8:49 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Duke -4.5, Total: 136.5
The penultimate round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament comes to a close tonight in San Antonio as two more one seeds, the Duke Blue Devils and the Houston Cougars cross paths yet again in the big dance. For those concerned that the Duke (35-3, 19-1 in ACC) empire would collapse following the retirement of (Hall of Famer) Mike Krzyzewski, it appears that the program is in strong hands with (Head Coach) Jon Scheyer, who is on the verge of making the transition from national championship player to national championship coach. Indeed, after enjoying a stellar playing career in Durham that resulted in a national title in 2010, Scheyer joined Coach K’s staff as an assistant and worked his way down the bench, before being tabbed replaced the legend upon his exit two years ago. We like to speak of natural progression in this column, which is a path that Blue Devils are following; after getting bounced in the second round of the 2023 big dance, he led his troops to the Elite Eight of last year’s tourney before taking them at least one round further this Spring. Despite being a largely young team, these devils are littered with blue chip prospects, featuring eight different players ranked within the RSCI Top-100, chief among them being (Freshman Forward) Cooper Flagg. Simply put, the number one overall prospect in this year’s freshman class has been everything that the program could have hoped for and more, leading the team in several categories, including points (18.9), rebounds (7.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.4), and blocks (1.3), all the while posting stellar shooting splits of 48.3/37.4/83.4. After dropping thirty points on (4 Seed) Arizona in the Sweet Sixteen, Flagg (pictured below) was one of four different players to score in double-figures in his team’s 85-65 romp over (2 Seed) Alabama on Saturday night. Two days after the Crimson Tide erupted for 113 points and netted twenty-five treys, they were held to sixty-five points on 35.4% shooting, making just 8-of-32 threes in the process (25.0%). Duke had no such problems putting the ball through the nylon, shooting 53.6% themselves, including 6-of-13 from downtown (46.2%), with most of their damage coming in the paint (+24) on 53.8% shooting. Flagg totaled sixteen points on just 6-of-16 shooting (37.5%) but made up the relatively mediocre shooting with nine boards, three assists, and a block. (Fellow Freshman) Kon Kneuppel led the team with twenty-one points, five rebounds, five dimes, and three steals, while (Junior Guard) Tyrese Proctor contributed with seventeen points on 7-of-10 shooting (70.0%), five boards, and a pair of assists and steals apiece. As for the towering South Sudan international, Khaman Maluach, he was dominant around the rim, with fourteen points on a near-perfect 6-of-7 shooting (85.7%), nine rebounds, and two blocks.
From a betting perspective, Duke comes into yet another National Semifinal at 35-3 straight-up, but they have also been rather rewarding against the spread as well, posting a 25-13 mark on that front. This has been one of the most consistent teams in the country versus the spread, suffering back-to-back non-covers on just four occasions, while covering three of their four outings in the big dance, including that aforementioned romp over Alabama in which they were favored by 7.5 points. With so many blowout wins under their belt this season, the Blue Devils have been heavy favorites more often than not, though tonight’s showdown in San Antonio marks just the second time that they have been favored by 0.5-4.5 points; they are 1-1 ATS in such games, the first being a narrow 77-75 loss at Kansas back on November 26th, before besting Auburn in an 84-78 affair a week later. Furthermore, Scheyer’s troops have covered SIX consecutive contests played on Saturdays. All-time, this is a program that is no stranger to this stage of the big dance, making their FORTY-SEVENTH appearance in the NCAA Tournament (126-41 SU), including THIRTY-FOUR Sweet Sixteens, TWENTY-FOUR Elite Eights, and now EIGHTEEN Final Fours, with FIVE National Championships to their credit. Scheyer was a fixture on their 2009-2010 national title team, while serving as an assistant coach for the 2014-2015 side that stands as the school’s most recent natty. Looking at this particular matchup, the Devils are 1-0 all-time against Houston, which ironically came in last year’s Sweet Sixteen. That narrow 54-51 affair was nothing short of a defensive struggle, folks, as the two sides shot an identical 40.8% from the field and sub-40.0% on two-point field goals. However, Duke was the more efficient team offensively, owning a +12 edge from beyond the arc, while assisting on fourteen of their twenty field goals. Former stars, Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach (who has since transferred to Baylor), combined for thirty points, a dozen rebounds, and five assists, while Proctor, then lone returning member form that starting five, totaled nine points, four dimes, and three steals. As they have throughout the campaign, the public is rallying behind the Blue Devils, with roughly 77% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the ACC Champions, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered thus far following suit (67%). Looking ahead, if Duke proves victorious tonight, then they will be headed to their TWELFTH National Final, where they will face either Auburn or Florida. For those wondering, they have never lost to the Tigers in five meetings, including that aforementioned encounter from earlier this season, while posting a 7-2 ledger versus the Gators, splitting two tournament affairs along the way.
