10:00 PM EST, TNT – Spread: Warriors -7.0, Total: 229.0
Bitter rivals renew acquaintances in tonight’s play-in tournament, as the reeling (8 Seed) Memphis Grizzlies cross paths once again with the (7 Seed) Golden State Warriors, who are left ruing a wasted golden (pun intended) opportunity to enjoy some precious rest in lieu of competing in the postseason proper. Following a dismal campaign in which they posted their first losing record in four years, the Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in Western Conference) were tabbed by many to bounce back and reinsert themselves into the playoff race, which by and large they have done this season. After all, they got their leading man back on the hardwood, as (All-Star Point Guard) Ja Morant returned from a suspension that cost him all but nine games in 2023-2024. Needless to say, Morant (pictured below) has had an eventful two years in Memphis, but his impact cannot be denied; the 25-year-old quickly shook off the rust, averaging 23.2 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field, along with 4.1 rebounds, 7.3 assists, and 1.2 steals this season, guiding his team to a stellar 36-18 record at the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, the team that entered that week-long intermission was NOT the same team that emerged, for the Grizzlies have been plummeted over the second half of the campaign. Since February 20th, this is a group that has gone 12-16, with their play on both ends of the floor taking a dive; offensively, they went from scoring 123.3 points to 118.8 points per contest, while defensively they went from yielding 115.8 points to shipping 118.9. As Memphis descended down the western standings, (Head Coach) Talyor Jenkins was surprisingly fired from the post that he held for six seasons, with various reports citing his relationship with Morant and how the offensive approach no longer suited the superstar. As such, (lead assistant) Tuomas Iisalo was elevated to keep the ship afloat, which is what has happened as his charges finished the campaign with a 4-5 ledger. However, they definitely ended the regular season with a bang (which may not be the best choice of words in Morant’s case), destroying the Mavericks in a 137-92 affair on Sunday evening. Effectively clinching the eighth seed, Iisalo sat most of his starters, though you wouldn’t know it from the performance that the Grizzlies put together, shooting 50.0% from the floor with four different players scoring 20+ points. (Journeyman Forward) Lamar Stevens led the way with thirty-one points on 14-of-26 shooting (56.0%), while (2018 2nd Overall Pick) Marvin Bagley III logged twenty-five points and a dozen rebounds, five of the offensive variety.
From a betting perspective, the Grizzlies come into tonight’s play-in at 48-34 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread in posting a 40-39-3 ledger in that regard, parlaying to a net loss of 2.64 units. As we covered earlier, this is a team that has been in a funk since the All-Star Break, covering just SIX of their final TWENTY-EIGHT games (6-21-1 ATS), though they have finished the season on a respectable 3-2 run versus the spread, which included that aforementioned romp over the Mavericks on Sunday (+1.5). Memphis is 3-7 ATS in their last ten trips away from FedEx Forum, while really struggling of late when receiving points from the oddsmakers, going 1-9 ATS in their past ten outings as an underdog. Furthermore, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games as road dog and have matched that mark over their past six contests receiving between 5.0-10.5 points, with both trends relevant tonight. Also, these bears have failed to cover six consecutive tilts immediately following a performance in which they had scored at least 125 points. This is a franchise making their second appearance in the play-in, which is notable given that they are 2-0 in such games, including a surprising 117-112 upset of the Warriors in the 2021 affair, eliminating their opponent and booking their first trip to the playoffs in four years. Looking at this particular matchup, the Grizzlies are 4-6 in their last ten meetings with the Dubs (6-4 ATS), though have lost all but one of the last six encounters, including three out of four this season. Their lone victory, a 144-93 blowout back in mid-December, saw Memphis cruise despite receiving just nine points from Morant, while six other players scored in double figures. The other three contests were much closer though, decided by a combined twenty-two points. The most recent, a 134-125 loss at FedEx back on April 1st, saw the hosts unable to match the offensive prowess of their opponent; despite shooting 47.8% overall, they were -12 from downtown, -9 from the charity stripe, and -8 in transition, with a disastrous 22/16 assist/turnover ratio led to twenty-five points conceded. Once again, six players reached double figures in scoring, led by Morant with thirty-six points on 14-of-22 shooting (63.6%), but he also committed as many turnovers as assists (6). With all their issues of late coupled with their history in the postseason versus the Warriors, one would think that the betting public would be hesitant to lay anything on Morant & Co, but that simply hasn’t been the case; roughly 56% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing these bears, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (53%). On the injury front, Iisalo opted to rest many of his starters in the season finale with tonight’s trip to Chase Center in mind, with the likes of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Luke Kennard, and (Rookie Center) Zach Edey all expected to be active for this play-in battle. If the Grizzlies manage to turn back the clock and once again pull the upset in Golden State, then they will advance to the first round of the playoffs to face the (2 Seed) Rockets this weekend, while a defeat will see them get one more chance to prolong their postseason hopes, hosting the winner of tomorrow night’s clash between the Mavericks and Kings on Friday night.
