8:50 PM EST, CBS – Spread: Florida -1.5, Total: 141.5
After three weeks’ worth of action and sixty-eight teams, we are finally down to just two as the 2025 NCAA Tournament comes to its conclusion tonight in San Antonio as the (1 Seed) Florida Gators battle the (1 Seed) Houston Cougars for the right to cut down the nets at the Alamodome. On one side, we have Florida (25-4, 14-4 in SEC), who emerged as one of the favorites to be the last team standing thanks to a stellar pre-tourney run that saw them secure an SEC Tournament Title. Momentum is often key this time of year, with these rowdy reptiles owning plenty of that previous commodity; since suffering 20-point loss in Knoxville back on February 1st, (Head Coach) Todd Golden & Co have been near perfect, winning SEVENTEEN of eighteen games, eleven of which coming by a margin of 10+ points. After enacting revenge on Tennessee in the final of the SEC Tournament (86-77), the Gators ripped through (16 Seed) Norfolk State in the opening round of the dance (95-69), before snapping (2-time reigning National Champion) UConn’s 13-game tourney win streak a few days later (77-75), followed by a drubbing of (4 Seed) Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen (87-71) and a late rally to knock off (3 Seed) Texas Tech in the Elite Eight (84-79). During this prolonged run of success, this is a team that has really settled into a groove on both ends of the hardwood, scoring 87.6 points per game on 48.6% shooting from the field, including 38.5% from beyond the arc, with 16.1 assists opposed to committing 10.3 turnovers, while shipping an average of 74.9 points on 42.8% shooting overall and 31.5% from downtown, owning a +6.7 edge on the glass along the way. Now in his third season in Gainesville, Golden has done an excellent job of building a balanced roster, packed with a dynamic and experienced backcourt buoyed by plenty of size and length around the rim. With that being said, the brightest star has easily been (former Iona transfer) Walter Clayton Jr, who in this tourney alone has been nothing short of outstanding, posting 24.6 points per game on a healthy 50.0% shooting, including a ridiculous 19-of-39 (48.7%) from three, along with 3.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists to boot. Furthermore, he has been a regular at the charity stripe, netting 38-of-42 free-throws thus far (90.5%). After pouring in thirty points last weekend’s comeback victory over the Red Raiders, Clayton (pictured below) was even better in Saturday’s 79-73 triumph against (fellow 1 Seed) Auburn, totaling THIRTY-FOUR points on 11-of-18 shooting (61.1%) and 5-of-8 from deep (62.5%), four rebounds, and a pair of assists. In fact, this kid is the first player in tourney history since the legendary LARRY BIRD to rack up consecutive 30-point performances. As a whole, Florida shot 47.2% from the field, including 8-of-21 on threes (38.1%), while handling the Tigers on the glass (39-30), particularly on the offensive end where they secured a dozen boards. Golden’s troops were the more aggressive side and not just on the offensive glass, getting to the free-throw line with aplomb (21-of-30 FT), while manufacturing War Eagle’s fourteen turnovers into sixteen points, leading to a +10 advantage. Apart from Clayton, whose contested layup with just over two minutes remaining helped stretch the lead to two possessions, (fellow Senior Guard) Alijah Martin contributed with seventeen points 6-of-10 shooting (60.0%) and 2-of-3 from distance (66.7%), while (Sophomore Forward) Thomas Haugh added a dozen points, seven rebounds, and a block coming off the bench. That victory has the Gators positioned to compete in their fourth National Final in school history and their first since winning back-to-back National Championships in 2006 and 2007.
From a betting perspective, Florida comes into their first National Final eighteen years at 35-4 straight-up, though have been one of the most rewarding teams in the country against the spread where they are 28-11 on that front (71.8!!!), parlaying to a net profit of 15.5 units. Remarkably, this is a team that has logged back-to-back non-covers on just TWO occasions this season, with the most recent coming in the first two rounds of this tournament. This is something to consider, folks, for the Gators came into the big dance on a 12-1 tear versus the spread, only to cool off post-SEC Tournament with a 2-3 ledger ATS, which includes a cover over Auburn (-2.5). When favored by the oddsmakers, these reptiles are 25-9 ATS (73.5%), which includes a 2-0 mark when favored by 0.5-3.0 points, which is the case tonight. Furthermore, the quick turnaround hasn’t been very kind to them in this tournament, for they are 0-2 ATS in games featuring only one day of rest, winning by an average of just 3.5 points, which pales in comparison to the sizable margin of 16.0 points that they’ve beaten their other opponents by. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (53-22 SU), advancing to twelve Sweet Sixteens, ten Elite Eights, six Final Fours, and now four National Finals, with those two aforementioned National Championships to their credit. As for Golden, he is dancing for the third time with two schools (San Francisco), though this is by far and away the furthest that he has progressed. Looking at this particular matchup, Florida has NEVER beaten Houston on the hardwood, though it should be noted that they have only crossed paths twice with both occasions coming in the 1970s. Despite that, the betting public resides firmly in the swamp, with approximately 66% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread siding with the Gators, while a slightly smaller share of all money being wagered thus far has followed suit (61%). If the Gators manage to topple the Cougars tonight in San Antonio, then they will become the first SEC team to win a natty since Kentucky did so in 2012, and just the fourth to do so since the turn of the century.
