5:05 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Auburn -4.5, Total: 147.5
With the 2025 NCAA Tournament largely playing out to form, the last two tickets to San Antonio will be punched this evening, as the (1 Seed) Auburn Tigers battle the (2 Seed) Michigan State Spartans in what is sure to be a veritable bloodbath in this South Regional Final from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. Standing one win away from their first Final Four since 2019, this current tourney run feels like one that has been a long time coming for Auburn (31-5, 15-3 in SEC), who are making good on their potential after a string of premature exits. Indeed, (Head Coach) Bruce Pearl revived a program that had long lived in the shadow of the counterparts on the gridiron, missing THIRTEEN consecutive big dances before eventually leading War Eagle to their first National Semifinal in school history. However, instead of building upon that momentum, the energetic 65-year-old’s plans were interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which canceled the 2020 tourney altogether and would wreak havoc upon the rosters of many teams as the Transfer Portal was born. Following a disappointing 13-14 campaign, Pearl would take his Tigers dancing in each of the each of the four following seasons, though this most recent one is the first to see them advance past the opening weekend. So, what has changed on the Plains, you ask? Well, this is simply a case of a veteran team that has learned and grown from their previous experiences. Armed with a rotation consisting of six seniors, Auburn are arguably the most experienced team left in this tournament, with four different players averaging in double-figure points, led by (National Player of the Year finalist) Johni Broome. The big fella who transferred from Morehead State three years ago has really developed into a force on both ends of the hardwood, utilizing his athletic 6’10” 235-pound frame to lead the team in scoring (18.5), while pacing the SEC in both rebounds (10.8) and blocks (2.1). Broome (pictured below) was relatively quiet on the offensive end through the first two rounds of the tourney (22 points on 9-of-22 FG), but that all changed with Friday night’s 78-65 romp over (5 Seed) Michigan. Clinging to a 30-28 lead in a very defensive first half, he and his teammates put their foot on the gas post intermission, outscoring the Wolverines 48-36 the rest of the way due in large part to a 39-17 run over the 12:30. In a contest in which both sides shot below 40.0% from the field, Pearl’s troops made the difference in three areas. First, they were +15 from beyond the arc despite shooting a poor 28.6% on that front. Second, they attempted a dozen more field goals altogether thanks to a plethora of second-chance opportunities via NINETEEN offensive rebounds, battering their adversary 48-33 on both ends of the glass. Lastly, despite both teams committing fifteen turnovers apiece, the Tigers were the ones to benefit the most, posting a 23-13 edge in points from. Broome was a wrecking ball on both ends, folks, totaling twenty-two points and sixteen rebounds, manhandling Michigan on the offensive glass with NINE such boards. Fellow senior, Denver Jones scored twenty points of his own, including half of his team’s eight treys, while (Freshman Guard) Tahaad Pettiford erupted off the bench for another twenty points, along with three assists, a steal, and a block.
From a betting perspective, Auburn comes into their third-ever Regional Final at 31-5 straight-up, though have been marginally rewarding against the spread with a 19-16-1 ledger on that front. This is a team that had been on a season-worst stretch of five consecutive non-covers, though it appears that they have snapped out of it, beating the spread in each of their last two outings, including that aforementioned triumph over Michigan (-8.5). War Eagle has been favored in all but three games this year, posting a 17-15-1 mark versus the spread when favored by the oddsmakers, including 2-2 when laying no more than 4.5 points. All-time, this is a program that is making only their fourteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (22-13 SU), with half of them coming in the last eight years alone, advancing to six Sweet Sixteens, and as we stated earlier, three Elite Eights, along with one Final Four. As for Pearl, the 4-time SEC Coach of the Year is making his fourteenth trip to the big dance with his third different school (Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Tennessee). Looking at this particular matchup, Auburn and Michigan State have only met once on the hardwood. With that being said, Pearl has crossed paths with his counterpart, Tom Izzo (more on him in a bit), crossing paths in the 2010 Elite Eight when the former was coaching the Volunteers, which was decided by the narrowest of margins (69-70). The public seems to be somewhat torn in this matchup, with roughly 54% of all wagers riding with the Tigers, though it should be noted that a commanding 78% of all money being wagered on this evening’s spread has followed suit, which suggests that there are a number of individuals betting with confidence. Looking ahead, if Auburn do manage to advance to their second-ever Final Four, then they will face the winner of the West Regional Final between (1 Seed) Florida and (3 Seed) Texas Tech. As fellow members of the SEC, they have 63-66 all-time versus the Gators, including a 90-81 loss at home back on February 8th in which War Eagle could not slow down their adversary’s attack; Broome & Co shipped 48.4% shooting, were -18 beyond the arc, and allowed twenty-two assists on the day. As for their history with the Red Raiders, they have split four encounters.