Meanwhile, the fourth and final one seed to comprise this Final Four is Houston (34-4, 19-1 in BIG XII), who are back in the National Semifinals after a 4-year wait. In many ways, this feels like a natural progression for a veteran group that have grown accustomed to making tournament runs under the guiding hand of (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson, who revived a program that had fell into irrelevance prior to his arrival in 2014. Over the last six tourneys, the Cougars have done no worse than advance to the Sweet Sixteen, which is coincidently where the music stopped in each of the past two dances. As is the case with their opponent tonight, this is one of, if not the toughest defensive team in the country, shipping a scant 58.3 points (1st Overall) on 38.2% shooting from the field (1st Overall), including 44.5% from within the arc (5th Overall) and 30.1% beyond it (15th Overall), while yielding 11.3 assists (89th Overall) in comparison to forcing 13.4 turnovers. Seniors and juniors make up the bulk of the rotation, led by the veteran backcourt of L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, and Milos Uzan, who combine for an average of 39.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 3.2 steals. The triumvirate played a major role in their team’s 69-50 blowout of (2 Seed) Tennessee in Sunday’s Regional Semifinal, an affair in which the BIG XII Champions led by as many as twenty-two points due in large part to that stifling defense. Houston relegated the Volunteers to 28.8% shooting on the day, including 5-of-29 from downtown (17.2%). Consider this, folks: Sampson’s troops were outscored by eleven points from the charity stripe and didn’t score a single point in transition but managed to manufacture fourteen more field goal attempts for themselves thanks to fourteen offensive rebounds and forcing nine turnovers that they parlayed into ten points. Cryer led the way with seventeen points, seven rebounds, four assists, and a steal, while Sharp (pictured below alongside Cryer) wasn’t far behind with sixteen points and shot 4-of-10 from three (40.0%).
From a betting perspective, Houston comes into their first National Semifinal in four years on the strength of a 34-4 record straight-up, while also turning a profit against the spread with a 20-16-2 mark on that latter front. This is a team that has been a bit streaky in that regard, with four different stretches of 3+ wins and three of 3+ or more losses this season, though they did cover as 2.5-point favorites in that aforementioned romp over Tennessee. However, they find themselves as underdogs tonight, which is just the second time that has been the case this year; back on January 25th, the Cougars were 1-point dogs in their trip to Lawrence to battle Kansas, whom they bested in a 92-86 affair. Keep an eye on the spread for tonight’s game, folks, for if it somehow rises to seven points, it should be noted that this team has covered just one of their last six games when receiving between 7.0-12.5 points from the oddsmakers. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (44-30 SU), advancing to seventeen Sweet Sixteens, eight Elite Eights, and now seven Final Fours, though are 0-2 in National Finals (1983 and 1984). As for Sampson, he is participating in his twenty-first big dance with his fourth different school (Washington State, Oklahoma, Indiana), with now three appearances in the Final Four (2002, 2021, and 2025). As we covered earlier, Houston and Duke have met only once before, that aforementioned 54-51 defeat in last year’s Regional Semifinal. While they often excel in defensive slugfests, the Cougars came up just short in this one, largely due to their struggles from beyond the arc (2-of-8 3FG) and from the charity stripe (9-of-17 FT), where they left an awful lot of points on the board, particularly in the case of the latter. Cryer posted a team-high fifteen points on 7-of-14 shooting (50.0%) and three rebounds but was responsible for four turnovers opposed to one assist, while (Senior Forward) J’Wan Roberts added thirteen points and eight rebounds, four of the offensive variety. The public remembers this one, evident by only 23% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the cats, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money changing hands has followed suit (33%). On the injury front, keep an eye (Senior Guard) Mylik Wilson, who is listed as questionable following his team’s triumph over the weekend. Wilson, who averaged 5.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals without missing a single game this season, logged twenty-four minutes en route to seven rebounds and four assists versus the Vols. Looking ahead, if Houston advances to their first National Title Game in over four decades, then they will cross paths with either Auburn or Florida. For inquiring minds, they are a combined 9-2 versus the two programs, trouncing the former in the second round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament (81-64).