10:00 PM EST, TNT/MAX – Spread: Nuggets -3.5, Total: 232.5
As March Madness reaches its conclusion, the NBA regular season is well into its final stretch with playoff positioning up for grabs, which brings us to Ball Arena where the Denver Nuggets battle the Minnesota Timberwolves in a rematch of last year’s epic Western Conference Semifinals. While this season has seen the Timberwolves (43-32, 7th in Western Conference) take a step back after altering the chemistry of their rotation with a seismic offseason trade, it appears that they have rounded into the form that saw them advance to their second Western Conference Finals in franchise history. After a dismal 1-4 stretch following the All-Star Break, Minnesota has won ELEVEN of their last fourteen contests, with nine of them coming by no less than fourteen points. Indeed, (Head Coach) Chris Finch has seen his troops find their shooting touch in what has easily been their most impressive run of the campaign from an offensive point of view; the Wolves are averaging a robust 121.7 points on 49.7% shooting from the field, including 40.4% from beyond the arc, all the while dishing out a very healthy 28.9 assists. Furthermore, they’ve been outscoring their adversaries by a margin of 12.6 from downtown, while creating opportunities for themselves by forcing 15.0 turnovers per game. Needless to say, this is a marked improvement from a group that has been searching for an offensive identity after the departure of (All-Star big man) Karl-Anthony Towns, whose perimeter shooting creating valuable spacing and mismatches. (Veterans) Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo initially appeared to be ill-fitting pieces in return, but have since grown into valuable playmakers, combining for 8.5 assists per outing, which has in turn alleviated some of the burden from (All-NBA Guard) Anthony Edwards. After rising to stardom last season, Edwards (pictured below) has evolved his game as well, becoming a far more prominent option from deep without Towns; the 23-year-old is attempting an average of 10.1 treys and netting an efficient 39.5% of them, which are both career-highs en route to scoring a personal-best 27.2 points per game. Both he and Randle were major components of their wild comeback win over the Pistons on Sunday, which was unfortunately for all the wrong reasons. After trailing by as many as sixteen points in the first period, tempers flared following a hard foul on (reigning Sixth Man of the Year) Naz Reid, leading to a brawl between the two sides that ultimately saw SEVEN individuals ejected, including both Reid and DiVincenzo. However, the hosts still had plenty of fight left in them as they slowly clawed back into the contest, as Edwards drilled a triple midway through a momentum changing stanza that led to their first lead of the night. The Timberwolves outscored the visitors 38-23 in the third quarter, shooting 14-of-26 from the field (53.8%), with twenty points courtesy of Edwards, who knocked down 4-of-7 attempts from three (57.1%). When it was all said and done, the 23-year-old totaled twenty-five points, six rebounds, four assists, and two blocks, while Randle led the team with twenty-six points, along with eight boards, five dimes, and a block of his own. (Veteran Center) Rudy Gobert made waves with nineteen points and TWENTY-FIVE rebounds (10 offensive), while (ageless Point Guard) Mike Conley added seventeen points in the victory.
From a betting perspective, the Timberwolves come into this playoff rematch at 43-32 straight-up, but they have NOT been a rewarding side against the spread, posting a 35-39-1 ledger leading to a net loss of 7.18 units thus far. With that being said, as they have straightened things out of late, their success versus the spread has followed suit with NINE covers during this current 11-3 stretch, including three of their last four outings. Finch’s troops have been a solid play of late when receiving a relatively paltry number of points from the oddsmakers, which leads us to this nugget (no pun intended): these Wolves are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as dogs of 0.5-4.5 points, which is the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, Minnesota has won FIVE straight meetings with the Nuggets (4-1 ATS), including each of their previous three encounters this season. After securing a narrow 119-116 triumph at Target Center back on November 1st, Finch’s charges handled Denver with surprising ease over the next two battles, hammering them 133-104 affair in Minneapolis before earning a 115-95 victory at Ball Arena on March 12th. The theme in these contests has been the Wolves’ rampant attack, which has really given their opponent fits; Edwards & Co have shot 51.9% from the field and 43.8% from beyond the arc, with a whopping 34.3 assists. Furthermore, they’ve outscored the 2022-2023 NBA Champions by a margin of 19.8 points per game from three this season. Getting back to Edwards, he has enjoyed these clashes, logging 30.7 points on 51.5% shooting overall and 15-of-34 from downtown (44.1%), along with 3.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. With that being said, the public doesn’t appear to be very bullish on the Wolves despite their recent ownership of Denver, with approximately 35% of all wagers placed upon the spread residing in Minneapolis. However, it should be noted that the overall money being wagered is far more level, with roughly 47% in favor of Finch & Co. On the injury front, (Rookie Guard) Terrence Shannon Jr. is likely to miss a third straight game due to a nagging hamstring, while both Reid and DiVincenzo have since been suspended one game apiece following their respective roles in Sunday’s brawl with the Pistons. Looking ahead, Minnesota remains just a half-game behind the Warriors for the sixth seed out West, which would afford them the luxury of clearing the play-in tournament. Including tonight, they have seven games left in the regular season, with this trip to Denver kicking off a 5-game road trip that will send them to Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Memphis before finally returning home.
