10:00 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Kings -4.5, Total: 215.5
The 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament reaches the final game of its first stage, as (10 Seed) Dallas Mavericks cross paths with the (9 Seed) Sacramento Kings tonight from Golden 1 Center in Northern California, with the winner moving on to Friday’s second consecutive do-or-die affair. What a wild ten months it has been for the Mavericks (39-43, 10th in Western Conference), who went from participating in the franchise’s third ever NBA Finals last June, to inexplicably shipping away their brightest star and incurring the wrath of their own fans. That’s right, folks, this is a team that has dramatically shifted positions on the sporting spectrum, with the change coming down to one thing and one thing only: the stunning trade of (perennial All-NBA Guard) Luka Doncic. Following a disappointing 26-24 start in which it felt like they were merely treading water, Dallas shocked the sporting world in trading the Slovenian international to the Lakers in a deal that saw a return of only (veteran Forward) Anthony Davis, (Sophomore Guard) Max Christie, and a 2029 First Round Pick. Indeed, (General Manager) Nico Harrison has been feeling the wrath of both the Mavs fans and his counterparts around the league ever since that moment. On one hand, he traded away a 26-year-old reigning scoring champion who carried his team to the Finals for a package centered around an injury-prone 32-year-old big man, while receiving just one first-rounder in the process. Needless to say, there has been plenty of one-sided deals int he history of the NBA, but this one is easily more criminal than most. Since that seismic shift, the Mavericks have been a shell of the side that was so good last season, finishing on a 13-19 skid in which Davis (pictured below) immediately missed time with lower body malady, while (All-Star Point Guard) Kyrie Irving, who was also a HUGE ingredient for their postseason success last summer, was lost for the rest of the campaign due to a torn ACL in his left knee. With that being said, you would think that a team that thrived off the isolation success of Doncic and Irving would really be struggling offensively, but the most notable drop-off has come on the defensive end of the court; Kidd’s troops have relinquished 118.7 points per game on 49.1% shooting from the field, including 35.8% from beyond the arc, while getting outrebounded by 6.3 boards per contest, along with 28.0 assists in comparison to forcing 13.0 turnovers. With four defeats in their final five games, which all came by 15+ points, this is a group that has plenty to figure out for themselves come the offseason, no matter what happens in this play-in. Kidd opted to sit some of his starters in Sunday’s finale, a 132-97 drubbing on the road against the Grizzlies, which went about as well as that score would indicate. The hosts shot 43.7% from the field, including 5-of-28 from downtown (17.9%), with nearly as many turnovers committed (18) as assists (20). (Veteran Forward) Daniel Gafford led the team with twenty points, seven rebounds, and a pair of blocks, while Christie added fourteen points on 6-of-13 shooting (46.2%), five rebounds and two assists, but also four turnovers.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks come into tonight’s play-in at 39-43 straight-up, while posting a similar ledger against the spread (38-42-2), parlaying to a net loss of 7.45 units. This is a team that has really struggled on that front of late, with just seven covers over their final twenty-three games, including only one in the past seven contests, with the most recent defeat being that aforementioned affair with the Grizzlies (-1.5). Dallas is 4-6 ATS in their last ten games away from American Airlines Center, while matching that mark over their past ten outings as an underdog. As a franchise, tonight’s tilt marks their first-ever appearance in the Play-in Tournament. Looking at this particular matchup, the Mavs are 4-6 both SU and ATS in their last ten meetings with the Kings, though it should be noted that they have lost all three of their encounters this season. While the first two were relatively close (decided by a combined 11 points), but the most recent was anything but that; Kidd & Co were ran out of their own arena back on March 3rd, a 122-98 thumping in which the hosts trailed by as many as THIRTY-TWO points, due in large part to a sizable chasm in three-point shooting (-27). Ironically, this was the game in which Irving tore his ACL, leaving the game after just over nine minutes of action, which was clearly a fatal blow for the home side, as not a single starter scored in double figures, with unheralded tandem of Kai Jones and Naji Marshall combining for thirty-nine points, thirteen rebounds, six assists, and a pair of steals off the bench. Unsurprisingly, the public sees things the same way, folks, as approximately 42% of all wagers having been placed upon tonight’s spread are siding with the reigning Western Conference Champions, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money wagered on this front following suit (39%). On the injury front, Kidd knows he will be without Irving, but the jury is out on Davis (groin), Dereck Lively II (ankle), P.J. Washington (ankle), and (4-time NBA Champion) Klay Thompson (foot), who all refrained from participating in the season finale. Thompson, who arrived in the offseason via free agency after an absurdly successful career in Golden State may be a far cry from the player he was with the Dubs, but he has still proven to be a dead-eye sniper, averaging 14.0 points largely on 39.1% shooting from deep. Looking ahead, if the Mavericks to finally get best the Kings tonight, then they will be off to Memphis to face the Grizzlies