Meanwhile, they may be more Cardiac Cats than Phi Slama Jama, but this current incarnation of Houston (35-4, 19-1 in BIG XII) has nonetheless joined their hallowed predecessors in competing in their first National Championship Game since 1984. With that being said, those legendary teams featuring the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, and Michael Young NEVER managed to capture a national title, despite advancing to three consecutive Final Fours and back-to-back National Finals. In many ways, this feels like a natural progression for a veteran group that has grown accustomed to making lengthy tournament runs under the guiding hand of (Head Coach) Kelvin Sampson, who revived a program that had long been mired in irrelevance prior to his arrival; from 1987 to 2017, this is a program that participated in just FOUR NCAA Tournaments, though over the last six tourneys, the Cougars have done no worse than advance to the Sweet Sixteen, which is coincidently where the music stopped in each of the past two dances, while reaching Final Fours in both 2021 and 2025. Sampson has amassed a veteran group laden with senior and juniors, with their calling card coming on the defensive end of the court where they have been statistically the toughest team in the country. Houston has shipped the fewest points in the NCAA (58.5) on a scant 38.2% shooting from the field (1st Overall), including 44.3% from within the arc (5th Overall) and 30.3% beyond it (20th Overall), while permitting just 11.4 assists (84th Overall) in comparison to forcing 13.2 turnovers (75th Overall). Simply put, it can be akin to pulling teeth when playing against these cats, who oftentimes slow the game to a crawl so that they can smother their opponent defensively. This was the case in Saturday night’s improbable 70-67 comeback triumph over (1 Seed) Duke. Sampson’s side trailed by as many as fourteen points in the second half, only to clamp down on the Blue Devils midway through the second period, relinquishing only ONE field goal over the final 10:38 of action. During this stretch, they held their opponent to 37.5% shooting, which was 20% lower than they had shot in any of their previous four tourney outings, while the sixty-seven total points was the second-lowest scoring output of the year for the ACC champions. On the flipside, the Cougars closed on a 11-1 run, with (Senior Forward) J’Wan Roberts pair of clutch free-throws with 19.6 seconds left on the clock granting them their first lead since it was 6-5 early in the first half. When it was all said and done, Houston pulled this one out with decisive edges in three-pointers (10-of-22) for a +9 advantage, and rebounds (42-21), particularly on the offensive end where their EIGHTEEN boards led to eight more field goal attempts, including (Sophomore Forward) Joseph Tugler’s late putback slam to cut the deficit to one point prior to Roberts’ free-throws. (Senior Guard) L.J. Cryer led the way with twenty-six points on 8-of-14 shooting (57.1%) and 6-of-9 from three (66.7%), while (Junior Guard) Emanuel Sharp added sixteen points and three treys himself. The tandem of Cryer and Sharp (pictured together below) were a combined 9-of-16 from deep (56.2%) and 9-of-12 from the charity stripe (75.0%), while Roberts racked up a dozen rebounds (4 offensive), five assists, and a pair of steals. Tugler put in plenty of dirty work too, with team-highs in both offensive rebounds (5) and blocks (4).
From a betting perspective, Houston comes into their first National Final in FORTY-ONE years at an identical 35-4 straight-up, though they haven’t been quite a rewarding against the spread (21-17-1), parlaying to a net profit of +2.64 units. This is a team that has been a bit streaky in that regard, with four different stretches of 3+ covers and three of as many or more losses this season, though they have covered three of their five outings in this tournament, including that aforementioned comeback against Duke (+4.5). That marked just the SECOND time in this current campaign that the Cougars have received points from the oddsmakers, and it is worth noting that they have covered each of those contests, which is relevant seeing as how they are underdogs once again tonight. We touched upon the struggles of their opponent when competing on just one day of rest, but that hasn’t kept the cats from performing at a high level; the Cougs are 4-1-1 versus the spread this season in such affairs, including 1-1 in this dance, narrowly besting the Boilermakers before embarrassing the Volunteers. All-time, this is a program that is making their twenty-sixth appearance in the NCAA Tournament (45-30 SU), advancing to seventeen Sweet Sixteens, eight Elite Eights, seven Final Fours, and now three National Finals, though are 0-2 in on this ultimate stage. As for Sampson, the longtime skipper is participating in his twenty-first big dance with his fourth different school (Washington State, Oklahoma, Indiana), though after reaching his third Final Four this marks the first time in his stellar career that he has managed to reach a National Final. As we covered earlier, Houston and Florida have met only twice in the long histories of their respective programs, both of which came over fifty years ago, with the last encounter coming in 1973, a 97-73 romp by the Cougars. We can’t blame the betting public for not remembering that one, as roughly 34% of all wagers placed upon the spread are siding with the cats, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit to Clutch City (39%). If Houston manages to win their first-ever National Championship tonight at the Alamodome, then they will become just the fourth school from the BIG XII to do so since the turn of the century, though they would be the third (along with Kansas and Baylor) to cut down the nets since 2021.