9:30 PM EST, ESPN – Spread: Grizzlies -6.5, Total: 221.5
With one final ticket to be punched to the 2025 NBA Playoffs, the final stage of the Play-In takes place tonight at FedEx Forum with the (10 Seed) Dallas Mavericks battling the (8 Seed) Memphis Grizzlies in an affair featuring two teams that have dealt with a little too much chaos this season. For the Mavericks (39-43, 10th in Western Conference), reaching the NBA Finals for the just the third time in franchise history was supposed to be the start of a prolonged run of success, though that clearly is NOT the path that they’re on as a rebuild appears to be on the cards in Northern Texas. After a getting off to a lukewarm 26-24 start in which it felt like they were merely treading water, Dallas shocked the sporting world in trading the (reigning Scoring Champion) Luka Doncic to the Lakers in an inexplicable deal that saw them net a return of only (veteran Forward) Anthony Davis, (Sophomore Guard) Max Christie, and a 2029 First Round Pick. Indeed, (General Manager) Nico Harrison has been feeling the wrath of both the Mavs fans and his counterparts around the league ever since that moment, citing that he and the new ownership group were concerned over the Slovenian’s conditioning in lieu of what was sure to be a massive contract renewal. On one hand, he traded away a 26-year-old 5-time All-NBA selection who carried his team to the Finals for a package centered around an injury-prone 32-year-old big man, while receiving just one first-rounder in the process. Needless to say, there has been plenty of one-sided deals in the history of the NBA, but this one is easily more criminal than most. Since that seismic shift, the Mavericks have been a shell of the side that was so good last season, finishing on a 13-19 skid in which Davis (pictured below) immediately missed time with a lower body malady, while (All-Star Point Guard) Kyrie Irving, who was a HUGE ingredient for their postseason success last year, was lost for the rest of the campaign due to a torn ACL in his left knee. However, (Head Coach) Jason Kidd has proven capable of maximizing the talent at his disposal, which he managed to do with aplomb in Wednesday night’s stunning 120-106 thumping of the (9 Seed) Kings in the first stage of the Play-In. This may very well have been a one-off performance, but it really was something else from a team that will be entering the offseason with more questions than answers. The Mavericks erupted in the second quarter, outscoring the hosts 44-19 en route to building their largest lead of the night (26), shooting a healthy 49.4% when it was all said and done, while owning sizable edges in free-throws (+13) and turnovers (+8). Davis, finally healthy for the first time since arriving in Dallas, dominated to the tune of twenty-seven points, nine rebounds, and three blocks, while (sharpshooting veteran) Klay Thompson turned back the clock with twenty-three points of his own and 5-of-7 shooting from downtown (71.4%). (Versatile Forward) P.J. Washington who really found a role after being traded midway through the previous campaign as a stretch-4, added seventeen points, nine rebounds, four assists, and a pair of steals.
From a betting perspective, the Mavericks come into tonight’s play-in at 39-43 straight-up, while posting a similar ledger against the spread (38-42-2), parlaying to a net loss of 7.45 units. Wednesday night’s outcome aside, this is a team that has really struggled on that front of late, with just eight covers over their last twenty-four games, though they did cover the line in that aforementioned romp over the Kings with frightening ease despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Dallas has split their last ten games versus the spread away from American Airlines Center, while matching that mark over their past ten games when receiving points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, Kidd’s troops have failed to cover five consecutive contests versus opponents with a SU record above .500, while also riding a skid of five straight losses ATS immediately following a performance in which they scored 100+ points, with both of those proving trends relevant tonight. Looking at this particular matchup, the Mavs have only taken one of their four meetings with the Grizzlies this season, which includes three successive defeats, the latter two of which coming after the Doncic deal. We’ll omit the season finale in Memphis (132-97) in which they opted to sit a number of prominent players, instead focusing on their third encounter, a 122-111 affair on March 7th. With Davis out of action nursing a strained left adductor, the Mavericks started strong in building a 31-22 lead by the end of the first quarter, though the hosts couldn’t hold on for long as they were outscored 33-17 in a decisive final stanza. Dallas struggled mightily on the offensive end, folks, shooting just 38.5% from the field, despite owning significant advantages from downtown (+21) and the charity stripe (+8). Unsurprisingly, they lost this one in the paint, where they were bludgeoned 74-38. (Young Point Guard) Brandon Williams and (veteran Swingman) Naji Marhsall made the most of their extended opportunity, combining for sixty points on 20-of-38 shooting from the floor (52.6%), with the former netting 4-of-8 treys (50.0%) and the latter logging seventeen rebounds. Perhaps the public was moved by their showing in Sacramento, as roughly 69% of all wagers placed upon tonight’s spread are backing the reigning Western Conference Champions, with a slightly smaller share of the total sum of money being wagered on this front following suit to North Texas. On the injury front, apart from the absence of the aforementioned Irving, this is the healthiest that Dallas has been since the trade. Looking ahead, a win tonight at FedEx Forum will book the Mavs’ passage to the playoffs for a fifth time in six years, as they get set to battle the top-seeded Thunder, whom they upset in last year’s Western Semifinals (4-2)
