3:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Warriors -3.5, Total: 219.5
Finally, we’ve reached the final day of the 2025 regular season and there is still plenty to be decided in terms of postseason positioning, particularly out west, where the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors cross paths in an affair that will bring some sorely needed clarity to the playoff field. First up, we have the Clippers (49-32, 5th in Western Conference), who are closing the book on the first regular season of what has been billed as a new era for the franchise. Apart from a new logo and uniforms, Los Angeles’ other NBA team finally moved out of Crypto.com Arena into their very own $2 BILLION arena in Inglewood, christened as the Intuit Dome. These changes were indeed a long time coming, though they also served as a welcome distraction from the product on the hardwood. Simply put, this is a team that in the eyes of many had plateaued with an expensive roster built upon a triumvirate of aging and injury-prone stars. Five years ago, (2-time Finals MVP) Kawhi Leonard and (perennial All-Star) Paul George were assembled to turn the Clips into a legitimate championship contender, though a rash of injuries left them consistently short of reaching their goal, even after the club added (2017-2018 MVP) James Harden via trade early in the previous campaign. After going one-and-done in the 2024 Playoffs, (Head Coach) Ty Lue and (General Manager) Lawrence Frank began the process of turning the roster over, allowing George and several other veterans to leave in Free Agency, while signing Harden to a 2-year, $70 million contract. Again, the plan was to rely upon Leonard and Harden (pictured below) to fill the arena and keep them competitive, while slowing overhauling the rest of the rotation around them. As he has done so often during his tenure with the team, Lue has overachieved given the availability of his stars, coming into this evening’s contest just two wins shy of the mark set last season. Arguably the hottest team in the Association at the moment, he has led his troops to SEVETEEN wins in their last twenty outings, with their play on both ends of the court reaching extremes. Offensively, they’ve averaged a robust 119.0 points per game on a healthy 51.4% shooting from the field, including 42.7% from beyond the arc, with 25.9 assists opposed to committing 12.5 turnovers, while netting 17.9 free-throws. With that being said, they’ve been even better defensively, relegating opponents to a mere 106.1 points on 45.8% shooting overall and 33.2% from downtown, owning a +3.6 advantage on the glass and forcing 13.3 turnovers. So, what has been the key, you ask? How about a healthy Kawhi? By now, we’re all acquainted with the injury woes that have followed the 33-year-old throughout his career, particularly his time with the Clippers where he has missed . However, after being sidelined for the first thirty-four games of this season rehabbing from knee inflammation stemming from a knee injury that curtailed the previous campaign, the 6-time All-Star has slowly rounded back into the form that made him such a two-way force; during this stretch, we have seen vintage Kawhi, averaging 25.1 points on an efficient 52.0% shooting, 44.0% from three, 7.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.0 steals. This was the case in Friday night’s narrow 101-100 victory over the Kings, which saw Leonard lead the team with twenty-eight points on 10-of-21 shooting (47.6%), seven boards, three dimes, and a theft, quelling the host’s late rally. The visitors shot 51.3% from the floor, while hammering Sacramento in the paint (56-34) and owning a decisive edge in transition (+12). Harden, who has also been excellent during this prolonged stretch of success, logged his third triple-double of the season with twenty-three points, eleven rebounds, and ten assists.
From a betting perspective, the Clippers come into this evening’s finale at 49-32 straight-up, though have also been rewarding against the spread where they own a 46-35 mark in that regard, parlaying to a net profit of 6.82 units. As we covered earlier, this is a team that is peaking at the right time, with this current run also featuring a nice payday for the betting public, with FOURTEEN covers over the last twenty games, equating to a cover percentage of .700!!! Los Angeles has covered four of their last five games away from Intuit Dome, while matching that ledger in their past five contests as an underdog. Furthermore, they are riding a streak of four consecutive covers on the road and facing an opponent with a winning home record, with another four straight wins versus the spread immediately following an ATS loss, which is the case this evening. Looking at this particular matchup, the Clips have taken seven of their last ten meetings with the Warriors, including each of their previous three of this season. Of those three encounters, only one was decided by single digits, as Lue’s charges really stymied Golden State’s attack, limiting them to 98.3 points per game on a mere 41.2% shooting from the field, including just 29.6% from beyond the arc, forcing 18.0 turnovers along the way. The most recent affair, a 102-92 victory on December 27th, saw the hosts succeed on the strength of their depth with six players scoring in double-figures, led by (veteran Guard) Norman Powell with twenty-six points on 10-of-20 shooting (50.0%), while (criminally underrated Center) Ivica Zubac totaled seventeen points, eleven rebounds, and FIVE blocks. However, it should be noted that this tilt featured no Leonard, who was still rehabbing from that aforementioned knee inflammation, while the Dubs were without the two pillars of their team, Steph Curry and Draymond Green (more on them in a bit). With that being said, all the betting public appears to see is that LAC is a commanding 3-0 versus GSW thus far, leading to roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon the spread thus far riding with the Clippers, while an even larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front has followed suit (62%). On the injury front, (veteran Forward) Nicolas Batum missed the short trip to Sacramento with an ailing ankle and will be held out of today’s finale. Looking ahead, seeds four through seven are separated by just one game in the Western Conference, which means with a win this evening Kawhi & Co will be no less than fifth, pending the outcome of Denver/Houston, which could see them rise to fourth, which grant them home court in the first round of the playoffs. However, a loss coupled with a Minnesota victory would drop them down to seventh and the dreaded play-in tournament, where they would have two opportunities to punch their ticket to the playoffs proper.
