since shed that image as they have grown into a full-fledged powerhouse program under the guiding hand of (longtime Head Coach) Mark Few. Now in his twenty-sixth season in Spokane, Few has presided over a program that has been a fixture of the NCAA Tournament for over two decades, advancing to at least the Sweet Sixteen in NINE consecutive dances, including a pair of National Finals (2017 and 2021). After seeing an 11-year reign over the West Coast Conference snapped last season, the Bulldogs finished second in the league only to capture their TWENTIETH WCC Tournament Title under the 62-year-old’s leadership. Deep and experienced with six seniors at his disposal within the rotation, Few’s troops tackled their typically arduous non-conference schedule, battling six different schools residing within this tourney field, including Baylor, San Diego State, Indiana, Kentucky, UConn, and UCLA, splitting those contests. This continues to be one of the most prolific offensive teams in the country, ranking second overall in points (86.7) and field goal percentage (50.1%), all the while enjoying supremely fluid ball-movement at 19.8 assists per game (1st Overall). This was more than evident in their 89-68 drubbing of (9 Seed) Georgia in Thursday’s opening round of the tourney; Gonzaga raced out to a commanding 48-27 lead at halftime en route to shooting 55.0% from the field, including a blistering 12-of-20 from beyond the arc (60.0%) where they outscored the SEC denizens by a whopping TWENTY-ONE points. Furthermore, they assisted on a healthy 23-of-33 field goals, while manufacturing thirteen turnovers into a 25-9 advantage in that regard. Four different players scored in double figures for the Zags, led by (Senior Guard) Khalif Battle, who erupted for twenty-four points on 9-of-13 shooting (69.2%), including 4-of-7 from downtown (57.1%), along with eight rebounds and a pair of assists. We’ll say this about Battle (pictured below), he is WELL traveled. The New Jersey native is on his FOURTH different school in six years, breaking into the collegiate ranks with Butler before spending three seasons at Temple, followed by a brief stay at Arkansas. Fellow seniors Nolan Hickman and Graham Ike added eighteen and thirteen points respectively, with the former raining down five treys, while (Sophomore Forward) Braden Huff totaled eighteen points and eight rebounds.
From a betting perspective, Gonzaga enters this second-round tilt in Wichita at 26-8 straight-up, though they haven’t been nearly as rewarding against the spread, posting a 15-19 mark in that latter regard, resulting in a net loss of 5.18 units. With that being said, this is a team that has been far more profitable of late, covering six of their last eight outings, including that aforementioned blowout of Georgia on Thursday. However, these Bulldogs find themselves in uncharted waters as they are receiving points from the oddsmakers for the FIRST time this season. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-seventh appearance in the NCAA Tournament (47-26 SU), including fourteen Sweet Sixteens, six Elite Eights, and a pair of Final Fours, though as we touched upon earlier, have yet to capture that elusive national championship. The Zags have also won nine consecutive second-round contests in the big dance. Looking at this particular matchup, tonight’s showdown with Houston will mark the first time that these schools have crossed paths on the hardwood. Looking ahead, if Gonzaga manages to knock off Houston tonight, then they will play the winner of (4 Seed) Purdue and (12 Seed) McNeese State, who pulled the first major shocker of this tournament with their 69-67 upset of (5 Seed) Clemson. For those wondering, the Zags bested the Cowboys in their lone affair, though are winless in five meetings with the Boilermakers, including an 80-68 loss in last March’s Sweet Sixteen.
Meanwhile, Houston (31-4, 19-1 in BIG XII) has been in a similar situation in knocking on the proverbial door over the past six years, advancing to no less than the Sweet Sixteen in each of the past five tourneys. Now in his eleventh season with the Cougars, (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson has returned this program to its proper standing among the nation’s elite after decades spent lost in the wilderness. Consider this, folks: since the days of Guy Lewis’ Phi Slama Jama in the early 1980s, the Cougs went THIRTY-ONE years without a victory in the NCAA Tournament, participating in just four dances during that stretch. Getting back to Sampson, he has led his troops to FIVE 30-win campaigns over the last six years, six conference titles spread between two different leagues, winning the AAC Championship in 2022-2023 before turning right around and securing back-to-back BIG XII Titles. At this point, the only thing left for the 69-year-old to accomplish is a national title, which is certainly attainable from our POV. At his disposal is a veteran team (4 seniors/3 juniors) that has been battle-tested, with fourteen games against adversaries residing within this tournament field (10-4), including early battles with (No. 4) Auburn and (No. 7) Alabama (both of which were defeats). Whereas their opponent tonight wins with prolific offense, Houston is all about the other end of the hardwood, employing the most stifling defense in the country. These cats have relegated opponents to a scant 57.9 points (1st Overall) on just 38.1% shooting from the field (2nd Overall), including 44.1% from within the arc (5th Overall) and 30.2% beyond it (18th Overall). While this isn’t a particularly large team, they make up for it with their physicality and relentless activity on that end of the court, which was more than evident in Thursday’s 78-40 thumping of (16 Seed) Southern Illinois-Edwardsville. In this Cougars/Cougars showdown, Sampson’s troops smothered their opposition to the tune of 30.6% shooting from the field, permitting just sixteen total points to be scored in the second half alone. To put that into perspective, they were already leading 52-24 at intermission, but instead of letting their foot off the gas, they dug in and put SIUE out of their misery. Despite not shooting particularly well themselves (40.0%), Houston did net 10-of-28 attempts from three (35.7%), parlaying to a +24 advantage on that front, while dominating the offensive glass (19 rebounds), leading to a wealth of second-chance opportunities around the rim. Furthermore, they forced their foe into thirteen turnovers, leading to a 15-3 advantage in points via those mistakes. The veteran Backcourt of L.J. Cryer and Milos Uzan combined for thirty-one points on 11-of-19 shooting (57.8%), including 6-of-11 from downtown (54.5%), four rebounds, and seven assists. Cryer (pictured below) accounted for four of his team’s ten treys, while Uzan did most of his damage at the rim (4-of-5 2FG).
From a betting perspective, Houston comes into tonight’s affair in Wichita at 31-4 straight-up, but they have been a rewarding side against the spread too, owning a 19-16 mark on that front. This is a team that has really been streaky in that regard, with four different stretches of 3+ wins versus the spread, while experiencing as many runs of 3+ ATS losses as well. Currently, they are on the positive side of the spectrum, riding a streak of three consecutive covers, including that aforementioned annihilation of SIUE, whom they were favored by 28.5 points. Like their opponent tonight, the Cougars have been sizable favorites throughout the campaign, receiving points from the oddsmakers only once, while posting a 3-3 record ATS when favored by 5.5 or fewer points, which is precisely where the spread lies tonight. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (41-30 SU), advancing to sixteen Sweet Sixteens, seven Elite Eights, and six Final Fours, though are 0-2 in National Finals. As for Sampson, the veteran taskmaster is in his twenty-first big dance with his fourth different school, with two appearances in the Final Four (2002 and 2021). As we touched upon earlier, this is the first time that Houston and Gonzaga have ever met on the hardwood. On the injury front, keep an eye on the duo of (Senior Forward) J’Wan Roberts and (Junior Guard) Terrance Arcenenaux, who were both questionable heading into Thursday’s opener with lower body ailments. Both players logged 20+ minutes of action, combining for sixteen points, seven rebounds, and a pair of steals. Looking ahead, if Houston advances past the Zags tonight, then they will take on the winner of Purdue/McNeese State, owning a commanding 7-1 record versus the Cowboys and a 1-2 ledger versus the Boilermakers.