Meanwhile, as their division rivals have been ascending since the All-Star Break, it has been a very different story for the Nuggets (47-28, 3rd in Western Conference), who simply haven’t been in the best form. Prior to the league’s midseason respite, it appeared that Denver was well on their way to launching an offensive to grasp the top seed in the West, ending the first half of the campaign on an 8-game win streak. However, since then they have gone just 11-9, a stretch in which they have outscored the opposition by a scant 0.1 points per contest, with (Head Coach) Mike Malone consistently lamenting the performance of his troops on the defensive end of the hardwood. Exploitation on this end has been the problem, folks, with Mile High residents shipping an average of 119.0 points on 47.6% shooting from the field and 37.5% from beyond the arc, along with 28.1 assists. All this has done is place more pressure on their two stars, (perennial All-NBA Center) Nikola Jokic and (playoff assassin) Jamal Murray to perform at a high level. Winner of three of the last four MVP awards, Jokic (pictured below) has carried an even larger load than before, posting a career-high 29.3 points on 57.4% shooting from the floor, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.2 assists, potentially making him the first non-Guard to ever average a triple-double for the whole season. Coincidentally, this has gone hand-in-hand with the big Serbian playing the most minutes in his career (36.3). As for Murray (pictured below alongside Jokic), the sharpshooter often serves as the barometer for his team’s success. Simply put, when the 28-year-old has been healthy and in shape, the Nuggets have been a championship contender, as evidenced by his eye-opening run through the 2023 NBA Playoffs where he became the fifth player to ever record multiple 50-point games in the same postseason. However, injuries have dogged him throughout his career, with that currently being the case; Malone has listed him as day-to-day with a tender hamstring that caused him to miss Friday night’s 129-93 drubbing of the lowly Jazz. Even without their resident sniper, this one was ALL Nuggets, as the hosts shot a blistering 57.8% from the field, including 11-of-29 from downtown (37.9%), along with 22-of-28 from the charity stripe, and dishing out a season-high THIRTY-EIGHT assists. Ironically, this was arguably Denver’s finest defensive performance of the campaign too, with highs in both steals (12) and blocks (13) en route to relegating Utah to a mere 35.5% shooting, including 7-of-40 from three (17.5%). Six different players scored in double-figures, led by Jokic with twenty-seven points, fourteen rebounds, six assists, and four steals, while (Swingman) Michael Porter Jr. added twenty points, four boards, and four assists, with (young Guard) Christian Braun chipping in with sixteen points. Oh, and (veteran Guard) Russell Westbrook, now with his SIXTH team in the last seven years, brought a wealth of energy off the bench with seventeen points, seven assists, and three steals.
From a betting perspective, the Nuggets come into this tilt at 47-28 straight-up, though they too have been less-rewarding against the spread, remarkably posting an identical 35-39-1 ledger on that front, resulting in a net loss of 7.18 units. The proverbial well has really dried up of late with covers few and far between, for since the All-Star Break, this is a team that has covered just SIX of their last twenty games overall, with ZERO back-to-back covers since February 12th. Furthermore, Denver has failed to four in a row when favored by 0.5-4.5 points, while authoring an identical mark in their last four outings when coming off a SU win of 10+ points, with both trends relevant tonight. As we covered earlier, this matchup with the Timberwolves has become a very difficult one for Malone’s troops, who have struggled with their opponent’s length and athleticism on both ends of the hardwood. Again, they’re inability to deter the perimeter shooting of Minnesota was expounded upon earlier, but as was the case in that aforementioned Western Conference Final, their own attack has oftentimes been disrupted, even with Jokic pulling the strings. In those three defeats, the Nuggets have averaged just 105.0 points on 44.6% shooting from the field, including a pedestrian 30.9% from downtown, with 15.0 turnovers in comparison to dishing out 27.3 assists. Sure, they’ve been very active on the offensive glass (14.3), but that is also a function of missing so many shots. In terms of the Joker and his individual success, it has been interesting to see him forced into becoming more of a scorer at the expense of his other qualities, particularly his rebounding and playmaking. Case in point: his 6.7 rebounds in these affairs are his second-lowest figure against any such opponent, while his 9.3 assists are one eleven instances where an adversary has relegated him below double-digit dimes. The Wolves’ length and athleticism has been even more disruptive for Murray, who needs space to truly effective. In these three encounters, he has been held to 14.3 points on just 42.1% shooting and 4-of-13 from three (30.8%), with 3.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. However, that hasn’t swayed the public’s faith in the Nuggets, who command roughly 65% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread, with a smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered following suit (53%). On the injury front, we touched upon the situation with Murray, but Jokic (ankle) has also landed on the injury report along with (veteran Forward) Aaron Gordon (calf) and Braun (foot) as well, with all three players listed as day-to-day. Clearly, Malone is dabbling in some load management before the playoffs begin. Looking ahead, Denver currently sits in third place out West, trailing Houston by 1.5 games and leading Los Angeles (Lakers) by one full game in the standings with seven games remaining. There figures to be opportunity to move (or down) the pecking order with battles against the Warriors, Grizzlies, and Rockets looming.