7:30 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Magic -4.5, Total: 218.5
With the 2025 regular season in the books, it’s now on to the annual play-in tournament, which begins on the eastern half of the bracket where the (8 Seed) Atlanta Hawks travel to the sunshine state to battle the (7 Seed) Orlando Magic, with the winner moving onto the first round of this weekend’s playoffs. No stranger to the play-in, the Hawks (40-42, 8th in Eastern Conference) find themselves competing in this tournament for a FOURTH consecutive postseason, which tells you everything you need to know about this franchise. After trying to build a new axis of power with the backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, Atlanta opted to trade the latter in the offseason following a disappointing 36-46 campaign, culminating in a one-and-done trip through the play-in. (Head Coach) Quin Snyder and (Lead Executive) Landry Fields opted for a youth movement around Young (pictured below), assembling a roster that features just three players aged 30+. While they certainly struggled throughout the first half of season, these birds finally got some consistent lift under their wings come March, putting together a 13-9 stretch to close the schedule. During this stretch, the attack has been one of the most prolific in the NBA, averaging a robust 122.5 points per game on 49.7% shooting from the field, including 38.0% from beyond the arc, along with a healthy 30.5 assists in comparison to committing 14.4 turnovers. Of course, Young has played a SIZABLE role in this turnaround, leading the league with a career-high 11.6 assists, which when coupled with his 24.2 points per contest makes him the ONLY player other than (reigning MVP) Nikola Jokic to average 20+ points and 10+ assists in 2024-2025. With an offensive hub of that quality, it becomes easy for other players to develop, which has been the case with youngsters such as (Australia international) Dyson Daniels and (Spain international) Zaccharie Risacher. The former has been nothing short of a 2-way menace with 4.4 assists and an NBA-best 3.0 steals in his first season with the Hawks following his arrival from New Orleans, while the latter, the number one overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, completed a solid rookie campaign with 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.2 assists on shotting splits of 45.8/35.5/71.1. This late run through March has featured the best of Risacher, who has posted 15.4 points on an efficient 52.4% shooting overall and 39.3% from downtown. With their play-in matchup with the Magic booked prior to Sunday’s finale at State Farm Arena, Snyder opted to sit many of his starters, including Young and (young Center) Onyeka Okongwu, though that didn’t stop them from earning a 117-105 victory to finish the regular season. The hosts shot 53.3% from the floor and 17-of-40 from three (42.5%), assisting on thirty-two of their forty-seven field goals. Seven different players scored in double figures, led by (Rookie Guard) Keaton Wallace, who logged the first triple double of his career with fifteen points, eleven rebounds, and fifteen assists.
From a betting perspective, the Hawks return to the play-in with a 40-42 record straight-up and there hasn’t been much variance against the spread either, posting a 40-41-1 ledger in that regard parlaying to a net loss 4.64 units. Since the month of March began, this is a team that has covered thirteen of their final twenty-two outings, including each of their final three contests. Atlanta has been a solid play away from home of late, covering the spread in seven of their past ten road ventures, while splitting their last ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. With tonight’s trip to Central Florida marking their fourth consecutive play-in appearance, it is worth noting that the birds are 3-1 in such affairs, advancing to the playoffs via this route on two occasions. However, last April saw them crash out of the play-in with a 131-116 drubbing at the Bulls, who jumped all over them in a 40-22 first quarter. Snyder’s troops were eviscerated on the defensive end, where the hosts shot a blistering 56.8% from the field, while his team’s perimeter shooting was wide largely wide of the mark (11-of-37 3FG). Four different players scored 20+ points for the Hawks, led by Young with twenty-two, but it simply wasn’t enough to keep pace with Chicago. Looking at tonight’s matchup, Atlanta has won six of the past ten meetings with their Southeast Division rival, two of which coming in Orlando, while splitting their four encounters this season. Apart from Sunday’s finale, the other three tilts were all close, having been decided by a combined nineteen points. Despite averaging 28.3 points, Young has had to work for his numbers in those games, shooting 44.6% from the field and 8-of-30 from downtown (26.7%), but he has continued to supplement that by getting to the charity stripe, netting 19-of-23 free-throws (82.6%). The betting public doesn’t appear to be very confident in the birds, folks, as approximately 42% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing Trae & Co, with an even smaller share of the total volume of money being wagered on this front following suit (38%). On the injury front, (veteran Forward) Larrry Nance Jr (knee), (Sophomore Guard) Kobe Bufkin (shoulder), and (young Swingman) Jalen Johnson (shoulder) are all out for the season with various ailments, but keep an eye on the availability of (veteran Center) Clint Capella, who has missed the final seventeen games after suffering a torn ligament in the fourth metacarpal within his left hand. The Swiss international is a prototypical rim-runner, logging 8.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.0 block in fifty-five games this season. Looking ahead, if the Hawks manage to win tonight, then they will be facing the (reigning NBA Champion) Celtics in the first round of the playoffs this weekend, but if they happen to fall short, then they will receive one more chance to punch their postseason ticket, hosting the winner of tomorrow night’s clash between the Heat and Bulls.
