7:39 PM EST, TBS – Spread: Florida -6.5, Total: 154.5
After an entertaining opening weekend to the 2025 NCAA Tournament, it is on to the Sweet Sixteen where the wheat begins to separate itself from the chafe, as the (1 Seed) Florida Gators battle the (4 Seed) Maryland Terrapins in this cold-blooded West Regional Semifinal from Chase Center in San Francisco, California. Final scores aside, there wasn’t one seed that had a more difficult pathway to progress to this second weekend than Florida (32-4, 14-4 in SEC), who were faced with the unenviable task of eliminating the two-time reigning national champions, UConn, and snapping their 13-game win streak in the big dance, which was the longest since Duke’s dynastic run in the early 1990s and ironically one more than the Gators’ own 12-game run when they too won back-to-back national titles (2006 and 2007). With that being said, these rowdy reptiles were more than up to the task, outlasting the Huskies in a grueling 77-75 affair. Despite holding the defending champs to a pedestrian 37.5% shooting from the field and 8-of-29 from beyond the arc (27.6%), UF nearly threw it all away with their carelessness with the basketball. (Head Coach) Todd Golden may have developed an ulcer after watching his troops commit a dozen turnovers to allow Connecticut back into the contest, as they trailed by as many as six points late in a tightly contested second half. However, (Senior Guard) Walter Clayton Jr. would NOT be having any part of such a collapse, scoring thirteen of his game-high twenty-three points in the final eight minutes of the game. The All-American drilled a pair of late daggers to put his side back ahead for good, propelling Florida to their first Sweet Sixteen appearance since 2017. In the end, the Gators shot a much healthier 46.0% from the field, including 9-of-19 from downtown (47.4%), with five of those treys charged to Clayton (pictured below), who also accounted for nearly half (5) of his team’s turnovers. (Fellow Seniors) Alijah Martin and Will Richard combined for another thirty-three points on 11-of-20 shooting (55.0%) and 4-of-8 from three (50.0%), with the former securing three offensive rebounds and the latter capturing three steals. The victory sets up a homecoming for Golden, who arrived in the Swamp two years ago following an impressive tenure at San Francisco. The 39-year-old led the Dons 24-10 record in his third year with the program and their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998. There were some that felt that making the leap from the WCC to the mighty SEC would be a bridge too far for the young tactician, though he has answered his critics with a swift rebuild of a program had fallen into a malaise under his predecessor, Mike White. Consider this, folks: this is the first time that the Gators have won 30+ games since the 2013-2014 campaign, which was the penultimate season under (former HC) Billy Donovan, the last in a run of four successive trips to at least the regional finals.
From a betting perspective, Florida comes into this Sweet Sixteen affair at 32-4 straight-up but have been one the most rewarding teams against the spread, posting a profitable 27-10 mark in that regard. That equates to a healthy net profit of 16.82 units, folks. Despite failing to cover each of their first two games in this dance, they had covered TWELVE of their previous thirteen outings prior to the release of the bracket and have manufactured three different stretches of 6+ covers. All-time, the Gators are marking their twenty-fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (50-22 SU), advancing to twelve Sweet Sixteens, nine Elite Eights, and five Final Fours, with those two aforementioned National Championships coming seventeen years ago. Looking at this particular matchup, the reptiles have crossed paths with Maryland on just three occasions (1-2 SU), none coming in the NCAA Tournament, with the most recent encounter coming back in 2021, a narrow 70-68 loss at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. With that being said, the public doesn’t seem to care much about this lack of history, as a commanding 76% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing Florida, while an even larger share of the total volume of money being wagered is riding with the outfit from Gainesville. Looking ahead, if the Gators manage to prove victorious once again, then they will face the winner of (3 Seed) Texas Tech and fellow SEC denizen, (10 Seed) Arkansas in Saturday’s Regional Final. The reptiles are 2-1 in three all-time meetings with the Red Raiders, while being very familiar with the Razorbacks, besting them in a 71-63 affair back on January 11th, where their smothering defense held the home side to 30.0% shooting while the triumvirate of Clayton, Martin, and Richard combined for thirty-eight points.
