6:09 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Florida -2.5, Total: 160.5
The 2025 NCAA Tournament has reached its penultimate stage, with the first of today’s two National Semifinals kicking off in San Antonio as the one seed in the South, the Auburn Tigers, renew acquaintances with the one seed in the West, the Florida Gators in this all-SEC affair. For just the second time in the history of this grand tournament, all four one seeds have reached the Final Four, making it clear that these teams were all deserving of their seeding by the Selection Committe. We’ll begin with Auburn (32-5, 15-3 in SEC), the top overall seed in the tournament, who are making what is just their second trip to this stage of the big dance and their first since 2019. As we’ve stated in previous columns, this tourney run feels like a case of natural progression for War Eagle, who have matured following back-to-back premature exits. (Head Coach) Bruce Pearl has assembled a veteran team that has learned and grown from their previous experiences, armed with a rotation consisting of six seniors, serving as arguably the most experienced team left in this tournament. Four different players average in double-figure points, but (National Player of the Year finalist) Johni Broome has clearly been the most notable of the group; the big fella who transferred from Morehead State three years ago has really developed into a force on both ends of the hardwood, utilizing his athletic 6’10” 235-pound frame to lead the team in scoring (18.5), while pacing the SEC in both rebounds (10.8) and blocks (2.1). After erupting for twenty-two points and six rebounds (9 offensive!) in Friday’s 78-65 romp over (5 Seed) Michigan, Broome enjoyed what could very well have been his moment of the tourney. Against (2 Seed) Michigan State, he pummeled the Spartans to the tune of twenty-five points (10-of-13 FG) and fourteen rebounds, though would leave the contest for a bit after suffering what appeared to be knocks to his ankle and elbow. However, after a brief stint in the locker room, Broome would return to the hardwood and knock down a triumphant three-pointer with less than five minutes left to play, sending his team to San Antonio. The Tigers turned this one in their favor on the strength of a dominant 17-0 run en route to the 70-64 victory. Auburn shot just 42.6% overall but shipped a scant 34.4% shooting the other way, while doing a much better job of taking care of the rock with just six turnovers after committing fifteen versus the Wolverines. Apart from Broome’s dominance, it was fairly tough sledding for his teammates, with (Freshman Guard) Tahaad Pettiford the only other Tiger to score in double-figures. Both he and (Senior Guard) Chad Baker-Mazara netted a pair of treys, with the latter dishing out a team-high five assists.
From a betting perspective, Auburn comes into this National Final at 32-5 straight-up, though they have been a rewarding side against the spread to boot, posting a 21-16 mark on that front, equating to a net profit of +4.46 units. This is a team has been characterized by streaks in terms of covering the spread, with multiple stretches of 3+ wins and 3+ losses ATS. They’re clearly in the midst of the former, with three consecutive covers coming in this dance, including that aforementioned triumph over Michigan State in which they were favored by 5.5 points. With that being said, War Eagle is RECEIVING points from the oddsmakers this evening, which has been something of a rarity this season; these cats have been betting underdogs on just three occasions, owning a 2-1 record both SU and ATS in such contests. All-time, this is a program that is making only their fourteenth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (23-13 SU), with half of them coming in the last eight years alone, advancing to six Sweet Sixteens, three Elite Eights, and as we stated earlier, their second-ever Final Four. As for Pearl, the 4-time SEC Coach of the Year is making his fourteenth trip to the big dance with his third different school (Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Tennessee). Looking at this particular matchup, Auburn trails Florida 63-66 in the all-time series, with the two schools alternating wins and losses over the course of seven meetings. This is however, the first time that these programs have ever crossed paths in the big dance. When they encountered each other back on February 8th, a 90-81 defeat at home, the Tigers were removed from the perch atop the rankings in large part to their inability to slow down the Gators’ attack. Pearl was left frustrated as his charges trailed by as many as twenty-one points, shipping 48.4% shooting from the field, including 13-of-33 from beyond the arc (39.4%) where they were outscored by eighteen points, while getting run over in transition to boot (14-3). Broome totaled eighteen points on 8-of-19 shooting (42.1%) along with eleven rebounds, six assists, and a pair of blocks, while (Georgia Tech transfer) Miles Kelly led the team with twenty-points, and Pettiford adding fourteen off the bench. The public seems to remember that matchup rather well, with roughly 34% of all wagers placed upon the spread siding with War Eagle, while an even smaller percentage of the total sum of money changing hands has followed suit to the plains (29%). On the injury front, keep an eye on Broome, who has been limited throughout the week of practice, though all indications from Pearl suggest that the First Team All-American will be a full go for tonight’s affair. Looking ahead, if the Tigers do manage to get payback tonight in San Antonio, then they will advance to Monday night’s National Final, their first in program history, where they will face the winner of Duke and Houston. For inquiring minds, they have NEVER beaten the Blue Devils in five meetings, including an 84-78 tilt from back on December 4th, while posting a 2-7 ledger against the Cougars, whom they bested in a 74-69 showdown on November 9th.