Meanwhile, after improving by thirteen games and advancing to the playoffs for the first time in four years, this season could be viewed as something of a disappointment for the Magic (41-41, 7th in Eastern Conference), who find themselves participating in the play-in instead. Granted, a win tonight would mean a second consecutive playoff berth, but one can’t help but feel that Orlando has fallen short of expectations in 2024-2025. Of course, after exhibiting such growth a year ago and being one of the few teams in the Association armed with cap space last offseason, many were projecting this young team to take the next step in their development. After all, (Head Coach) Jamahl Mosley and (General Manager) Jeff Weltman added (veteran Swingman) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a 32-year-old 2-time NBA Champion to bring some sorely needed experience to a group that had none. Needless to say, this is the kind of move you make if you’re looking to make the leap to championship contender. Unfortunately, injuries have gotten in the way of their progression, as the triumvirate of (2023-24 Rookie of the Year) Paolo Banchero, (German international) Franz Wagner, and (young Point Guard) Jalen Suggs have missed a combined 105 games due to injury thus far, which has forced Mosley to get creative with his lineups, particularly given Suggs is out for the season following surgery to repair a torn quad muscle. With that being said, Banchero and Wagner (pictured together below) returned just in time to incite a late push towards the postseason, leading the Magic to a 12-6 finish; during this stretch, they have outscored their opponents by an average margin of 5.4 points, shooting 46.1% from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc, while their collective defensive pressure has forced 15.3 turnovers in comparison to shipping just 21.7 assists. Banchero has really settled into a groove as well, logging 29.3 points per game on 47.7% shooting, including 34.3% from downtown, along with 8.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists, posting seven double doubles with a streak of four straight 30-point performances to boot. Ditto for Wagner, who has averaged 22.2 points on 45.2% shooting, with 6.3 boards and 4.8 dimes. Orlando has been largely successful playing through these two forwards, which is the way they’re going to have to approach this postseason run. It also helps that they’re one of the stingiest defensive teams in the NBA, ranking first in points allowed (105.5), assists permitted (22.8), and turnover percentage (15.0%). This is a LONG group, folks, which has been evident in their ability to run opponents off of the three-point arc; the Magic have shipped the fewest treys in the league (11.4) and allowed the lowest number of attempts (31.4), making them a tough matchup for a team that relies on their ball movement and perimeter shooting, which is the case tonight. That wouldn’t be the case in Sunday’s finale, where Mosley’s troops were beaten by the Hawks in a 117-105 affair, which as we covered earlier, saw both sides resting notable players. Banchero and Wagner both sat this one out, which left the rest of the rotation to pick up the slack; seven players scored in double-figures, led by (Sophomore Guard) Anthony Black’s twenty points, ten boards, and three steals.
From a betting perspective, the Magic come into tonight’s play-in at an even 41-41 straight-up, which ironically matches their ledger against the spread (41-41), equating to a net loss of 3.73 units. During that aforementioned run down the stretch, this is a team that is also 12-6 versus the spread, with Sunday’s defeat snapping a streak of three consecutive covers. Orlando is 4-6 ATS in their last ten games at Kia Center, while covering seven of their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. Mosley’s charges have been a solid play after meeting defeat, covering SIX straight games following a SU or ATS loss, which is the case tonight. However, keep an eye on that line, folks, for they are just 2-8 ATS over their last ten tilts in which they are favored by 5.0-10.5 points, which is also the case tonight. As a franchise, this is the first time that the Magic are participating in the play-in tournament. Looking at this particular matchup, Orlando is 4-6 in their past ten encounters with their Southeast Division rival, though it is worth mentioning that they have covered SEVEN of them, including each of the two meetings that they happened to win this season. As we touched upon earlier, their size and length has created problems for the birds this season, forcing 15.0 turnovers, with 10.0 steals and 6.5 blocks along the way. Simply put, Atlanta has had ZERO answers for the duo of Banchero and Wagner, who together have averaged 61.3 points, 15.4 rebounds, and 9.0 assists in those matchups. Given that muscle in the frontcourt, the public is understandably backing the hosts, with roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread and 61% of all money being wagered on that front siding with the Magic. On the injury front, both Banchero and Wagner sat out the final two games due to what was described as knee soreness, but we have a feeling that Mosley was simply resting them in lieu of this matchup, with both stars expected to start tonight. Looking ahead, if Orlando takes care of business at home, then they will be off to Beantown this weekend to battle Boston in the first round of the playoffs, while a defeat would see them remain in Central Florida awaiting the winner of tomorrow’s other play-in matchup between Miami and Chicago.