10:30 PM EST, NBA TV – Spread: Lakers -9.0, Total: 225.0
Even though there are only two days left in the regular season, there is still plenty left to be decided as teams continue jockeying for the playoffs to the very end, which brings us to tonight’s showdown between the Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers, who currently represent the second and third teams in the competitive Western Conference. Beginning with the Rockets (52-28, 2nd in Western Conference), this campaign has served as a renaissance for a franchise that was forced to hit the proverbial reset button four years ago. After winning just thirty-nine games between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons, Houston finally got serious with the hiring of (Head Coach) Ime Udoka, who was available after being fired by the Celtics following scandal despite taking his team to the 2023 NBA Finals. With a chip on his shoulder, Udoka immediately begun whipping his young roster into shape, adding grizzled veterans such as Dillon Brooks and Fred VanVleet to expedite the process. As a result, his troops improved to 41-41 last season, only see that growth continue into this campaign, which has been all about the collective maturation of their young core. Third-year rising stars such as Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have enjoyed transformative years, with the former enjoying his first All-Star selection on the strength of 19.2 points, 10.4 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1,1 steals, while the latter leads the team with 21.4 points along with 4.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists. Furthermore, (Sophomore Swingman) Amen Thompson has developed into a stifling defensive presence on the wing, logging 8.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks to go with 14.0 points per contest. Depth has been a real asset for this group, with seven different players scoring in double-figures, though has the true identity of Udoka’s charges has been their relentless defense. This really shouldn’t come as a surprise given their coach’s reputation, as the Rockets rank fifth in points allowed (109.2) and field goal percentage yielded (45.6%), second in shooting percentage within the arc (52.1%) and ninth beyond it (35.5%), all the while pacing the Association in rebounds (48.7) and shipping the second-fewest assists (23.4). That work rate on the glass also extends to the offensive end of the hardwood, where they sit atop the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage (31.9%), which gives them a wealth of extra opportunities around the rim. After winning fifteen of seventeen games and therefore clinching the second overall seed out west, Houston suffered one of their worst defeats of the campaign a 117-134 drubbing at the Clippers on Wednesday night, which saw Udoka rest many of his starters, including the entire starting five minus Green. Remarkably, his troops shot a scintillating 51.1% overall from the field and a whopping 20-of-40 from three (50.0%), with six different players scoring in double-figures. Unfortunately, as that score would indicate, their defensive prowess took a major dive as Los Angeles shot 53.3% from the field and 19-of-37 on threes (51.4%), with the biggest difference between the two sides coming from the charity stripe, where the hosts were +12.
From a betting perspective, the Rockets come into tonight’s penultimate game of the regular season at 52-28 straight-up, but they have also been a rewarding side against the spread as well, posting a 43-36-1 record on that front parlaying to a net profit of 3.09 units. This is a team that has finally come out of a dry spell with just two covers over the course of nine games, covering three in a row before suffering that aforementioned blowout at the hands of the Clippers. Then again, they were 10.5-point underdogs in that matchup, which reflected Udoka’s approach of sitting a number of prominent players after it became clear that Houston clinched the second seed in the Western Conference. His troops are 5-5 ATS over their last ten outings away from the friendly confines of Toyota Center, while covering four of their past ten contests when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is once again the case tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the home team has won EIGHT of the last nine meetings between these two franchises, covering the spread in six of them along the way. They have split their previous two encounters from this season, with each side protecting their home floor. In their first battle, a narrow 119-115 affair in Clutch City back on January 5th, a late steal courtesy of VanVleet in the waning moments saw the hosts fend off the visitors. The aforementioned Green totaled thirty-three points on the night, drilling 5-of-12 treys along the way, while Thompson added twenty-three points and SIXTEEN rebounds. The Rockets outrebounded the Lakers 49-39, including 18-10 on the offensive end, which when coupled with 10-6 edge in turnovers led to TWENTY-ONE more field goal attempts for the home side, ultimately making the difference. They would cross paths again on March 31st, this time in the City of Angels against a vastly different opponent, thus coming up short in the 104-98 (which we’ll get into detail in a bit). Given how close the previous two meetings were, the betting public appears to believe that tonight’s spread is a little too inflated, with roughly 56% of all wagers placed on that front siding with Houston, while a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered has followed suit (53%). On the injury front, there is a very real chance that Udoka will be resting many of his troops once again, with the likes of VanVleet (ankle), Sengun (back), and (former third overall pick) Jabari Smith (groin) all listed as questionable for tonight. Looking ahead, the Rockets will close out the regular season on Sunday afternoon back at home against the Nuggets, whom they also split two meetings against, logging a 128-108 drubbing at Ball Arena before sustaining a narrow 116-111 loss at home just over two months later.
