7:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Bulls -1.5, Total: 223.5
It may very well be possible for a rivalry to be formed in the play-in, as the (10 Seed) Miami Heat and the (9 Seed) Chicago Bulls cross paths for a third consecutive postseason, with the winner moving on to Friday’s final stage of the tournament and the latter purged to oblivion. At this point, it would have been all too easy to have written off the Heat (37-45, 10th in Eastern Conference), particularly after they seemingly waived the proverbial white flag in trading (5-time All-NBA Swingman) Jimmy Butler to the Warriors on February 6th. After all, the 2-way dynamo practically carried Miami to a pair of NBA Finals appearances during his five seasons with the franchise, the latter of which saw them do so despite competing in the play-in. So, that begs the question: what can this team do in the playoffs without Playoff Jimmy? Well, it should be stated that their marriage with Butler was definitely on the outs, as the veteran demanded a new contract that (longtime Tem President) Pat Riley was unwilling to grant, which led to a prolonged standoff between the two sides, even leading to a suspension at one point. Finally, the club moved him to Golden State in a massive 5-team deal that resulted in the likes of (Veteran Swingmen) Andrew Wiggens and Kyle Anderson along with (young Guard) Davion Mitchell and a 2025 First Round Pick coming to South Beach, setting them up nicely with a cap flexibility for the future. However, Heat Culture as we’ve come to know it demands results now no matter the level of talent on hand, and (longtime Head Coach) Erik Spoelstra has exactly that. Indeed, where most teams would have packed it in and made arrangements for Cancun, this group got their @!#$ together down the stretch in winning eight of their final twelve games to qualify for a third straight play-in. Miami has hammered their adversaries by an average margin of 13.9 points per contest, shooting 50.1% from the field and a blistering 42.4% from three, while outrebounding them (+3.3), and shipping 25.9 assists opposed to forcing 15.3 turnovers. The tandem of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro (pictured together below) have stepped up to carry the side in Butler’s wake, with the former logging 21.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks during this stretch, with the latter erupting for 27.4 points on 56.6% shooting overall and a ridiculous 47.4% from the perimeter. The duo combined for forty-five points in their team’s insane 153-104 bludgeoning of the Pelicans on Friday, before earning a well-deserved rest in Sunday’s 119-118 defeat against the Wizards. (Sophomore Forward) Jaime Jaquez Jr saved his strongest performance of the campaign for the finale, exploding for a career-high forty-one points on 17-of-25 shooting (68.0%), ten rebounds, and seven assists.
From a betting perspective, the Heat come into yet another play-in at 37-45 straight-up and haven’t been rewarding against the spread either, posting a 39-42-1 mark on that front, parlaying to a net loss of 6.55 units. This has been a streaky team versus the spread over the past two months, covering six games in row from February 26th to March 7th, followed by a 6-game losing streak ATS until the March 19th, when they ripped off a season-best NINE consecutive covers. Granted, they have cooled off a bit of late in finishing the regular season with a 2-3 stretch ATS, which could be a sign of the pendulum swinging away from Spoelstra’s troops. Miami has split their last ten games away from South Beach, though that figure is a bit misleading given that they have covered four of their last five road outings, while riding a streak of FIVE straight covers when receiving points from the oddsmakers, which is the case tonight. As we touched upon earlier, this is a franchise that is no stranger to the play-in tournament, competing in each of the last two editions (2-2 SU), in which they booked passage to the playoffs on the second leg in each instance. Ironically, each of those victories came against the Bulls, whom they bested in a 102-91 affair in 2023 (igniting a shocking run to the Finals), followed by 112-91 victory a year later. With that being said, the Heat have lost three consecutive meetings with Chicago this season, though they were all relatively close contests. Coincidentally, they all occurred after Butler was traded to boot, with the defense suffering the most; Spoelstra’s side shipped 122.0 points per game on 50.0% shooting, including 36.7% from beyond the arc, with 31.7 assists in comparison to forcing 12.0 turnovers. It is clear that the public doesn’t believe that Heat Culture alone will be enough to get them past this stage, as approximately 30% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are residing in South Beach, with a slightly larger share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit (33%). On the injury front, keep an eye on (veteran Swingman) Andrew Wiggins, who was rested in Sunday’s finale due to what was described as a tender hamstring, who has performed well since arriving as part of the Butler trade, averaging 19.0 points on 45.8% shooting, including 36.0% from three, with 4.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.0 block. Looking ahead, if the Heat happen to get the better of the Bulls once again, then they will face the Hawks, who were just embarrassed in Orlando (120-95), in Friday night’s second leg of the play-in tournament, with that winner traveling to Cleveland to face the Cavaliers on Sunday.