on Friday night, with that winner pitted against the top-seeded Thunder on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Kings (40-42, 9th in Western Conference) may not have reached anywhere close to the mountaintop in recent seasons, but they are all-too familiar with falling back to mediocrity, which is unfortunately a realm that the franchise is obviously no stranger too. To put their current predicament into proper perspective, Sacramento went SIXTEEN years without a single playoff appearance, only to finally break through and snap the longest postseason drought in NBA with a watershed 2022-23 campaign. For the first time since the early 2000s, this team was not only relevant, but popular, thanks to an attractive offensive approach built on the exploits of (All-Stars) De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, led by (Coach of the Year) Mike Brown. Despite coming up short in an epic 7-game series against the (reigning NBA Champion) Warriors, there was plenty of optimism surrounding these monarchs though it would all be short lived, for you would be hard-pressed to recognize this group just two years later. So, what happened, you ask? Well, after coming back to Earth and getting eliminated in the play-in, the pressure was on to take the next step in their overall development, though a slow start (13-18) saw the franchise abruptly fire Brown after just thirty-one games. Little over a month later, the Kings shipped away Fox and (sharpshooting Forward) Kevin Huerter in a 3-team blockbuster with the Bulls and Spurs, receiving (veteran Swingman) Zach Lavine along with a bevy of future draft picks as well. Simply put, this completely altered the fabric of (Interim Head Coach) Doug Chirstie’s rotation, though it did reunite Lavine with (All-Star Guard) DeMar DeRozan (pictured together below) after spending three seasons together in Chicago. Despite exhibiting the chemistry that took them to the playoffs in the Windy City, combining for 44.6 points, 7.4 rebounds, and 8.2 assists since the deal went down, it hasn’t necessarily translated to the level of success that the team had hoped. The Kings have gone 15-16 since that point, outscoring their opposition by a scant 0.1 points per game. Simply put, this is mediocrity, folks, which was ironically the same complaints that their former employers in Chicago were accused of being during their time there. With that in mind, it really begs the question as to what (General Manager) Monte McNair is doing, for there is a distinct lack of a long-term plan in Sacramento. In the meantime, they are coming off a 109-98 victory over the Suns, in which Christie’s troops shot a stellar 52.3% from the floor, including 14-of-32 from beyond the arc (41.2%), with thirty-one assists in comparison to committing just thirteen turnovers. This one was all about the bigs, as Sabonis and (veteran Center) Jonas Valanciunas combined for forty-two points on and efficient 18-of-21 shooting (85.7%), twenty-two rebounds, ten assists, and three steals, with the former knocking down all four of his attempts from downtown.
From a betting perspective, the Kings enter their second play-in in as many years at 40-42 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding at all against the spread where they have logged a 34-44-4 ledger, resulting in a net loss of 13.09 units, which is the worst return of any team in this tournament. After covering nine consecutive contests between late February and early March, this is a group that has gone 8-11 versus the spread since then, which includes that aforementioned finale against Phoenix (-14). Sacramento is 4-6 ATS over their last ten games at Golden 1 Center, while flipping the script with a 6-4 mark ATS in their past ten outings as a favorite. Furthermore, resilience has been a commodity in their arsenal, registering four straight covers immediately following a non-cover. As we touched upon earlier, this is a franchise that is familiar with the Play-In Tournament, upsetting the Warriors in a 118-94 blowout last April, before eventually succumbing to the Pelicans in a 105-98 affair two days later. Looking at this particular matchup, the Kings have won six of the last ten meetings with the Mavericks (6-4 ATS), winning each of their three encounters this season. Christie & Co win the first tilt in NoCal (110-100) before narrowly prevailing in a spirited 129-128 overtime thriller in Dallas, which saw DeRozan erupt for forty-two points on 15-of-22 shooting (68.2%), including the game-winning floater from the baseline with two seconds left on the clock. In all three of these matchups, Sacramento had their way on the offensive end of the hardwood, averaging a robust 120.3 points on 49.7% shooting from the field and 38.0% from beyond the arc, while completely bludgeoning the Mavs on the glass (+13.0). In these meetings, DeRozan showed out with 25.3 points on 58.0% shooting, including 5-of-10 from downtown (50.0%), with 4.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists. The public likes what they see here, folks, with roughly 58% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread lighting the beam, with a slightly larger share of all money being wagered on this front following suit (61%). On the injury front, unless they make it out of the play-in, the Kings will be without (former Sixth Man of the Year) Malik Monk until later this month due to a strained left calf muscle. Monk missed seventeen games this season, but did start a career-high forty-five contests, averaging 17.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Looking ahead, if Sacramento manages to replicate what they did in the first leg of last year’s play-in, then they will have an opportunity to punch their ticket to Oklahoma City this weekend, as they face on Memphis on Friday night.