Meanwhile, those who felt that Florida (34-4, 14-4 in SEC) was the favorite to win this tournament must be feeling good about themselves as the champions of the SEC Tournament have successfully carried that momentum from one dance to another. Then again, the Gators have been on a lengthy run for some time now; following a 20-point defeat in Knoxville, (Head Coach) Todd Golden’s troops have lost just once in the seventeen games since then, besting their opponents by an average margin of 13.0 points per game on 48.7% shooting from the field, including 38.5% from beyond the arc, with 16.6 assists in comparison to committing just 9.9 assists. Experienced backcourts are often cited as a vital ingredient for success in the tournament, and with that in mind, these rowdy reptiles have that commodity in SPADES. Simply put, the senior triumvirate of Walter Clayton Jr, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard has been the primary catalyst in vaulting Florida to their first Final Four since 2014, combining for 45.9 points, 12.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 4.3 steals per game, with each of them netting at least 35.0% of their attempts from beyond the arc. As such, this is the third highest-scoring team in the country (85.4), though they have plenty of size as well, particularly around the rim where they also rank third overall in rebounding (41.9). After handling (4 Seed) Maryland in an 87-71 affair in the Sweet Sixteen, (3 Seed) Texas Tech proved to be a much more difficult opponent for Golden & Co, who were forced to rally back from a 75-66 deficit with just under three minutes remaining in the Regional Final. Thankfully, Clayton (pictured below) saved the day, knocking down a pair of late treys to retake the lead for good. The sharpshooter led the Gators with thirty points on an efficient 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%), including 3-of-8 from downtown (37.5%), along with a clutch 13-of-14 free-throws (92.9%), four assists, and a pair of blocks. The former Iona transfer wasn’t alone though, as (Sophomore Forward) Thomas Haugh was integral to the comeback, totaling twenty points and eleven rebounds off the bench, with two of his quartet of treys kicking off the late rally. With these teams drawing near level in so many statistical categories, the difference in this affair came from the charity stripe, where Florida calmly netted 25-of-27 free-throws (92.6%), while the Red Raiders could muster just 7-of-13 attempts for themselves, equating to an 18-point edge for the reptiles. This helped offset the Gators’ 5-22 deficit in points off turnovers.
From a betting perspective, Florida enters their first National Semifinal in over a decade with a 34-4 record straight-up, though they have been one of the most rewarding teams in the nation against the spread, posting a stellar 27-11 on that front, parlaying to a net profit of 16.82 units. Needless to say, if you’re probably a happy customer. With that being said, could it be that the oddsmakers have finally caught up to the Gators? After covering TWELVE out of thirteen contests, they have now failed to do so on three occasions during the big dance, including that aforementioned comeback against Texas Tech in which they were favored by 6.5 points. Furthermore, have struggled in this regard in the tourney, covering just one of their last six NCAA Tournament affairs, while going 1-4 ATS in their past five such contests as a favorite. However, there is good new here, folks, as Golden’s group is 8-1 ATS in their last nine outings following a non-cover, and a commanding 12-2 ATS over their past fourteen games when favored by 0.5-4.5 points, which is precisely the case tonight. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (52-22 SU), advancing to twelve Sweet Sixteens, ten Elite Eights, and six Final Fours, with two aforementioned National Championships to their credit (2006 and 2007). As for Golden, he is dancing for the third time with two schools (San Francisco), though this is by far and away the furthest that he has progressed. As we covered earlier, Florida and Auburn have traded victories over their last seven meetings, with the former owning a slight 66-63 edge in the all-time series between these schools. When they crossed paths earlier this season, that aforementioned 90-81 upset on the plains, the Gators’ offense was simply too much for the top-seeded Tigers to handle. In what was arguably their most impressive performance of the campaign, the visitors stormed into Auburn Arena, shooting 48.4% from the field en route to building a 21-point lead, with five different players scoring in double-figures. Clayton was sensational with nineteen points, six rebounds, and nine assists, with 4-of-8 shooting from three (50.0%). Haugh added sixteen points, nine boards, and three blocks off the bench, while (Australia international) Alex Condon contributed with seventeen points, ten rebounds, and four dimes. The betting public has clear memories of that one, folks, as roughly 66% of all wagers placed upon this evening’s spread are heading to the Swamp, with an even greater share following suit (71%). Looking ahead, if Florida manages to get the better of Auburn yet again, then they will be competing in their fourth-ever National Final. For those wondering, the Gators are 2-7 all-time against Duke and have never defeated Houston in two attempts, splitting two tourney affairs with the former, a 70-65 loss in the 1994 National Semifinal and an 87-78 victory in the 2000 Sweet Sixteen.