Meanwhile, there is a real argument to be made that the only difference over these last seasons between the Bulls (39-43, 9th in Eastern Conference) and their opponent tonight is that the latter has managed to climb out of the play-in tournament to varying degrees of success, while the former…. hasn’t. Indeed, mediocre would be the most appropriate term to describe Chicago during this era in which (Head Coach) Billy Donovan and (General Manager) Arturas Karnisovas invested heavily in an attempt to get out of the proverbial doldrums. However, these last four years has seen the team go exactly 164-164, with only one trip to the playoffs and zero series won along the way. After finishing tenth and ninth in the previous two seasons, the franchise appeared well on their way of doing so once again, and in an attempt to change their fortunes, opted to break up their veteran core and instigate a youth movement. The Bulls parted ways with (former Swingman) DeMar DeRozan in the offseason, only to do the same with (fellow Shooting Guard) Zach Lavine at the trade deadline in a 3-team deal involving the Kings and, netting (sharpshooting Guard) Kevin Huerter, along with (veteran Forward) Zach Collins, (veteran Point Guard) Tre Jones, and a 2025 First Round Pick offering plenty of cap relief and flexibility moving forward. Sitting at 22-33 heading into the All-Star Break, it looked like they were finally bottoming out, but then Donovan managed to turn things around. Since the Break, the Bulls have gone 17-10 and have outscored their opponents by a margin of 4.8 points per game, thanks to an improved attack that has averaged 121.5 points on 48.1% shooting from the field, including 36.5% from beyond the arc, along with 29.6 assists, while the defense has buckled down with 47.2 rebounds. Donovan has long been a point guard whisperer, with the 59-year-old former floor general working his magic on the likes of Coby White and Josh Giddey. Despite being just 24-years old, White (pictured below) has really rounded into a quality Guard in this, his sixth season with the franchise that drafted him seventh overall back in 2019, logging career-highs in points (20.4), field goal percentage (45.3%), and three-pointers made (216). As for Giddey, who was acquired in the offseason in a deal with the Thunder for Alex Caruso, has also shown a wealth of growth, averaging 14.6 points on 46.5% shooting overall, with career-bests in rebounds (8.1), assists (7.2), steals (1.2), and three-point percentage (37.5%). The Australia international has served as the playmaking hub for this second half surge, authoring 21.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists with shooting splits of 50.0/45.7/80.9 since the Break. That play earned some rest as Donovan opted to sit or pull many of his starters in Sunday’s finale at Philadelphia, a 122-102 victory in which five different players scored in double figures, though only one was technically a starter, with Huerter dropping eighteen points on 5-of-7 shooting from three (71.4%) in just over sixteen minutes of action.
From a betting perspective, the Bulls are back in the play-in thanks to a 39-43 record straight-up, though unlike their opponent tonight, they have been rewarding against the spread (43-37-1), equating to a net profit of 2.09 units. This is largely due to a lengthy run of success on that front, for this is a team that is 20-7 versus the spread since returning from the All-Star Break, including 5-2 ATS over their last seven outings, the most recent being an easy cover in that aforementioned blowout of Philadelphia (-8). Chicago is 7-3 over the past ten home games, while matching that ledger in their last ten games in which they have been favored by the oddsmakers. As we covered earlier, Donovan & Co find themselves competing in the play-in for a third consecutive postseason (2-2 SU), winning the first leg before meeting defeat at the hands of the Heat. With that being said, there is reason for optimism that they’ll serve a measure of revenge tonight, for they swept the season series with Miami this year (3-0 SU/ATS). Simply put, the Bulls have had too much firepower for their familiar foes, posting 122.0 points on an efficient 50.0% shooting from the field, including 36.7% from beyond the arc, with a healthy 31.7 assists in comparison to committing just 12.0 turnovers, and getting the better of them on the glass as well (+4.4). Interestingly, White has been made to work for his production in this matchup, putting up a respectable 20.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, but doing so on shooting splits of 39.1/20.0/100.0. However, the same cannot be said of Giddey, who has averaged a triple-double against the Heat with 26.0 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, while netting 58.3% from the field and 8-of-15 from three (53.3%). The public clearly likes what they’ve seen out of the Bulls lately, as a commanding 70% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread have sided with the denizens of the Windy City, with a slightly smaller share of all money being wagered on this front following suit (67%). On the injury front, Donovan has seen the depth in his backcourt dashed, with (veteran Point Guard) Lonzo Ball (wrist) and his younger counterpart, Ayo Dosunmu (shoulder), both out of action for the rest of the season due to various maladies. Looking ahead, if Chicago makes it four in a row over Miami, then they will be off Atlanta to battle the Hawks, which will determine whether they face Cleveland in the first round of the playoffs proper or they book their fishing trip at Lake Erie.