Meanwhile, the immediate goal is clear for the Lakers (49-31, 3rd in Western Conference): win one of their final two games and they will secure the third overall seed out west. Needless to say, this is a welcome change for Los Angeles, who find themselves advancing to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 without having to participate in the dreaded Play-In Tournament. Why is that relevant, you ask? Well, LA secured the franchise’s SEVENTEENTH NBA Title in that season, of course. With that being said, it appeared that they were headed once again towards struggling just reach the postseason before inciting arguably the biggest (and surely the most unexpected) midseason trade in recent history, acquiring (5-time All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic in a blockbuster deal with the Mavericks, shipping away (10-time All-Star Center) Anthony Davis among others in exchange. Needless to say, this move completely altered the rotation for (Head Coach) J.J. Redick, who in his first season as not only the Lakers’ skipper, but his first as a HC in general, has done a tremendous job in handling one of the most difficult jobs in sports. Thankfully for everyone involved, the Slovenian’s arrival has altered the team for the better; since the trade, Los Angeles is 21-12 overall, including 17-10 when the reigning scoring champion has suited up. For those worrying about how Doncic (pictured below) would fit alongside (5-time MVP) LeBron James, those concerns have been much ado about nothing, with the former averaging a robust 27.8 points per game on 43.0% shooting, including 37.3% from downtown, along with 8.1 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 1.6 steals. When we last saw him, he was busy reminding his former employers what they have been missing, torching the Mavericks in a 112-97 victory on Wednesday night. In his first trip back to American Airlines Center since the trade, an emotional Doncic utterly eviscerated the franchise that drafted him third overall back in 2018, pouring in FORTY-FIVE points on an efficient 16-of-28 shooting (57.1%), including 7-of-10 treys (70.0%), eight boards, six dimes, and four steals. James added twenty-seven points on 11-of-20 shooting (55.0%), seven rebounds, and three assists, while the tandem of Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves contributed a combined twenty-six points on 9-of-20 shooting (45.0%), eleven boards, and seven helpers. Despite shipping 50.0% shooting to the hosts, the visitors made up for it with a whopping FOURTEEN steals, which lead to eighteen more field goal attempts and TWENTY-FIVE points scored off turnovers. Furthermore, they dominated the paint against their former teammate, Davis, owning 58-48 advantage in that area of the court, while logging fourteen offensive rebounds which further fueled their industrious effort.
From a betting perspective, the Lakers come into this rubber match against the Rockets at 49-31 straight-up and they too have been a plus-side against the spread, posting a 44-34-2 record in that regard which equates to a net profit of 6.0 full units. This is a team that has gone 20-12-1 versus the spread since the Doncic trade, including 5-3-1 ATS over the last nine outings, which also includes the Slovenian’s aforementioned return to Dallas which they easily covered as 4.5-point favorites. Los Angeles has been a solid play when favored against winning opponents of late, particularly when at home where they have covered six of their last seven such tilts. As we covered earlier, these two teams have split their previous two encounters this season, with each winning on their home floor: nearly three months after coming up short at Toyota Center, the Lakers put their revolutionized roster on display, besting Houston in a 104-98 victory two weeks ago. Despite shooting just 39.3% from the field, the hosts ultimately pulled this one out thanks to their prowess from the perimeter, where they knocked down 16-of-46 three-pointers (34.8%), which parlayed to a +18 advantage on the night. While James and Doncic combined to net just 3-of-11 attempts from downtown (27.2%), the bench mob saved the day for LA, as Dorian Finney-Smith and Gabe Vincent drained SIX treys apiece, accounting for FORTY of their team’s forty-six points bench points. Doncic may have shot just 6-of-16 overall (37.5%), but he did make his presence in other ways, totaling twenty points of his own, six rebounds, nine assists, and a pair of steals. The betting public clearly remembers how close the other two meetings between these teams were, which is reflected in how 44% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with Los Angeles, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on that front has followed suit (47%). On the injury front, James is listed as probable due to a tender groin, while (veteran Center) Maxi Kleber, who was also a part of the Doncic deal with Dallas, will continue to miss time recovering from foot surgery. Looking ahead, the Lakers will conclude the regular season on Sunday evening in Portland to battle the Trail Blazers.