8:49 PM EST, TBS/TruTV – Spread: Duke -7.5, Total: 174.5
The 2025 NCAA Tournament marches onward to the Elite Eight, where powerhouses collide as the (1 Seed) Duke Blue Devils face off against the prolific (2 Seed) Alabama Crimson Tide in this East Regional Final from Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The number one overall seed entering the big dance, Duke (34-3, 19-1 in ACC) is living up to their billing, folks, as the lone representative of the Atlantic Coast Conference at this point. Now in his third season as the program’s leading man, (Head Coach) Jon Scheyer has presided over what for all intents and purposes has been the most dominant team in the country. How good have the Blue Devils been this season, you ask? Well, they’ve beaten their opponents by an average margin of 21.1 points per game, with just seven contests decided by single digits. Scheyer has assembled a deep rotation featuring a bevy of highly touted recruits, headlined of course by the nation’s top freshman (and probable National Player of the Year) Cooper Flagg. Just like the team he plays for, Flagg (pictured below) has certainly lived up to the hype surrounding his arrival in Durham, leading the group in points (19.0), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.3), steals (1.4), and blocks (1.3), proving to be a legitimate menace at both ends of the hardwood. After suffering a sprained ankle that had sidelined him for the final two games of the ACC Tournament (which the Devils still managed to win, by the way), there was some concern over his fitness for the NCAA Tournament, though that all seems to be much ado about nothing. Through three games in this dance, Flagg has been progressively more productive, posting 20.7 points on 47.6% shooting from the field, including 41.7% from beyond the arc, with 7.3 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 blocks. Thursday night’s 100-93 victory over (4 Seed) Arizona saw the freshman erupt for thirty points on 9-of-19 shooting (47.4%), including 3-of-5 from downtown (60.0%), with six rebounds, seven assists, three blocks, and a steal. While Duke has been heralded as one of the stingiest defensive teams in this country, shipping just 62.5 points per game (7th Overall), this affair with the Wildcats, a rematch of the 2001 National Title Game, was all about their offensive prowess. Scheyer’s troops shot a ridiculous 60.0% from the field, including 11-of-19 from three (57.9%), while netting 23-of-27 free-throws (85.2%), dishing out twenty assists in comparison to committing ten turnovers. Three other starters scored in double figures, including (fellow Freshman) Kon Knueppel and (Tulane transfer) Sion James added twenty and sixteen respectively, with (7’2″ Sudan international) Khaman Maluach adding thirteen points, six boards and four blocks. That victory marked the ninth time that the Devils have played a tournament game in New Jersey, if you couldn’t guess, it was their ninth victory in such outings.
From a betting perspective, Duke comes into a second straight Regional Semifinal at 34-3 straight-up, but they have also been a rather rewarding side against the spread as well (24-13) resulting in a net profit of +7.18 units. This is a team that has been favored in all but one game this season, which was ironically their first meeting with Arizona back on November 22nd (+1.5). The Blue Devils have split their last six outings versus the spread, though it should be noted that that was coming off the heels of a streak of SEVEN consecutive covers, five of which featured a spread of 14+ points. All-time, this is a program that is no stranger to this stage of the big dance, making their FORTY-SEVENTH appearance in the NCAA Tournament (125-41 SU), including THIRTY-FOUR Sweet Sixteens, TWENTY-FOUR Elite Eights, and SEVENTEEN Final Fours, with FIVE National Championships to their credit. Scheyer was a fixture on their 2009-2010 national title team, while serving as an assistant coach for the 2014-2015 side that stands as the school’s most recent natty. Looking at this particular matchup, the Devils have never lost in seven meetings with Alabama, though their most recent came eleven years ago, a 74-64 victory at Madison Square Garden, in which the victors came into the tilt as 9.5-point underdogs. The public appears to be thinking that tonight’s spread is too wide for these two sides, as roughly 39% of all wagers placed are following Flagg & Co, while an even smaller share of the total money being wagered is draped in royal blue (34%). Looking ahead, if Duke advances to their eighteenth Final Four, then they will face the winner of the Midwest Regional Final between (1 Seed) Houston and (2 Seed) Tennessee. The Blue Devils are a combined 7-3 against the Cougars and Volunteers, eliminating the former in last year’s Sweet Sixteen (54-51) twelve months after getting bounced by the latter in the second round of the 2023 tourney (65-52).