Meanwhile, the more things change the more they stay the same for Michigan State (30-6, 17-3 in BIG 10), who are in the midst of yet another lengthy run in the NCAA Tournament. Then again, this is what we’ve come to expect from the charges of the legendary (Head Coach) Tom Izzo, who has long been one of the true maestros of the big dance. Now in his THIRTIETH season in East Lansing, Izzo (pictured below) is making his TWENTY-SEVENTH trip to the tourney, where he owns a stellar 59-25 record (.702), with EIGHT Final Fours and a National Championship back in 2000, the second in school history. Of course, the Spartans have rarely had to wait long between appearing in a National Semifinal, as the 70-year-old has never gone more than six years without reaching that particular stage of the dance. So, what do we make his troops this time around, you ask? Well, in contrast to their adversary this evening, this isn’t a very experienced group, with a rotation consisting of just three seniors, but what they do have is DEPTH. Simply put, this is the deepest team left in the tourney, folks, with TEN different players logging at least twelve minutes per contest and none surpassing 28:00. Armed with guards, athletic wings, and plenty of bigs to defend the paint and clean the glass, Izzo has a little bit of everything with this unit, allowing him the luxury of adapting to his opponent. With that being said, the biggest benefit of having such a deep team is that they can defend relentlessly for forty minutes. On the season, Michigan State allowed 67.1 points per game (44th Overall) on 40.4% shooting from the field (24th Overall), including a scant 28.0% from beyond the arc (2nd Overall), all the while doing their typical work on the glass, outrebounding opponents by a margin of 9.1 boards. And it was that defensive prowess that earned them a 73-70 victory over (6 Seed) Ole Miss in Friday night’s Regional Semifinal. The Spartans relegated a red-hot Rebels side that had averaged 81.0 points on 51.4% shooting overall and a blistering 48.7% from downtown in their first two games of the tourney, to a mediocre 40.6% shooting from the field, thanks in large part slowing the pace to a crawl. With that in mind, the denizens of the BIG 10 were far more efficient in shooting 50.0% overall and ultimately won this one at the charity stripe, where they calmly knocked down 19-of-22 attempts (86.4%), parlaying to a +10 advantage on that front. This made up for deficits from downtown (-9), points via turnovers (-3), fast break points (-8), and offensive rebounds (-7), which allowed Mississippi to attempt SIXTEEN more field goals. Four different players scored in double-figures for MSU, led by (Freshman Guard) Jase Richardson (son of Jason) with twenty points, six rebounds, and 4-of-6 shooting from three (66.7%), while (Sophomore Forward) Coen Carr dropped fifteen points and (Senior Guard) Jaden Akins adding thirteen of his own.
From a betting perspective, Michigan State comes into their first Elite Eight in six years at 30-6 straight-up but have also been one of the most rewarding teams in this tourney, posting a 24-11-1 ledger against the spread. This is a team that has covered ten of its last twelve outings overall, though they just narrowly missed the cover as 3.5-point favorites in that aforementioned win over Ole Miss. The Spartans are receiving points from the oddsmakers tonight for the seventh time this season, and here is why that is important, folks: Izzo’s troops are a stellar 5-1-1 versus the spread as underdogs this season, with six consecutive games unbeaten ATS when in that role. All-time, this is a program that is a true blueblood in the NCAA Tournament where they are making their thirty-eighth appearance, including twenty-two Sweet Sixteens, fifteen Elite Eights, and ten Final Fours, with two National Championships (1979 and 2000). That pedigree appears to be pulling the public apart, with approximately 46% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread donning that forest green, though as we stated earlier, the overall money being wagered thus far is telling a VERY different story with only 22% of the money backing Sparty. If Michigan State does manage to advance to yet another Final Four, then they will meet the winner from today’s West Regional Final between Florida and Texas Tech. Izzo and the Spartans have fond memories against the Gators, whom they own a 5-3 all-time record against on the hardwood, including 2-0 in the big dance, none greater than an 89-76 romp in the 2000 National Championship Game. As for the Red Raiders, they have crossed paths once in the tourney, a 61-51 loss in the 2019 Final Four.