Meanwhile, the west has long been an unforgiving landscape, and the Warriors (48-34, 7th in Western Conference) have found that out firsthand. How tight have things been in this conference, you ask? Well, both of these teams tonight finished the regular season with forty-eight victories, which was just two behind the Lakers, who sit at third in the standings. With that fact setting the table, Golden State entered Sunday’s showdown with the Clippers, who a single game ahead of them in the pecking order, with an opportunity to clinch the sixth seed and therefore avoid the unwanted chore of participating in the play-in. However, try as they did, they simply couldn’t get the job done as the affair ended in a 124-119 overtime loss. This was a track meet, folks, as both sides shot well over 50.0% from the field, though what this one ultimately came down to were moments, which (Head Coach) Steve Kerr’s troops couldn’t capture. After cutting the deficit to two points twice in the extra period, (veteran Forward) Draymond Green inexplicably missed an open layup during a particularly chaotic sequence, while a potential tying three-pointer from (journeyman sharpshooter) Buddy Heild fell short of its mark, immediately leading to free-throws for Los Angeles, who would put the game out of reach. The triumvirate of Green, (2-time MVP) Steph Curry, and (5-time All-NBA Guard) Jimmy Butler (pictured together below) combined for EIGHTY points on 27-of-49 shooting (55.1%), along with nineteen assists and four steals. Curry led the way with thirty-six points and 7-of-12 shooting from downtown (58.3%), while Butler totaled thirty points and nine assists. Sunday’s result aside, the Dubs have rounded into one of the strongest teams in the Association since acquiring Butler via trade from Miami back in early February, closing the campaign on a 23-8 run, with the hardnosed veteran bringing some sorely needed creativity and toughness to the starting lineup. Are they an older team? Yes. Are they a bit halfcourt-oriented? Indeed. All in all, are they better off? Absolutely. It really has been a seamless fit for the 35-year-old, who has averaged 17.9 points on 47.6% shooting overall with 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.7 steals, with his biggest impact coming from the charity stripe. Few players in the league are more adept at getting to the free-throw line, with Butler netting 6.7 of them per game. This has had a very positive effect on a team that prior to his arrival, sat dead last in free-throws made per game (14.4), only to LEAD the NBA in that particular category afterward (20.5).
From a betting perspective, the Warriors also come into tonight’s play-in affair at 48-34 straight-up and they too have failed to turn a profit against the spread, posting a 41-38-3 mark on that front, equating to a net loss of 0.73 units. Despite posting a 17-12-2 record versus the spread since the Butler trade, this is a team that has cooled off a bit of late, covering just two of their last five outings, including that wild season finale against the Clippers on Sunday (-3.5). Golden State is 3-7 ATS over their last ten games at Chase Center, while going 5-4-1 ATS in their past ten outings as a favorite. With that being said, Kerr’s troops are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven outings immediately following a game in which they shipped at least 100 points, which is the case tonight. As a franchise, the Dubs are making their third appearance in the play-in tournament, though it should be noted that they failed to advance to the playoff on both occasions, including that aforementioned defeat to the Grizzlies in 2021, followed by a disappointing 118-94 drubbing at the hands of the Kings last April. Looking at this particular matchup, the Warriors have fared much better against Memphis in the overall postseason, besting them in the Western Conference Semifinals on two occasions (2015 and 2022). This season, they have taken three of their four encounters, including the only one following the acquisition of Butler; the aforementioned 134-125 shootout saw Golden State rain down 22-of-56 treys (39.3%), a dozen of which came courtesy of Curry, who finished the affair with FIFTY-TWO points on 16-of-31 shooting overall (51.6%), along with ten rebounds, eight assists, and five steals. Butler finished with twenty-seven points of his own, including 12-of-12 free-throws, while Green posted his first triple-double of the season with thirteen points, ten boards, and twelve dimes. With all that in mind, the public remains split on this matchup, with approximately 45% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread backing the Dubs, while a slightly larger share of the total sum of money wagered on that front has followed suit (47%). On the injury front, Kerr should have a full complement of players at his disposal, though keep in mind that he did NOT rest anyone in Sunday’s overtime thriller. Looking ahead, if the Warriors handle their business at home, then they will be off to face the young Rockets in the first round of the playoffs, though a loss would be mean that they remain at Chase Center for a do-or-die clash with the winner of tomorrow night’s showdown between the Mavs and Kings.