Meanwhile, the Warriors (48-33, 6th in Western Conference) are also peaking at the right time, folks, winning NINETEEN of their twenty-five games post All-Star Break. Of course, this is a vastly different team than the one that their opponents handled with relative ease on three successive occasions, for Golden State was one of the biggest movers and shakers at the Trade Deadline, acquiring the services of (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler in a deal with Miami. Needless to say, the 35-year-old desired a change of scenery from South Beach, where despite a fruitful 5-year stretch that saw him lead the Heat to a pair of NBA Finals appearances, the relationship ultimately went south (pun intended) due to his requests for a lucrative new contract. After playing hardball with Butler (pictured below alongside Curry and Green) for months, even suspending him on occasion, the club shipped him westward, where his presence has injected the Dubs with some sorely needed two-way creativity and attitude. Since his arrival, he has averaged 17.5 points on 46.8% shooting from the field, along with 5.7 rebounds, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.7 steals, with his ability to create for himself and for others relieving some pressure from the aforementioned Curry to carry the attack. The numbers will support the positive impact that he has made to boot; the Warriors are a stellar 23-7 since the trade, outscoring their opponents by a margin of 9.9 points per game on 46.0% shooting overall and 36.4% from beyond the arc, while boosting their production from the charity stripe (20.5 FT), and dishing out 29.9 assists in comparison to committing 14.0 turnovers. Are they an older team? Yes. Are they a bit halfcourt-oriented? Indeed. All in all, are they better off? Absolutely. Again, Butler has made life easier on both Curry and Green, with the former posting 27.0 points on 47.2% shooting, including 40.1% from three, while has settled back into being the two-way facilitator/defensive dynamo that he has been throughout his career, becoming the favorite to claim his second Defensive Player of the Year honors. When we last saw the Dubs, they bounced back with a convincing 103-86 victory over the lowly Trail Blazers, which saw (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops author one of the finest defensive performances of the season to date. The visitors held Portland to 37.6% shooting and 6-of-30 from downtown (20.0%), where they outscored them by a margin of TWENTY-FOUR points. Butler & Co also forced a season-high TWENTY-TWO turnovers, which led to twenty points going the other way. Butler led the team with twenty-four points on 6-of-10 shooting (60.0%), with five rebounds and seven assists, while netting each of his eleven free-throw attempts. Curry totaled just fourteen points, but the bench poured in forty-three points, with the likes of Buddy Hield, Jonathan Kuminga, and Quienten Post combining for thirty-six points on the night.
From a betting perspective, the Warriors come into this finale at 48-33 straight-up, but they have also been a rewarding side against the spread, albeit marginally at 41-37 on that front, parlaying to a net profit of just 0.27 units. This is a team that made the betting public plenty of money since the Butler trade, covering seventeen of those thirty games (17-11-2 ATS), including six of their last eight outings, the most recent being that aforementioned drubbing of the Blazers despite being favored by a whopping 15.5 points. With that being said, Golden State is just 3-6-1 ATS in their last ten home games, while going 5-4-1 ATS over their past ten tilts when favored by the oddsmakers. Furthermore, it should be noted that Kerr & Co have covered just ONE of their last seven affairs as a home favorite, which is the case this evening. As we covered earlier, the Dubs have struggled against the Clippers of late, losing SIX of the last seven meetings, including each of their first three encounters this season. However, as we also noted, all three of those defeats occurred BEFORE the addition of Butler, with the most recent crossing of paths, that aforementioned 102-92 loss in Inglewood, occurring without the services of Curry or Green. Given Butler’s playmaking ability, adding him to this matchup should be interesting for the fact that the Warriors will have multiple creative hubs on the floor when their triumvirate are together, while the veteran swingman’s length and physicality will give Kerr a much better option to hound the likes of Harden. Over the course of his career, Butler has met the Clips on twenty occasions, averaging 17.7 points on 41.2% shooting, with 5.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists along with 1.2 steals to boot. Even with this new-look rotation, the betting public doesn’t appear to be very convinced that GSW will fare any better in this matchup, as approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon the spread are riding with the hosts, with an even smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit to Chase Center (38%). Looking ahead, if the Warriors happen to win this evening, then they will ensure themselves the sixth seed and safety from falling into the play-in tournament. However, a loss would see them plummet to as low as seventh, pending on the outcome of the Timberwolves/Jazz.