Meanwhile, there is another species of reptile on the rise in the big dance, as Maryland (27-8, 14-6 in BIG 10) find themselves in their first Sweet Sixteen since 2016. In fact, this is only the second time that the Terrapins have advanced past the opening weekend of NCAA Tournament since 2003, which was a year after winning the program’s first and only National Championship under the leadership of (longtime Head Coach) Gary Williams. Since then, they gone dancing ten times only to make it no further than second round as Williams’ tenure gave way to (former HC) Mark Turgeon, before his successor was eventually replaced by their current leading man, Kevin Willard. It has been an interesting ride for the 49-year-old, who after spending twelve years at Seton Hall consisting of five tourney appearances and a Big East Championship in 2019-2020, made the move to College Park to rebuild a program that fell on hard times under his predecessor. With that being said, this was by no means a quick fix for Willard, who in his first two years on the job went 38-30 overall, including 18-22 in conference play, though did take them to the second round of the 2023 tourney where they were obliterated by top-seeded Alabama. Despite coming into this current campaign unranked in the AP Poll, a 14-6 run through the BIG 10 vaulted them to as high as eleventh in the rankings, due in large part to a strong starting five that has been strong on both ends of the hardwood. Maryland ranks twenty-fourth overall in points for (81.4) and fortieth in points against (66.6), shooting 37.5% from beyond the arc (27th Overall) and relinquishing 30.2% from that range (18th Overall). The key to their success has been successfully recruiting in their own backyard, which admittedly had been an issue for the previous regimes. Willard has struck gold with (Sophomore Guard) Rodney Rice and (Freshman Center) Derik Queen, who have played major roles in the program’s resurgence; Rice, ranked fifty-sixth in the RCSI Top-100 of 2022, serves as one half of a dead-eye backcourt of shooters, averaging 13.9 points and 2.1 assists with a 37.3% success rate from downtown, while Queen (pictured below), ranked fourteenth in the 2024 RCSI, has been nothing short of impressive with 16.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks this season. The big fella played the role of hero in Sunday’s dramatic 72-71 victory over (12 Seed) Colorado State, fueling a late comeback before banking in a driving jumper fading to his left as time expired. Queen finished with a team-high seventeen points on 7-of-12 shooting (58.3%), with six rebounds and a pair of blocks, while Rice added sixteen points of his own with three of his team’s ten treys. Despite shooting a meager 41.9% overall from the field, Willard’s troops made up for it by netting 10-of-24 from three (41.7%) for a +15 advantage on that front, which proved to be the difference in the affair.
From a betting perspective, Maryland comes into their first Regional Semifinal in nine years at 27-8 straight-up but have netted a marginal profit against the spread (18-16-1), equating to a return of 1.64 units. This is a team has been a rewarding play for over a month now, covering seven of their last eleven games since February 13th, while splitting their two tourney outings thus far. It should be noted that the Terrapins have also been profitable as an underdog, posting a 4-2 record versus the spread when receiving points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a program that is making their thirty-first appearance in the NCAA Tournament (46-29 SU), including fifteen Sweet Sixteens, four Elite Eights, and two Final Fours, with that lone National Title coming in 2002. As for Willard, he is making his seventh trip to the big dance, though this is the first time that he has led his charges to this point. Looking at this particular matchup, the Terps are 2-1 SU versus Florida, with tonight’s affair marking the first time that these schools have ever crossed paths in the NCAA Tournament. As we touched upon earlier, the public clearly thinks that facing the West Region’s top seed will be a bridge too far for this team, who have reached this round after facing the thirteen and twelve seeds respectively, barely surviving the latter. As such, roughly 24% of all wagers placed upon the spread are favoring the turtles, while an even smaller share of all money being wagered thus far has followed suit to College Park (14%). Looking ahead, if Maryland do manage to advance to their first Regional Final since their magical run in 2002, then they will face the winner of Arkansas and Texas Tech. For enquiring minds, they are 2-1 against the former and 1-1 versus the latter, though have never faced either opponent in the big dance.