Meanwhile, the Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in Western Conference) may not have been blindsided by the shocking trade of their brightest star, but they too have dealt with plenty chaos in their own right, which ultimately cost (former Head Coach) Taylor Jenkins his job. It was a surprising decision to say the least, as Jenkins oversaw the growth of a young group into one of the more formidable sides in the Association; following his first year on the job, Memphis advanced to three consecutive playoff appearances, highlighted by a trip to the Western Conference Semifinals in 2022 after a 56-26 campaign, their best in nine years. Unfortunately, it was almost as if the team couldn’t handle their own success, particularly (2-time All-Star Point Guard) Ja Morant, whose meteoric rise to stardom has since been stained by a series of controversies. The 25-year-old was suspended multiple times during the 2022-23 season leading to a disappointing finish in the first round where he and his teammates were upset by the (7 Seed) Lakers. Then, in the offseason he was suspended for twenty-five games after flashing a gun during an Instagram live session, and unfortunately remain on the court for less than month following his reinstatement due to a season-ending shoulder injury suffered in practice. As you can imagine, the bears fell to their worst finish six seasons (27-55). Coming into this campaign, it appeared that he and the Grizzlies were playing with a new lease on life, as they raced out to a 36-18 start in which they peaked at second in the standings out west. Unfortunately, the proverbial wheels fell off after the All-Star Break; Memphis finished the season on a disappointing 12-16 skid, going from scoring 123.3 points to 118.8 points per contest, while yielding 115.8 points to 118.9. As they descended down the standings, Jenkins was surprisingly fired from hs post with just nine games to go, with various reports citing his relationship with Morant (pictured below) and how the offensive approach no longer suited the superstar. As such, (lead assistant) Tuomas Iisalo was elevated to keep the ship afloat, which is what has happened as his charges ending the campaign with a 4-5 ledger. If their spirited 121-116 defeat at Golden State in Tuesday night’s Play-In was any indication, they are playing with more energy; the visitors rallied back from a 20-point deficit to nearly upset the heavily favored Warriors, though fell just short of the mark due to trailing in a slew of categories, including three-pointers (-9), free-throws (-8), assists (-7), and most notably, points conceded via turnovers (-15). Iisalo’s troops did shoot 48.8% from the field and battered the Dubs on the glass (50-39), earning a wealth of second-chance opportunities due to sixteen offensive rebounds. But those twenty turnovers were too much to overcome, with Morant coughing the ball up on five occasions, spoiling an otherwise strong performance with twenty-two points on 9-of-18 shooting (50.0%), three rebounds, and three assists. His backcourt partner, Desmond Bane led the team with thirty points on 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%) and 5-of-8 from three (62.5%), while (Rookie Center) Zach Edey used every bit of 7-foot frame to wreak havoc around the rim with fourteen points and SEVENTEEN rebounds, seven of the offensive variety.
From a betting perspective, the Grizzlies come into tonight’s play-in at 48-34 straight-up, but they haven’t been rewarding against the spread in posting a 40-39-3 ledger in that regard, parlaying to a net loss of 2.64 units. As we covered earlier, this is a team that has been in a funk since the All-Star Break, covering just SEVEN of their final TWENTY-NINE games (7-21-1 ATS), though they do come into this affair on a respectable 4-2 run versus the spread, which included that aforementioned narrow loss to the Warriors on Tuesday night (+6.5). Off the top, one would think that a return home would be to their favor in this matchup, but it should be noted that Memphis has covered just TWO of their last ten games played at FedEx Forum, while authoring a 4–6-mark ATS over their past ten outings when favored by the oddsmakers. As a franchise, this is the second time that they have been in the Play-In, hoping that they will advance to the postseason proper just as they did back in 2021. Looking at this particular matchup, these bears have had little trouble dealing with the Mavs this season, winning three of their four meetings, including each of the last three. The Grizzlies have outscored this opponent by an average of 14.0 points per game, shooting 47.3% from the field and 35.0% from beyond the arc, while creating havoc on the opposite end of the hardwood with 17.5 turnovers leading to an average of 8.3 more field goal attempts. Morant featured in two of these affairs, erupting for 31.0 points on 47.1% shooting, 3.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.0 steals. On the injury front, Iisalo knows that he will be without the services of (veteran Forward) Brandon Clarke (knee) and (Rookie Guard) Jaylen Wells (wrist), who are both done for the season, though the condition of Morant’s ankle certainly warrants watching. The explosive dynamo rolled his right ankle stepping on an opponent’s foot with 4:35 left to play in the third quarter, briefly heading to the locker room before eventually returning in the fourth period. Looking ahead, if the Grizzlies manage to change their fate tonight, then they will be off to the playoffs following a one-year hiatus, squaring off with the Thunder, who bested them in all four meetings from the regular season.