Meanwhile, standing in their way is Alabama (28-8, 13-5 in SEC), who are coming off one of the most prolific offensive performances in recent NCAA Tournament history. The Crimson Tide erupted for 113 points in Thursday night’s romp over (6 Seed) BYU, largely on the strength of their marksmanship from the perimeter, where they knocked down an NCAA tourney record TWENTY-FIVE three-pointers. There is making it rain and then there was the performance that (Head Coach) Nate Oats’ troops authored; the Tide netted 25-of-51 attempts (49.0%) from beyond the arc, outscoring the Cougars by a staggering FIFTY-SEVEN points in that department. Three different players drained 5+ treys, though none was more industrious than (Senior Guard) Mark Sears, who absolutely torched Brigham Young to the tune of TEN threes on sixteen attempts (62.5%), resulting in thirty-four points on the night. In fact, he became the first player in SEC history to post thirty points and eight assists in the NCAA Tournament game since dimes became an official statistic in 1984. (South Florida transfer) Chris Youngblood and (Sophomore Guard) Aden Holloway combined for forty-two points and 11-of-24 shooting from long range (45.8%). ‘Bama also found time to step to the charity stripe with 18-of-21 free-throws, while dishing out a healthy twenty-seven assists, which was one shy of matching their season-high set against Mississippi back in late February. Taking all this into account, this kind of performance should really come as to no surprise to anyone that has paid attention to Oats & Co this season. Alabama is the highest-scoring team in the country at a robust 91.4 points per contest, ranking eighth overall in threes attempted (29.8) and eleventh in makes (10.6), all the while handing out 17.3 assists (10th Overall). Six different players average in in double-figures scoring, led by Sears (pictured below) at 19.0 points on 40.9% shooting from the field, including 34.8% from deep, 3.0 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 0.9 steals. The key with the Crimson Tide is tempo, as they are right at home operating at a breakneck pace, getting up as many shots as possible to overwhelm their opponents. They rank ninth in field goal attempts per game (64.1), which is just under five more than the team that they will be facing off against tonight. However, their approach does have a habit of turning games into shootouts, which can be akin to playing with fire against strong offensive sides; they’ve shipped 81.2 points per contest (356th Overall), which is 18.7 points than the Blue Devils, who as we touched upon earlier, are on the finest defensive groups in the nation.
From a betting perspective, Alabama come into their second consecutive Elite Eight at 28-8 straight-up, but they too have netted a positive return against the spread (21-15), resulting in a profit of +3.36. This is a team that has covered seven of their last ten games overall, including each of their last two in the tourney, easily clearing the line against BYU (-4.5). With that being said, they’re underdogs tonight, which is notable given that the Crimson Tide have received points from the oddsmakers on seven previous occasions this season (7-2 ATS), proving to be more than a solid wager in such cases. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (32-25 SU), including twelve Sweet Sixteens, Three Elite Eights, and one Final Four, which came last March. As for Oats, he is coaching in his eighth big dance, with three coming during his tenure at Buffalo (2016, 2017, 2018) and each of the last five with ‘Bama (2021-2025). As we stated earlier, the public is bullish on the Tide and the points, with approximately 61% of all wagers placed upon the side clad in crimson, while an even larger share of all the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit to Tuscaloosa (66%). Looking ahead, if Alabama do manage to advance to a second consecutive National Semifinal, then they will be pitted against either or Houston or Tennessee. For inquiring minds, they are 4-3 in seven all-time encounters with the Cougars, which includes an 85-80 victory back in late November, while having a long history with the Vols, whom they own a 62-51 edge over in a series that dates back to the early 1920s, the most recent being a narrow 79-76 loss at Knoxville on March 1st.